Provost Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, Rindiculous said: Taking a quick look at that site I'm gonna take that with a grain of salt seeing at apparently Edmonton has a higher chance of winning the division with a lower point percentage. Also on this site: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html Canucks have a 94.5 % chance of making the playoffs and over 50% chance of winning the division. I will lean on a hockey specific site as having a more sophisticated model than a generic sports site. There seems to be no way that our chances could be that high at all with so many games left to play and such a small gap between us and a non-playoff spot. The Moneypuck site does a lot of stuff in the background like comparing how competitively tough schedules are for the teams going forward. It is easy to have a slightly higher chance of winning the division when having a slightly lower winning %. Even something as simple as looking at home and away records, it can mean a couple more or less expected wins if you have more or less road games remaining. here is a little text on their model. http://moneypuck.com/about.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 (edited) 9 hours ago, Provost said: I don’t know how refined the calculations are behind this. Does it just count what all the teams are on pace for? Does it consider the respective records of opponents and the likely winners game by game? Does it consider road vs home records and calculate that into remaining schedules? Does it consider that the bulk of in division games are left to be played to there are guaranteed points there that “someone has to get” as well as those effectively being 4 point games. I like it in terms of probability. We currently have a 75.9% chance of making the playoffs and. 24.4% chance of winning the division. http://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm I take those odds any day for this point in the season, while at the same time have been a Canucks fan long enough to always have worry about things falling apart until we have it mathematically locked up. 9 hours ago, Rindiculous said: Taking a quick look at that site I'm gonna take that with a grain of salt seeing at apparently Edmonton has a higher chance of winning the division with a lower point percentage. Also on this site: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html Canucks have a 94.5 % chance of making the playoffs and over 50% chance of winning the division. The difference in those two numbers are based on how they factor in in OT wins and shoot out loses, I would say that they are both statistically correct and the only argument is an argument of semantics. It really is just a rounding calculation do you give the Canucks a extra shootout lose point or not, there is only 82 games so is it 1 extra win or 1 extra shoot out lose. IMO, I think the Canucks have better odds to win the Pacific then they are showing, stats are great predicters but they don't factor in Chemistry and right now this team has got something right going for it. Edited January 30, 2020 by Arrow 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Last time I checked you can't get a .5 or .8 of a point it is either 94 or 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 (edited) Projected record to clinch playoff spot: 13-17-1 division: 17-14-0 conference: 25-5-1 based on current projected totals. Edited January 30, 2020 by Shaelon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, Shaelon said: Projected record to clinch playoff spot: 13-18-0 division: 17-14-0 conference: 25-5-1 based on current projected totals. there is no way the Canucks can clinch a playoff spot playing 5 games under 500. It's not realistic, maybe 1 game but not 5 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Arrow 1983 said: there is no way the Canucks can clinch a playoff spot playing 5 games under 500. It's not realistic, maybe 1 game but not 5 games. Again its based on projected totals only, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Shaelon said: Again its based on projected totals only, whos projections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said: whos projections Take all 15 west teams point pace, nsh pace is 9th at 88 pts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Shaelon said: Again its based on projected totals only, http://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm moneypuck doesn't say so The 8th western team is Pho at 89.7 pts rounded up that is 90pts to make the playoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Shaelon said: Take all 15 west teams point pace, nsh pace is 9th at 88 pts you have to go by the 8th place team not the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said: you have to go by the 8th place team not the 9th. Incorrect. You only need to beat out 7 teams, counting 8th place means beating 8 teams teams 9-15 need 91 pts as they have to leapfrog Edited January 30, 2020 by Shaelon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Shaelon said: Incorrect. You only need to beat out 7 teams, counting 8th place means beating 8 teams lets say Pho is the last spot 8th team at 90pts to make the playoffs, if the ninth team has 89pts then for the 9th team to knock out the 8th team the 9th team would need 90pts and the tie breaker or 91 pts. How many pts would it take to clinch the final playoff spot? what ever the 8th team has plus the tie breaker or 1 extra point. And that is what we are looking at Winnipeg has 54pts currently but 1 game in hand. if they win the game in hand they have 56pts 1pt less then 8th spot. no algorithm can determine if they win that game in hand it's odds is 50-50. If they lose that game then they would actually be 3pts behind. Therefore, the algorithm should run with a margin of zero, and award the game in hand to Winnipeg, that is why tie breakers always give the team with game in hand the upper spot when tied. Notice #1 as first tie breaker. Tie-Breaking Procedure If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the standing of the clubs is determined in the following order. The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage). The greater number of games won, excluding games won in Overtime or by Shootout (i.e., "Regulation Wins"). This figure is reflected in the RW column. The greater number of games won, excluding games won by Shootout. This figure is reflected in the ROW column. The greater number of games won by the Club in any manner (i.e, "Total Wins"). This figure is reflected in the W column. The greater number of points earned in games against each other among two or more tied clubs. For the purpose of determining standing for two or more Clubs that have not played an even number of games with one or more of the other tied Clubs, the first game played in the city that has the extra game (the "odd game") shall not be included. When more than two Clubs are tied, the percentage of available points earned in games among each other (and not including any "odd games") shall be used to determine standing. The greater differential between goals for and against (including goals scored in Overtime or awarded for prevailing in Shootouts) for the entire regular season. This figure is reflected in the DIFF column. The greater number of goals scored (including goals scored in Overtime or awarded for prevailing in Shootouts) for the entire regular season. This figure is reflected in the GF column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said: lets say Pho is the last spot 8th team at 90pts to make the playoffs, if the ninth team has 89pts then for the 9th team to knock out the 8th team the 9th team would need 90pts and the tie breaker or 91 pts. How many pts would it take to clinch the final playoff spot? what ever the 8th team has plus the tie breaker or 1 extra point. And that is what we are looking at Winnipeg has 54pts currently but 1 game in hand. if they win the game in hand they have 56pts 1pt less then 8th spot. no algorithm can determine if they win that game in hand it's odds is 50-50. If they lose that game then they would actually be 3pts behind. Therefore, the algorithm should run with a margin of zero, and award the game in hand to Winnipeg, that is why tie breakers always give the team with game in hand the upper spot when tied. Notice #1 as first tie breaker. Tie-Breaking Procedure If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the standing of the clubs is determined in the following order. The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage). The greater number of games won, excluding games won in Overtime or by Shootout (i.e., "Regulation Wins"). This figure is reflected in the RW column. The greater number of games won, excluding games won by Shootout. This figure is reflected in the ROW column. The greater number of games won by the Club in any manner (i.e, "Total Wins"). This figure is reflected in the W column. The greater number of points earned in games against each other among two or more tied clubs. For the purpose of determining standing for two or more Clubs that have not played an even number of games with one or more of the other tied Clubs, the first game played in the city that has the extra game (the "odd game") shall not be included. When more than two Clubs are tied, the percentage of available points earned in games among each other (and not including any "odd games") shall be used to determine standing. The greater differential between goals for and against (including goals scored in Overtime or awarded for prevailing in Shootouts) for the entire regular season. This figure is reflected in the DIFF column. The greater number of goals scored (including goals scored in Overtime or awarded for prevailing in Shootouts) for the entire regular season. This figure is reflected in the GF column. Correct, but van already occupies a playoff spot, and are above the bar, therefore if arizona gets 90, nsh 88 if van gets 89, they still make the post season if everyone keeps pace, van falls to 8th, and everyone 2-8 moves up 1 spot now for nsh to get into the playoffs, they have to leapfrog arizona, therefore if everyone keeps pace 1-8, and nsh gets 91 pts, it’d be wc2: Nsh - 91 pts 9th: Ari - 90 pts Edited January 30, 2020 by Shaelon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 so by pt % 8th spot Ari and Vegas have .548 Well Winnipeg has .529 pt % use those numbers not the actual pts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Arrow 1983 said: so by pt % 8th spot Ari and Vegas have .548 Well Winnipeg has .529 pt % use those numbers not the actual pts Pt% is the exact same as point pace nsh has a .540 pt%=88 pts rounded same logic applies. If you’re 1-8 already, then as long as pt% >.540 at year end, you make the playoffs, aka 89 pts nsh needs to be above .548% to make the playoffs and beat arizona out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, Shaelon said: Correct, but van already occupies a playoff spot, and are above the bar, therefore if arizona gets 90, nsh 88 if van gets 89, they still make the post season if everyone keeps pace, van falls to 8th, and everyone 2-8 moves up 1 spot in this scenario it would take 89 pts to clinch a playoff spot. not 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleowin Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Arrow 1983 said: in this scenario it would take 89 pts to clinch a playoff spot. not 88 Thats what i said , 88 was the original pace, now its 89, you said it was 91 before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 (edited) So the Math goes like this .548*164=89.87 round up to 90pts .529*164=86.75 but Winnipeg has a game in hand that is 50-50 odds award those point to Winnipeg and they have 88.75 pts round up to 89 And it is 90pts to clinch 164= the max pts possible 82*2=164 Edited January 30, 2020 by Arrow 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Shaelon said: Thats what i said , 88 was the original pace, now its 89, you said it was 91 before look at the math I just posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arrow 1983 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, Shaelon said: Thats what i said , 88 was the original pace, now its 89, you said it was 91 before Neither Vegas or Winnipeg played today so the numbers did not change, Ari loss so they had a better point % at the time you wrote this and have just fallen tonight where Vegas currently sits at .548 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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