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Warhippy

[Discussion] Will the Next one be the Worst Recession in History?

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3 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:

Did you say still and shine.......

 

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Yup lol yea my barn sounding better and better now ah lol country boy can survive lol

 

edit * I can charge people to see the king of surrey in my barn lol I bet no one around theses parts have ever met a king before .....yikes that would be the talk of the town. 

Edited by RowdyCanuck
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2 minutes ago, RowdyCanuck said:

Yup lol yea my barn sounding better and better now ah lol country boy can survive lol

Lets just say you tweaked my interest in your organizations job posting....

 

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4 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:

Lets just say you tweaked my interest in your organizations job posting....

 

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Lol and just think if I have a king and if I can capture @Alflives , We could start a petting zoo, can you handle aliens? I'll handle the rest of the animals but I think your time in surrey trained you better to deal with alf lol

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3 minutes ago, RowdyCanuck said:

Lol and just think if I have a king and if I can capture @Alflives , We could start a petting zoo, can you handle aliens? I'll handle the rest of the animals but I think your time in surrey trained you better to deal with alf lol

If you have shine and a still......  Alf should be no worries...

 

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15 hours ago, kingofsurrey said:

I like Laguna....   do you think it is  / would be . a pretty cool spot to live..  I always find Newport pretty busy.... Laguna seems more quiet....

I hear Laguna is really nice.  Haven't been there a lot, but liked what I see.  Would make my commute so much worse though, so not a place I've ever considered. Definitely quieter than Newport.

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https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/50-of-canadians-face-insolvency-amid-debt-hopelessness-survey-1.1376463

 

Quote

50% of Canadians face insolvency amid 'debt hopelessness': Survey

Half of Canadians are on the verge of insolvency, according to a survey on household debt levels in this country.

The latest MNP Consumer Debt Index published Monday shows 50 per cent of respondents said they're within $200 of not being able to cover their monthly bills, and nearly an equal proportion of participants in the survey (49 per cent) said they aren't confident in their ability to cover expenses without going deeper into debt.

“Our findings may point to a shift among some Canadians from debt apathy to debt hopelessness. Feelings of hopelessness can make people feel like giving up on ever paying down their debt or, worse, ignoring the debt as it piles up higher,” said MNP President Grant Bazian in a release.

The survey underscores the extent to which household balance sheets have become stretched in Canada, but it's by no means the only indicator as the Bank of Canada prepares to release its next interest rate decision on Wednesday.

One week ago, the central bank's survey of consumer expectations revealed a widening gap in spending growth expectations versus anticipated income growth, suggesting consumers will either have to borrow more or cut their spending plans.

 

And the most recent data from Statistics Canada similarly exposed mounting vulnerabilities, with the seasonally-adjusted credit market debt to disposable income ratio rising to 171.84 in the third quarter. This means Canadians, on average, owed almost $1.72 for every dollar of disposable income.

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Tortorella's Rant said:

And 50% of Canadians not saving for retirement either. If not more. Going to be stuck working until they're dead. #slavery

I plan on working until I am 70. Partly because of finances, partly because I believe I will be healthy enough to.

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1 minute ago, Shift-4 said:

I plan on working until I am 70. Partly because of finances, partly because I believe I will be healthy enough to.

That's fair. I mean, if you want to so be it. But so many people having to do it out of necessity is &^@#ed. 

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9 minutes ago, Shift-4 said:

Holy crap!  I checked to see what the ratio is down here, knowing that many here also live beyond their means, and Canada is twice as bad in the debt to disposable income ratio! (The US article was a year old, fwiw). 

 

Yikes!

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11 minutes ago, Shift-4 said:

Was reading this article today it was interspersed by another I read showing that the 1st round of insolvencies from the first interest rate hike in 2017 is most complete but the ensuing insolvencies are around the corner as the rate was hiked from effectively nothing to where it sits now after almost or near a decade of minimal movement.

 

With the next rate hike potentially coming up and another round of insolvencies possibly coming from the 3rd and 4th hikes in 2018 we could start seeing some serious issues from the world of personal debt.  There's a LOT of people that bought secondary investment or income properties that are or were needing to charge exorbitant rental rates to keep but are now seeing those prices more than most renters will consider.  One missed payment is enough to send those people in to insolvency as the catch up is more than they can stomach.

 

The coming 18 months will be very interesting

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5 minutes ago, Tortorella's Rant said:

That's fair. I mean, if you want to so be it. But so many people having to do it out of necessity is &^@#ed. 

Necessity, or ignorance? Obviously a mix of both, but I wonder how many of those not saving and living paycheck to paycheck enjoy their regular avocado toast and latte, iPhone 11, and lease a nice car.

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2 minutes ago, Kragar said:

Holy crap!  I checked to see what the ratio is down here, knowing that many here also live beyond their means, and Canada is twice as bad in the debt to disposable income ratio! (The US article was a year old, fwiw). 

 

Yikes!

The US added $2 TRILLION in consumer/personal debt in 6 months last year and almost $3 trillion in government debt in the last 18 months.  This is during what is considered to be the fastest growing economic period in decades.

 

It's actually frightening honestly to know people are living so far beyond their means.  We're not as closely tied to the US in lockstep as we were a decade ago but what affects them will affect us in ways we cannot predict.

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Just now, Kragar said:

Necessity, or ignorance? Obviously a mix of both, but I wonder how many of those not saving and living paycheck to paycheck enjoy their regular avocado toast and latte, iPhone 11, and lease a nice car.

I read something that said "if you think my spending habits and lack of money is due to buying $5 coffees, you grossly misjudged just how little money I actually make" and it made me think that is the truth.  I don't see as many working class 20-40 year olds buying non essentials as I used to 

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https://vancouversun.com/transportation/autos/the-next-american-car-recession-has-already-started/wcm/a8053589-9070-424b-82bb-0e7719b284fa

 

"

These should be boom times for Detroit. Unemployment is at a half-century low, gasoline is cheap and auto sales in the U.S. were near record levels last year. Yet American automakers are closing factories, cutting  shifts and laying off thousands of workers. The industry is behaving like a recession has arrived.

In one segment of the market, it has.

Detroit is in the grips of a car recession marked by the collapse of demand for traditional sedans, which accounted for half the market just six years ago. Buyers have made a mass exodus out of classic family cars and into sport utility vehicles. Familiar sedan models such as the Honda Accord and the Ford Fusion made up a record low 30 per cent of U.S. sales in 2018, and things will only get worse.

It feels like we're going back to that dark period a decade ago

 

Sales of the passenger-car body style that’s dominated the industry since the Model T will sink to 21.5 per cent of the U.S. market by 2025, according to researchers at LMC Automotive, relegating sedans to fringe products. That leaves automakers with excess factory capacity that can turn out about 3 million more vehicles than buyers want. And overcapacity is precisely what spurred losses the last time a recession wracked the industry.

“You could classify this as a car recession,” said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive.

It’s a situation that promises to put a damper on the North American International Auto Show in Detroit this week, the last to be held in the chill of January. In a bid to reestablish relevance, the annual car conclave is moving to June next year and will be reimagined as a chance for show-goers to drive new models in warm weather. The car dealers who organize the show hope the new format will entice notable dropouts — a group that now includes Mercedes, BMW and Audi — to return to an event that once commanded the full attention of the automotive world.

An optimist might seek solace in the better-than-expected profit prediction issued Friday by General Motors Co. But a deeper look at the numbers reveals that the biggest contribution to the company’s rosy forecast were cost-cutting plans — including closing five North American plants — which it said will help boost profit this year by as much as US$2.5 billion.

America’s auto industry has 10 plants and 20,000 workers more than it needs

 

The overcapacity plaguing U.S. automakers is the equivalent of 10 excess plants, which would account for at least 20,000 jobs directly, and thousands more as it ripples through the suppliers and support services to the massive industry. “GM has taken some actions, but they still have some well-underutilized plants,” Schuster said. “So we may not be done with this yet.”

One strategy for dealing with the collapsing car market in the past has been to stuff unwanted sedans into rental lots and other commercial fleets. That has only delayed today’s capacity crisis. Those lower-profit fleet sales have inflated the market, keeping U.S. vehicle deliveries above 17 million for the last four years, even as sales to individual retail customers peaked three years ago.

“The car recession and the retail recession have already arrived in the sense that retail sales peaked in 2015 and have gone down ever since,” said Mark Wakefield, head of the automotive practice at consultant AlixPartners. “Cars have just been crushed.”

Many former passenger-car buyers have flocked to crossover SUVs that offer more room and, these days, competitive fuel economy. The Chevy Malibu, a family sedan, gets combined city and highway fuel economy of 26 miles per gallon. The Chevy Equinox, a small crossover SUV, trails by only one mile per gallon.

There are signs drivers are even ditching sedans for big trucks. “Pickup buyers are trading in crossover SUVs and sedans,” said Sandor Piszar, director of marketing at Chevrolet, which is ramping up production of its new Silverado. Total U.S. pickup sales grew 2 percent last year, to 2.4 million vehicles, in a market that was otherwise flat.

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12 minutes ago, Shift-4 said:

I plan on working until I am 70. Partly because of finances, partly because I believe I will be healthy enough to.

Not me.  I was dreaming of quiting work at 55.  Now i am pretty positive i can go at 58 years old.  

 

Total retirement income for us should be approximately 100 K per year...

 

Not sure if that is enough as i still have money on a mortgage.....  

 

Wife is concerning working part time while retired to top up the income...

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3 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

I read something that said "if you think my spending habits and lack of money is due to buying $5 coffees, you grossly misjudged just how little money I actually make" and it made me think that is the truth.  I don't see as many working class 20-40 year olds buying non essentials as I used to 

Read a study lately that is the fact.  Many products will be eliminated as young people look to cut costs.

 

Red meat, cable vision, mayo , fabric softener were a few i can remember.......

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Just now, kingofsurrey said:

Read a study lately that is the fact.  Many products will be eliminated as young people look to cut costs.

 

Red meat, cable vision, mayo , fabric softener were a few i can remember.......

I read the same study I think.  It was in direct response to the belief that millennials waste money frivolously but showed that in fact millennials were cutting costs everywhere which was threatening industries across the board citing not enough money or not worthy expenditures based on income levels.

 

effectively, the fact millennials cannot in fact afford things is causing industries major issues because they just cannot afford to be consumers of the same variety their parents and grand parents are/were

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1 minute ago, Warhippy said:

I read the same study I think.  It was in direct response to the belief that millennials waste money frivolously but showed that in fact millennials were cutting costs everywhere which was threatening industries across the board citing not enough money or not worthy expenditures based on income levels.

 

effectively, the fact millennials cannot in fact afford things is causing industries major issues because they just cannot afford to be consumers of the same variety their parents and grand parents are/were

I wonder if car sales will plumet as it seems young people are giving up on getting licence, expensive insurance, cost of care ownership.....   getting used to using better transit....

 

As cost of living soars... will young people ditch the cars .....

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2 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:

I wonder if car sales will plumet as it seems young people are giving up on getting licence, expensive insurance, cost of care ownership.....   getting used to using better transit....

 

As cost of living soars... will young people ditch the cars .....

Automotive sales/insolvencies actually were major causes of concern via default levels last year 

 

This story is from near the beginning of the year but it ended in record territory

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/auto-loan-delinquency-record-from-ny-fed-recession-worry-overblown-2019-2

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