Popular Post CRAZY_4_NAZZY Posted July 26, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted July 26, 2019 https://oilersnation.com/2019/07/25/can-canada-reverse-the-trend-of-producing-fewer-nhl-players/ Quote In the past decade, we have seen fewer Canadians playing in the NHL. There’s been a drop of almost 8%, down from 51.8% in 2009 to 43.6% in 2019. But that drop might be much higher in the next ten years if you look at the significant drop in the % of Canadians being drafted by NHL teams. Why is this happening? Before we get to the whys, let’s look at NHL rosters in 2009 compared to 2019. In the 2008/2009 season 804 players played in 10 or more NHL games. It broke down to 482 forwards, 256 defencemen and 66 goalies. There were 259 Canadian forwards (53.7%), 123 defenders (48%) and 35 goalies (53%) and they made up 51.8% of the NHL. Fast forward to 2019 where the league has 31 teams and more players. There was 837 players who played 10+ NHL games. The Canadian breakdown was 217 forwards (43.4%), 119 defenders (44.4%) and 29 goalies (41.4%). They completed 43.6% of the rosters. The biggest drop was in goal, down 11.6% , with a 10.3% drop in forwards and 3.6% dip among defenders. Many believe it is simply the rest of the hockey world catching up. I suspect that is part of it, but I wonder if the emergence of more year-round hockey, combined with the elite hockey leagues which have popped up the past decade, is actually weakening the overall prospect pool of hockey players in Canada. Kids as young as seven years old are playing spring hockey or joining “elite” programs. It is happening more and more, and with it means the best coaches are going to a smaller group of players. The prospect pool is shrinking because of this, and it happens at way too young of an age. The reality is hockey is still considered a late developing sport. The top two or three kids on a team at seven and eight years of age are usually still the best at 14 and 15, and it has been that way for decades. However the kids who are the fourth to 15th best often see massive changes in how they develop over time. Some kids have a growth spurt later. Others are passive at a young age, but become more competitive later. Others aren’t as coordinated at a young age. Are we decreasing the chance more players are playing competitive hockey by making what are essentially all-star teams at young ages? The current model seems to put all the best kids on one team early, and lump the rest in lower tiers. Those lower tiers don’t get to face better players, which usually makes everyone else better, and they might not get the same level of coaching. And the top-tier kids are being asked to play more hockey at a younger age than ever before. That limits their overall athletic development, and potentially leads to burning out and losing their passion for the game. The club teams are grabbing the best coaches and putting them on one staff. Now only the best kids are getting access to the really good coaches. How much is this impacting the overall development of Canada’s prospect pool? I’m not sure, but I think it is very narrow-minded to be placing all the best players on top teams right away. I realize there has always been “A”, “B” and “C” teams, but even the “A” teams had the best players spread out across more teams. INJURIES… Another major concern about early sport specialization is the risk of injury. Many different studies have been done on this subject, and most conclude the risk of injury increases when you expose your child to sport specialization at a young age. “The musculoskeletal risks are predominantly overuse injuries, as up to 50% of all injuries seen in pediatric sports medicine are related to overuse,” wrote Seamus E. Dalton. Sport specialization isn’t new. People were writing about in 2006, but it has become much more prevalent in Canada in the past 15 years. Daryl Nelson has been the head strength and conditioning coach for USA Hockey’s National Team Development program since 2000. He wrote an article in 2017 about sport specialization and how it relates to hockey. He wrote much of it from a training and development mindset. “For young athletes 12 years old and under, it is absolutely essential that a wide array of sports are played. These sports should be as varied as possible and include vastly different environments. For example, young kids should be doing activities in the water, on fields and courts, on snow and ice, and even some air-born sports. Learning in these environments for kids under ten years old builds a foundation on which they can learn more complex skills later on in their development.” Despite studies and articles from experts, more and more parents are feeling pressured or encouraging their children into early sports specialization. They feel their son or daughter will fall behind if they don’t. It leads to more injuries, but I am also curious if it is a factor in weakening Canada’s prospect pool for hockey players. SIGNIFICANT DECREASE AT THE DRAFT… Here is the breakdown of how many players, by country, were drafted since the 2009. YEAR CAN USA SWE FIN RUS SLOV CZE GER OTHER 2009 102 55 24 10 7 5 3 1 3 2010 99 59 20 7 8 2 5 5 5 2011 78 65 28 9 8 4 8 2 9 2012 100 55 22 9 11 0 6 1 7 2013 96 57 23 11 8 2 4 0 10 2014 78 66 27 9 13 1 8 1 7 2015 78 56 19 13 17 5 11 1 11 2016 89 52 25 14 17 0 4 1 9 2017 78 50 27 23 17 2 9 1 10 YEAR CAN USA SWE FIN RUS SLOV CZE GER OTHER 2018 70 56 28 15 19 5 10 4 10 2019 64 58 26 22 26 1 8 2 10 **The other countries and number of drafted players are: Switzerland (24), Denmark (15), Latvia (12), Belarus (11), Norway (7), United Kingdom (6), Austria, Belgium, France and Ukraine (2) and Slovenia, Lithuania, Neatherlands, Australia, Uzbekistan, Jamaica, Thailand and China with one each.*** In 2009 we saw 102 Canadian players drafted, which was 48.8% of the 210 draft picks. 2019 produced 64 Canadian players drafted, for a total of 29.4% of the 217 draft picks. That is a significant drop. The United States, who had the second most players drafted during the same time span, remained virtually the same with 26.1% in 2009 and 26.7% in 2019. Between 2009-2019 Canada has produced 43.8% of the drafted players (932 of 2,127), while the USA had produced 29.4% (629 of 2,127). USA was slightly under their average the past two drafts, while Canada has seen a steady decline since 2016, going from 42.1% to 36% to 32% and down to 29.4% in 2019. Russia and Finland have seen a significant increase in drafted players the past three seasons, while Sweden is virtually the exact the same. Sweden was struggling in the early 2000s and made some changes to their Hockey Federation. WRAP UP Maybe the decline is simply due to other countries producing more players and NHL scouting staffs scouting European players more. USA hockey has more kids playing hockey now, so they might be maintaining simply by having more good players enrolled in hockey. Sweden, however, might be an example to study for Hockey Canada and other associations. In the early 2000s their program was struggling. They realized they had to revamp everything. It didn’t happen overnight, as the changes began in 2002. They convinced Tommy Boustedt, who was coaching Frolunda at the time, to become the director of youth development for the Swedish Ice Hockey Association. Boustedt explained what was ailing their federation and what changes they needed in an interview with Sunaya Sapurji of the Athletic in 2017. A few things really stood out for me. “The problems were at many levels. The recruitment wasn’t good enough. We weren’t retaining enough players to create good programs. We had a lack of development programs for players. Our coaching education wasn’t good enough and that’s because we weren’t producing enough good education materials,” Boustedt explained to Sapurji. The other one was they had coaches and instructors visiting clubs during the season. Sweden is much smaller geographically than Canada, so it would be harder and very expensive to have Hockey Canada have people travel across the country. Earlier this week in a discussion on my radio show I talked about having someone monitor coaches practices. Would it be up to each association? Each province? Or Hockey Canada? I know it wouldn’t be easy, and there would be a cost, but if you improve coaching, then more players are getting better coaching and will become better players, and likely enjoy the game more. Could Hockey Alberta set up a program where they hire a few people to go around the province talking to and overseeing coaches? Watch their practices, and see what they are doing right and what needs to improve so the kids are receiving better coaching and doing better drills and activities. Coaching is crucial at young ages, and if the these new elite clubs are taking the best coaches, then Hockey Canada and each provincial association needs to look at how they can retain or attract some of the best coaches. The other factor is cost, and that is the most difficult one to manage. Hockey is very expensive, and the rising costs force many families out of the game. During the 1960s through to the 1990s kids played various sports, and often the best athletes played hockey as well as other sports. Many gravitated towards hockey as they got older because of how passionate Canadians are about the game. Many of the best athletes were in hockey. But today, the best athletes aren’t only playing hockey. Many are playing basketball, football, tennis and a variety of other sports and games. Many immigrants over the past few decades have become big hockey fans, but they aren’t necessarily playing the game. They, or their children, play other sports, and as we have seen in basketball recently, Canada is developing more and more top-end basketball players. And because of that, more kids will start playing and some might leave hockey because of it. Canada still produces the most hockey players in the world. We are still the best hockey nation, but the numbers have slipped, and other countries are improving. However, while Canada’s numbers have dipped at the draft since 2009, the 2nd and 3rd highest teams, USA and Sweden, haven’t seen a dip in their drafted numbers. As Sweden proved in 2002, a few changes can quickly get things back on track. I’m leery that specializing in hockey at such a young age is going to help Canada’s development long-term. Hockey is still a late developing sport. We should look at other ways to keep developing elite players, while not overlooking the 99% who won’t become elite, and find ways to have more kids playing hockey longer, with better coaching and better competition. Thought it was an interesting read. I've noticed that the Canucks have started to trend away from CHL bound players in recent drafts. Thoughts? 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancaster Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 Just other countries slowly catching up. Germany producing top tier talent was almost unimaginable like 10 years ago. For a while, the US only had players from more northern States, but now they have players coming up from non-traditional markets. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghostsof1915 Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 35 minutes ago, Lancaster said: Just other countries slowly catching up. Germany producing top tier talent was almost unimaginable like 10 years ago. For a while, the US only had players from more northern States, but now they have players coming up from non-traditional markets. Bettmann rubs his hands in glee. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-AJ- Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 I think it's probably much more likely that other countries are catching on and investing more into hockey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shiznak Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 Next year draft - Lafreniere, Holloway, Byfield, Perfetti 2021 draft - Othermann, McTavish, Roy, Clarke 2022 draft - Savoie, Wright, Geekie All of these players are top 5 talents in their draft. I think Hockey Canada’s development is just fine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noble 6 Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 I think one interesting point that this article doesn't delve into is the quality of the players being produced. America and the US National Development Program specifically has produced some top end talent over the last little while (Matthews, Eichel, Hughes, Keller, Connor, McAvoy, etc.). I think they've done a really good job working with their top end players as they expose them to different levels of competition (NCAA and USHL) whereas CHL players are relatively stuck with what they have. It's an all star team, but one whose primary goal is to do what's best for the team still. If Canada were to create a similar program with all star CHL players forming a team, who would they play against? Finland has been producing more high end talent as well (Laine, Barkov, Aho, Heiskanen, Kakko, Kotkaniemi, etc.). They had 3 players taken in the top 5 in the 2016 draft (Puljujarvi and Juolevi haven't done much yet but it still happened). When asked about that at the draft, Juolevi pointed to the personal coaching time as one of the reasons why 3 Fins in the top 5 became a reality. Again, are our top players getting anything similar in the CHL? When you look at how spread out and vast the CHL is, I doubt it. Again, if the best U18 Canadian players were placed on a single team to receive the best coaching and training possible, who would they play against? Playing CHL teams would be the equivalent of the US team playing against USHL teams, but we don't have an equivalent for the NCAA. Would they tour around Europe and play professional teams? Could they stay in North America and compete against AHL teams? I doubt either of those are possibilities and at the end of the day the CHL is still a business not primarily focused on development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6string Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 When I examine the rosters of America's USA Hockey Programs including Tier One US Hockey League, American Developmental Model, Boarding Schools, College and Juniors I am NOW looking at the entire map of continental America. Nearly every state are producing talent unlike a generation ago where it was mostly NE America into the Midwest. I have a friend ( met travelling ) living in Oklahoma working in a program there. Oklahama a late starter in hockey are growing the sport rapidly and are now having some of their young talent moving north to high schools to expand their game. America having a much larger population with plenty of resources will have their chances at being the best in the world, but it has to come through here in Canada for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glug Datt Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 I would agree with most of the article.. my thinking is that it's mostly other countries catching up. I heard around 20 years ago that the eventually the US would overtake Canada as the hockey superpower. I'm not sure about that, but I could see it happening. and while I do take offense to this, I believe it's good for the game that other countries are catching up. look at the women's Olympic hockey - it's a 2 horse race, so much so that there was talk of dropping it from the program. another point is that some of Canada's coaching & development talent is finding work in other countries to help grow their program instead of ours.. I agree that burnout is happening to some kids who might otherwise be allstars - I've seen it. and there seems to be studies supporting the multi sport lifestyle.. I will always promote that to my kids.. I'd also point out that it's not simply the best kids grouping together on these elite teams.. that happened in years past in every community that had enough kids to ice the 'rep' teams. the new trend is the academies, which tend to separate by money first, talent second. a family's financial picture could keep some of the country's best talent from ever being seen by a scout.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 1 hour ago, shiznak said: Next year draft - Lafreniere, Holloway, Byfield, Perfetti 2021 draft - Othermann, McTavish, Roy, Clarke 2022 draft - Savoie, Wright, Geekie All of these players are top 5 talents in their draft. I think Hockey Canada’s development is just fine. Keep telling yourself that. Ultimately you and I have no effect on Hockey Canada's big picture. But if they continue to act like a bunch of old men set in their ways, we will lose to the Swedes and Americans more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob_Zepp Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 3 hours ago, Lancaster said: Just other countries slowly catching up. Germany producing top tier talent was almost unimaginable like 10 years ago. For a while, the US only had players from more northern States, but now they have players coming up from non-traditional markets. THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shiznak Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob.Loblaw said: Keep telling yourself that. Ultimately you and I have no effect on Hockey Canada's big picture. But if they continue to act like a bunch of old men set in their ways, we will lose to the Swedes and Americans more and more. Best vs. Best Canada will win 9 out 10 times in any tournament. Not to mention, Canada can probably ice 2 or 3 teams and still be relatively competitive. Can’t say the same for the rest of the world. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the grinder Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 the real reason why were aren't producing players ,hockey is expensive , equipment , fees ice time extra coaching camps tournaments it cost one parent I know almost 10 grand a year for a 10 year old to play and the cost goes up each year the higher level you play , so that limits a number of players that Canada produces 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownky Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 11 minutes ago, shiznak said: Best vs. Best Canada will win 9 out 10 times in any tournament. Not to mention, Canada can probably ice 2 or 3 teams and still be relatively competitive. Can’t say the same for the rest of the world. That's the kind of thinking that leads to the gains from other nations, which they are clearly making in strides. Further, from young player point of view that I've seen firsthand, the coaching and development at the Bantam/Peewee (and surrounding+) levels is still too politicized. Good kids get left out because [blank] reasons that have nothing to do with hockey or with the kids themselves. It can be as crap as a coaches' dad doesn't like the kids' dad, so no rep for him. I've seen it. No rep? You're done. Further, I also see it where the kids who have the best mobility are never the ones in net. The BEST skater on your team (not necessarily fastest, but 'strongest' - some people on here will understand the differentiation) should be the goalie. Coaches see a strong skater, instantly put them usually centre or one of the forward spots. It's ass backwards; strong skaters make for strong defencemen. Just one of many gripes. Obviously we're doing not bad, we still produce excellent players as a 'nation', but to accept that "we're the best" and ignore the warts that develop over time is simply foolish and will see us be left behind, like England and Cricket... or England and Football(soccer), or England and Rugby... Or England and... you get the picture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadcanucks Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 Don't have the numbers to back up my points, but I think the notion that Canada's development of hockey prospects is trending down is a little overblown. Granted, the proportion of Canadian-born players are down, but I don't believe that's an indictment on the Canada's hockey program. Some of the top US kids are only Americans by their place of birth...for example, the Tkachuk bros could very well be Canadians and would have been born in Winnipeg if the Shenkarow family didn't sell the Jets to the Phoenix group back in the early 90s (their mother is from Winnipeg); the Hughes bros cut their teeth in the Toronto minor hockey programs; Tyler Myers, American-born, and raised in Calgary played in the Canadian hockey system, to name a few off the top of my head. As well, we are seeing a lot more European and American kids playing in the CHL and getting drafted into the NHL (Yakupov, Draisatl, Palmu, Edler, Galchenyuk, Chara, Byfuglien, Jones, Landeskog, etc.). Hockey Canada opening its doors to international players is a good thing...this way, we get to see some of the best international athletes develop their game here in Canada and carry it forward into the NHL. IMO, Hockey Canada is alive and well...the CHL, which I consider to be a major player in Hockey Canada, has been the most desired place for elite junior players in the US and Europe to develop their talent and be drafted into the NHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drakrami Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 Well over 50% are Canadians is a big %, so that is other countries catching up. There are also no more enforcers, and replaced with speedy, agile teenagers. This may be part of the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violator Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 As the make up of the country changes we will see better product of athletes in other sports.We seem to be doing better in things like basketball and soccer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Fanuck Posted July 26, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted July 26, 2019 8 hours ago, CRAZY_4_NAZZY said: https://oilersnation.com/2019/07/25/can-canada-reverse-the-trend-of-producing-fewer-nhl-players/ Thoughts? The definition of irony when an article about the inability to produce/develop players comes from a Coiler based site lol. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Crossbar Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 (edited) It's not just that other countries are catching up. That's one factor, for sure, but there are other factors as well, including the specialization of a select few and year round Spring/Summer for young elite players. Rising costs of playing hockey amid ongoing "tough economic times" is another factor. Hockey has become much more expensive. Soccer has been on the rise and growing in both popularity and participation in the country for years. It's also a much less expensive sport to play. In the last 20 years, society has also shifted away from the popularity of jocks to self-identify in a group to it's now cool to be a geek. Within that shift, I'd argue that participation in sports in general has declined and been replaced by other youth activities in the worlds of tech, social media, comics, video games, podcasts, entertainment, etc, at a younger age. As kids reach 12, 13, their early teens, they're exposed to so much more than hockey. There are more options to invest their time. I don't think it's a crisis but more reflective of growing the game internationally, the economy, popularity and accessibility of other activities, and a cultural shift where hockey isn't the only option. Edited July 26, 2019 by Dr. Crossbar . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shiznak Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 On 7/25/2019 at 11:11 PM, brownky said: That's the kind of thinking that leads to the gains from other nations, which they are clearly making in strides. Further, from young player point of view that I've seen firsthand, the coaching and development at the Bantam/Peewee (and surrounding+) levels is still too politicized. Good kids get left out because [blank] reasons that have nothing to do with hockey or with the kids themselves. It can be as crap as a coaches' dad doesn't like the kids' dad, so no rep for him. I've seen it. No rep? You're done. Further, I also see it where the kids who have the best mobility are never the ones in net. The BEST skater on your team (not necessarily fastest, but 'strongest' - some people on here will understand the differentiation) should be the goalie. Coaches see a strong skater, instantly put them usually centre or one of the forward spots. It's ass backwards; strong skaters make for strong defencemen. Just one of many gripes. Obviously we're doing not bad, we still produce excellent players as a 'nation', but to accept that "we're the best" and ignore the warts that develop over time is simply foolish and will see us be left behind, like England and Cricket... or England and Football(soccer), or England and Rugby... Or England and... you get the picture. I’m not discrediting other nations of producing NHL players. Countries like Denmark, Switzerland, etc certainly have come along way over the years, but to think any of the second tier countries (the US mainly) will soon take over Canada as the top countries of producing NHL players is a fabrication amongst the hockey minds. Yes, stats shown the US is rapidly outnumbering Canada in prospects entering the draft, but what is the percentage of these prospects actually turning out to be quality NHL players by countries? When is comes to producing quality NHL players. Canada is atop of the pyramid and I don’t see that ever changing. As the saying goes quality over quantity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstar Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 There are three main reasons as to why hockey is stagnating in Canada. 1) It's pricey. There's a big reason why hockey is the least diverse sport of the four major sports. It's because you need to be rich to play it at a high level. You can't compete with the kid who is the son of an NHL player, or a prominent politician. That kid gets to play hockey in the Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall. That kid also gets to go to all of the hockey camps. 2) Politics at the minor league level. Many players get snubbed because of the growing trend of politics at the minor hockey level. The amount of power that some hockey parents have is incredible. 3) Lowered participation in sports. With the rise of technology, most kids don't care about sports as much. They are more into video games, or anything of the like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now