Why the Jake Hate????

[Provost]

38 minutes ago, CptCanuck16 said:

If his success in December was an anomaly and now he's regressing back to his former trajectory than I don't see a problem with that because his former trajectory was one of continuous improvement year over year! Who in their right mind complains about a young player who continues to improve?  You're right about the sample size though. Again I'll use the Sedins as an example, if you plot their performance over the first 4 years of their career the data suggests that their potential was to be 30-40 point players throughout their career.  As we now know that isn't what happened.  Like people do, they got better at their job as they gained more experience. Replot Jake's performance chart again when he's 25 and then again when he's 28 and come back to us with your conclusions once you have that as an adequate sample size. Right now it's just too early to tell. All we know for sure is that Jake continues to improve year over year.  The sample size is just too small to definitively draw any conclusions about his potential. Right now the sky is the limit.

You complain if he gets paid for performance he hasn't actually earned.  No one complains about having Virtanen at $2.5 million on their team because that is paying his actual performance, a lot of people can complain about him at $4.0 million plus due to an inflated arbitration award because that is paying for a statistical blip and imagined future performance that may never materialize.  That is especially the case when retaining him at that price tag could cost you significant depth next season.

His trajectory has been slowly improving over time and that is totally fine.  He went from being a 4th line winger to an average 3rd line winger in terms of production... though he is still a negative on the defensive side which you expect more of from a bottom six guy.  You can't say the sky is the limit without also saying the gutter is also the floor on him, each extreme is less likely than his trajectory indicates.  Some players exceed it and some are below it.  What I have said and keep saying, is Jake has not done that yet.  The numbers don't actually show him suddenly "arriving" like folks keep suggesting.  If he gets back onto his December pace and sustains that for the rest of the season, you have some argument to say he is developing more than what his trajectory up to now has shown.  It hasn't happened yet and you don't get to pretend it is inevitable, especially when he has already fallen off that pace even with averaging a minute more per game in January than December.

A Sedin comparison is nonsense because they did have a huge jump and by January of their 4th season were PPG game players over a long stretch... at similar ages there were doing a lot better than Jake is, and were also defensively good while getting 3rd line minutes.   Jakes got 13, 20, 25 points in his first three seasons (ignoring his AHL season)  The Sedins were almost double that.  They outperformed their initial trajectory and there were some indications that they could do that, their work ethic was unmatched and kept improving.  They were an exception in that they blossomed, taking the unusual exceptions and assuming it is the rule and absolutely applies to Jake is based on fantasy and highly against the odds.  With that logic you should throw money at Tyler Motte because he could possibly become the next Ovechkin.

Virtanen on the other hand after 4 years in the league, showed up to camp out of shape and publicly earned the ire of his coach, and has not had a single long stretch of greatly improved play... that is certainly a warning sign that he isn't doing everything he can to keep getting better and could stall or regress.

Looking at objective reality and not being emotional about a player isn't trashing them.  Everyone wants him to be what he has the potential to be, but he has earned his doubters.

Edited January 18, 2020 by Provost

[Provost]

5 hours ago, oldnews said:

This is an interesting point, one I don't see an honest, realistic response to - rather an evasion.

 

Miller at age 21

10 goals, 13 assists, 23 pts,  20 at event strength,  58 games played, 52.3% ozone starts, 12:42 ice time.

Virtanen at age 21

10 goals, 10 assists, all 20 at even strength, 75 games played, 44.8% ozone starts, 11:59 ice time.

 

It's actually a pretty interesting comparison.  Miller played with Hayes and Hagelin, a pair of guys that had 45 and 35 pts respectively - with higher ozone/different situational usage than Virtanen, so I think it's an interesting trade off between the extra 17 games Virtanen played, and the situational advantage Miller had.

 

Miller at 22

22 goals, 21 assists, 82 games, 15:02 ice time, 57.8% ozone starts, playing with Stepan and Zuccarello.   Those two lead the Rangers in scoring (61 and 58 pts) on a team that was well coached (AV) and had 101 pts

Jake at 22

15 goals, 10 assists, 70 games, 14:49 ice time, 45.4% ozone starts, playing primarily with Sutter and Roussel (who were both injured for long stretches), on a team that struggled to maintain .500 hockey (81 pts on the season).

Miller understandably had the better at-22-yrs-of-age season, but the performed in a significantly different context.

 

My caution would be to avoid underestimating players like this prematurely. ie Neiderreiter - who was dealt at age 20, after 64 NHL games in which he scored 2 goals and 1 assist.  Those numbers climbed to comparable to Miller's at 21, 22 - and then he continued to uptick to a 57 pt player at age 24.  

Worth asking what kind of "mean" had been set by age 22....but in any event, an interesting comparison you suggest in looking at MIller and Virtanen.

Only in your world can you equate 58 games to 75 games, and then 43 points to 25 points as really being equivalent.

By all means, suggest to the NHL that Virtanen gets to play 30% more games per season than the rest of the league so his numbers can be comparable...  Or just credit him with two goals on the scoreboard every time he puts it in the net... because it is pretty much the same thing.

... or (as always) cherry pick and neglect to point out his 23 year old season when was was getting a startling low 43.7% oZone starts and being used primarily defensively (lower than Jake has ever had in his career) and Miller managed to score 56 points.... something Jake is not close to even being on pace for even while enjoying one of the highest oZone start % on the team at 54.9%

 

... or fail to point out that Miller was a massive +17 when having those defensive deployments and racking up points, while Jake was also badly on the negative side defensively as well as not putting up offence... and is still a negative player and defensive liability even when starting most often in the oZone (which appears to be the only stat you really seem to put any stock into even though it is deeply flawed in missing the bulk of the shifts that start on the fly).

There is no comparison statistically between the two players, nor is there any stylistically.  Even if there was, there is no reason to correlate them as having similar trajectories.

Edited January 18, 2020 by Provost

[alt kilgore]

6 minutes ago, Provost said:

Looking at objective reality and not being emotional about a player isn't trashing them.  Everyone wants him to be what he has the potential to be, but he has earned his doubters.

I agree.  Its tough to have arguments based on reality in here sometimes without being called a 'bad' fan.

I also agree that he has been making slow steady progress. Glass half full.  But its been painfully slow. So full of false starts and regressions. I still think he doesn't have the same hockey smarts on the ice as the more elite players possess. I don't know if he can develop that aspect or not. Quick decision making with the puck, and not only that but accurate decision making. A lot of rushes get snuffed because of him making a bad pass or losing the puck in a puck battle. His speed is his saviour. As long as he can either get off a shot, or make a pass to a team mate before he loses it, when in the O zone its all good.

 

I think confidence does wonders though.  Chicken and the egg. Scoring and confidence, which comes first?  Doesn't really matter, I just hope he continues to push himself using his skating as the ability to work with and produce. No reason to think he won't.  But I also think, because of the level of his on ice anticipation and hockey smarts, he still has to prove he deserves top line minutes. And actually any player on any top line in the league has to prove that every game too. If he continues to be consistent the rest of this season, maybe even reaching 20 goals, I'll be convinced he's here to stay. Sorry, but based on his previous 4 years, even though I'm stoked at his play now, he has more to prove.

[CptCanuck16]

I hope this turns into another "Burrows, Do We Really Need Him" thread and people are still posting in it 3 years from now when Jake's putting up 30 goals per season and again in 12 years when the organization is inducting him into the ring of honour. 

[Provost]

4 minutes ago, CptCanuck16 said:

I hope this turns into another "Burrows, Do We Really Need Him" thread and people are still posting in it 3 years from now when Jake's putting up 30 goals per season and again in 12 years when the organization is inducting him into the ring of honour. 

Everyone hopes that.
 

[CptCanuck16]

8 minutes ago, kilgore said:

I agree.  Its tough to have arguments based on reality in here sometimes without being called a 'bad' fan.

I also agree that he has been making slow steady progress. Glass half full.  But its been painfully slow. So full of false starts and regressions. I still think he doesn't have the same hockey smarts on the ice as the more elite players possess. I don't know if he can develop that aspect or not. Quick decision making with the puck, and not only that but accurate decision making. A lot of rushes get snuffed because of him making a bad pass or losing the puck in a puck battle. His speed is his saviour. As long as he can either get off a shot, or make a pass to a team mate before he loses it, when in the O zone its all good.

 

I think confidence does wonders though.  Chicken and the egg. Scoring and confidence, which comes first?  Doesn't really matter, I just hope he continues to push himself using his skating as the ability to work with and produce. No reason to think he won't.  But I also think, because of the level of his on ice anticipation and hockey smarts, he still has to prove he deserves top line minutes. And actually any player on any top line in the league has to prove that every game too. If he continues to be consistent the rest of this season, maybe even reaching 20 goals, I'll be convinced he's here to stay. Sorry, but based on his previous 4 years, even though I'm stoked at his play now, he has more to prove.

Agreed that he makes some dumb plays sometimes that makes one think he is unaware or slow thinking in his decision making. He just needs to find his niche. I see him most effective as an Anson Carter type of player when he was with the twins.  Use your speed to crash the net and look to pound in a rebound. Leave the pretty plays to the skill guys like Pettersson. Jake just needs to figure out how to use his strengths and that comes with experience and maturity. 

 

Regarding bad passes I think most of the team does that because of the system they play. When there is a player within 10ft  its easy to make a quick crisp pass. When everyone is 100ft away you have to slow, look around, and then really thread the pass. Some guys have the ability to do that (Hughes, Pettersson), others don't and end up coughing up the puck often or making a desperation pass. 

[CptCanuck16]

6 minutes ago, Provost said:

Everyone hopes that.
 

Except you. You want to trade him for a crapshoot draft pick. 

[Provost]

12 minutes ago, kilgore said:

I agree.  Its tough to have arguments based on reality in here sometimes without being called a 'bad' fan.

I also agree that he has been making slow steady progress. Glass half full.  But its been painfully slow. So full of false starts and regressions. I still think he doesn't have the same hockey smarts on the ice as the more elite players possess. I don't know if he can develop that aspect or not. Quick decision making with the puck, and not only that but accurate decision making. A lot of rushes get snuffed because of him making a bad pass or losing the puck in a puck battle. His speed is his saviour. As long as he can either get off a shot, or make a pass to a team mate before he loses it, when in the O zone its all good.

 

I think confidence does wonders though.  Chicken and the egg. Scoring and confidence, which comes first?  Doesn't really matter, I just hope he continues to push himself using his skating as the ability to work with and produce. No reason to think he won't.  But I also think, because of the level of his on ice anticipation and hockey smarts, he still has to prove he deserves top line minutes. And actually any player on any top line in the league has to prove that every game too. If he continues to be consistent the rest of this season, maybe even reaching 20 goals, I'll be convinced he's here to stay. Sorry, but based on his previous 4 years, even though I'm stoked at his play now, he has more to prove.

I hope he suddenly blossoms, he certainly seems to the eye to be a little more engaged now... really noticeable when Roussel came back and started playing with him.  I think it is hard to take games off when you are playing on a line with a guy like that.
 

 

[oldnews]

3 hours ago, Provost said:

 

can't help yourself, eh.  Again....

 

On 1/17/2020 at 2:30 PM, oldnews said:

I can't be bothered with all due respect - it's probably better for everyone if you and I don't bother to engage each other.

 

If I need to put you on ignore, let me know. 

 

Edited January 19, 2020 by oldnews

[oldnews]

2 hours ago, CptCanuck16 said:

Except you. You want to trade him for a crapshoot draft pick. 

The board is literally littered with his Virtanen proposals.

My favorite was the one with Boeser and Zucker as the principals. 

Imagine how good this team would be right now if they only had Zucker's 12 goals and 24 pts - with 4 x 5.5 left on his deal.  #proper-rebuild. 

Maybe Zucker will 'return to the mean' -  as a 21 goal scorer! (scored more than 22 goals once in his career.  perfect target to unload Boeser for!)

Edited January 19, 2020 by oldnews

[oldnews]

2 hours ago, kilgore said:

I agree.  Its tough to have arguments based on reality in here sometimes without being called a 'bad' fan.

 

I'm curious - has anyone actually ever called you a "bad fan"? 

[Provost]

15 minutes ago, oldnews said:

The board is literally littered with his Virtanen proposals.

My favorite was the one with Boeser and Zucker as the principals. 

Imagine how good this team would be right now if they only had Zucker's 12 goals and 24 pts - with 4 x 5.5 left on his deal.  #proper-rebuild. 

Maybe Zucker will 'return to the mean' -  as a 21 goal scorer! (scored more than 22 goals once in his career.  perfect target to unload Boeser for!)

Please quote the trade where I suggested Boeser for Zucker.  Try not to edit it to fit your fake arguments as you often do.

 

I spent a number rod posts literally laughing at the Minny suggestion. Of trading the 2 players one for one.

 

I do recall saying that if Boeser’s contract demands were in the $7-8 million range that was being reported, Mik y was welcome to him for a good package in return.

[oldnews]

3 minutes ago, Provost said:

Please quote the trade where I suggested Boeser for Zucker. 

On 9/5/2019 at 9:10 AM, Provost said:

It is getting late enough to have fun spitballing potential trade scenarios for these unsigned top RFAs, as the discussions must have taken place internally on teams.

 

Boeser

Virtanen

 

for

 

Zucker

Kaprisov

[oldnews]

5 hours ago, riffraff said:

Is this where I told you so happens?

I think that one would be the Sunday Morning Confessional thread at the Church of V.

Check it out - it's hilarious.

[Provost]

20 minutes ago, oldnews said:

 

 

... aside from you editing the actual post, that was in the context of discussions about Boeser having turned down huge contract offers and if the talk at the time was true of him holding out and costing North of $8 million on a medium to long term deal.

 

I can go back and necro a bunch of posts where I would literally laugh at the reported trade suggestion by Minny of Boeser for Zucker straight up.

 

Nice try though, I guess you ran out of actual arguments about the topic at hand?

Edited January 19, 2020 by Provost

[oldnews]

2 minutes ago, Provost said:

that was in the context of discussions about Boeser having turned down huge contract offers and if the talk at the time was true of him holding out and costing North of $8 million on a medium to long term deal.

 

On 1/17/2020 at 2:30 PM, oldnews said:

I can't be bothered with all due respect - it's probably better for everyone if you and I don't bother to engage each other.

 

If I need to put you on ignore, let me know. 

 

[Provost]

38 minutes ago, oldnews said:

 

 

And yet you keep commenting on posts referring to me and spending hours searching and reacting to old posts of mine.

 

I am flattered by your obsession but I don’t  reciprocate the feelings.

[oldnews]

3 minutes ago, Provost said:

And yet you keep commenting on posts referring to me and spending hours searching and reacting to old posts of mine.

 

I am flattered by your obsession but I don’t  reciprocate the feelings.

How many times have you whined about your posts being responded to?

Countless. 

Probably as many times as you've traded Virtanen.

And yet you keep initiationg - as you have again, ironically, in this thread.

Never take the offer of the ignore list - countless protests about being responded to - and continue to engage/chirp. 

I'll give you the frst and last chirps - fill your boots - flatter yourself as much as you need - then, your're welcome to try to move on.

 

[73 Percent]

Another

Great

Game

 

I'm shotgunning for that assist.

 

 

Edited January 19, 2020 by 73 Percent

[Wanless]

@Provost

 

Blip?