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The DumbBrexit / #Wexit thread


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13 minutes ago, Curmudgeon said:

Question: if Alberta somehow manages to actually separate and become a sovereign nation, how many present Albertans would decide to leave Alberta in order to retain their rights and privileges (and obligations and responsibilities) that are theirs as Canadians? I only ask because I would assume there are a lot of Albertans who don’t support independence. I just wonder what happens to them if their Canadian citizenship is taken away. Even if only 10% decided to move away from Alberta, you’d be losing about 450,000 people, virtually all of whom would probably have the financial means and job portability needed to start somewhere else. Quite a hit to the fledgling nation’s economy, to say nothing of the talent drain. 

Interesting question.

 

First off you've the CPP of millions of Albertans at risk as they try to make a provincial pension plan tied in to resources.  Asking millions to give up their hard earned pensions won't sit well.

 

Many Albertans aren't aware that via the clarity act and partition agreement Alberta would stand to lose up to 70% of its existing land mass including oil reserves.  As many energy companies have agreements in standing with the federal government many current projects would leave Alberta and remain in Canada as well.

 

Rails are still under federal jurisdiction, as such subject to federal closure or re-routing.  No ports in a tiny land locked area.  It would mean a depth of issues I don't think anyone has factored in on the Wexit side.

 

Finally, as all the highways are in fact under provincial or federal jurisdiction, those too would become subject to closure or border type crossings.  As many routes would in fact remain in Canadian hands in the event Alberta leaves it also leaves them without major highway access.

 

Finally, America.  The prevailing belief is "well we will just deal with the US". The irony is that they're currently only dealing with the US.  As a tiny landlocked nation with zero leverage and a fraction of the energy reserves they once had, the idea of having any bargaining power with America is a laugh.  Added that pipelines fall under federal jurisdiction and as such federal control it leaves Alberta with

 

No rail

No highways

No pension

No healthcare

No military

No oil reserves

No control over their own pipelines

No ports

The loss of major parks

Up to 70% less landmass

 

I mean, the idea that a majority support Wexit is already a lie.  But to suggest that once all the variables are laid out that anyone would consider remaining in an Alberta on its own is a stretch on its own.

 

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Wexit seriously needs to rethink it's marketing campaign. 

Constantly stating that they are not Canadians but Albertans will only aggravate people that are proud to be Canadians.

In my opinion they should be trying to explain their position and hope for empathy and understanding. There is that saying 'you catch more flies with honey' but I think AB has thought... we know another substance that attracts flies, well again IMO the substance they use stinks. 

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14 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

Lol good luck with that.

EE, ya thanks JT.

Well we would save 23 billion a year..

What would the cost of 

 

Highways

Rail

Port access

Tariffs to all of the above

Military

Border crossings

Education

Healthcare

Police

Equipment for all of the above

 

Be per year?

Edited by Warhippy
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12 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

I have always said Alberta and Ottawa would be best friends and great trading partners it's you guys suggesting Canada would shoot itself in the foot.

Nope and nope. Spurring growth because ndp high taxes and low price of oil(because of BC and JT)caused companies to leave and companies not to invest.

So you're literally saying that all of Alberta's problems started under Trudeau and Notley and at no point in time did any of those issues exist beforehand?

 

Seriously?

 

That none of those issues could be or are anyone else's fault.  Not the price of oil.  Decreased royalties.  Lowered taxes.  Or any factual economic or historical reason.  Really?

 

As for great friends and trading partners.  What would you have to offer Canada being a landlocked nation 30% of your existing size and no leverage to speak of?

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1 minute ago, Warhippy said:

What would the cost of 

 

Highways

Rail

Port access

Tariffs to all of the above

Military

Border crossings

Education

Healthcare

Police

Equipment for all of the above

 

Cost per year?

Alberta pays for healthcare, education, police, highways, etc.

Again put tariffs on and we sell no oil to Canada and cut off all BC pipelines. 

And we save 23 billion. 

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15 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

when all the oil is gone, whats going to fuel your wexit economy? 

Does AB become another Montana without oil? Maybe but the oil will flow for another 30 years. That is not a lot of time and to a degree forces AB’s hand. Do they continue to shovel money eastward or take their destiny into their own hands. As I said no Albertan should have any delusions that easterners will give two craps about AB when the cash cow drys up. 

 

Some people seem seem to take comfort thinking the attitude in AB is isolated there. I suggest it exists across the West. Does that manifest into a real Wexit movement? To a large degree that likely is decided in AB. AB could be the focal point that drives a movement across the West. Kenney, the federalist, is not secure and he knows it. He draws out the process of addressing the grassroots at his political peril. He might get away with a separate police force and pension plan but I doubt that is enough. When people are hurting financially and see industry collapsing, their society collapsing, they will react. Wexit will be on the next provincial ballot and Kenney knows that. 

 

All the politics aside aside when the debt crisis hits Canada will not survive anyway. Scary times ahead.

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5 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

So you're literally saying that all of Alberta's problems started under Trudeau and Notley and at no point in time did any of those issues exist beforehand?

 

Seriously?

 

That none of those issues could be or are anyone else's fault.  Really?

 

As for great friends and trading partners.  What would you have to offer Canada being a landlocked nation 30% of your existing size and no leverage to speak of?

Nothing. 

Enjoy longer flights across Canada, as for vehicle travel now you can go through the US hope u have no criminal record.

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2 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

Alberta pays for healthcare, education, police, highways, etc.

Again put tariffs on and we sell no oil to Canada and cut off all BC pipelines

And we save 23 billion. 

What if the states starts to squeeze you?

You would be completely at their mercy. From what I've seen of that country they don't give AF about anyone but themselves.

Do you have a contingency plan?

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3 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Does AB become another Montana without oil? Maybe but the oil will flow for another 30 years. That is not a lot of time and to a degree forces AB’s hand. Do they continue to shovel money eastward or take their destiny into their own hands. As I said no Albertan should have any delusions that easterners will give two craps about AB when the cash cow drys up. 

 

Some people seem seem to take comfort thinking the attitude in AB is isolated there. I suggest it exists across the West. Does that manifest into a real Wexit movement? To a large degree that likely is decided in AB. AB could be the focal point that drives a movement across the West. Kenney, the federalist, is not secure and he knows it. He draws out the process of addressing the grassroots at his political peril. He might get away with a separate police force and pension plan but I doubt that is enough. When people are hurting financially and see industry collapsing, their society collapsing, they will react. Wexit will be on the next provincial ballot and Kenney knows that. 

 

All the politics aside aside when the debt crisis hits Canada will not survive anyway. Scary times ahead.

30 years lol.

At least 100 years.

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Just now, bishopshodan said:

What if the states starts to squeeze you?

You would be completely at their mercy. From what I've seen of that country they don't give AF about anyone but themselves.

Do you have a contingency plan?

Why would they?

Our oil to their refineries creates wealth and jobs.

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4 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

All the politics aside aside when the debt crisis hits Canada will not survive anyway. Scary times ahead.

Predicated on the assumption it's only Canada at risk and avoiding all other global indicators and issues

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1 minute ago, Ryan Strome said:

Why would they?

Our oil to their refineries creates wealth and jobs.

How many refineries in the Gulf are shuttered?  How many can process dil-bit?  How much extra will you pay for them to open just those up and increase or allow line access?

 

Come on Strome.  You're living in a fantasy world

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3 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

Nothing. 

Enjoy longer flights across Canada, as for vehicle travel now you can go through the US hope u have no criminal record.

I live in the Lower mainland. How does an independent Alberta make my flight to Toronto longer? I’ll wait.

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Just now, Warhippy said:

How many refineries in the Gulf are shuttered?  How many can process dil-bit?  How much extra will you pay for them to open just those up and increase or allow line access?

 

Come on Strome.  You're living in a fantasy world

Actually I'm not...ottawa has no upper hand they will suffer more. Enjoy 12% gst.

Maybe JT and others should stop working against us. EE was a no brainer and he essentially killed it. 

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Just now, Ryan Strome said:

Lol btw how does Canada recoup the 23 billion a year they lose?

That's more than they spend on defense. 

Health and social transfers to alberta alone are over or around $9 billion all told.  That's almost half right there.  Then the tariffs and duties the nation would make from Alberta paying to use highways, pipelines, ports etc.

 

I'd say honestly the shortfall would be less than $11 billion at that point.

 

But then again, this is an arbitrary number isn't it

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1 minute ago, Ryan Strome said:

Actually I'm not...ottawa has no upper hand they will suffer more. Enjoy 12% gst.

Maybe JT and others should stop working against us. EE was a no brainer and he essentially killed it. 

Really?

 

So an Alberta with only 30% of its existing landmass and oil reserves

 

Zero port access.  Zero highway or rail access.  Zero medical equipment from federal sources.  Zero access to the American border.  Zero pipelines that exist without going through Canada first.  Zero airspace access and no existing trade agreements would have more leverage than Canada.

 

Really?  You're spare parts aren't ya bud?

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3 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Nope. Not just Canada. It will be global.

Precisely.  Global.

 

Now imagine a landlocked Alberta with Zero port access.  Zero highway or rail access.  Zero medical equipment from federal sources.  Zero access to the American border.  Zero pipelines that exist without going through Canada first.  Zero airspace access and no existing trade agreements.

 

In a world suffering through major economic depression.

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4 minutes ago, Curmudgeon said:

I live in the Lower mainland. How does an independent Alberta make my flight to Toronto longer? I’ll wait.

Right, already dependent on the Us.

2 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Health and social transfers to alberta alone are over or around $9 billion all told.  That's almost half right there.  Then the tariffs and duties the nation would make from Alberta paying to use highways, pipelines, ports etc.

 

I'd say honestly the shortfall would be less than $11 billion at that point.

 

But then again, this is an arbitrary number isn't it

Please educate yourself, hip. Alberta transferred 49 billion to Ottawa and received like 21 billion back.

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