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Canucks 2020-2021 Roster Issues

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Gaudette will have fully taken Sutters spot by next year, and while I like Beagle and what he brings to the team. Next year he will be a 35 year old 4 line center making 3 miilion dollars. I would be happy if they were just able to move Eriksson, Sutter, and Baertchi though 

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1 minute ago, Jimmy McGill said:

you need to look through to one more season where it opens up to 40 mil when Spooner, Baer and Sutter are off the books. Lu's off the year after with Loui.

 

Ideal? nope. Panic time? nope. We're going to have the same core roster next year, with the addition of Tryamkin and maybe some kids from Utica.

Don't like fitting in, do you.

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2 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

you need to look through to one more season where it opens up to 40 mil when Spooner, Baer and Sutter are off the books. Lu's off the year after with Loui.

 

Ideal? nope. Panic time? nope. We're going to have the same core roster next year, with the addition of Tryamkin and maybe some kids from Utica. 

 

 

I think next year is a great chance to compete for the cup though, with our two best players on the last year of their ELC's.

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51 minutes ago, Provost said:

Thewr The closer we get to the trade deadline, and seeing how players have been performing this year, it is hard not to look forward to next season and how the team is  going to have to choose who to re-sign to stay under the cap.  We have a real possibility of having a worse roster next year than this one.  We can't count on re-signing all our UFAs/RFAs, and also can't count on all the players who are having career years this year matching their output next season.  Even status quo means the talk of making a move for another top 6 winger (unless a pure rental, which Benning has said isn't really their aim), highly unlikely.

 

Unfortunately three of our better success stories are three of the few players needing new contracts (Markstrom, Gaudette, and Virtanen).  If Tanev continues to have a healthy year, that ups his value as well.

We pretty much have to say goodbye to Stecher and Leivo, they will command more than we can afford.  Markstrom is going to get $5.5-6.0 if not more; Virtanen is probably in the $2.25-3.0 range; Gaudette will get a healthy raise of up to a million dollars more; Tanev probably $5 million or more on a short term deal.  That is pretty much all our cap space even assuming a rise of a couple million to the ceiling.  It highlights a critical need to get one of Eriksson; Sutter; or Baertschi off the books just to have enough room that our roster doesn't get worse next season and even have a chance of filling a hole or two.
 

Sutter or Baertschi shouldn't be TOO tough to move, it means adding a sweetener or a prospect or pick.  Eriksson if we can't get him to retire means moving a high pick or a higher prospect like Madden out in order to move... but that should also be on the table since the opportunity cost of not having that cap space will cost us valuable pieces that we have to let go or cost us the ability to make moves to solidify our roster.

We might need Hoglander and one of Juolevi/Rafferty in the lineup just to have cheap ELCs filling roster spots.  None of the math even considers adding a guy like Tryamkin who would cost in the $2-3 million range most likely to have him leave the comfort of the KHL.

(In before the inevitable comments to just sit back and enjoy... am enjoying our current season and how things are going... but it is actually possible to think about more than one thing at the same time).
 

Provost I couldn't have said it better.  I haven't read any of the replies yet - partially because I don't want any influence in my reply.  I've been saying for months that re-signing Markstrom most likely mean the end of Demko on our team (without some serious crunching that would include a fairly big sacrifice) and have also been thinking for a while that next years roster won't be as good (on paper anyways) and that this year has a lot of the same feel as when Luongo first came (I believe we made the playoffs and then didn't). 

 

Our future really depends on how ready the remainder of our prospects are - and no way do I want to see Madden leave just to get rid of some cap.  

 

Also have stated as far best cap advantage it's supposed to be right now as far as our cycle goes - this year and the next are our best years as far as loading up.  PIT did it and won a cup.  Then had to wait five years or so to do it again and we don't have the same luxury thanks to LE and Luongo.  Hey miracles do happen and you never know with parity these days ... but the OP is pretty much nailed it in every way.  This could be the best team we have for a couple of years while we wait for the core to mature and wait for the core to get paid.  Once they do we simply can't afford the luxury of guys like Sutter, Beagle, Pearson, Ferland, Edler, Roussel, Edler etc. 

 

I think management was one year off on their predictions.  As in things were one year ahead of schedule.   It's created a lot of cap issues with a glut of middle six forwards on fair but pricey contracts.

 

JM probably doesn't deserve more then 5 x 4 IMO but his importance to the club and his play the past year had changed thing too.   He's just now getting some recognition...and if he keeps but it up will definitely get top dollar as a UFA which won't be easy on the cap for us to keep him.  Goalies scare the crap out of me.  I hope JM isn't parlaying one year into a contract that will hurt the team later.   He's slowly making me a believer.  But he's not elite yet. Bobrovsky and Vasilevsky both haven't had great years and they dethroned Price who's also had his issues the past few years.  Warning.  Goalies are very fickle and even the elite don't always produce.   Is JM the second coming of Thomas?  No he is not , but right now he's a top ten guy.  So has Smith, Elliot, Varlamov and another 200 goalies in the past. 

 

If I was JB I would continue to give fair raises with the guys you mentioned, and just stand pat with the rest.  Don't give up our prospects and just take our medicine next year.   Promote our AHL guys and see how it goes, and look for cheap one year deals on aging vets (ALA Perry) next year.   It won't be easy - but giving up picks and our prospects will scuttle our chances when we are peaking in two or three years from now.

 

Guys like Leivo and Pearson will likely be our payment to do this. And likely Demko. 

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24 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

.... can you really tell me Nik and Rafferty are a step down from Tanev and Stecher?

Yes...definitely yes... they are a big step down.  Both our current guys have shown they can play top pairing minutes without any big issues.

 

Having a right side of Myers, Tryamkin, and Rafferty is a huge step down from that stability.  One of those guys can likely come in as our 3rd pairing guy, but expecting more than that is dreaming and risking an entire season when we need to show progress to re-sign our stars at a decent price.

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50 minutes ago, Provost said:

The math doesn't seem to work like you say, and I don't see how Baertschi falls off without trading him.  He has a limited career at this point and hasn't made so much that he can walk away from millions of dollars.

We have Schaller dropping off who can be replaced for cheaper.  That is a million saved, compared with many millions in raises for current players we would want to re-sign.

Every other player dropping off will require a more expensive replacement (another player or themselves at a raise) as they are providing efficient value for their production.  Maybe we can replace Stecher with a cheaper 3rd pairing D, but it is at at the cost of quality and having a guy that can move up to the top 4 in case of injury.  Do we think we can replace Leivo's projected 40 points for $1.5 million or less?

My math is, we will have about 21.5 million to work with during the summer. This is based on Baerstchi either being traded or being bought out.

 

I think Stecher gets moved to make room for Tryamkin, and as @Alflives has suggested, I think Eriksson could easily retire this summer after he gets his bonus cheque, although I haven't calculated on that. I think they will try and resign Tanev (5 - 5.5 million), Markstrom (5 - 6 million), and that you'll see Virtanen resigned (about 2.5 million), Motte (1.5 million), Gaudette (1.5 million), 

I think you'll see Canucks let go of anyone I haven't listed and look to replace from players developing in Utica. I don't think Levo will be back for example, unless its at a rate that is close to what he's making now.

 

All teams in the NHL are going to be tight again this summer, NO ONE is going to be looking to overspend on free agents. Will be really surprised if anyone does.

 

Keep in mind, we will continue to have LTIR, we do every year.

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Miller - Pettersson - Boeser

Hoglander - Horvat - Pearson

Ferland - Gaudette - Virtanen

Roussel - Beagle - Motte

Schaller

 

Edler - Myers

Hughes - Tanev

Tryamkin - Rafferty

Benn

Fantenberg

Juolevi

 

Bye - Eriksson, Sutter, Stecher, Baertschi, Leivo

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2 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

My math is, we will have about 21.5 million to work with during the summer. This is based on Baerstchi either being traded or being bought out.

 

I think Stecher gets moved to make room for Tryamkin, and as @Alflives has suggested, I think Eriksson could easily retire this summer after he gets his bonus cheque, although I haven't calculated on that. I think they will try and resign Tanev (5 - 5.5 million), Markstrom (5 - 6 million), and that you'll see Virtanen resigned (about 2.5 million), Motte (1.5 million), Gaudette (1.5 million), 

I think you'll see Canucks let go of anyone I haven't listed and look to replace from players developing in Utica. I don't think Levo will be back for example, unless its at a rate that is close to what he's making now.

 

All teams in the NHL are going to be tight again this summer, NO ONE is going to be looking to overspend on free agents. Will be really surprised if anyone does.

 

Keep in mind, we will continue to have LTIR, we do every year.

We can’t count on the LTIR until it happens, and a you can’t just make Baertschi disappear... he has to be moved, which was one of my main points.
 

The other thing I haven’t mentioned yet because it is too scary to think about, is that unless things change this season, we are looking at pushing $2-3 million of ELC bonus overages into next season which reduces our cap even further into disastrous territory.

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There will be some changes for next season, for sure, but why worry about it now?  Let's enjoy this season and worry about it after the Canucks is in off-season after their final game, whether it be regular season or the playoffs.   We will know more who is deserving of staying here and who is deserving of dealt away at the end of the season.  There will be deals to be made to unload the cap.  There will be GM out there will want some of our players if they performs in the playoffs and Benning feels that his prospects is ready for the role if Utica is in a deep playoff run.  Benning has to identify who is the core of the forward groups and the defence and figure it out afterward.   Supporting cast can be easily replaced  for cheap price but the core is not replaceable.  Also, don't forget that we are allowed 10% above the cap in the off-season and figure out the roster spots at the end of the training camp.  There's also a buyout candidates to free up some of the cap to undeserving players but I can't see anyone who is under contract next season deserving of a buyout yet.  

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Lots of time and lots variables yet to have been determine to start panicking right now.

 

Every year half the nhl teams are in the exact same situation the Canucks are at the moment.   Somehow, it always work out in the end.  I'm not worried a bit.  Honestly, I really hope we don't re-sign Tanev base on one healthy year.  I love the guy, but his contract will probably hamper us more than if we lose him.    Unless the price is really good.

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5 minutes ago, Provost said:

We can’t count on the LTIR until it happens, and a you can’t just make Baertschi disappear... he has to be moved, which was one of my main points.
 

The other thing I haven’t mentioned yet because it is too scary to think about, is that unless things change this season, we are looking at pushing $2-3 million of ELC bonus overages into next season which reduces our cap even further into disastrous territory.

Its going to be tight. If you think I'm trying to say that we will have lots of room, I'm not. We will have enough, but its going to be tight.

 

The biggest point is though, its going to be tight for ALL teams in the league, so it helps reduce factors that are driving contract rates up. We are going to have to do some juggling, but I'm confident that Benning has the room to do this.

 

Baerstchi will be easier to move in the off season. If we can't trade him, we probably buy him out. It would mean 1.7 million and change hit next season and 800k the following. I'm hoping that we'll be able to do something at the draft in the neighborhood of trading him to a team with a 4th round pick and say 500k retained.

 

This will be a balancing act, might see someone like Benn also being shipped out, maybe down to play with his brother in Dallas.

 

Its crazy when you look in CapFriendly, at how little space a lot of the teams will have next summer. Everyone is going to have some really hard decisions to make.

 

Keep in mind as well, there are teams out there, like Ottawa, who will have in the neighborhood of 40 million in Cap Space next summer and currently only 8 people signed. They might be a target to do some creative trading with since they are looking for some warm bodies who can augment their lineup until their developing players are really ready to take over. Would they consider a deal where they take Eriksson and a 3rd or 4th round draft pick, with 3 million retained? They would eat up 6 million in cap space for the bargain basement price of 1 million in actual cost per year. The only reason Ottawa made it to the league minimum this year is due to all those LTIR players on their roster, guys who will never play again. They have an owner who likes to eat up space on the cheap. He might be willing to take a gamble on doing that type of a deal. Canucks will have lots of leverage with Eriksson since this is his last year of full NTC, and the idea that they could threaten him with demotion to Utica next season will make him much more open to destinations.

 

Going to be interesting to see how this plays out, but I trust Benning to figure out the options and navigate us through to another competitive team next season.

 

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40 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

Miller - Pettersson - Boeser

Hoglander - Horvat - Pearson

Ferland - Gaudette - Virtanen

Roussel - Beagle - Motte

Schaller

 

Edler - Myers

Hughes - Tanev

Tryamkin - Rafferty

Benn

Fantenberg

Juolevi

 

Bye - Eriksson, Sutter, Stecher, Baertschi, Leivo

looks good to me  I just hope jim can do his magic to get rid of loui , sven and sutter  ,  resigning schaller to a value contract I am ok with  ,  Ferland I hope he can come back  if not big zack or lind can fill in 

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56 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

I think next year is a great chance to compete for the cup though, with our two best players on the last year of their ELC's.

I suppose if thats true, someone will take Loui and our 2021 1st and someone else would take Sutter + 2020 2nd + a good prospect. Burns a big chunk of our future but would also clear 10 mil of cap space. 
 

I think Benning could do this yesterday if he was willing to pay this price, but he needed to see what he really had in Hughes, and how Petey and Brocks years would go.

 

So take your pick, wait one more year and save the picks/prospects or burn them now to shed salary and make a real run next year. I think if the current group is good enough to make it and say has a 1st round exit, I could see Jim burning the future for a "now" top 6 or top pairing d addition. 

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If you look at Ottawa for next season they have 5 UFA forwards to sign or not sign, 5 RFA forwards to deal with, and im not sure if they get  much of a pay increase. They have 2 UFA and 2 RFA defenders to sign (although Chabot gets a massive increase), unlikely to resign Anderson at $4.75M (he is 38 y/o). They lose Callahan, MacArthur and Hainsey off the IR and who knows what will happen with Bobby Ryan.

They are going to need to spend some to get to the cap. I understand they may have a real go at building a team, they have lots of very good young players but are they quite ready?

Heres my two cents...

Eriksson after paying him a signing bonus next year of $3M, that leaves just $1M base salary for next year and $4M for year after ($5M wages with $12M cap hit.) surely thats got Eugene Melnyk salivating. You would think a deal could be brokered here???

Maybe they would actually be interested in Sutter as well as they need some "foundational players" to slot in with their young guys???

 

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Tanev may simply walk (assuming not traded because - playoffs...though I'd not personally be opposed, depending on the return). As will Leivo, Schaller and Fantenberg likely.

 

Next year Tryamkin ($2.5m +/-?) and Rafferty ($700K) replace Tanev ($4.45) and Stecher ($2.325). That's $3.75m savings right there. Motte will only see a moderate raise. Virtanen likely sees a bit of a bump. Gaudette likely gets a similar bridge to the one Virtanen's on now.

 

Marky's really the biggest conundrum as he's likely due at MINIMUM a $2m raise (and likely more). But Baer will only have one year left and will likely be easier to move this summer/next fall and at a slightly lower cost in futures, which hopefully clears a bit more space. Same goes for Sutter and Benn as possibilities. Even with just some of those moves, and a likely cap increase, should be enough to squeak everyone in and have a few guys on low dollar ELC/bridge deals filling in depth roles. 

 

It's a bit of a challenge but it's far from insurmountable...and doesn't require any 'miracles'.

 

Swapping Tanev/Stecher for Try/Rafferty should cover Marky's raise +/-. Dropping Schaller for an ELC should cover Virtanen's +/-. Leivo for an ELC covers Gaudette's +/-. A cap increase should cover Motte + give us some breathing room.

 

If we're also able to move a Baer or Sutter (or Gordie willing Eriksson moves/retires) etc, it's just gravy and some added elbow room.

 

Stop worrying. They've got this. It's not that bad.

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In the #riggeddeckleague favoured teams will get deals(like w/Ottawa) before we'll ever land such consideration. EG, they'll take someone like Backes from Broons

 

Otherwise they wouldn't have made us the ones to get the truly significant cap recap penalty. Just don't count on that option.

 

Really dislike buyouts. But buying out Baer & Sutter opens about 4 mill next yr. The subsequent yr we lose 2 mill(total)..but it seems we'll need lots for the two young stars.

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18 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I suppose if thats true, someone will take Loui and our 2021 1st and someone else would take Sutter + 2020 2nd + a good prospect. Burns a big chunk of our future but would also clear 10 mil of cap space. 
 

I think Benning could do this yesterday if he was willing to pay this price, but he needed to see what he really had in Hughes, and how Petey and Brocks years would go.

 

So take your pick, wait one more year and save the picks/prospects or burn them now to shed salary and make a real run next year. I think if the current group is good enough to make it and say has a 1st round exit, I could see Jim burning the future for a "now" top 6 or top pairing d addition. 

We need a gift from the hockey gods, Eriksson retiring next year would be godsend. I dont think it would be that much to move Sutter, he would be on his final year of contract and is still a good third line guy. Sutter would only be owed $3.5 million for one year after his signing bonus.

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1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said:

Miller - Pettersson - Boeser

Hoglander - Horvat - Pearson

Ferland - Gaudette - Virtanen

Roussel - Beagle - Motte

Schaller

 

Edler - Myers

Hughes - Tanev

Tryamkin - Rafferty

Benn

Fantenberg

Juolevi

 

Bye - Eriksson, Sutter, Stecher, Baertschi, Leivo

Schallers contract is up at the end of this year 

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The math is not as OK as some of you are claiming.  You say most of the teams are right to the cap next year, but at the same time say we can just trade away salary to those same teams for only a small sweetener.  Every team will be trying to dump salary to the 2-3 teams with space and the actual dollars to spend.  The “Ottawa will take Eriksson” chant has been on for a long time but we  haven’t done it and they will have a couple dozen suitors lining up to foist cap space onto them.

 

Assuming the cap rises by $2 million. That is $20 million to sign 10 players.

 

With status quo, we will push $3 million of ELC bonuses into next year.  That leaves $17 million to sign 10 players.

 

We have to keep $3 million in cap space next season because we know Petterson and Hughes will hit their bonuses again next year and definitely can’t afford to push those bonuses into the year that they come off their ELCs and get paid.  We won’t have enough cap coming off to pay those two guys and replace the vets on expiring contracts. That leaves $14 million to sign 10 players next season.  Signing Markstrom, Virtanen, Gaudette, and Tanev (or another top 4 D) takes all of that and we still have 6 roster spots to fill.

 

It doesn’t “all just work out”, it requires moves to be made... and those moves will cost us.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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