Cap Hell for Canucks!!! (GREAT NEWS from Daly re: CAP for next year!!)

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, HKSR said:

It'll have to be a major cut.  Well, I think Roussel or Beagle would or could be moved to make it work.

To keep our most important players will cost us using our best prospects as sweetener in deals to dump the contacts if guys who really don’t help us a whole heck of a lot.  

[aGENT]

8 minutes ago, HKSR said:

It'll have to be a major cut.  Well, I think Roussel or Beagle would or could be moved to make it work.

Sutter/Pearson will be off the books (unless we re-sign Pearson). We're very likely to expose Myers to SEA IMO (or another contract that will come off) and the cap will continue to rise. 

 

And Edler will likely not command his current $6m (likely somewhere around $4-$5m). It should in no way, be a problem.

[HKSR]

7 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Sutter/Pearson will be off the books (unless we re-sign Pearson). We're very likely to expose Myers to SEA IMO (or another contract that will come off) and the cap will continue to rise. 

 

And Edler will likely not command his current $6m (likely somewhere around $4-$5m). It should in no way, be a problem.

Here's what I got so far... it's a tight squeeze.  This is with 50% retention on LE, Pearson gone as UFA, and Demko with a 'show-me' contract raise.

Inserted Podkolzin and Hoglander into the lineup on ELC.  Two other ELCs on defence (Rafferty and Juolevi?).

Edler @ $3M AAV would work if Beagle or Roussel are gone.  $4M+ AAV would be very difficult to squeeze in.

Petey and QH raises as well.

 

 

 

[aGENT]

2 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Here's what I got so far... it's a tight squeeze.  This is with 50% retention on LE, Pearson gone as UFA, and Demko with a 'show-me' contract raise.

Inserted Podkolzin and Hoglander into the lineup on ELC.  Two other ELCs on defence (Rafferty and Juolevi?).

Edler @ $3M AAV would work if Beagle or Roussel are gone.  $4M+ AAV would be very difficult to squeeze in.

Petey and QH raises as well.

 

 

 

I'll wait and see what Benning's numbers are  

 

Plus I'm sure the cap goes up over the next couple years...and again, losing a guy (my guess is Myers and his $6m) in the SEA ED. We're also likely to make some trades/signings in between now and October 21.

 

<<<<Not worried. At all.

[aGENT]

FYI, for anyone wondering if Eriksson might actually retire or not, Jimmy and his beautiful brain may have sorted out something that absolutely made my day!

 

15 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

So I have a question for our resident capologists, regarding Loui's buyout situation.

 

As I understand it, a player over 26 gets 2/3 of his remaining salary, but that does that include future signing bonuses, or just straight salary? 

 

Because if it is just salary, and not bonus money too in the buyout he receives, buying out Loui next June 15th would net him 2.67 million. 

 

If he agrees to retire after his bonus is paid, he gets 3 million.

 

Seems to me he's got a good incentive to just take the bonus and retire, vs. going to Utica for 2 years or trying to pick up another job somewhere as a 35 year old UFA which won't be easy. 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

Sweet Gordie...you might be right Jimmy you brilliant bastard you! 

 

From CF:

 

Cost Calculations

BUYOUT DATE	BASE SALARY REMAINING	S.BONUS REMAINING	YEARS REMAINING	BUYOUT LENGTH	AGE	BUYOUT RATIO	TOTAL COST	TOTAL SAVINGS	ANNUAL COST
Jun 15, 2020	$4,000,000	$4,000,000	2	4	34	2/3	$2,666,667	$1,333,333	$666,667

Cap Hit Calculations

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( VAN)
2020-21	$1,000,000	$6,000,000	$3,000,000	$666,667	$3,666,667	$333,333	$5,666,667
2021-22	$3,000,000	$6,000,000	$1,000,000	$666,667	$1,666,667	$2,333,333	$3,666,667
2022-23	$0	$0	$0	$666,667	$666,667	-$666,667	$666,667
2023-24	$0	$0	$0	$666,667	$666,667	-$666,667	$666,667
TOTAL	$4,000,000	$12,000,000	$4,000,000	$2,666,667	$6,666,667	$1,333,333	$10,666,668

 

 

Looks like the buyout cost (AKA his actual earnings) to the Canucks would be $2.66m. I could freaking kiss you!

 

[aGENT]

25 minutes ago, spook007 said:

Mll if they send Eriksson to Utica the remaining 2 years of his contract , what would they save? If anything?

They save just over $1m/year by sending to Utica. But see post above for some potentially damn good news.

Edited February 25, 2020 by aGENT

[spook007]

26 minutes ago, aGENT said:

They save just over $1m/year by sending to Utica. But see post above for some potentially damn good news.

Cheers aGENT....

 

Was reading the posts, and just wondering, how much better off they could be by buying Eriksson out compared to sending him to Utica...

This is turning in to a great thread...

[GritGrinder]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

Here's what I got so far... it's a tight squeeze.  This is with 50% retention on LE, Pearson gone as UFA, and Demko with a 'show-me' contract raise.

Inserted Podkolzin and Hoglander into the lineup on ELC.  Two other ELCs on defence (Rafferty and Juolevi?).

Edler @ $3M AAV would work if Beagle or Roussel are gone.  $4M+ AAV would be very difficult to squeeze in.

Petey and QH raises as well.

 

 

 

Who do you have them losing to Seattle in the Expansion Draft in this scenario?

[GritGrinder]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

I'll wait and see what Benning's numbers are  

 

Plus I'm sure the cap goes up over the next couple years...and again, losing a guy (my guess is Myers and his $6m) in the SEA ED. We're also likely to make some trades/signings in between now and October 21.

 

<<<<Not worried. At all.

Myers has a NMC which means he has to be protected in the Expansion Draft if I'm not mistaken.

[Provost]

42 minutes ago, aGENT said:

FYI, for anyone wondering if Eriksson might actually retire or not, Jimmy and his beautiful brain may have sorted out something that absolutely made my day!

 

 

 

I am not following how this helps us a lot?  It saves us cash but not cap hit.

If he gets bought out this year, he costs us more against the cap than it would by burying him in the minors for next season... then we spread out his cap hit the following season but don't net out to much savings.
If he gets bought out after next season, he costs us $4 million against the cap, and then another million after his contract expires.... so not really any savings.

You can't buy him out after he gets his signing bonus as the window would be closed by then.

 

[aGENT]

7 minutes ago, GritGrinder said:

Myers has a NMC which means he has to be protected in the Expansion Draft if I'm not mistaken.

His contract switches to a MNTC next year. No NMC. No protection.

 

6 minutes ago, Provost said:

I am not following how this helps us a lot?  It saves us cash but not cap hit.

If he gets bought out this year, he costs us more against the cap than it would by burying him in the minors for next season... then we spread out his cap hit the following season but don't net out to much savings.
If he gets bought out after next season, he costs us $4 million against the cap, and then another million after his contract expires.... so not really any savings.

You can't buy him out after he gets his signing bonus as the window would be closed by then.

 

If we buy him out this June, before his bonus, it appears he only gets $2.667m total from us (over four years @ $667/year). If he agrees to retire/mutually terminate after his bonus in the summer, he gets $3m upfront.

 

Which would you prefer if you're him?

Edited February 25, 2020 by aGENT

[HKSR]

11 minutes ago, GritGrinder said:

Who do you have them losing to Seattle in the Expansion Draft in this scenario?

No idea.  I'm guessing either Demko or Markstrom will be gone.

[Provost]

3 minutes ago, aGENT said:

His contract switches to a MNTC next year. No NMC. No protection.

 

If we buy him out this June, before his bonus, it appears he only gets $2.667m total from us (over four years @ $667/year). If he agrees to retire/mutually terminate after his bonus in the summer, he gets $3m upfront.

 

Which would you prefer if you're him?

I don't think that is right.  He gets his signing bonuses on top of that still if he is bought out, so he would get $6.667 if bought out.  The 2/3rds are just of his actual salary, that is why signing bonuses make a contract buyout proof.
If he retires after his bonus in the summer he loses $5 million and the team could actually legally go back and claw back his signing bonus (which is the only way they would take that portion off their cap hit for the year.

 

Signing Bonus

Signing bonuses are paid to the player regardless of a buyout. Therefore, as explained in the buyout caphit formula above, signing bonuses are excluded in the equation when determining the total buyout cost, and are included in the AAV value when determining the remaining caphit.

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, Provost said:

I don't think that is right.  He gets his signing bonuses on top of that still if he is bought out, so he would get $6.667 if bought out.  The 2/3rds are just of his actual salary, that is why signing bonuses make a contract buyout proof.
If he retires after his bonus in the summer he loses $5 million and the team could actually legally go back and claw back his signing bonus (which is the only way they would take that portion off their cap hit for the year.

 

Signing Bonus

Signing bonuses are paid to the player regardless of a buyout. Therefore, as explained in the buyout caphit formula above, signing bonuses are excluded in the equation when determining the total buyout cost, and are included in the AAV value when determining the remaining caphit.

Well see, this is what @Jimmy McGill (and by extension myself) were wondering. If what appeared to be a make this all go away nicely was not in fact, a mirage 

 

Shame, thought we had a nice outlet to rid ourselves of his contract!

 

We're SOL Jimmy, back to buyout or 50%retention lol

 

 

[apollo]

Cap hell? Lol relax. 

 

Let management take care of it. Players will continue to take discounts to play on a cup contender in a city like this. 

 

In Jim Benning we trust. 

[JM_]

50 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Well see, this is what @Jimmy McGill (and by extension myself) were wondering. If what appeared to be a make this all go away nicely was not in fact, a mirage 

 

Shame, thought we had a nice outlet to rid ourselves of his contract!

 

We're SOL Jimmy, back to buyout or 50%retention lol

 

 

but thats not really the point, its about leverage. He's not going to have a spot on the team next year, that is certain. 

 

So, if you're Loui your choices are:

 

1) potentially get bought out, earn 2.67 million. 

2) retire and get 3 million. 

3) risk being sent to Utica and not see your kids for 2 years.

 

Even if the bonus money counts towards our cap, its still 3 mil less and then 0 the next year. 

[mll]

2 hours ago, HKSR said:

Here's what I got so far... it's a tight squeeze.  This is with 50% retention on LE, Pearson gone as UFA, and Demko with a 'show-me' contract raise.

Inserted Podkolzin and Hoglander into the lineup on ELC.  Two other ELCs on defence (Rafferty and Juolevi?).

Edler @ $3M AAV would work if Beagle or Roussel are gone.  $4M+ AAV would be very difficult to squeeze in.

Petey and QH raises as well.

 

 

 

Benning seems confident that there are no cap issues.  He probably has some roster adjustments already in mind for this summer.  

 

You are missing the bonus overage in your calculations.  You have Ferland on LTIR and once a team is using LTIR they can't really bank cap space.  They aren't accruing anything towards their end of season cap space to pay their bonuses, so it gets carried over to the following season.

 

CapFriendly has the Canucks' end of season cap space at 30'474.- ever since Ferland went on LTIR.   That amount hasn't changed despite the movements with Utica and even the Toffoli trade.  

 

They are not going to be able to come out of LTIR so the the team will start next season with some 1.7M in bonus overage as Pettersson/Hughes look to hit their schedule A.  It could be more if there are games played bonuses.  It seems less likely that Pettersson will hit his schedule B of 2M but the season is not over.  He has to be top-10 in one of goals, assists, points or points per game.

 

As long as Ferland is on LTIR there will be this overage issue so you need to add the 2020/21 bonuses to your total - would think that Pettersson/Hughes will again hit their schedule A plus Pettersson will continue to progress so maybe he could hit his schedule B.  There might also be bonuses for other ELC players.  

 

Edited February 25, 2020 by mll

[aGENT]

6 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

but thats not really the point, its about leverage. He's not going to have a spot on the team next year, that is certain. 

 

So, if you're Loui your choices are:

 

1) potentially get bought out, earn 2.67 million. 

2) retire and get 3 million. 

3) risk being sent to Utica and not see your kids for 2 years.

 

Even if the bonus money counts towards our cap, its still 3 mil less and then 0 the next year. 

Except he'd still get his bonuses so it's actually:

 

1) $6.67m (albeit $2.67 of that spread over 4 years)

2) retire/mutually terminate - $3m

3) Utica/no kids

4) 50% retention trade to go play on a basement team (if we can find a partner)

Edited February 25, 2020 by aGENT

[mll]

Just now, aGENT said:

Except he'd still get his bonuses so it's actually:

 

1) $6.67m (albeit $2.67 of that spread over 4 years)

2) retire/mutually terminate - $3m

3) Utica/no kids

4) 50% retention trade to go play on a basement team 

5)  That basement team buys him out - Canucks carry half of the buyout cap hit.   

[aGENT]

Just now, mll said:

5)  That basement team buys him out - Canucks carry half of the buyout cap hit.   

That could work potentially too.

 

Though, with retention, Loui's still a half decent bottom 6 player. And if you frame the trade well it becomes basically cash neutral to the other teams owner. AKA, they wouldn't necessarily feel the need to buy him out. But it sure wouldn't hurt our cap if they did.