Cap Hell for Canucks!!! (GREAT NEWS from Daly re: CAP for next year!!)

[theo5789]

1 hour ago, HKSR said:

No, I didn't take the bonuses into account, but I also think there's wiggle room on Marky, Motte, Gaudette, and Stecher.  We may end up just saying goodbye to Stecher if we're too tight against the cap, but the majority of the roster will remain intact.

 

Marky @ 5M

Motte @ 1.25M

Gaudette @ 2.25M

Stecher @ 2M

 

All of a sudden, we saved an extra $1.5M right there.

The bonuses are over 1.5 million. I don't think Marky takes less than 6 IMO (5.5 if he wants to go team friendly, but then we need to add possibly a NMC/protect him from expansion). Motte at 1.5 is where I expect him to be. I could see Gaudette going as low as 2 on a 2 year bridge. Stecher would be nice at 2 million, but not sure if he takes that although it's a possibility if he wants to stay and there's no higher bidders on the market (can't see us qualifying him). I'd like to see Tryamkin return and he might be around 2-2.5 million range.

 

Can't see us fitting in Tanev unless we move some contracts out (which is where our biggest "savings" will be from). I think Baertschi will be bought out (makes no sense to really trade him with retention unless the retention is a million or less). Rafferty could replace Stecher potentially as a cheaper alternative. If Fantenberg stays, he will get a moderate raise. I'll be curious to see if we could move out Sutter. There surely is a plan in place as Benning doesn't seem worried at all.

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

The bonuses are over 1.5 million. I don't think Marky takes less than 6 IMO (5.5 if he wants to go team friendly, but then we need to add possibly a NMC/protect him from expansion). Motte at 1.5 is where I expect him to be. I could see Gaudette going as low as 2 on a 2 year bridge. Stecher would be nice at 2 million, but not sure if he takes that although it's a possibility if he wants to stay and there's no higher bidders on the market (can't see us qualifying him). I'd like to see Tryamkin return and he might be around 2-2.5 million range.

 

Can't see us fitting in Tanev unless we move some contracts out (which is where our biggest "savings" will be from). I think Baertschi will be bought out (makes no sense to really trade him with retention unless the retention is a million or less). Rafferty could replace Stecher potentially as a cheaper alternative. If Fantenberg stays, he will get a moderate raise. I'll be curious to see if we could move out Sutter. There surely is a plan in place as Benning doesn't seem worried at all.

Yeah I think the bonuses will be $1.7M (max Schedule A for both Petey and Huggy, I don't think Gaudette will hit any of his Schedule A).  Petey won't hit the Schedule B bonuses this year unless he goes on a complete tear the rest of the season.

 

The odd man out will likely be Stecher.  Bringing back Tryamkin, but losing Stecher is a wash on cap hit though... so I dunno if Tryamkin is in the plans.

[Gawdzukes]

7 minutes ago, HKSR said:

How does he or an arbitrator justify $3.5M+ compared to these comparables??  Stecher is at 9pts in 49gms @ 14:44 TOI.

 

Sorted for RHD as they generally hold a premium.

 

44. Colin Miller	BUF	26	D	Right	33	1	6	7	0.21	-4	49	0.02	17:02	-	-	-	-	-		UFA	$3,875,000	$3,875,000
45. Travis Hamonic	CGY	28	D	Right	44	3	7	10	0.23	2	75	0.04	21:18	-	-	-	-	-		UFA	$3,857,143	$4,875,000
46. Connor Murphy	CHI	26	D	Right	39	4	11	15	0.38	4	74	0.05	21:13	-	-	-	-	-		UFA	$3,850,000	$4,400,000
47. Justin Braun	PHI	32	D	Right	44	3	8	11	0.25	-9	54	0.06	17:31	-	-	-	-	-		UFA	$3,800,000	$3,800,000
48. Brandon Montour	BUF	25	D	Right	35	3	9	12	0.34	5	62	0.05	18:19	-	-	-	-	-		RFA	$3,387,500	$3,525,000
49. Radko Gudas	WSH	29	D	Right	49	2	12	14	0.29	22	74	0.03	17:07	-	-	-	-	-		UFA	$3,350,000	$2,500,000
50. Neal Pionk	WPG	23	D	Right	51	5	27	32	0.63	2	107	0.05	23:18	-	-	-	-	-		RFA	$3,000,000	$2,850,000

Ah, you may be right. Though, if he has even has a decent hot streak he could end up with 20 points. Pretty decent for a D these days. Of course I'm thinking of the Hutton situation. I'm not great on Rfa rules but I thought he needs to be qualified at his previous offer + 10%. He makes $2.325 now so a even a moderate raise would be around 3-3.5 mil. 

 

Even if he does make $2.5 I just wonder if Stetcher and his agent would be shopping for a bigger deal, which might just take him out of JB's thought process. I don't think he'll wait that long to fix the D. We also seem to have some options coming up on D in Rafferty, Tryamkin, Juolevi, Benn, Fantenberg and Tanev, plus UFA. Having said all that I don't really know. 

[HKSR]

5 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Ah, you may be right. Though, if he has even has a decent hot streak he could end up with 20 points. Pretty decent for a D these days. Of course I'm thinking of the Hutton situation. I'm not great on Rfa rules but I thought he needs to be qualified at his previous offer + 10%. He makes $2.325 now so a even a moderate raise would be around 3-3.5 mil. 

 

Even if he does make $2.5 I just wonder if Stetcher and his agent would be shopping for a bigger deal, which might just take him out of JB's thought process. I don't think he'll wait that long to fix the D. We also seem to have some options coming up on D in Rafferty, Tryamkin, Juolevi, Benn, Fantenberg and Tanev, plus UFA. Having said all that I don't really know. 

I think it's Hutton all over again... which means we'll likely walk away.  That's too bad, cuz I love what he brings to the table as our 5th defenceman.

[Gawdzukes]

2 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I think it's Hutton all over again... which means we'll likely walk away.  That's too bad, cuz I love what he brings to the table as our 5th defenceman.

Yeah Cheers HK. Don't get me wrong I love Stetcher and the way he plays but it just might work out that way.

[aGENT]

9 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I think it's Hutton all over again... which means we'll likely walk away.  That's too bad, cuz I love what he brings to the table as our 5th defenceman.

Basically this. Love the kid, but we can't be paying our 3rd pair D $2.5m+ when we have bigger fish to fry on the roster AND we have a pool of players ready to graduate from Utica on cheap contracts to play those minutes.

[theo5789]

16 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Yeah I think the bonuses will be $1.7M (max Schedule A for both Petey and Huggy, I don't think Gaudette will hit any of his Schedule A).  Petey won't hit the Schedule B bonuses this year unless he goes on a complete tear the rest of the season.

 

The odd man out will likely be Stecher.  Bringing back Tryamkin, but losing Stecher is a wash on cap hit though... so I dunno if Tryamkin is in the plans.

I wasn't aware of Schedule A and B bonuses. Only looked at cap friendly and potential bonuses. 

 

IMO, Tryamkin will be vying for Tanev's spot in which case it's not a wash as there is savings there. And Stecher either takes less or we go with Rafferty who'd cheaper, so in the end, we lower the cost on RD. If we can make some trades to open up cap and retain Tanev and bump down Tryamkin, then the cap is a wash, but it's an alternative to making things work and upgrading the team.

[Bure_Pavel]

27 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Younger, bigger, (historically) brings more offense and FAR less injury prone than Tanev.

He is a Top 4 RD, he will get paid if he goes to market unless he wants more than 4 years term 

[aGENT]

28 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

The bonuses are over 1.5 million. I don't think Marky takes less than 6 IMO (5.5 if he wants to go team friendly, but then we need to add possibly a NMC/protect him from expansion). Motte at 1.5 is where I expect him to be. I could see Gaudette going as low as 2 on a 2 year bridge. Stecher would be nice at 2 million, but not sure if he takes that although it's a possibility if he wants to stay and there's no higher bidders on the market (can't see us qualifying him). I'd like to see Tryamkin return and he might be around 2-2.5 million range.

 

Can't see us fitting in Tanev unless we move some contracts out (which is where our biggest "savings" will be from). I think Baertschi will be bought out (makes no sense to really trade him with retention unless the retention is a million or less). Rafferty could replace Stecher potentially as a cheaper alternative. If Fantenberg stays, he will get a moderate raise. I'll be curious to see if we could move out Sutter. There surely is a plan in place as Benning doesn't seem worried at all.

Cheers Theo, hadn't even thought about buyout for some reason. That could make more sense. Only caveat being that if we retain vs buyout him and Sutter, retaining would save us almost $1.2m the next year (21-22) for Sutter and $800k for Baer. That's $2m that could go towards Hughes/Petey's raises...

Edited January 23, 2020 by aGENT

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, theo5789 said:

I wasn't aware of Schedule A and B bonuses. Only looked at cap friendly and potential bonuses. 

 

IMO, Tryamkin will be vying for Tanev's spot in which case it's not a wash as there is savings there. And Stecher either takes less or we go with Rafferty who'd cheaper, so in the end, we lower the cost on RD. If we can make some trades to open up cap and retain Tanev and bump down Tryamkin, then the cap is a wash, but it's an alternative to making things work and upgrading the team.

Yeah, schedule A bonuses max @ $850k, Schedule B max @ $2M but are WAY harder to hit (ie. like winning a trophy at the NHL awards).

 

Here's Schedule B in a nut shell:

 

Individual “B” Bonuses, on the other hand, have to do with league-wide trophies and statistical categories. They are much harder to achieve, but they are worth a lot more money. They can be paid by both the club and the league: a flat rate is paid by the league for finishing near the top of balloting for NHL awards (including the Hart, Selke, Lady Byng, Calder, and 1st/2nd Team All-Stars), winning the Richard or Conn Smythe, or finishing in the top ten for goals, assists, points, and/or points per game. The team and player then has the option of negotiating bonus amounts in addition to the league-paid ones. The league-paid portion does not count against the salary cap. The aggregate sum of the club contributions to these cannot exceed the $2 million limit.

[aGENT]

5 minutes ago, Bure_Pavel said:

He is a Top 4 RD, he will get paid if he goes to market unless he wants more than 4 years term 

And he will, at say $4.25 +/-. If he wants another $500k-$750k +/- to leave the city he's called home for a decade and a team on the rise...

Edited January 23, 2020 by aGENT

[theo5789]

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

Cheers Theo, hadn't even thought about buyout for some reason. That could make more sense. Only caveat being that if we retain vs buyout him and Sutter, retaining would save us almost $1.2m the next year for Sutter and $800k for Baer. That's $2m that could go towards Hughes/Petey's raises...

I think at that point, we will have a ton off the books (we will lose someone to expansion too). I also don't think Petey and Quinn are going to get deals as big as some are projecting. I think Sutter has more value in the league if he can stay healthy and be a tradable asset. Or he remains injury prone and we get his cap relief and wait out his contract.

 

I don't think anyone is taking Sven which is why he's a buyout candidate for me and 800k in the following year is minimal IMO.

[EP Phone Home]

It’s finally a blessing to have cheap and young depth that is being sprinkled into the lineup. Rather than having to go out and overpay for stopgaps. Unfortunately for players like Stetcher and Leivo it’s the end of the line for these depth pieces because others below can produce the same and come in for cheap. Where as these two will be looking for raises. It sucks but this was the plan and this is the way.

 

I agree with most of what the OP has down except I think you can get Gaudette for 1.1-1.8 a year if it’s a show me contract and Jake is closer to 2.5 then 3.5. But everything else looks accurate. Hopefully most fans don’t drink the “cap hell” koolaid that media fear mongering folk such as Rick Dhaliwal love to regurgitate into the fan base. 

[theo5789]

5 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Yeah, schedule A bonuses max @ $850k, Schedule B max @ $2M but are WAY harder to hit (ie. like winning a trophy at the NHL awards).

 

Here's Schedule B in a nut shell:

 

Individual “B” Bonuses, on the other hand, have to do with league-wide trophies and statistical categories. They are much harder to achieve, but they are worth a lot more money. They can be paid by both the club and the league: a flat rate is paid by the league for finishing near the top of balloting for NHL awards (including the Hart, Selke, Lady Byng, Calder, and 1st/2nd Team All-Stars), winning the Richard or Conn Smythe, or finishing in the top ten for goals, assists, points, and/or points per game. The team and player then has the option of negotiating bonus amounts in addition to the league-paid ones. The league-paid portion does not count against the salary cap. The aggregate sum of the club contributions to these cannot exceed the $2 million limit.

Good to see that the league could pay for a portion of it too and not count against the cap. Maybe that's how the league can alleviate their BS with the Luongo recapture. Gaudette might not hit all his schedule A, but he's probably due for some. Although if we free up some cap this year, it could take away some of the carryover too.

[24K PureCool]

Why killing your brain cells worrying about this. You can't do anything about it. 

 

Let JB and management loss brain cells over it.

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, theo5789 said:

I think at that point, we will have a ton off the books (we will lose someone to expansion too). I also don't think Petey and Quinn are going to get deals as big as some are projecting. I think Sutter has more value in the league if he can stay healthy and be a tradable asset. Or he remains injury prone and we get his cap relief and wait out his contract.

 

I don't think anyone is taking Sven which is why he's a buyout candidate for me and 800k in the following year is minimal IMO.

For sure Sutter still has value as a player. His health is the biggest issue around him and either keeping him on the team or trading him. Nobody's going to trade for a 1/2 year, broken Sutter regardless of how much he contributes when he is healthy and playing. We're also quickly running out of roster space...

 

Yeah, I'd imagine Hughes will get something like Provorov's deal ($7m +/-).

 

Pettersson...we'll see but $8+ certainly isn't out of the question.

 

$800K is indeed minimal...still I'd prefer to retain and have it over and done with next year. No guarantee anyone nabs him for $1.65m either of course but that does become a far easier to risk for another team and is only a $500k  hit if he's waived.

[Bure_Pavel]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

And he will, at say $4.25 +/-. If he wants another $500k-$750k +/- to leave the city he's called home for a decade and a team on the rise...

I'm thinking between $5.25 +/- $250k on a three year deal. 5 million x 3 years is the most realistic deal for the Canucks I think, especially if he satys healthy for the rest of the season. 

[HKSR]

3 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

Good to see that the league could pay for a portion of it too and not count against the cap. Maybe that's how the league can alleviate their BS with the Luongo recapture. Gaudette might not hit all his schedule A, but he's probably due for some. Although if we free up some cap this year, it could take away some of the carryover too.

Gaudette might hit the goal mark for Schedule A, but definitely won't hit any of the others.  Will be less than $212,500 though anyways.

 

 

[Bure_Pavel]

14 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Cheers Theo, hadn't even thought about buyout for some reason. That could make more sense. Only caveat being that if we retain vs buyout him and Sutter, retaining would save us almost $1.2m the next year (21-22) for Sutter and $800k for Baer. That's $2m that could go towards Hughes/Petey's raises...

Lots of salary coming off the books in that year, enough to get Petey and Hughes signed no problem, next year is the big problem year in my eyes. 7.7 million dollars in dead cap coming off the books including Sutter, when they need to be signed.

[theo5789]

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

For sure Sutter still has value as a player. His health is the biggest issue around him and either keeping him on the team or trading him. Nobody's going to trade for a 1/2 year, broken Sutter regardless of how much he contributes when he is healthy and playing. We're also quickly running out of roster space...

 

Yeah, I'd imagine Hughes will get something like Provorov's deal ($7m +/-).

 

Pettersson...we'll see but $8+ certainly isn't out of the question.

 

$800K is indeed minimal...still I'd prefer to retain and have it over and done with next year. No guarantee anyone nabs him for $1.65m either of course but that does become a far easier to risk for another team and is only a $500k  hit if he's waived.

Hopefully Sutter can finish off the year (and hopefully a bit of a run in the playoffs) healthy and see what happens in the off season. I think a 1.2 million hit (anything over a million) the following year is a bit steep to take for someone that could still provide value if healthy.

 

I'll have to see Hughes' sophomore year to gauge how much he will get, but if it's in the 7 million range, it'll be a long term deal and I'll be fine with that. Yeah I was think EP will be around 8.5 long term. I see projections of 10 million for EP and 9 for Quinn and the panic over that. I think we can manage 16 or so million for both EP and Quinn.

 

If we can make a deal to rid Baertschi's contract, then I'm all for it. I just don't see a deal happening and I don't want to give up any asset to move him when we could buy him out and have a similar hit to retaining him at 50% anyway, so really the cost is that 800k the following year which I doubt will be make or break for us.