riffraff Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 hours ago, kingofsurrey said: World is not a fair place... /thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 hours ago, aGENT said: As I posted earlier, the race to the bottom seems to only be getting worse. And as automation continues, it's only going to get worse and effect far more than just millenials ability to spend. In a consumer economy, you simply can't expect to keep reducing pay and at the same time expect the economy to keep rolling. Without numerous, well paying jobs (or some new monetary system), we're basically f'd. But at least Bezos and the like are worth $10B... Makes me wonder if I should just keep my +/- $350k from our house sale in the bank for now... Gold....honestly its looking like a very safe haven over the next 14 months or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 56 minutes ago, Warhippy said: Gold....honestly its looking like a very safe haven over the next 14 months or so Right now it's in a low interest, but liquid, GIC. If we end up renting rather than buying, that will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 So, great indicators or common stress tests of economic/trade scenarios include the PEST and SWOT analysis Political Economic Social Technological and Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats These are agendas every analyst must make before engaging in trade/economic decisions. As of right now there is ongoing conflict in the middle east. Political. Canada is set to lose almost 100,000 jobs in the next 5 years to technological automation. Technological. Ongoing issues with private landowners, first nations bands and a social movement towards divestment of fossil fuel dependency. Social. Economic...well, look at that debt. Our strengths rest in our resource sector which takes hit after hit after hit. Our weaknesses lie in the same area, due to the US emerging as an energy exporter, lumber issues and constant trade issues with China and the US we cannot get our footing. Our opportunities lie in our recent trade compacts but the EU is currently under threat from BREXIT so the CETA is up in the air, the new NAFTA is being ignored by the US president who seems happy to level tariffs on anyone depending on the day regardless of agreements. The newest threat is currently coming from China with the Coronavirus which threatens to bring travel and thus trade to a halt. During the SARS epidemic China lost between .8% and 2% of their GDP or stymied growth. As of right now every possible scenario that could trigger an economic meltdown is there. So...pay off your debt? Maybe I'm doom and gloom but long term we look good, but the bumps in the road are kind of frightening in their number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob_Zepp Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 On 1/20/2020 at 10:45 AM, Kragar said: Necessity, or ignorance? Obviously a mix of both, but I wonder how many of those not saving and living paycheck to paycheck enjoy their regular avocado toast and latte, iPhone 11, and lease a nice car. mmmm, Avocado toast..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 It appears as though China and stock markets are feeling the effects of the coronavirus and ongoing trade disputes. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/coronavirus-bank-of-china-liquidity-1.5449224 https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tsx-markets-dow-1.5448061 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted February 25, 2020 Author Share Posted February 25, 2020 Economic blockades. Warnings of stocking up in the event of a pandemic. Sell offs of property starting in Vancouver and the GTA Is this the start of the obvious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted February 27, 2020 Author Share Posted February 27, 2020 (edited) The DWo and various stocks in Europe and Asia all falling today with the DOW officially falling in to correction territory. Ongoing protests are now visibly harming the Canadian economy via issues with rail and transport. not enough to generally budge the needle but enough to start concerning investors. Housing prices keep dropping for luxury homes and vacant homes are starting to continue to grow. Where does this all lead? The belief that the recession of 2008 never really ended is starting to grow and it's hard to argue that sentiment isn't wrong Edited February 27, 2020 by Warhippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spur1 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 35 minutes ago, Warhippy said: The DWo and various stocks in Europe and Asia all falling today with the DOW officially falling in to correction territory. Ongoing protests are now visibly harming the Canadian economy via issues with rail and transport. not enough to generally budge the needle but enough to start concerning investors. Housing prices keep dropping for luxury homes and vacant homes are starting to continue to grow. Where does this all lead? The belief that the recession of 2008 never really ended is starting to grow and it's hard to argue that sentiment isn't wrong For me 2008 was a result of Reagan’s trickledown and cutting of the rich and corporate tax. Trump has doubled down on this. Trickledown was the policy in the 1920s too by the way and we all know where that led to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted February 27, 2020 Author Share Posted February 27, 2020 1 hour ago, spur1 said: For me 2008 was a result of Reagan’s trickledown and cutting of the rich and corporate tax. Trump has doubled down on this. Trickledown was the policy in the 1920s too by the way and we all know where that led to. it will be interesting to see what overall effect the protests and the ongoing corona virus issues play in things over the next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 I think the virus fallout is the great unknown. Originally branded another SARS and measured in a couple of months. Now a lot of? Many of who I read anticipated a 10% pullback this spring and then gains in H2 with an anticipated Trump re-election. The Trump re-election does not change the long term reality of a massive debt crisis that will likely last a decade. Once confidence is lost in the governments ability to manage spending will crater. We we have never experienced a market pullback with the level of ETF participation as now. It will likely exasperate volatility and drive markets even further down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted February 27, 2020 Author Share Posted February 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, Boudrias said: I think the virus fallout is the great unknown. Originally branded another SARS and measured in a couple of months. Now a lot of? Many of who I read anticipated a 10% pullback this spring and then gains in H2 with an anticipated Trump re-election. The Trump re-election does not change the long term reality of a massive debt crisis that will likely last a decade. Once confidence is lost in the governments ability to manage spending will crater. We we have never experienced a market pullback with the level of ETF participation as now. It will likely exasperate volatility and drive markets even further down. Canadian stock indexes have the benefit of having so much gold. labeled on them so they're currently not feeling the same strain on Bay st as Wall st but it's interesting to see what will happen over the next few weeks/month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancaster Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Just remember that whatever happens with Wall Street isn't reflective to Main Street. My losses are currently into the thousands this week... but the majority of my stocks relate to REIT and high dividend consumable.... stuff that doesn't really relate to the coronavirus or slow down in the economy. Some spending habits may change, but whatever the case is... people still need to rent places to live and still need to shop at grocery stores for food. For example... lets just say you own stocks in Kimberly-Clark... a paper producing company and other hygiene related stuff. How does the coronavirus affects them? People still buy toilet paper, businesses still need paper for printing, nothing really changes materially.... yet the stock is off 10%. When people are afraid, they sell. If they are on margin... they really need to sell. The Great Recession happened... but we're all still alive to talk about it. The world didn't collapse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 The entirety of the world's economic outlook is being downgraded. Canada included. 40% risk of a recession https://business.financialpost.com/executive/posthaste-canadas-recession-odds-at-worrisome-40-as-mounting-risks-test-economys-stall-speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBH1926 Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 5 hours ago, Lancaster said: Just remember that whatever happens with Wall Street isn't reflective to Main Street. My losses are currently into the thousands this week... but the majority of my stocks relate to REIT and high dividend consumable.... stuff that doesn't really relate to the coronavirus or slow down in the economy. Some spending habits may change, but whatever the case is... people still need to rent places to live and still need to shop at grocery stores for food. For example... lets just say you own stocks in Kimberly-Clark... a paper producing company and other hygiene related stuff. How does the coronavirus affects them? People still buy toilet paper, businesses still need paper for printing, nothing really changes materially.... yet the stock is off 10%. When people are afraid, they sell. If they are on margin... they really need to sell. The Great Recession happened... but we're all still alive to talk about it. The world didn't collapse. When $&!# hits the fan and panic ensues, no stock is safe. Today American water works, waste management, nextera energy etc. all dropped tremendously. There is no logical reason for it but it happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedestroyerofworlds Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Warhippy said: The entirety of the world's economic outlook is being downgraded. Canada included. 40% risk of a recession https://business.financialpost.com/executive/posthaste-canadas-recession-odds-at-worrisome-40-as-mounting-risks-test-economys-stall-speed Well last year there were US treasury inversions. Those inversions have indicated economic downturns or recessions 12 to 24 months later. We're coming up on 12 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, thedestroyerofworlds said: Well last year there were US treasury inversions. Those inversions have indicated economic downturns or recessions 12 to 24 months later. We're coming up on 12 months. Political Economic Social Technological Every aspect of the standard analysis is met for turmoil. I think the entire world slips in the next 18 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 7 hours ago, Warhippy said: Canadian stock indexes have the benefit of having so much gold. labeled on them so they're currently not feeling the same strain on Bay st as Wall st but it's interesting to see what will happen over the next few weeks/month They also have the detraction of oil and natural gas. Oil buckled under $46/barrel today. And our Canadian turd oil trades at a $23 dollar/barrel discount to that. Natural gas hit the lowest it's traded at since early 2016. There is so much natural gas out there some companies are flaring it just to get rid of it. 15 minutes ago, CBH1926 said: When $&!# hits the fan and panic ensues, no stock is safe. Today American water works, waste management, nextera energy etc. all dropped tremendously. There is no logical reason for it but it happens. The logic is they sell the winners to raise cash to cover the losers. Speaking of panic. I haven't seen much panic yet. The selling has been pretty orderly to this point. Which is a little disturbing to be honest. 11 minutes ago, thedestroyerofworlds said: Well last year there were US treasury inversions. Those inversions have indicated economic downturns or recessions 12 to 24 months later. We're coming up on 12 months. The inversions were pretty minor. If I recall correctly, the first one where 2 yr yields inverted with 10's was for like 3 hours, the second was for maybe 2 days. The market is going to force the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively. The yield on the US 10yr treasury is currently at an all time low of 1.25%. While the Fed is currently at 1.75%. Something has to give and it's going to be the Fed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, Warhippy said: Political Economic Social Technological Every aspect of the standard analysis is met for turmoil. I think the entire world slips in the next 18 months I don’t agree with most of what you have to say but can agree with you on this. If the virus triggers a recession that is deep a crisis in confidence of government will likely ensue. With the existing political split in America it does not bode well for anyone. When government cannot meet their social contracts order will break down quickly. No one today has any grasp of the fallout. Immigrants from countries who have failed know. I am a boomer and can recall stories my parents and grandparents told me. Very scary. Debt is the issue. When confidence is lost it won’t make any difference what Trump says, Sanders or J.T. These people are part of the problem. They come from a long line of BS’ers who were quite happy to load up the people with debt they knew couldn’t be paid. There is always an accounting and it is never pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted February 28, 2020 Author Share Posted February 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, Boudrias said: I don’t agree with most of what you have to say but can agree with you on this. If the virus triggers a recession that is deep a crisis in confidence of government will likely ensue. With the existing political split in America it does not bode well for anyone. When government cannot meet their social contracts order will break down quickly. No one today has any grasp of the fallout. Immigrants from countries who have failed know. I am a boomer and can recall stories my parents and grandparents told me. Very scary. Debt is the issue. When confidence is lost it won’t make any difference what Trump says, Sanders or J.T. These people are part of the problem. They come from a long line of BS’ers who were quite happy to load up the people with debt they knew couldn’t be paid. There is always an accounting and it is never pretty. None of this will truly be the fault of anyone in power in Canada no matter who it is. We're so heavily dependant on everything outside of our nation for our nation to work economically. Hewers of wood, carriers of water and all. The housing market issue, debt levels between private citizens and business. They've been growing unchecked since 2008 or so. This could very well be the catalyst that sets it all off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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