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Warhippy

[Discussion] Will the Next one be the Worst Recession in History?

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19 minutes ago, Tortorella's Rant said:

So how bad will this likely get?

In all honesty, the floors the limit.

 

Oil usage is way down

Travel is down

Stocks are tanking

China's factories are shuttered

Korea and Italy are no go zones

Rail transport is affected in Canada, Asia and Europe

Starting to see luxury home sell offs occurring in the GTA, GVA

Personal debt levels are at record highs

Trade wars caused by the US continue

Energy prices are tanking

 

We've been staring down global recession for 3 years, housing bubble for 10 or more.  This could be the potential catalyst for a national and global crisis.

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17 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

They also have the detraction of oil and natural gas. Oil buckled under $46/barrel today. And our Canadian turd oil trades at a $23 dollar/barrel discount to that.  Natural gas hit the lowest it's traded at since early 2016. There is so much natural gas out there some companies are flaring it just to get rid of it.

 

The logic is they sell the winners to raise cash to cover the losers. Speaking of panic. I haven't seen much panic yet. The selling has been pretty orderly to this point. Which is a little disturbing to be honest.

 

The inversions were pretty minor. If I recall correctly, the first one where 2 yr yields inverted with 10's was for like 3 hours, the second was for maybe 2 days.

 

The market is going to force the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively. The yield on the US 10yr treasury is currently at an all time low of 1.25%. While the Fed is currently at 1.75%. Something has to give and it's going to be the Fed.

I go by Buffets “be greedy when others are fearful” today I bought almost 25k worth of stocks.

Invest in great companies and results will get there eventually.

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2 minutes ago, CBH1926 said:

I go by Buffets “be greedy when others are fearful” today I bought almost 25k worth of stocks.

Invest in great companies and results will get there eventually.

Like I posted in the Investment thread, I believe we put in at least a temporary bottom today.

 

I suspect you made a good decision today and will be rewarded. B)

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On 1/13/2020 at 10:01 PM, nuckin_futz said:

I do know this, volatility seems very underpriced at the current moment.

 

vix.jpg

 

::D 

Edited by nuckin_futz

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Maybe  crypto currency is an option . Not Bitcoin , something more affordable , maybe Dash ? 

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On 1/20/2020 at 6:34 PM, Warhippy said:

Gold....honestly its looking like a very safe haven over the next 14 months or so

and silver.....    most of my investing goes into these 2 physical assets . Gold and silver has stood the test of time

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On 2/28/2020 at 8:22 AM, Warhippy said:

In all honesty, the floors the limit.

 

Oil usage is way down

Travel is down

Stocks are tanking

China's factories are shuttered

Korea and Italy are no go zones

Rail transport is affected in Canada, Asia and Europe

Starting to see luxury home sell offs occurring in the GTA, GVA

Personal debt levels are at record highs

Trade wars caused by the US continue

Energy prices are tanking

 

We've been staring down global recession for 3 years, housing bubble for 10 or more.  This could be the potential catalyst for a national and global crisis.

REALLY wondering if I should buy a house now or rent for a year'ish....

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1 hour ago, aGENT said:

REALLY wondering if I should buy a house now or rent for a year'ish....

House prices dropping 10-20 percent in metro....    time to hold off i would think.

 

My daughter is looking to buy a first home  maybe in the next 12 months though......

 

People that bought recently may have to wait a few years.... before they see positive equity.

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8 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:

House prices dropping 10-20 percent in metro....    time to hold off i would think.

 

My daughter is looking to buy a first home  maybe in the next 12 months though......

 

People that bought recently may have to wait a few years.... before they see positive equity.

Buying on island and they haven't seemed to come down there since a small drop last summer. 

 

Just came in second offering on a place with 5 offers their first day of listing. 

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13 hours ago, aGENT said:

Buying on island and they haven't seemed to come down there since a small drop last summer. 

 

Just came in second offering on a place with 5 offers their first day of listing. 

I’ve mentioned before I’m sure.  But I’ve been contracting in the same subdivision three years this March and I estimate another year or close to it in the same spot .

south island land is being developed non stop for every type of zoning there is.

 

literally blasting away cliff sides to make room for who ever is coming over!?!?

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13 hours ago, kingofsurrey said:

House prices dropping 10-20 percent in metro....    time to hold off i would think.

 

My daughter is looking to buy a first home  maybe in the next 12 months though......

 

People that bought recently may have to wait a few years.... before they see positive equity.

Housing prices are stupid high in town.  Hope they drop 50%.  Nothing like a real estate collapse to to kill the BC economy.  God it is coming.  Makes kind of happy inside.  Lazy losers will actually have to work, because governments won’t have s tax base.  Awesome.  No more free government handouts. 

Great news King!

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Might as well just drop this in here ............

 

Bank of Canada cuts rates by 50 basis points vs a 25 cut expected

Wed 4 Mar 2020 15:00:07 GMT

 

Bank of Canada interest rate decision highlights:

  • The overnight rate was lowered to 1.25%
  • Prior was 1.75%
  • Stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required
  • Outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January
  • Coronavirus is a material negative shock to Canadian and global outlook
  • Business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted
  • It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity.
  • It is becoming clear that the first quarter of 2020 will be weaker than the Bank had expected
  • Rail line blockades, strikes by Ontario teachers, and winter storms in some regions are dampening economic activity in the first quarter

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13 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Might as well just drop this in here ............

 

Bank of Canada cuts rates by 50 basis points vs a 25 cut expected

Wed 4 Mar 2020 15:00:07 GMT

 

Bank of Canada interest rate decision highlights:

  • The overnight rate was lowered to 1.25%
  • Prior was 1.75%
  • Stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required
  • Outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January
  • Coronavirus is a material negative shock to Canadian and global outlook
  • Business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted
  • It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity.
  • It is becoming clear that the first quarter of 2020 will be weaker than the Bank had expected
  • Rail line blockades, strikes by Ontario teachers, and winter storms in some regions are dampening economic activity in the first quarter

This was expected after the US and major European markets did the same yesterday.

 

What IS odd is how this is occurring and is based on consumer confidence and supply.  The drop is predicated on ensuring people keep purchasing.  The issue is supply is dwindling, people are literally maxed out for debt and have zero room for more borrowing and cannot spend more.

 

The entire global outlook is grim and reaching towards negative interest rates is not going to stimulate it.  This stimulus is exactly what has been keeping the world afloat since 2008.  The Monday markets reflected the proverbial dead cat bounce we see after major sell offs but the major markets cutting rates yesterday did not in fact budge the needle.

 

Personally, I'd say the government would be best enacting legislation to protect Canadian housing and business from foreign purchasing when this falls apart.  No party in power can control what is coming and no party is responsible for what's coming.  It's all starting to crumble

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1 hour ago, riffraff said:

I’ve mentioned before I’m sure.  But I’ve been contracting in the same subdivision three years this March and I estimate another year or close to it in the same spot .

south island land is being developed non stop for every type of zoning there is.

 

literally blasting away cliff sides to make room for who ever is coming over!?!?

Yeah and I thought about it more last night. If I was to rent something for +/- $2k/month for a year'ish. That's $24k + that houses would need to come down just to break even vs buying now, never mind get ahead (or additional moving costs, PITA for kids/schools etc).

 

Certainly not unfathomable given current economic events, and they could even come down more than that (though as you point out, not as likely, given the current market over there). But the difference is not likely to be enough ($80,000+) to not just buy now. We plan on being there 10-20 years too, with near 50% down, so it 's not like we need to flip it in a couple years or are at much risk of getting upside down.

 

PS: We're looking more mid-island. Back to the search.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

This was expected after the US and major European markets did the same yesterday.

 

What IS odd is how this is occurring and is based on consumer confidence and supply.  The drop is predicated on ensuring people keep purchasing.  The issue is supply is dwindling, people are literally maxed out for debt and have zero room for more borrowing and cannot spend more.

 

The entire global outlook is grim and reaching towards negative interest rates is not going to stimulate it.  This stimulus is exactly what has been keeping the world afloat since 2008.  The Monday markets reflected the proverbial dead cat bounce we see after major sell offs but the major markets cutting rates yesterday did not in fact budge the needle.

 

Personally, I'd say the government would be best enacting legislation to protect Canadian housing and business from foreign purchasing when this falls apart.  No party in power can control what is coming and no party is responsible for what's coming.  It's all starting to crumble

They didn't budge and in fact dropped quite a bit because a 1300 point gain a lot to digest in 1 day. When markets are so volatile profit taking will come in when you have a move like that. Plus when the Fed cuts outside of a scheduled meeting it tends to rattle investors. It's a very rare occurrence.

 

I agree with you that the situation is dire. However the money pump is not going to stop and is just going into overdrive. The yields on US treasuries were the last holdout. Those yields have buckled recently. The 10yr note is now yielding just .957%. It will fall to .5, possibly even go negative. Which will force the Fed to cut rates further. The cheap money is about to get even cheaper.

 

There is an acronym on Wall St "TINA" stands for There Is No Alternative (to stocks). With bonds yielding nada there is nowhere else for the cheap money to go other than to inflate asset bubbles.

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4 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

They didn't budge and in fact dropped quite a bit because a 1300 point gain a lot to digest in 1 day. When markets are so volatile profit taking will come in when you have a move like that. Plus when the Fed cuts outside of a scheduled meeting it tends to rattle investors. It's a very rare occurrence.

 

I agree with you that the situation is dire. However the money pump is not going to stop and is just going into overdrive. The yields on US treasuries were the last holdout. Those yields have buckled recently. The 10yr note is now yielding just .957%. It will fall to .5, possibly even go negative. Which will force the Fed to cut rates further. The cheap money is about to get even cheaper.

 

There is an acronym on Wall St "TINA" stands for There Is No Alternative (to stocks). With bonds yielding nada there is nowhere else for the cheap money to go other than to inflate asset bubbles.

Now, please correct me if I am wrong because I am still not totally up to speed on things.

 

One of the worries is that the US, under their current debt load is now just printing money.  There are fears that investors/trading nations are starting to realize that the US greenback is not worth the paper it is printed on.  Any further stimulus will only be countered by further needed stimulus.  Economists predicted that once the money ran out from trumps package that within 6 months the inevitable would happen, but that this has effectively forced the US to keep printing and keep spending.  Gighest non war/non recession spending in US history or some such thing.

 

If investors outright lose confidence what exactly does that mean for the US and the markets in general?  I know you don't make up gains in short order to offset the size of losses we saw last week globally but is this the proverbial straw economists have been speaking of over the last 3 years?

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8 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Now, please correct me if I am wrong because I am still not totally up to speed on things.

 

One of the worries is that the US, under their current debt load is now just printing money.  There are fears that investors/trading nations are starting to realize that the US greenback is not worth the paper it is printed on.  Any further stimulus will only be countered by further needed stimulus.  Economists predicted that once the money ran out from trumps package that within 6 months the inevitable would happen, but that this has effectively forced the US to keep printing and keep spending.  Gighest non war/non recession spending in US history or some such thing.

 

If investors outright lose confidence what exactly does that mean for the US and the markets in general?  I know you don't make up gains in short order to offset the size of losses we saw last week globally but is this the proverbial straw economists have been speaking of over the last 3 years?

Of course the US is just printing money, but so is everyone else. What it comes down to is that the USA is the cleanest dirty shirt in the pile.They are the world's reserve currency and they control the printing press. You have to put your money somewhere and everyone else is worse.

 

Well investing is all about visibility and confidence. But the USA will be the last place investors lose confidence in. Sadly Hip, I think the money pump and kicking of the can down the road will continue for sometime. The only thing I see that will bring down this global ponzi scheme is if inflation every gets out of control. Or in other words if central banks every lose control over inflation. When you have to pay +10% on your mountains of debt it's game over,.

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