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The DumbBrexit / #Wexit thread


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Just now, Ryan Strome said:

"The promise of Canada's potential will not be realized until governments can reach agreement around how climate policy considerations will be addressed in the context of future responsible energy sector development," Lindsay wrote. "Without clarity on this critical question, the situation that has faced Frontier will be faced by future projects and it will be very difficult to attract future investment, either domestic or foreign."

dying industry.... thankfully.   Time for Canada to become world leaders in Green Energy / Green Technology.

Edited by kingofsurrey
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8 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

"The promise of Canada's potential will not be realized until governments can reach agreement around how climate policy considerations will be addressed in the context of future responsible energy sector development," Lindsay wrote. "Without clarity on this critical question, the situation that has faced Frontier will be faced by future projects and it will be very difficult to attract future investment, either domestic or foreign."

Kenney is ruining Alberta. That much is clear. 

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25 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

Teck withdraws application for Frontier oilsands mine, citing debate around climate policy

"We are disappointed to have arrived at this point," CEO and president Don Lindsay wrote in a letter addressed to federal Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, posted to the company's website Sunday evening. "Teck put forward a socially and environmentally responsible project that was industry leading and had the potential to create significant economic benefits for Canadians."

Lindsay wrote that customers want policies that reconcile resource development and climate change — something that Canada has yet to achieve.

"Unfortunately, the growing debate around this issue has placed Frontier and our company squarely at the nexus of much broader issues that need to be resolved. In that context, it is now evident that there is no constructive path forward for the project," he wrote.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/teck-frontier-1.5473370

Literally nothing more than a business decision but the JT is killing Canada crowd is loud and super whiny 

 

TECK CEO Lindsay said the entire project relied on 3 things. A pipeline (being built,) the price to increase to break even levels $70 per barrel, and a partner to mitigate the cost (as they did in Fort Hills) this has nothing to do with anything other than a business decision based on economics. Hoping a 40 year project will sustain $70+ per barrel prices in the face of emerging technology that is moving away from fossil fuels is a sure loser after year 10. Money decision nothing more

Edited by Warhippy
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13 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

"The promise of Canada's potential will not be realized until governments can reach agreement around how climate policy considerations will be addressed in the context of future responsible energy sector development," Lindsay wrote. "Without clarity on this critical question, the situation that has faced Frontier will be faced by future projects and it will be very difficult to attract future investment, either domestic or foreign."

What a chicken$#!? excuse for TECK to take.  They pulled the plug early so blame can be placed on government when anyone with a brain knows the economics just weren't there for them to go forward.  They pulled the plug early because they didn't want to face the chance that JT would approve.  

 

But hey, its JT'S fault. 

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26 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:

You crack me up....

 

 

 

Booming LNG industry could be as bad for climate as coal ...

 

Natural gas is at times described as a transition fuel in the response to the climate crisis as it has about half the carbon dioxide emissions of black coal when burned to generate electricity. That argument has been rejected by the head of the International Energy Agency and science bodies warning the world needs to rapidly move to clean energy and industries.

Nace said it was difficult to compare emissions from coal and gas given their different nature. Gas has lower CO2 emissions than black coal when burned for electricity, but LNG developments also leak methane, which is a relatively short-lived gas that lasts in the atmosphere about 12 years but still has a warming power about 28 times greater than the same amount of CO2 when calculated over a century.

 

Yeah fake news

 

https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2019/7/no-natural-gas-not-bad-coal-iea/

Quote

A new special report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on natural gas is poking a hole in the argument that natural gas and LNG is just as bad, or even worse than coal, in terms of its global warming potential. 

It also finds that LNG exported to China from Canada would have lower emissions than pipeline gas.

Anti-fossil fuel advocates point to a couple of studies that suggest that natural gas and LNG is no better – and potentially even worse – than coal due to fugitive methane leaks.

Other life-cycles analyses have found that methane emissions from natural gas production is well below the threshold that would be needed to put it on the same footing as coal, fin terms of global warming potential.

 

A life-cycle analysis by the IEA now refutes those studies that suggest natural gas is as bad as coal.

“Gas is nearly always better than coal on a lifecycle basis,” the new 110-page report concludes.

The IEA examined four scenarios – Europe, the U.S., China and India – and concludes that there can be a “quick win,” in GHG reductions by utilizing existing natural gas plants to supplant coal power.

It notes that in the U.S., nearly one-fifth of total emissions reductions since 2010 (18%) was from switching from coal power to natural gas.

The report does warn, however, of the danger of locking in natural gas, and the need to eventually lower its emissions intensity even more through carbon capture and storage or utilization.

Here are some of the IEA’s conclusions on the GHG intensity of gas, compared to coal:

  • “Our detailed assessment of today’s lifecycle emissions of gas and coal supply finds that switching to natural gas yields significant emissions reductions in nearly all cases”;
  • “In 2018, gas on average resulted in 33% fewer emissions than coal per unit of heat used in industry and buildings, and 50% fewer emissions than coal per unit of electricity generated”;
  • “We estimate that up to 1.2 gigatonnes of CO2 could be abated in the short term by switching from coal to existing gas-fired plants, if relative prices and regulation are supportive”;
  • “While there is a wide variation across different sources of coal and gas, we estimate that over 98% of gas consumed today has a lower lifecycle emissions intensity than coal when used for power or heat.”

China and India account for more than 60% of the coal burned in the world. One might therefore assume it is the biggest potential market for switching from coal to natural gas.

 

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84054905_824405141392334_6770501533910958080_n.jpg

84147703_824405164725665_4606531757024477184_n.jpg

 

This flies directly in the face of what they stated to the public to some extent.  Purely a monetary business decision.  Praying a project with a 40+ year shelf life that is predicated on a money making model of $70 a barrel when barrels are now and have been trading at or below $50 for years is literally only a business decision.

 

They needed the 3 Ps and they were unable to secure 2 of them.

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3 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

HAHHAAHA. - too funny.....  

 

 

 

JWN Energy (JWN) is Canada's most trusted provider of information, intelligence, and insight on the Canadian energy industry. Our flagship products, the Daily Oil Bulletin and Oilweek,
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https://energi.media/markham-on-energy/buffalo-declaration-exposes-utter-failure-of-modern-alberta-oil-and-gas-leadership/?fbclid=IwAR19gglPsWku_bWur_G28HPV30zdieYSfqA2BDhJgymnvuHPyPqrqL5cZ0A

 

As junior oil sector collapses, dragging down services industry and other suppliers, leaders like Buffalo Project retreat into Trumpian populism instead of confronting challenges

Have you read the Buffalo Declaration? You should. There is no other way to comprehend just how vapid, inaccurate, hyper-partisan, torqued, overwrought, blinkered, out of touch, myopic, and just downright braindead the Buffalo Declaration is. For some reason, however, Albertans are lining up to sign it.

What’s going on here?

Alberta seized by Trumpian populism

The Buffalo Declaration can only be understood as a form of populism rooted in Jason Kenney’s bid to unite Alberta conservatives and defeat Rachel Notley and the heathen NDP.

87524929_979875595747076_212031730124796Like all forms of populism, the Alberta variant requires fearful and angry voters who see themselves as victims. Think of the document in question as 13 pages of hot buttons designed to send Alberta limbic systems into DEFCON 5. Abe Simpson standing on 4th Avenue in front of the Calgary Petroleum Club, shaking his fist at clouds.

What’s making Albertans so fearful and angry? Where did all those hot buttons come from?

According to the declaration, Alberta got a raw deal when it was created in 1905 and the “Laurentian elites” have been sticking it to them ever since. Ottawa takes an unfair amount of money for equalization payments to have-not provinces like Quebec (not true), deliberately sabotages pipeline projects by “strangling” them with regulations (also not true), and treats Alberta like a “colony” (so very not true).

That is the core of the Buffalo narrative.

It’s the work of the Buffalo Project, whose board is comprised of old, wealthy, conservative men, mostly hailing from the oil patch. Former Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall is an intermittent media spokesperson, popping up on TV news shows to warn one more time that “the West” is mad as hell again and not prepared to take it anymore.

Ironically, after a token appearance early in the Declaration, Saskatchewan disappears from the narrative. This is Alberta’s show, folks.

The entire document, from stem to stern, drones on about Alberta’s victimhood. It’s as factual as a Donald Trump word salad and makes as much sense. For instance, at one point the Declaration complains there aren’t enough Alberta reporters in the Parliamentary press gallery and demands adding more Western journalists as part of the “structural solutions” recommendations.

Facts, schmacts.

Like Seinfeld’s “Festivus for the rest of us,” the Buffalo narrative is about grievances. The key to understanding the grievances of a province that still has the highest per capita incomes and the lowest taxes in the country is understanding the two Alberta oil patches.

The “haves” and “have-nots” of the Alberta oil and gas sector

The modern Alberta oil patch has two camps. In some ways, there are two oil patches. How much in common do one million barrels per day oil sands bitumen miners have with tiny companies pumping less than 10,000 barrels per day of light sweet crude and natural gas?

5530638424473600-e1580680060655.pngSource: Oil and Gas Review, December 2019, ASC.

The easiest way to understand the oil patch “have-nots” is to watch my 10-minute interview with economist Richard Masson about the capital crisis in the junior sector, which is in the process of collapsing. While the seniors – giants like Suncor and CNRL – are highly profitable and drowning in cash, Alberta has lost 55 per cent of its smaller producers since 2016. Prospects for the next few years are just as glum.

Revenue and cash flow trouble for junior producers, however, means double trouble for service companies, especially the smaller mom-and-pop operations in rural and northern communities, and the rest of the supply chain that supports the little companies.

All those failing businesses mean laid-off workers, 13,000 in the past year alone, 36,000 since the apex of the last boom in 2014, according to Calgary-based PetroLMI. And let’s not forget the senior oil sands companies adopting new technologies like automated oil sands ore trucks and artificial intelligence software that have allowed them to lay off employees – many of them well-paid white-collar professionals in Calgary head offices – while reducing capital expenditures and growing production.

5419451451965440-e1582395352786.pngSource: PetroLMI employment and labour data for Alberta 2010 to 2020.

The oil patch crisis may be most acute in the natural gas sector, which has lost critical market share in Eastern Canada to American shale producers from the Marcellus and been decimated by low prices.

The situation is so dire that last July, nine gas-weighted producers sent a letter to Premier Kenney imploring “the Government of Alberta to take swift and decisive action to restore a balanced and orderly market for AECOin order to capture a fair market price for Albertans’ natural gas resource and, at the same time, help avert a crisis in the natural gas sector which could result in widespread corporate failures, significant job loss and a further deterioration in investor confidence that will impair the Alberta gas sector’s ability to participate in any future recovery.”

Unfortunately, the only possible relief for Alberta gas producers is LNG development on the West Coast, but LNG Canada’s $40 billion liquefaction facility won’t start operations until 2025.

Within this larger context, Alberta’s crippling fixation with “foreign-funded activists” and anxiety over the Wetʼsuwetʼen First Nation blockade of the Coastal GasLink pipeline begins to make more sense.

Oil patch “haves,” however, are flying high and making record profits. “In the fourth quarter of 2019, Suncor generated funds from operations of $2.6 billion, bringing annual funds from operations to a new record of $10.8 billion,” according to CEO Mark Little, noting that in 2019 Canada’s biggest integrated oil company “returned $4.9 billion in dividends and share repurchases to shareholders, representing 45% of our total funds from operations.”

When was the last time a public company returned almost half of its annual revenue to shareholders?

The Big 5 (Suncor, CNRL, Cenovus, Husky, Imperial) produce 80 per cent of Alberta’s oil, mostly from the oil sands. They have the financial resources to contract pipeline capacity, while the juniors are forced to sell on the spot market at heavily discounted prices. Oil sands CEOs issue press releases about the climate crisis and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, while juniors fret about making payroll, can’t pay their municipal taxes, and bitterly resent higher regulatory compliance costs that only add more red ink to their bottom line.

The Alberta “haves” are enjoying a heyday the likes of which may never be seen again in Alberta. Meanwhile, the “have-nots” are going broke.

Populist conservative leadership believes the sky is falling

Understanding the schism between the “haves” and the “have-nots” is the key to understanding the Buffalo narrative.

4613921745666048-e1582395724511.jpegSource: The Buffalo Declaration website.

Not surprisingly, the leaders of the Buffalo Project and the industry organizations that support Kenney’s UCP government mostly hail from the suffering segment of the oilfield. The Buffalo Declaration certainly doesn’t contain the signatures of Cenovus CEO Alex Pourbaix or Husky Energy CEO Rob Peabody or Little.

Not even the heavyweights of the Conservative Party of Canada are onboard, yet anyway. Instead, we have Twitter blocking queen Calgary – Nose Hill MP Michell Rempel and Peace River – Westlock MP Arnold Viersen, who recently had to apologize to an NDP MP after he asked her if she had ever considering being a sex worker.

This is definitely not the A team, folks, and probably not the B team, either. In fact, third-string leadership is the great underlying problem of the Buffalo Project and its farcical Declaration.

Set aside an hour and carefully read – or reread – the Buffalo Declaration. Make up your own mind about the veracity of the stories. If you have time, Google reputable sources and investigate the claims for yourself. Reasonable people will quickly spot the many, many deficiencies in the Buffalo narrative. While  you’re at it, please test my reporting and analysis. Energi Media’s website and YouTube channelare a wealth of information about the global, Canadian, and Alberta energy industries, much of it not available from other media organizations.

The saddest thing about this debacle?

 

5475678882103296-e1582397081172.jpegPhoto source: CBC. The Buffalo Declaration’s seething hatred for the Trudeaus is telling: “Today, a new generation of Albertans face the same policy of economic and political strangulation by another Prime Minister Trudeau who, through regulation, legislation and sparking civil unrest, is usurping the sovereignty over Alberta’s natural resources for which [former Premier Peter] Lougheed fought so hard.”

Important sectors of the Alberta hydrocarbon industry are facing existential threats, but instead of grappling with the difficult issues, instead of showing real leadership in the face of a significant crisis for many Albertans, the “Buffalo wing of the CPC” – as Twitter wags have tagged it – has chosen cheap populism and victimhood over pragmatic, results-oriented solutions.

 

Instead of stepping up, the Buffalo leadership is demanding more Alberta reporters in the Parliamentary press gallery, that Ottawa acknowledges the devastation “the National Energy Program caused to the people of Alberta” 40 years ago, that Alberta be recognized “as a culturally distinct region within Confederation,” and ensuring that “Western art is prominently displayed in national museums.”

Oh, sure, there are other demands, like immediately approving the Teck Frontier oil sands project, but the majority of the Declaration’s “structural solutions” are so inane they’re comical.

Unwilling or unable to confront the real crisis facing Alberta, the Buffalo leadership has retreated into Trumpian victimhood and revival fantasies that require the CPC forming the national government or Alberta seceding. The same magical thinking that believed the Kenney government’s “push back strategy” and the energy war room would actually succeed.

This leadership has failed Alberta and should be called on the carpet by Albertans for that failure.

More importantly, a new generation of Alberta political leadership is needed. One that acknowledges the energy transition and climate crisis, helps the oil and gas sector pivot to the low-carbon future, puts in place practical policies and programs to support junior producers and their supply chains, and recruits allies and builds political alliances across Canada instead of alienating the very Canadians Alberta needs to thrive and prosper in the future.

And now you know just how vapid, inaccurate, hyper-partisan, torqued, overwrought, blinkered, out of touch, myopic, and downright braindead the Buffalo Declaration really is.

Correction: MP Arnold Viersen was first elected in 2015 and is not a rookie. The story has been edited to correct our error

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13 minutes ago, thedestroyerofworlds said:

What a chicken$#!? excuse for TECK to take.  They pulled the plug early so blame can be placed on government when anyone with a brain knows the economics just weren't there for them to go forward.  They pulled the plug early because they didn't want to face the chance that JT would approve.  

 

But hey, its JT'S fault. 

So far only you and warhippy have indicated let's blame JT I'm waiting for more comments from all parties involved. 

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7 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

So far only you and warhippy have indicated let's blame JT I'm waiting for more comments from all parties involved. 

Seriously?  Jason Kenney, pretty much half of Alberta has already spoken out blaming "the state of government" in canada regarding approval of energy projects.  Ironically as the Alberta government is holding up 3 projects of their own.  He'll blame anyone but the truth.

 

Premier Jason Kenney issued a statement on Teck's decision to withdraw shortly after it was announced.

"Teck’s decision is disappointing, but in light of the events of the last few weeks it is not surprising. It is what happens when governments lack the courage to defend the interests of Canadians in the face of a militant minority. The timing of the decision is not a coincidence. This was an economically viable project, as the company confirmed this week, for which the company was advocating earlier this week, so something clearly changed very recently," he wrote. 

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4 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Seriously?  Jason Kenney, pretty much half of Alberta has already spoken out blaming "the state of government" in canada regarding approval of energy projects.  Ironically as the Alberta government is holding up 3 projects of their own.  He'll blame anyone but the truth.

 

Premier Jason Kenney issued a statement on Teck's decision to withdraw shortly after it was announced.

"Teck’s decision is disappointing, but in light of the events of the last few weeks it is not surprising. It is what happens when governments lack the courage to defend the interests of Canadians in the face of a militant minority. The timing of the decision is not a coincidence. This was an economically viable project, as the company confirmed this week, for which the company was advocating earlier this week, so something clearly changed very recently," he wrote. 

And this is basically Lindsay's response but I'm waiting for a few more. Calm down you don't have to preemptively defend JT.

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7 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

And this is basically Lindsay's response but I'm waiting for a few more. Calm down you don't have to preemptively defend JT.

Barring his and Tecks numerous statements about the cost being one of the main reason they'd pull the plug.  see the letter they sent the minister in charge?  Kind of spells it out clearly.

 

There's no defense of JT anymore than there is a rational thought in your head.  but you voted for Jason Kenney and think he's a great leader so whatever

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5 minutes ago, Squamfan said:

Justin Trudeau could not be more happy for today Tech decision. If it was Quebec he would have done something

 

image.png.4527a41f97c111e457bd635ab383a41e.png

image.png

Oh?  Like what?  Subsidized them?  Frontier needed a minimum of a $21 per barrel increase.  Think we should have stepped in to subsidize it or?

 

Open to listening to your gems of intelligence on how JT, Kenney or literally ANYONE would have or could have stepped in to stop this

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4 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Oh?  Like what?  Subsidized them?  Frontier needed a minimum of a $21 per barrel increase.  Think we should have stepped in to subsidize it or?

 

Open to listening to your gems of intelligence on how JT, Kenney or literally ANYONE would have or could have stepped in to stop this

Maybe get some pipelines built so we get market value would be a start.

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