What would you do? (Discussion)

[ItTakesAnArmy]

21 hours ago, BigTramFan said:

I am not sure why you are concerned with performance bonuses. These won’t have any major impact on the cap for this year, and it certainly isn’t worse next year as you suggest.

 

Firstly, the perf bonuses are well below the 7.5% cushion (about $6m) allowable over the $81.5m cap, so these do not affect the cap this year or next year.

Secondly, the recapture penalty is no worse next year than it is this year either.

 

We are nowhere near cap hell!

 

I agree we could stand to lose some large contracts such as Eriksson and Baer, which for their cost are not able to contribute much to the team from the press box and from Utica. I believe Baer might be traded near the TDL to a contender for depth. LE is virtually untradeable. I would support moving him to Utica to try and see if he might void his contract by not reporting. However, even if we can’t move any of these contracts before next season, we are not in cap trouble.

 

Let me show you how the team could structured for next season without losing Baer or Eriksson and still be cap compliant...

 

Miller Pettersson Boeser

Pearson Horvat Ferland

Roussel Gaudette Virtanen

Motte Beagle Sutter

(Leivo)

 

Edler Myers 

Hughes Tryamkin

Benn Stecher

(Juolevi)

 

Markstrom

Demko 

 

EST. TOTAL CAP = $79.5m

Including all recapture penalties and buried contracts

 

This assumes:

Baer and Eriksson buried in Utica

Schaller walks

 

This assumes resigning:

Markstrom $5m

Tryamkin $2.75m

Stecher $2.75m

Gaudette $1.5m

Leivo $1.5m

Virtanen $1.5m

Motte $1.1m

 

I have also assumed that Tanev will walk or be traded at the TDL, but if he has a good season then they may offer him a 2 year x $4m contract. Resigning Tanev would be contingent on either missing out on Tryamkin, or on getting Tryamkin and trading a contract such as Baer’s which is currently taking up $2.29m in cap space.

 

A bunch of other contracts end in 2021, so we will have space to resign Pettersson and bring in high end prospects such as Podz. This team is not mismanaged. It is actually very nicely constructed from a salary cap perspective.

Between Sven and Eriksson the team can bury only a little over 2 million, Pettersson, Hughes and Gaudette could get their bonuses equaling an additional 4.2 mil, Luongo stil will have his 3+ mil no matter what and the same with Spooner's million.

 

Eriksson isn't likely to drop 8 million just because it is good for the Canucks, he may be tradable if the Canucks retain half his salary for the 2021/2022 season.

 

The eight players, not counting Tryamkin, should get at least qualifying offers, well maybe not to bring the team under the cap, that means a 10% increase. The performance bonuses reduce next year's cap now. If the bonuses are met then the Canucks cap next year is reduced by the amount of the bonus.

 

Even without Sven and Eriksson the team will be over the cap just signing 5 of the eight/nine players because the cap will be up to 4 million less than maximum allowed.

 

Your 79.4 mil cap next year is possible but not likely..

 

Your calculation assumes, Tanev's 4+ mil, Spooner's mil, no bonuses paid out. The current cap number does not take into account the 4+ mil in bonuses. Cup winning teams have had to jettison players because of bonuses, the Canucks may be one of the very few bottom third of the league teams to have to jettison players because of cap problems.

 

With the contracts the team has there is almost no way to spin this as a good thing especially as the management is currently signing contracts that will strangle the team over the next 3 or 4 years.

 

Horvat, Boeser, Pettersson, Hughes, Miller, are all going to need new deals and I don't expect Horvat to settle for 7 mil, Boeser for 8, Pettersson (if the real deal) less than 9 or Hughes 7 and Miller might or might not be around but then there is still Tryamkin if he is good.

 

In two/three years;

Pettersson - 9 mil (maybe a bridge deal in the 8 range)

Boeser - 9 mil (not much higher)

Horvat - 10 mil (should be in the 8 range but, heart and soul) the 4th year actually.

Hughes - could be a 3 yr bridge for less, 6 mil

Demko - 3.5 mil

Stecher - 4 mil  - Gudbrason was paid more for less

Tryamkin - 4.5 mil - Gudbrason was paid more for a lot less, Tryamkin sticks up for his team mates, did that more than Gudbranson did altogether.

Myers - 6 mil

Markstrom - 6 mil (I think traded before that, maybe this TDL)

Podkolzin - rookie max - 3+mil, maybe a bridge deal like Boeser's - 6+mil

Virtanen - 4.5 mil

Olli Julievi - 0

Sutter gone

Beagle - 3 mil

Miller - 5.25 mil

Ferland - 3.5 mil.

Rousell - 3 mil

Gaudette - 1.9 mil

 

Luongo - 3 mil

 

Possible

Sven and Eriksson, - 10 mil cap hit, if buried - 7.75+ mil cap hit

 

Concussions are a big concern now and the Canucks seem to be collecting players that have experienced repeated "upper body injuries".

Funny thing about concussion symptoms, they can manifest as the flu or other mild issues.

Players to watch are Ferland, Miller, Baerstchi, Beagle, Rousell, these are NHL reported dingers, the AHL and junior don't have as much recorded detail for injuries at all

 

 

[BigTramFan]

12 hours ago, ItTakesAnArmy said:

Between Sven and Eriksson the team can bury only a little over 2 million, Pettersson, Hughes and Gaudette could get their bonuses equaling an additional 4.2 mil, Luongo stil will have his 3+ mil no matter what and the same with Spooner's million.

 

Eriksson isn't likely to drop 8 million just because it is good for the Canucks, he may be tradable if the Canucks retain half his salary for the 2021/2022 season.

 

The eight players, not counting Tryamkin, should get at least qualifying offers, well maybe not to bring the team under the cap, that means a 10% increase. The performance bonuses reduce next year's cap now. If the bonuses are met then the Canucks cap next year is reduced by the amount of the bonus.

 

Even without Sven and Eriksson the team will be over the cap just signing 5 of the eight/nine players because the cap will be up to 4 million less than maximum allowed.

 

Your 79.4 mil cap next year is possible but not likely..

 

Your calculation assumes, Tanev's 4+ mil, Spooner's mil, no bonuses paid out. The current cap number does not take into account the 4+ mil in bonuses. Cup winning teams have had to jettison players because of bonuses, the Canucks may be one of the very few bottom third of the league teams to have to jettison players because of cap problems.

 

With the contracts the team has there is almost no way to spin this as a good thing especially as the management is currently signing contracts that will strangle the team over the next 3 or 4 years.

 

Horvat, Boeser, Pettersson, Hughes, Miller, are all going to need new deals and I don't expect Horvat to settle for 7 mil, Boeser for 8, Pettersson (if the real deal) less than 9 or Hughes 7 and Miller might or might not be around but then there is still Tryamkin if he is good.

 

In two/three years;

Pettersson - 9 mil (maybe a bridge deal in the 8 range)

Boeser - 9 mil (not much higher)

Horvat - 10 mil (should be in the 8 range but, heart and soul) the 4th year actually.

Hughes - could be a 3 yr bridge for less, 6 mil

Demko - 3.5 mil

Stecher - 4 mil  - Gudbrason was paid more for less

Tryamkin - 4.5 mil - Gudbrason was paid more for a lot less, Tryamkin sticks up for his team mates, did that more than Gudbranson did altogether.

Myers - 6 mil

Markstrom - 6 mil (I think traded before that, maybe this TDL)

Podkolzin - rookie max - 3+mil, maybe a bridge deal like Boeser's - 6+mil

Virtanen - 4.5 mil

Olli Julievi - 0

Sutter gone

Beagle - 3 mil

Miller - 5.25 mil

Ferland - 3.5 mil.

Rousell - 3 mil

Gaudette - 1.9 mil

 

Luongo - 3 mil

 

Possible

Sven and Eriksson, - 10 mil cap hit, if buried - 7.75+ mil cap hit

 

Concussions are a big concern now and the Canucks seem to be collecting players that have experienced repeated "upper body injuries".

Funny thing about concussion symptoms, they can manifest as the flu or other mild issues.

Players to watch are Ferland, Miller, Baerstchi, Beagle, Rousell, these are NHL reported dingers, the AHL and junior don't have as much recorded detail for injuries at all

 

 

Thanks for the reply. There is a lot of detail in your post that it is difficult to reply, but will give it a go...

 

You say 8 players should get qualifying offers. I’m not sure which 8 you mean, but of our 14 RFA’s next season, none of them are under $660k salary, so none require a 10% raise on a QO. Most require a 5% raise (as are under $1m salary), but I would say Gaudette, Virtanen, Stecher and Motte will be the only resigned RFAs likely to be on the NHL roster next season.

 

In what universe do you think Tryamkin is worth $4.5m and Stecher is worth $4m? I’m not saying they can’t improve and MAYBE be worth that, but they won’t be paid based on what Gudbranson got, and they will have to be exhibiting the ability to be a top 4 D man on a contender to warrant that sort of money and that could be 3-4 years away. Their next contract will be more along the lines of what Benn is getting to start with, with perhaps an additional $0.5-1.0m due to being younger and having more potential.

 

The new salaries you have proposed in 2 to 3 years time just don’t fit with the actual timelines of contracts ending. E.g. Bo has 4 more years on his contract. Pettersson has 2 years. Myers has 5 years. The point I was trying to make earlier is that the contracts are staggered and timed in such a way that we won’t end up in serious cap trouble in any one year, even as our high end players command more salary.

 

Let’s take the 2021-22 season for example since this is when Petey is due his next contract. You say $9m, I am guessing more like $10m.

 

The only players we have contracted for that season are: Horvat, Boeser, Eriksson, Miller, Ferland, Beagle, Roussel, Myers. The projected cap hit is $41.15m, including the $3m recapture penalty.

 

It is likely the cap goes up a few million by then, let’s say to $84m, should give us about $42.8m to spend on 15 players. By example only, this could be achieved as follows:

Pettersson - $10m

Gaudette - $3.5m

Virtanen - $2.5m (NO WAY he gets $4.5m without serious improvement)

Podkolzin - $1m (ELC)

Hoglander - $1m (ELC)

MacEwen - $1m

Hughes - $6m

Tryamkin - $3.5m

Stecher - $3.5m

Juolevi - $3m

Brisebois - $1.25m

Rafferty - $1.25m

Woo - $0.9 (still on his ELC)

Demko - $3.5m

Dipietro - $0.8m (still on his ELC)

 

Roster:

Miller Petey Boeser

Ferland Horvat Podz

Hoglander Gaudette Virtanen

Roussel Beagle MacEwen

(Eriksson)

 

Hughes Myers

Tryamkin Stecher

Juolevi Woo

(Brisebois Rafferty)

 

Demko

Dipietro

 

Now I am projecting 3 years out, so there is no way that I am guessing correctly on the prospects that will make it or not. But the reality is that this team has its core now, we will purposely lose vets as they age out and become UFA, our stars will command more salary as they ascend, and we will fill in the role players with dynamic young (and cheap) players from our deep prospect pool.

[J.I.A.H.N]

On 10/10/2019 at 11:47 AM, hockeyking said:

Roussell and motte aren't on LTIR just IR so we don't need to shed anything since the cap calculation already includes their salary. In other words we do nothing at all

Well, That is odd......because Cap Friendly says he is on LTIR todat………...Oct. 16th

 

Anyone notice this

[BigTramFan]

36 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

Well, That is odd......because Cap Friendly says he is on LTIR todat………...Oct. 16th

 

Anyone notice this

Roussel was put on LTIR to allow the Canucks to bring MacIntyre and Sautner up from Utica to cover for Marky's absence and Fanta's illness.

Without doing that they would have been over the cap. They could have put Roussel on LTIR earlier but there was no need to since they were below $81.5m even with him on IR.