[Article] Sutter is not a shutdown centre

[Chris12345]

9 hours ago, Chicken. said:

 

Not sure if posted yet, but anyone that plays teams sports knows good defense starts with good communication.. some evidence here.. mentoring petey.. seems like a good teammate ill keep him. His quality and experience is nice depth too.

It's important but come on. I don't hate him like others but they can pay me to say "good shift Petey". I'll even pat his bum.

Edited August 31, 2019 by Chris12345

[Glug Datt]

16 hours ago, khay said:

Agree. Draisaitl is not a center. Edmonton would not have sucked if Draisaitl put up 50G 100 pts as a 2nd line center behind McDavid's 116 points.

 

As for shutdown line, I feel like it's a strategy for teams with lack of talent. If your team is not talented, then you have not much choice but to employ defensive players and hope to keep the scoring low. Now we have enough talent to not have to ice 2 shutdown lines. I actually think Sutter can still be useful if healthy at both ends of the ice (he scored 20 goals before) but maybe we should keep him on the wing.

 

The article suggests Miller as an option at 3C and I think that might be a great idea. 

 

Ferland-EP-Boeser

Baer-Horvat-Pearson

Eriksson-Miller-Sutter

Virtanen-Beagle-Leivo

Goldobin

Motte

Roussel (IR)

Schaller (trade/minor)

 

 

you don't trade a first for a 3C tho.. JB would never hear the end of the ridicule

[Phil_314]

16 hours ago, khay said:

The article suggests Miller as an option at 3C and I think that might be a great idea. 

 

Ferland-EP-Boeser

Baer-Horvat-Pearson

Eriksson-Miller-Sutter

Agreed, quite like that.  He was almost at 50% in draws which is pretty good.  Hopefully that line could gel though, he's got two of the team's albatross contracts to work with.

If that group meshes and Beagle doesn't bog down Leivo and Jake we could have something good.  

[Pete M]

16 hours ago, Tre Mac said:

Guess the truth hurts for some.

I believe the article said..."chaulk it up to injury"...just need to read between the lines...good read though and interesting analysis.

 

"Perhaps there’s an explanation for Sutter’s struggles last season: health. After all, he missed 56 games and it’s hard to believe he was 100% for the 26 games he actually played." 

Edited August 31, 2019 by Pete M

[Pete M]

11 hours ago, gurn said:

I must have missed the announcement of Brandon's name change?

that's how good he has been...unrememberable? (I'm making up new words now...lol)

[J.I.A.H.N]

12 hours ago, Down by the River said:

The author added another figure at the end of his article (after getting ripped for focusing on an injury-plagued season). The figure shows the Sutter's scoring chances against has been getting steadily worse each year.

 

What it doesn't show is things like whether he is being asked to have more defensive zone starts, quality of competition, etc. Either the author doesn't know much about analytics, or it is a disingenuous attempt to offer evidence that Sutter is on the decline. Maybe it is both.

 

Sick of the Kwantlen drop-outs at Canucks Army and PITB that give analytics a bad name by using it to serve their ideology rather than dictate their opinion.

I agree with your defense of Sutter somewhat

 

But, there  is some truth to the posters point

Yes, he was injured last year, and the year before, and the year before that...kind of argument 

BUT !

He doesn't get a get out of jail free card...…...

The truth, IMO is some where in the middle

Don't you think?

I mean the analytics don't lie, they just don't make a complete picture, as you say

Truthfully, I thing he can still contribute here

How much is the question

 

In saying that...……….he is not the first guy I would want gone...….nor the second for that matter

[JeremyCuddles]

Nick Bonino's 5 on 5 DZ starts vs scoring chances is better than Sutter's? Almost like Nashville is a better team with a far better D core. I don't mind analytics but they require context and the eye test to all work together. Imagine Bonino trying to play 5 on 5 against the other team's best scorers when his linemates are Granlund and Eriksson backed up by d-men like Pouliot, Del Zotto and Gudbranson. I am not gonna sit here and say he is worth his contract, cause he's not, but I think this is unnecessary and just an excuse to hate on either Sutter or Benning or both. Sutter's sample size was also very low at just 26 games at the beginning of the season.

Edited August 31, 2019 by N7Nucks

[Nurnge]

After reading everybody's  posts and than rereading the article other than getting everybody talking in the summer not sure "exactly" who it was meant to be insulting ? Benning for his contract , the coaches for his deployment or maybe his fault for getting injured "I remember one of his qualities when he was signed was that he never missed games " . He will not play on the pp will always start the PK .  Will not have many faceoffs in the offensive end after an icing against the opponents bottom 6 But will mostly take faceoffs after an icing in the Canucks end against the opponents best . Looking forward to seeing what he can do if he can stay healthy and have an improved Jake on one side  [ yes I think he just keeps getting better every year ] and Baertschi or Ferland on the other wing  . Along with a defence core that can get the puck out of there own end . Not expecting 20 goals from him but 12 to 15 would be welcome  

[JeremyCuddles]

2 minutes ago, Nurnge said:

After reading everybody's  posts and than rereading the article other than getting everybody talking in the summer not sure "exactly" who it was meant to be insulting ? Benning for his contract , the coaches for his deployment or maybe his fault for getting injured "I remember one of his qualities when he was signed was that he never missed games " . He will not play on the pp will always start the PK .  Will not have many faceoffs in the offensive end after an icing against the opponents bottom 6 But will mostly take faceoffs after an icing in the Canucks end against the opponents best . Looking forward to seeing what he can do if he can stay healthy and have an improved Jake on one side  [ yes I think he just keeps getting better every year ] and Baertschi or Ferland on the other wing  . Along with a defence core that can get the puck out of there own end . Not expecting 20 goals from him but 12 to 15 would be welcome  

It'll be nice to see what he can do with better linemates. Adding Ferland, Miller and a full year of Pearson means the guys that were once in the top 6 move down to where they belong in the bottom 6. Baer Sutter and Virtanen could do some real damage on both ends of the ice as a 3rd line. It also means that Pettersson doesn't need to be protected as much since he'll hopefully have one of Miller or Ferland there with him. Miller is good defensively and Ferland is at least decent defensively, at least better than Boeser and Goldy were. Plus we have a better defense.

 

I just feel like the article is nothing but a smear job on Sutter and/or Benning and wasn't necessary. There are so many positive things to be looking forward to this season and they took the time to crap on a guy that played fewer than 30 games last season.

[Hairy Kneel]

13 hours ago, Drakrami said:

Not surprised.

Whenever we have crappy players who can't score goals, people on this board coin them into defensive specialists. Sutter, Eriksson, Gaunce, Granlund, Beagle. Supposedly with this many elite defensive players, our team still sucks defensively. 

Crappy defensemen didn't help either.

[spur1]

11 hours ago, gurn said:

I must have missed the announcement of Brandon's name change?

At least it is only a name change! 

[Sbriggs]

12 hours ago, gurn said:

I must have missed the announcement of Brandon's name change?

opps my bad sorry

[mll]

25 minutes ago, N7Nucks said:

It'll be nice to see what he can do with better linemates. Adding Ferland, Miller and a full year of Pearson means the guys that were once in the top 6 move down to where they belong in the bottom 6. Baer Sutter and Virtanen could do some real damage on both ends of the ice as a 3rd line. It also means that Pettersson doesn't need to be protected as much since he'll hopefully have one of Miller or Ferland there with him. Miller is good defensively and Ferland is at least decent defensively, at least better than Boeser and Goldy were. Plus we have a better defense.

 

I just feel like the article is nothing but a smear job on Sutter and/or Benning and wasn't necessary. There are so many positive things to be looking forward to this season and they took the time to crap on a guy that played fewer than 30 games last season.

 

Small sample but the Baer-Sutter-Virtanen line got buried last season - there was no chemistry.  They are too different style of players.  Leivo is likely a better fit than Baertschi who should be traded to a team where he fits their style of play better.  When he got traded from Calgary he talked of how the Flames were a lot about the forecheck under Hartley while his game suits better a possession team - he's a creative give-and-go player.  

[Silky mitts]

Well yea he sucks lol

[Silky mitts]

Can’t wait till he’s off the team . 

[mll]

19 hours ago, Team Bagues said:

The only useful part of that article is whether or not the Canucks need two shutdown lines. As far as that goes, the successful teams these days don't seem to emply a shut-down line of any kind in the traditional sense - 3rd and 4th lines for 3rd and 4th round teams drive play, pressure the opposition and score goals to chip in.

 

Analytics is for failed GMs and basement dwellers (see nee Florida and Arizone, presently Toronto). You don't hear too much about analicktick darlings in the 3 and 4th round of the playoffs.

 

Smart GMs see it as information, but real hockey trumps 85% of the time.

 

There are too many compounding variables in hockey to make cause and effect statistics reliable for hockey.

 

It works for baseball, since most plays are cause and effect - 1 person affecting 1 person affecting an outcome.

 

Hockey has 12 variables (players) plus referees on the ice at any given time - most statistics can't handle this type of math. When considering such a high number of variables your starting to get in to the mad science of climate change, and we all know how messed up that is.

 

McPhee believes that analytics is reliable - from June a year ago after they've reached the finals :

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/ed-graney/gm-mcphee-puts-trust-in-data-as-he-builds-golden-knights/

 

“Certainly, different environments can help a player and playing with different people can help a player, but you really have to pay attention to the story that the data is telling you, because it’s reliable,” McPhee said. “We’ve worked with it long enough now. It’s harder than in some other sports, but it’s pretty darn reliable.

 

“We’re finally there (with analytics). I’d rather rely on the science now than just opinion. We understand that our instincts matter, our experience matters, but that data has become really reliable.”

 

----

Washington used analytics to adjust their strategy and finally win a Cup.  The Capitals used to have one of the best Corsi's in the league - they had really high volume of shots.  They were the team with the lowest number of shots the season they won.

 

Trotz talked of how they focused on quality of shots rather than just continuing to throw pucks on net. They did an in-depth analysis to figure out what kind of plays are more challenging for goalies to stop and focused on creating scoring chances rather than volume.

 

McPhee says a lot of the information available to the public is useless.  Those advanced stats websites use algorithms to come up with their models.

 

Capitals beat writer Khurshudyan citing Trotz gave the example that if the goalie has the post sealed and all you are doing is whacking at the goalie's pads that's not a high danger scoring chance - although you are at the net there's very little chance that it goes in.  Location is not sufficient to determine whether it's a high danger scoring chance or not.   Each shot and situation has to be categorised individually and can't be captured through modelling.  On ice tracking is coming soon though.

 

 

[aGENT]

48 minutes ago, mll said:

 

McPhee believes that analytics is reliable - from June a year ago after they've reached the finals :

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/ed-graney/gm-mcphee-puts-trust-in-data-as-he-builds-golden-knights/

 

“Certainly, different environments can help a player and playing with different people can help a player, but you really have to pay attention to the story that the data is telling you, because it’s reliable,” McPhee said. “We’ve worked with it long enough now. It’s harder than in some other sports, but it’s pretty darn reliable.

 

“We’re finally there (with analytics). I’d rather rely on the science now than just opinion. We understand that our instincts matter, our experience matters, but that data has become really reliable.”

 

----

Washington used analytics to adjust their strategy and finally win a Cup.  The Capitals used to have one of the best Corsi's in the league - they had really high volume of shots.  They were the team with the lowest number of shots the season they won.

 

Trotz talked of how they focused on quality of shots rather than just continuing to throw pucks on net. They did an in-depth analysis to figure out what kind of plays are more challenging for goalies to stop and focused on creating scoring chances rather than volume.

 

McPhee says a lot of the information available to the public is useless.  Those advanced stats websites use algorithms to come up with their models.

 

Capitals beat writer Khurshudyan citing Trotz gave the example that if the goalie has the post sealed and all you are doing is whacking at the goalie's pads that's not a high danger scoring chance - although you are at the net there's very little chance that it goes in.  Location is not sufficient to determine whether it's a high danger scoring chance or not.   Each shot and situation has to be categorised individually and can't be captured through modelling.  On ice tracking is coming soon though.

 

 

Analytics are just fine (with appropriate context).

 

Analysts and the quality of their analysis however can vary WIDELY.

[JeremyCuddles]

1 hour ago, mll said:

 

Small sample but the Baer-Sutter-Virtanen line got buried last season - there was no chemistry.  They are too different style of players.  Leivo is likely a better fit than Baertschi who should be traded to a team where he fits their style of play better.  When he got traded from Calgary he talked of how the Flames were a lot about the forecheck under Hartley while his game suits better a possession team - he's a creative give-and-go player.  

Yeah, that's true. Health limits the sample size. I'd rather see Pearson or Motte with them instead of Leivo. Motte Sutter and Virtanen were a good trio to start last season. Offense wasn't really there but I think they were starting to get some chemistry before Sutter went down. Guess that limits Baer to a top 6 spot with Bo or Petey. If he can't work with Sutter he likely won't work with Beagle.

[mephnick]

3 hours ago, Pete M said:

I believe the article said..."chaulk it up to injury"...just need to read between the lines...good read though and interesting analysis.

 

"Perhaps there’s an explanation for Sutter’s struggles last season: health. After all, he missed 56 games and it’s hard to believe he was 100% for the 26 games he actually played." 

Then don't base an article with a clickbait headline on that season?

 

It's still poor journalism whether he gives himself an out or not.

[Down by the River]

2 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

I agree with your defense of Sutter somewhat

 

But, there  is some truth to the posters point

Yes, he was injured last year, and the year before, and the year before that...kind of argument 

BUT !

He doesn't get a get out of jail free card...…...

The truth, IMO is some where in the middle

Don't you think?

I mean the analytics don't lie, they just don't make a complete picture, as you say

Truthfully, I thing he can still contribute here

How much is the question

 

In saying that...……….he is not the first guy I would want gone...….nor the second for that matter

I'm not at all a fan of the Sutter signing. But I try to separate the signing from the player. I'm still going to cheer for his success even though I don't think he is as valuable to the team as his cap hit would imply.