Cap Hell for Canucks!!! (GREAT NEWS from Daly re: CAP for next year!!)

[Arrow 1983]

1 minute ago, Provost said:

Except according to Capfriendly it actually is carrying over bonus from last year.  There is a clear line item saying so.

 

 

I agree I missed it, my bad

[gameburn]

3 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Scoring is great...but you do also need guys who PK, take (and win) defensive zone draws etc. Things that are ignored, or importance downplayed by, far too many people.

 

 

But if your mid to high level scorers can ALSO do the faceoff and defensive work, then it just means you don't need the likes of Beagle, Sutter, Schaller, Motte, etc. Same with the D, now that we can see what Hughes can do.  You can use Entry Level players/young guys to fill in these roles, not overpaid guys like Sutter and Beagle.

 

Look who closes out games now: Hughes, Tanev, Horvat, Pearson and Eriksson.  (Eriksson is an interesting player because clearly he has decided to play a real role, really put in the work. -- I'm not sure he did this the 2 previous years.)

 

[Arrow 1983]

8 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

ok go to capfriendly archive and show me where they used 12million in LTIR according to CF they used $479 and only Methot, Marcwas placed on LTIR for 28 days.

sorry wrong archive this is 17-18 archive I'm in the wrong one we need the 18-19 archive I will post it after I check the numbers

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, gameburn said:

But if your mid to high level scorers can ALSO do the faceoff and defensive work, then it just means you don't need the likes of Beagle, Sutter, Schaller, Motte, etc. Same with the D, now that we can see what Hughes can do.  You can use Entry Level players/young guys to fill in these roles, not overpaid guys like Sutter and Beagle.

 

Look who closes out games now: Hughes, Tanev, Horvat, Pearson and Eriksson.  (Eriksson is an interesting player because clearly he has decided to play a real role, really put in the work. -- I'm not sure he did this the 2 previous years.)

 

And eventually we will get there. Sutter expires next year, Beagle the year after. We're not quite there yet.

 

And even then, having a savvy vet who can win draws, PK, take pressure off your stars etc is still very much needed. Think of how valuable Malhotra was even with the twins and Kes in their heyday...

 

 

[Arrow 1983]

18-19 archive shows Dallas used 2,135,504 million in LTIR not 12million

 

Hanzel for 70 days on LTIR and Methot 83 days on LTIR.

 

according to this story https://www.defendingbigd.com/2019/11/21/20973261/2019-dallas-stars-salary-cap-performance-bonuses-heiskanen-gurianov-sekera-perry

 

Dallas has 5.6 million in Bonuses this year and last year about the same so there was no way for LTIR to cover all their Bonuses which then ended up in overages.

 

Notice they did not end up with 100% of their bonuses payed out as overages

[gameburn]

35 minutes ago, aGENT said:

And eventually we will get there. Sutter expires next year, Beagle the year after. We're not quite there yet.

 

And even then, having a savvy vet who can win draws, PK, take pressure off your stars etc is still very much needed. Think of how valuable Malhotra was even with the twins and Kes in their heyday...

 

 

Good point.  Beagle is a bit of an issue re: term, but not too worried about Sutter.  I think the lesson here is to be careful about going too heavily into the free agency market.

 

The good news -- and most of us fans appreciate this -- is that Horvat has turned out to be even better than we predicted.  And Hughes is clearly a new kind of D that will probably avoid injury while contributing to puck control and offense (and defense too) every time he is on the ice.  Pettersson and Boeser are solid scorers but still learning.  Pettersson in particular will take a big step forward in the next year or two.  Miller, Pearson and Ferland are mid to late 20s guys who are in a different position -- call them temporary core, I guess. 

 

All of which means we can be pretty selective about who we add.  But also capable of moving players when we can benefit.   

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, gameburn said:

Good point.  Beagle is a bit of an issue re: term, but not too worried about Sutter.  I think the lesson here is to be careful about going too heavily into the free agency market.

 

The good news -- and most of us fans appreciate this -- is that Horvat has turned out to be even better than we predicted.  And Hughes is clearly a new kind of D that will probably avoid injury while contributing to puck control and offense (and defense too) every time he is on the ice.  Pettersson and Boeser are solid scorers but still learning.  Pettersson in particular will take a big step forward in the next year or two.  Miller, Pearson and Ferland are mid to late 20s guys who are in a different position -- call them temporary core, I guess. 

 

All of which means we can be pretty selective about who we add.  But also capable of moving players when we can benefit.   

On top of that, we can also likely attract guys without having to tempt them with extra $$ or term. This is very quickly going to become a place to come to win again  

[appleboy]

Cap troubles are always solved by drafting well. When you can fill supporting cast roles from your farm team you don't need to over commit to that type of a player. 

Sutter ,Beagle , Rousell and any depth defense should all be supplied from within your organization.  Benning did not have that option because there was nothing left for him to work with. 

Now the key for the Canucks is to continue to draft well going forward. To keep our own picks as much as possible. As some of these expensive role players come to the end of their contracts we need to have replacements from within. 

[mll]

1 hour ago, Arrow 1983 said:

18-19 archive shows Dallas used 2,135,504 million in LTIR not 12million

 

Hanzel for 70 days on LTIR and Methot 83 days on LTIR.

 

according to this story https://www.defendingbigd.com/2019/11/21/20973261/2019-dallas-stars-salary-cap-performance-bonuses-heiskanen-gurianov-sekera-perry

 

Dallas has 5.6 million in Bonuses this year and last year about the same so there was no way for LTIR to cover all their Bonuses which then ended up in overages.

 

Notice they did not end up with 100% of their bonuses payed out as overages

 

Bonuses are only paid if players earn them.  They had 2 players who achieved part of their targets - Heiskanen and Hintz. Sean Shapiro confirmed the amounts with Dallas - it was 932'500 for both combined.  

 

This year's 5.6M include Perry's potential bonus - he only signed with them this season.  Last year the only player up all season with performance bonuses was Heiskanen and he didn't hit all his bonuses. 

 

They didn't put Johns (2.35M) on LTIR but kept him on IR although he didn't play all year - he missed 22 months and has just returned this month.  Teams prefer to avoid LTIR whenever they can because it doesn't allow to bank cap space and creates bonus overages.  They had to put Methot and Hanzal on LTIR to make roster movements.

 

In 2018/19 Dorsett did not play all season but the Canucks had ample cap space so they kept him on IR - they didn't put him on LTIR.  In 2017/18 they had him on LTIR because they needed his cap space to make injury recalls and ended up with a bonus overage.

 

In 2018/19 he stayed on IR and not LTIR despite not playing all season.  They were able to bank end of season cap space and cover their bonuses to avoid a carry over - Boeser was still on his ELC and there was also Pettersson.

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by mll

[Noble 6]

The bonus overage thing is a key factor here. I'm not sure if I'm 100% right on this, but here's how I understand it.

 

Between Pettersson and Hughes, the Canucks could have a maximum or 3.7 million in bonuses to play out. For arguments sake and just to use a round number, let's say at the end of the year we are on the hook for 3 million in bonuses. Then let's say the Canucks' end of season cap space is $500,000 after some trades and moves. The Canucks would then have to pay 2.5 million in overages for next year. 

 

I don't think it's that simple (LTIR factors into it), but that's the general idea.

 

@mll would you be able to clarify?

 

EDIT: I see you already beat me to it.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Horvat is a Boss

[Noble 6]

13 minutes ago, mll said:

 

Bonuses are only paid if players earn them.  They had 2 players who achieved part of their targets - Heiskanen and Hintz. Sean Shapiro confirmed the amounts with Dallas - it was 932'500 for both combined.  

 

This year's 5.6M include Perry's potential bonus - he only signed with them this season.  Last year the only player up all season with performance bonuses was Heiskanen and he didn't hit his target B bonuses. 

 

They didn't put Johns (2.35M) on LTIR but kept him on IR although he didn't play all year - he missed 22 months and has just returned this month.  Teams prefer to avoid LTIR whenever they can because it doesn't allow to bank cap space and creates bonus overages.  They had to put Methot and Hanzal on LTIR to make roster movements.

 

In 2018/19 Dorsett did not play all season but the Canucks had ample cap space so they kept him on IR - they didn't put him on LTIR.  In 2017/18 they had him on LTIR because they needed his cap space to make injury recalls and ended up with a bonus overage.

 

In 2018/19 he stayed on IR and not LTIR despite not playing all season.  They were able to bank end of season cap space and cover their bonuses to avoid a carry over - Boeser was still on his ELC and there was also Pettersson.

 

 

Considering that Ferland has been on LTIR most of the year and Pettersson and Hughes will likely hit most of their bonuses, could the Canucks realistically be looking at 3+ million in bonus overages for next year?

[appleboy]

3 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

The bonus overage thing is a key factor here. I'm not sure if I'm 100% right on this, but here's how I understand it.

 

Between Pettersson and Hughes, the Canucks could have a maximum or 3.7 million in bonuses to play out. For arguments sake and just to use a round number, let's say at the end of the year we are on the hook for 3 million in bonuses. Then let's say the Canucks' end of season cap space is $500,000 after some trades and moves. The Canucks would then have to pay 2.5 million in overages for next year. 

 

I don't think it's that simple (LTIR factors into it), but that's the general idea.

 

@mll would you be able to clarify?

I also think that the LTIR factors into it. This why you must have a top level guy managing your cap. From the beginning to end.

[mll]

45 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

Considering that Ferland has been on LTIR most of the year and Pettersson and Hughes will likely hit most of their bonuses, could the Canucks realistically be looking at 3+ million in bonus overages for next year?

1.7M.  Pettersson and Hughes will likely hit their schedule A - it's 850K each.  Pettersson has 2M in schedule B but that's for league wide performance like winning a major award or being top-10 in scoring - seems less likely this season.   

 

End of season cap space for now is 30'474.-  with Ferland still on LTIR.   It will increase once everyone is healthy but there's only 35% of the season left at the end of this month - clearing 1M in cap space at the of January would bank 350K in end of season cap space.  

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by mll

[Provost]

50 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

Considering that Ferland has been on LTIR most of the year and Pettersson and Hughes will likely hit most of their bonuses, could the Canucks realistically be looking at 3+ million in bonus overages for next year?

Yes... either $1.7 or $3.7 if Petterson hits any schedule B bonus targets.  We have a projected $30k in cap space, and you can’t use LTIR space to pay the ELC bonuses.  You can’t bank cap space while in LTIR.

 

So basically ALL of those earned bonuses get pushed into next year, dropping what we can spend.  The further complication is that any bonuses earned next year simply cannot be pushed into 2021-22 because we will be in a really tight cap crunch having to pay Petterson and Hughes on their next contracts.  So, assuming Juolevi is on the team as a top 6, you could be looking at more ELC oerofmabr bonuses than this year... dropping what we can spend by another couple of million at least, or more if Petterson gets a $2 million bonus.

 

Schedule-B bonuses the team and the player can negotiate (maximum total is US$2 million per year)
1. Finishing in the top five for Hart, Norris, Selke and Richard.
2. Finishing in the top three for Calder and Lady Byng.
3. Making the first- or second-team all-star group.
4. Winning the Conn Smythe.
5. Finishing in the top 10 among in goals, assists or points.
6. Finishing in the top 10 in points-per-game (must play 42 games).
7. Finishing in the top 10 in average time-on-ice (must play 42 games).

Edited January 24, 2020 by Provost

[Russ]

Meh thats why theres guys that are hired to do this for a living to figure this stuff out lol

[alt kilgore]

I think its asinine to think of getting rid of Stecher.  For his cap hit and what he would ask for.  I love Tanev too, but he'll be way more expensive, and injuries are bound to catch up to him, they have already to a degree.  I trust Stecher out there more than any D other than Hughes. Especially in regards to his hustle in regards to not only clearing the puck, but finding a team mate to pass to, rather than simply dump it out.  He is so undervalued for what he does nightly.

 

https://canucksarmy.com/2018/05/06/canucks-army-year-in-review-troy-stecher-2/

 

Last years stats. And hes doing even better this season mostly because he is paired with better partners.

 

 

 

One area in particular where Stecher excelled was with his ability to lead possession exits into the offensive zone.

Stecher finished 6th among NHL defensemen in possession entries per hour. Controlled offensive zone entries are crucial given that they’re twice as likely to produce shot attempts compared to uncontrolled entries.

Another area where Stecher dominated was at contributing towards shots on goal.

Primary shot contributions are counted either when said player takes a shot on goal or when he makes a pass that directly leads to a shot. Once again, we find Stecher with some elite company when looking at the data.

 

Fantenburg and Benn are not as good as Stecher. 

And Tanev, while still good, we could get a good trade value, if he remains healthy.

[Chris12345]

6 hours ago, Squamfan said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

= 20 million in cap space on plugs

Exactly. If GMJB thinks we don't have a cap issue that's one thing but he has an asset management issue.

 

 

[Chris12345]

5 hours ago, canuktravella said:

 We will be trading tanevs rights  before july 1st. rafferty and tryamkin and rathbone can replace him with more offense and grit  our dcorp will be much diff next yr 

 

 edler myers

hughes tryamkin 

juolevi rathbone 

benn rafferty 

 

looks like a decent dcorp i really dont see tanev or stecher being on team next yr  trades will happen as for cap space i see one of motte or leivo being traded and baertchi or eriksson  mutually terminating contract. 

2 rookies in the top 6. Yikes.

[Rindiculous]

Everyone is giving our guys bloated contracts.  Marky sure 5-6 mill.  However Tanev will never be more than 4.5 mill there’s no comparable in the league for him that makes more than that.  The younger guys who are not top end players like Gaudette are never given more than 1.5 mill.  Virtanen via comparables is probably about 2.5 mill.  Then Leivo is also 1.5 mill and Motte is 1 mill.  Those are the realistic salaries and they easily fit under the cap.

[Provost]

8 hours ago, HKSR said:

Honestly, no matter what the media tries to portray, there really isn't major cap hell for the Canucks.  GMJB reiterated that as well. 

Here's what I see for the coming year.  Running the numbers, we'd have $1M+ in cap space left.  If the cap doesn't go up, will likely mean goodbye to Stecher.

 

Honestly, it's the year after (2021-22) that looks more dicey.  With EP40 and QH both getting huge raises, something will have to give. 

 

- Schaller, Leivo, Graovac won't be re-signed.

- Benn, and Baertschi moved.

- Upper Limit of Cap going up by $1M.

- Markstrom @ 5.5M --- some people are saying $6M+... I just don't see it.  That makes him the 8th or 9th highest paid goaltender in the whole league.

- Tanev @ 5M

- Virtanen @ 3.5M

- Gaudette @ 2.5M ("show me" contract)

- Motte @ 1.5M

- Stecher @ 2.5M

- Rookie Defenceman (Rafferty) @ ELC

 

EDIT:  People are also worried about the bonuses for EP40 and QH.  According to the CBA, performance bonuses count against the salary cap; however, a team can exceed the salary cap due to performance bonuses by the maximum performance bonus cushion amount of 7.5 percent of the upper limit. With the $81.5M cap, 7.5% amounts to $6.1125M.  However, the overage would reduce the following year's upper cap limit.  As per the CBA:

 

To the extent a Club's Averaged Club Salary exceeds its Upper Limit as a result of: (i) Exhibit 5 Individual "A" Performance Bonuses and "B" Performance Bonuses paid by the Club that may be earned by Players in the Entry Level System and (ii) Performance Bonuses that may be earned by Players pursuant to Section 50.2(b)(i)(C) above, then the Club's Upper Limit for the next League Year shall be reduced by an amount equal to such excess.

 

 

 

So adding back in the Benn and Baertschi contracts we have, and don’t just disappear without moves being made (and taking away an ELC because Benn is still there)... and adding in the pushed ELC bonuses from THiS year... you are at around $86.5 million.

The December BOG meeting made it sound like the cap will be between $82.5-$83.5, so you are still $3-4 million over the cap.

 

Then add in the fact we definitely can’t afford to push next year’s bonuses into 2021-22 (when we are hit with Petterson and Hughes next contracts) we have to keep a buffer for them under next year’s cap.  Say that is another at least $2 million minimum and quite probably

much more if Juolevi is in our top 6

or Petterson has a good year.

So now we are $5-7 million over what we can spend to the cap next year.

 

That is a full Eriksson, and maybe a tiny bit of buffer for short term injury call ups.

 

The math works no other way than we have to get rid of Eriksson or get rid of both Baertschi and Sutter.  Otherwise we are looking at icing progressively worse rosters for the next two seasons.