[Discussion] Will the Next one be the Worst Recession in History?

[nuckin_futz]

Senate Democrats to offer a $750B stimulus package

Mon 16 Mar 2020 18:59:32 GMT

 

That's bigger than TARP

Bloomberg reports that Chuck Schumer will offer a $750 billion proposal to tackle the coronavirus, including:

• Direct cash transfers
• Unemployment benefits
• Medicaid funding boost
• COVID-19 testing
• Federal loan forbearance
• Small biz help
• Emergency child care
• Meds/food delivery for seniors

I feel like this is only the beginning. A $50B aviation bailout is already in the works. The deficit is going to hit $2 trillion, easily. I may be underestimating that by half as revenues collapse.

[Shift-4]

Headline can change from 'R' word to 'D' word   

[nuckin_futz]

[Warhippy]

25 minutes ago, Shift-4 said:

Headline can change from 'R' word to 'D' word   

So.  No debt.  Savings.  Paid off assets.

 

You're good.

 

Any of the above not fulfilled....oofff

[nuckin_futz]

This is where the moral hazard from the 2008 bank bailout becomes extraordinarily costly

Tue 17 Mar 2020 13:39:47 GMT

 

The costs of the 2008 bailout weren't then, they're now

 

The 2008 bank bailouts cost $700B but the real cost was far greater. 

 

The anger from the bailout is still fresh more than 11 years later. Americans are angry (and about to get more angry) that so many on Wall Street walked away unscathed and with millions in bonuses. Even those who were largely responsible for the bad loans and derivatives were saved. No one went to jail.

 

Now we have a virus situation where no one is responsible. This isn't anyone's fault. Yet millions of workers are about to lose their jobs, people won't be able to pay mortgages, small businesses will fail and industries will collapse.

 

By 2008-09 standards, everyone deserves a bailout more than ever. The standard has been set.

 

The bailouts also sent a signal to businesses that they didn't need to prepare for a rainy day. Many businesses were buying stock over the past 3 years rather than building cash positions -- airlines in particular (who spent 96% of free cash flow on buybacks). Financial advisors are always telling people to set aside 3-months of costs and yet some of the world's largest companies haven't done the same.

 

The first chapter in this bailout is airlines. By almost any standards they deserve some kind of bailout. These are essential economic services and these shutdowns are way beyond their control. The thing is, once you bail them out, you have to bail everyone out. If shareholders get bailout out it sends an awful, costly message. If cruise ships get bailed out it's an order of magnitude worse.

 

How is an airline being forced to shutdown any different than a restaurant? Or a worker who has lost his job due to the shutdown? Everyone deserves a bailout at this point and -- importantly -- everyone expects it because of what happened in 2008-09.

 

The problem is that the costs are going to be staggering. We will all be paying for this for the rest of our lives. The people who aren't bailed out will be paying for the ones who are and the anger that's going to seed is terrifying.

[HI5]

I just want to know how I can get my million

[nuckin_futz]

We're on the verge of helicopter money

Tue 17 Mar 2020 14:19:50 GMT

Support is building

 

Jake Sherman at Politico reports today that support is building in Washington to cut a $1000 cheque to every adult American.

 

Mitch McConnell just said Congress needs to provide direct assistance to workers, families and help small business.

 

In Canada today there were hints about several similar plans that could be rolled out tomorrow. In Denmark, companies are getting state aid to pay 75% of salaries.

 

I wrote last week about one of my worries right now: That governments everywhere aren't going to be able to process jobless claims fast enough. The wave that's about to hit will be unprecedented.

 

*******************

 

If you don't recognize him the guy in the picture is former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. AKA Helicopter Ben.

[Chicken.]

Well per the thread title... yep

 

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-goldman-sachs-declare-131347776.html 

 

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Declare Global Recession Under Way 

 

What’ Bloomberg’s Economists Say...

“We are downgrading our forecast for China’s 2020 growth. Our previous forecast for the year was growth at 5.2%. Our new forecast is 1.4%. That includes a 11% contraction in the first quarter.”

[nuckin_futz]

Mnuchin warns senators lack of action could result in 20% unemployment rate, source says

Washington (CNN)Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned Republican senators Tuesday morning that without action the coronavirus pandemic could drive up US unemployment to 20%, a Republican Senate source told CNN.

Mnuchin's comments came as he urged Republican senators to act on economic stimulus measures totaling $1 trillion designed to avert that kind of worst case scenario.

 

CNN has reached out to the Treasury Department for comment.

 

In the same meeting, Mnuchin also said he is concerned the economic ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic could be worse than the 2008 financial crisis, the source said.

 

Mnuchin's comments, first reported by Bloomberg News, come amid a rising sense of urgency at the White House and on Capitol Hill to confront the increasingly serious threat of the coronavirus pandemic -- on both the public health and economic fronts.

 

A 20% unemployment rate would be double the unemployment rate during the Great Recession and the highest in the US since the Great Depression. A 20% unemployment rate would leave more than 32 million Americans out of a job based on the current US labor force.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/steven-mnuchin-unemployment-warning-coronavirus/index.html

 

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Great recession 2009 unemployment rate reached 10.2%

Great Depression 1933 unemployment rate hit 24.9%