Canucks won't be contender/top team for at least 3 years

[Pickly]

The Canucks aren’t a hard team to play against, yet. They have the talent and capability to compete with anybody on any given night but they aren’t consistent enough to be a true threat in the league, yet. I think the core guys still need to mature a bit and they need to become a team that can adapt to their opponent. So far, they have struggled against teams that play stifling, defensive style hockey and vs teams who have elite offensive talent. 

[JeremyCuddles]

When do the coach’s contracts run out? My money is we’ll be contenders when that happens and we get new coaches. Greener has great pressers but this team should not have gone down the toilet like this just because we lost a grinder and a struggling tough guy. PK has looked decent enough, not sure if I’d give more credit to our goalies and not that super passive box we play. PP has been talked to death, but hey. On paper we have a good percent 

[AriGold2.0]

2022-2023 should be the best season the Canucks should have.

 

Bo and JT will be on the last year of their contracts, Pod will be in his 2nd season. Loui, Beagle, Roussel and Sutter will be gone.

 

That is the year I'm banking on the Canucks to make a serious run.

[luckylager]

I'm not going to get all hung up on semantics.

 

IMO, we're a few years out from being a perennial playoff team. Our core still lacks experience and most of the veteran/UFA support pieces are bottom six calibre.

Hopefully kids develop in the right way and fill holes/make the jump the way it's all planned out, with a couple good surprises mixed in there.

3-4 years  before we're making noise and striking fear into the opposition.

 

I don't think JYD deserves the crap being thrown his way.  It's a perfectly reasonable discussion topic.

 

[Master 112]

15 minutes ago, AriGold2.0 said:

2022-2023 should be the best season the Canucks should have.

 

Bo and JT will be on the last year of their contracts, Pod will be in his 2nd season. Loui, Beagle, Roussel and Sutter will be gone.

 

That is the year I'm banking on the Canucks to make a serious run.

OMG you're back!

[Phil_314]

3 hours ago, timberz21 said:

Contenders is a relatively vague term, nowadays, with the parity in the NHL.  Just have to look at Tampa, Winnipeg, Calgary, Nashville, Vegas and Toronto's early exit last year, teams that were labelled heavy contenders.  Then there was the Sharks, Hurricanes, Islanders, Colorado and St-Louis making a pretty good run in the playoffs, none of which were really considered contenders at the start of the playoffs.  

 

If a team makes the playoffs, they are contenders IMO.

Thank goodness I'm not the only optimist here.  If we can get in and get hot at the right time anything can happen.

 

That being said, I think at most 2 years, probably by next season if development of young guns goes well.  From the net out, we ride the hot hand in the crease (I would not rule out Demko going on a Binnington-esque run or Marky settles down and takes the #1 role and runs with it, and we get solid spot starts from Thatcher); we have a solid if unspectacular de facto first pair of Eddie and Myers that hopefully can keep holding the fort, while Quinn is already likely one of our top two D-men, but we just need continued growth.  Jordie/ Stecher/ Tanev are all plus players given their roles, but we could use more scoring depth from the back end (Myers is ice cold and Stecher has potential to be a good puck mover and passer, who can make transitioning more efficient).  If Quinn or Eddie can take over games as a true #1 or even near that level that could really help when teams start neutralizing each other, and hopefully he can have the confidence to jump in on rushes like Heiskanen did yesterday.  

 

Up front the Lotto Line needs to find different ways to score since the good, structured teams give them trouble by keeping them moreso to the perimeter.  Hopefully that comes with Pete and Brock continuing to grow stronger physically since they're still young and can hopefully become tougher to handle when they drive the net vs. play around the outside.  Bo needs wingers but hopefully some combo of Roussel/ Pearson/ Virtanen/ Sven can give him the play-making winger and a straight line skating running mate who can also play a heavy, physical game which we'd need for a playoff run.  If Gaudette and his line (Leivo/ Ferland/ Sutter/ whoever's left from the 2nd line) can provide secondary scoring and a speedy attack that may be the depth we need, and I like the looks that we had of Schaller, Beagle and Motte.  With the trickle down effect even this line would probably get better, but it's all a matter of finding effective line combos and once again getting hot at the right time. 

[Nucker 67]

In September I thought they would be contenders next spring. Silly me. Having Horvat, Boeser, Pettersson and Hughes as the young stars leading the way, supported by a good cast with Beagle, Virtanen, Gaudette, Miller, Ferland, Motte and Roussel. The D was upgraded and is better, but it's not great yet. I think they could do more ugrades, like replacing Stecher and Tanev. My concern is mainly goaltending and coaching. I don't think Markstrom or Green are the guys. Getting Madden, Podkolzin, Hoglander, Rathbone and Woo into the lineup will eventually help.

 

Wouild be nice to get Askarov in the 2020 Draft, to one day have a Demko/Askarov duo. Yikes.

[Dazzle]

2 hours ago, Industrious1 said:

Pretty simple question.  Not sure why all the hijinx in this thread when it seems like an honest discussion.

 

Going to say two more years of seasoning before the Canucks become a team that others circle on their calendar.  

They're already a team at this point that teams have circled on their calendar. We make WAY too many mistakes -> easy goals.

[Guest]

Two more years! 
we just need to keep on improving our D 

 

This is the worst time to make judgments on our team as we are slumping however I’m losing a lot of faith in a player or two that I won’t name now. 
 

 

[Nucker 67]

What did Benning say in the past about championship teams having players averaging around 27-30 years old? The Canucks are too young still. They have some good support players in this age range, but the young stars who are expected to lead this team are still too young.

 

Horvat - 24

Boeser - 22

Pettersson - 21

Hughes - 20

 

And then next year they'll have Hoglander (who will be 19), and then Podkolzin the year after (who will be 20). It's a young team, but I think once Horvat hits 27, then this team will start to contend for that big, shiny trophy.  But damn, will suck big time if they lose that 1st rounder and still miss the playoffs.

[BertaNuck]

Did you you just assume their contender-ness?

 

[JPizzle]

1-2 years , the foundation is coming along.

[J.I.A.H.N]

I think as Canuck fans, we look at our Roster and prospects and project 2 or 3 years down the line, as if 100% of our players will continue to progress, but I am not sure that is going to happen exactly like we want.

 

Sure Petey, Brock, and Quinn will most undoubtedly continue to grow, but will Gaudette, Virtanen and Demko continue to grow?

 

Will Podkolzin, Hoglander, Juolevi, Woo, Lind, Rathbone, Madden, and DiPietro take the steps necessary to fill in the holes, created by out going veterans?

 

I think it can safely be said that Horvat, is at the top of his ceiling, and may not grow much more as a player....and that is no slight on BO

 

Will Tryamkin come? Will Tryamkin come in and play a significant part? These are questions not know yet.....

 

In 3 years, who replaces Edler, Tanev, Miller, and Ferland as top 6 type players?

 

And as much as people whine about Beagle, Schaller, Sutter and Roussel, will we have enough cap space to replace them with similar type players?

 

I think is an easy 3 years before we are a true contender, and maybe a lot longer, depending on the outcome of all the other above players and how they develop

 

When our team is winning, we look like world beaters, when we loose, we look terrible. Personally, I have thrown away my tank keys, but having watched the last

 

weeks games, I feel we need to slow down on our expectations, certainly I will be slowing down in my expectations.

 

Teams that are true contenders have depth that is able to step up. Something, I do not believe we have yet. I look no further than Toronto to see, that having 3 or 4 stars

 

does not make you a contender. Their depth is terrible. Take note of that!

 

Rebuilds take a lot longer than 3 to 5 years normally, and normally that is for a full, deep farm team as well...………..as all are needed, to be a contender......

 

Our players, and the players we foresee on the big club, leaves nothing in the farm, so when you look at it objectively, it shows you we are not there now, and 

 

will need those 3 years, if not more to gain that depth...…..

 

The ups and downs are killing me, as they are everyone...……….and it is all wait and see...……...Damn!....

 

Can't find my tank keys, and it cost too much to rent Alf's Crystal Ball 

 

 

[GritGrinder]

Before last season I posted a response in a thread saying that the Canucks were 6-9 years away from contending based on the simple formula below.

 

2-3 seasons of trying to get into the playoffs.

We're a quarter of the way into season 2 of that scenario and missing last season and this November swoon are making it look more likely that season 3 will be the first playoff year for this core (hopefully).

 

2-3 seasons of making the playoffs and going out in the 1st or second round. TBD

 

2-3 seasons of consistently being near the top of the Pacific/West and being a legit SC contender. TBD

 

CDC seeing 9 years is going to think I'm insane but think of the Canucks between 2006 and 2013 for a reference. Missed the playoffs twice, went out in the second round 3 times and then were an SC contender for 3 years despite going out in the 1st round in 2012 and 2013.

[ItTakesAnArmy]

Not under this management group. This group appears to be only concerned with making the playoffs as their only goal.

Too many blown draft picks, picks not even good enough to crack bottom six and only 4 draft picks and Demko in six drafts.

Bad contracts, mediocre trades, trading away the future and bad cap management

Contenders are usually all pretty close in age top to bottom, this core is too young yet and not enough of them.

 

They have a chance IF there is new management that tears down and is smart about cap management, using that space to get picks and trading for more picks.

Under new management they could move a lot of expensive vets, get a couple, maybe even three draft picks over the next two years combined with what ever is in the system now.

 

They could make the playoffs but they would not be contenders and they are in danger of becoming a middle of the road team, almost there, annually.

They don't have to get rid of everyone but they may have to trade a very good asset to get the right parts.

They need a second line as dangerous as a first line. They need another Boeser or Pettersson. They need "healthy" players, concussed players are not really long lasting.

 

Under this management, with the cap management, trades and contracts 4+ years playoff contenders

Under a new aggressive management group, 3 years as playoff contenders,

 

Enough passes for Benning, fired coaches and still no marked improvement, 4 to 6 points improvement over 4 years is not good enough.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BobSacamano]

I think the biggest mistake with this thread is starting it after a loss. The sky is falling, the Canucks are the worst team to ever play in the league and team tank is gaining momentum. 

 

Half joking aside, I’d say 3-4 years, gives time for guys to develop further, hopefully we gain some higher end offensive talent on the blue line (though it is shaping up nicely) and we can fill out our top 9 With Podz, Lind etc. 

 

Just because it’s 3-4 years though doesn’t mean they can’t compete and win a round in the playoffs. Here’s hoping! 

[Bertuzzi44ever]

4 hours ago, N7Nucks said:

When do the coach’s contracts run out? My money is we’ll be contenders when that happens and we get new coaches. Greener has great pressers but this team should not have gone down the toilet like this just because we lost a grinder and a struggling tough guy. PK has looked decent enough, not sure if I’d give more credit to our goalies and not that super passive box we play. PP has been talked to death, but hey. On paper we have a good percent 

I would suggest our play fell off more because we started Playing better teams more regularly then losing those couple of depth players 

[Dr. Crossbar]

I always look at these questions from the standpoint of our core in age and experience ... the numbers paint a certain reality.

 

Is it more likely we "contend" when our core young guys are between 19 - 24, or when our core is more experienced 24+ into their prime? 

 

Also, when we're talking about continuing to draft within that time period, there's also development time of 2, 3, or even 4 years each time someone is drafted ... unless, of course, we draft NHL ready prospects in the Top 5 each time, which is unlikely. So, with each prospect drafted, you've got to look at them as 2-3 year works in progress if not more.

 

We're still 2-years away from Podz, likely 2-years the very earliest with Hoglander, and more for Madden, Woo, DiPietro ... who knows a timeline for Juolevi, Lind, Rathbone, or even guys like Jasek, Palmu, etc. 

 

What's interesting is that JT Miller and Micheal Ferland are signed until 2022-23 with Tyler Myers 2023-24. That's 4-5 seasons and revealing in terms of a timeline.

 

You can look at these signings two ways in relation to what I mentioned above ... either these signings are an indicator that we'll be in a better position to compete and contend within the timeline of those contracts, or those contracts will take us the point of contention when our now young core is 24+, closer to their prime and more experienced. 

 

Also interesting is the naming of Horvat the captain. In April of next year he turns 25. Obviously he's in the long term plan but in 5 years he'll be 30. So, if you look at things from a window of contention and winning with Horvat as captain, his window (with the game getting younger) would likely be 5-7 years. Maybe 5-9 years pushing it. 

 

And really, to take full advantage of Pettersson, Hughes, Boeser, and Demko in their primes as contenders, we're looking at a window of 7-12 years from now before they're on the back end of the careers. How many of those years will we spend trying to be contenders versus actually contending is key. 

 

In saying all that, though, something special could happen in the next couple years if we get healthy, things go right, and we get luck on our side. I hope that happens this year and we get into the playoffs and make noise. I really hope our guys reach for that and get a taste of what's possible. The sooner we experience playoff hockey, the better.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Dr. Crossbar
.

[RonMexico]

5 hours ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Cuocontenders? Did you mean Cuckoocontenders?

 

I believe this is CUOCOntenders he referred to

[higgyfan]

46 minutes ago, ItTakesAnArmy said:

Not under this management group. This group appears to be only concerned with making the playoffs as their only goal.

Too many blown draft picks, picks not even good enough to crack bottom six and only 4 draft picks and Demko in six drafts.

Bad contracts, mediocre trades, trading away the future and bad cap management

Contenders are usually all pretty close in age top to bottom, this core is too young yet and not enough of them.

 

They have a chance IF there is new management that tears down and is smart about cap management, using that space to get picks and trading for more picks.

Under new management they could move a lot of expensive vets, get a couple, maybe even three draft picks over the next two years combined with what ever is in the system now.

 

They could make the playoffs but they would not be contenders and they are in danger of becoming a middle of the road team, almost there, annually.

They don't have to get rid of everyone but they may have to trade a very good asset to get the right parts.

They need a second line as dangerous as a first line. They need another Boeser or Pettersson. They need "healthy" players, concussed players are not really long lasting.

 

Under this management, with the cap management, trades and contracts 4+ years playoff contenders

Under a new aggressive management group, 3 years as playoff contenders,

 

Enough passes for Benning, fired coaches and still no marked improvement, 4 to 6 points improvement over 4 years is not good enough.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seems in most NHL team situations, the rebuilding management/coaching staff are usually replaced before the team makes it to the 'promised land'.