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Shaelon

(Official) 2019-2020 NHL Magic Number Thread

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1 hour ago, Arrow 1983 said:

Here is a suggestion, this might give it some context 

 

Columns are TEAM by current rank, Point %, Points on pace equation (164 being the most possible pts)

 

 

STL  .686     .686*164= 112.50

 

Col  .633       .633*164= 103.8

 

Van .608       .608*164=  99.7  That's right the Canucks are currently on pace for 100pts this season, and you see this Clearly 3rd in the conference

 

Dal .600       .600*164=  98.4

 

Edm .580     .580*164=  95.1

 

Cal .577       .577*164= 94.6

 

Nash .550      .550*164=90.2

 

Ari   .548       .548*164=89.9

 

Vegas .548    .548*164= 89.9

 

Win  .529       .529*164=86.8

 

Chi .529       .529*164=86.8

 

Min .520      .520*164=85.3

 

Those are the Current 12 teams that have a decent shot of making the playoffs, unless one of the other 3 go on a massive run. This also helps put into perspective if all of a sudden we see Min sitting in 8th spot even a decent run of 3-4 games puts them right back into the playoff picture.

 

Furthermore, it shows us where the Canucks sit as In reference to pts on pace

 

Feel free to copy and paste this to the OP. I won't sue you for copy infringement, then each day it will be easy for you to update after each nights games played.

Thanks, already have this on my notepad on my computer which I am updating daily. There will be a chart that is eventually created :) could be soon!

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91 pts is now expected.  I think the club is on pace for a century, so the division is well within reach.  After watching the 'Battle of Albeta', only Calgary worries me, the Oilers can't play defence. 

 

Calgary is not scoring  but that is an anomaly.  They have the skill, a very good defence and an okay goalie.  

 

They have the balance and physical strength to be a serious playoff team.  

 

A reversal from our last playoff appearance.   They are the veteran team, we are the up starts.  

 

IMO, we are in a likely position to take the division.  It would be a good thing to have the Oilers and Flames to finish 4-5 in the conference.  

 

What a playoff battle.  The fans deserve it.  

 

 

 

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Making the playoffs with less than 90 pts does happen. These are the teams I found that made the playoffs with under 90 pts going back to the 2005/06 season.

 

Minnesota - 87 in 2015/16
Philadelphia - 88 pts in 2009/10
Montreal - 88 pts in 2009/10

 

 

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Love this.  Always fun to watch the number inch closer to 0!

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On 1/28/2020 at 9:26 PM, Shaelon said:

Hi guys, the magic number game is back, and it'll be more streamlined and simplified moving forward! I will be providing text updates as the season finishes up. The last time I did a chart was back in 2014-2015 when the canucks made the playoffs.

image.thumb.png.7434b037706a2a8b6f1e6885701dee93.png

Right now, here is the Canucks Magic #:

Clinching Numbers:

Playoffs:

Current Projected playoff points: 91

Projected Magic #: 15.0

Record to Achieve: 14-16-1

Division:

Projected Points: 96

Projected Magic #: 17.5

Record to Achieve: 17-14-0

Conference:

Projected Points: 113

Projected Magic #: 26.0

Record to Achieve: 25-5-1


Updated: Jan 30

Nice work, looks great

 

Thanks

Edited by Arrow 1983
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11 hours ago, boziffous said:

Making the playoffs with less than 90 pts does happen. These are the teams I found that made the playoffs with under 90 pts going back to the 2005/06 season.

 

Minnesota - 87 in 2015/16
Philadelphia - 88 pts in 2009/10
Montreal - 88 pts in 2009/10

 

 

So only 3 times since The NHL introduced the shoot out in 2005/06 and 2 of those times came in the same year. Also I would say that the coaching strategy is now more consistent and when 2 teams are tied heading into the 3rd period both teams try to push for the extra point, which would make sense since your data show it has only happen once after 2009/10.

 

So it is very low possibilities

 

I also expect that the data would show, teams fighting for a playoff spot gain more poinst in the last 3rd of the season then the first 2/3 of the season due to the fact that teams tighten up their defensive systems at that point and play for the extra points as the games get tighter. Data does show more 1 goal games in the last 3rd of the season and fewer blowouts then the first 2/3 of the season, I have seen that stat and if I can find it I will post it. 

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On 1/28/2020 at 9:26 PM, Shaelon said:

Hi guys, the magic number game is back, and it'll be more streamlined and simplified moving forward! I will be providing text updates as the season finishes up. The last time I did a chart was back in 2014-2015 when the Canucks made the playoffs

So it is your fault the Canucks haven't made the playoffs since 2014/15 

 

now that you have posted the chart the Canucks will make the playoffs

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Jan 31st, 2020:

Clinching Numbers:

Playoffs:

Current Projected playoff points: 91 / No Change

Projected Magic #: 14.5

Record to Achieve: 14-16-1

Division:

Projected Points: 97 / +1 Point

Projected Magic #: 17.5

Record to Achieve: 17-13-1

Conference:

Projected Points: 111 / -2 Points

Projected Magic #: 24.5

Record to Achieve: 24-6-1

President's Trophy:

Projected Points: 119 / +2 Points

Projected Magic #: 28.5

Record to Achieve: 28-2-1

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4 hours ago, Arrow 1983 said:

So it is your fault the Canucks haven't made the playoffs since 2014/15 

 

now that you have posted the chart the Canucks will make the playoffs

I posted a chart in 2016-2017, but it was short lived as they were awful that year.

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Clinching Numbers:

Playoffs:

Current Projected playoff points: 89 / -2

Projected Magic #: 12.5

Record to Achieve: 12-17-1

Division:

Projected Points: 99 / +1

Projected Magic #: 17.5

Record to Achieve: 17-12-1

Conference:

Projected Points: 109 / -1

Projected Magic #: 22.5

Record to Achieve: 22-7-1

President's Trophy:

Projected Points: 119 / No Change

Projected Magic #: 27.5

Record to Achieve: 27-2-1


Updated: Feb 1st

 

The physical chart will be updated every few days until we get closer to the final stretch.

Edited by Shaelon
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How does the loser point affect our magic number?  Is it only a .5 of a point, and is a win a full point?  Do other teams losing help lower our magic number as well (Flames, Oilers, Blackhawks, etc).

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Hey guys, sorry for the absence, I'm out of town. I will post a new chart at the conclusion of tonight's games.

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On 2/3/2020 at 5:14 PM, BoKnows said:

How does the loser point affect our magic number?  Is it only a .5 of a point, and is a win a full point?  Do other teams losing help lower our magic number as well (Flames, Oilers, Blackhawks, etc).

for every point we collect, our magic # drops by 0.5. Essentially, 1 magic # is worth 2 points.

 

However, one point not earned also means that other teams gain 0.5 against us.

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image.thumb.png.818b4ece3a1df9d889276819860bc764.png

 

Feb 4th Update

Clinching Numbers:

Playoffs:

Current Projected playoff points: 91 / +2

Projected Magic #: 13.0

Record to Achieve: 13-15-0

Division:

Projected Points: 97 / No Change

Projected Magic #: 17.5

Record to Achieve: 16-12-0

Conference:

Projected Points: 110 / +1

Projected Magic #: 24.0

Record to Achieve: 22-5-1

President's Trophy:

Projected Points: 118 / +1

Projected Magic #: 26.5

Record to Achieve: 26-1-1


Updated: Feb 4th

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image.thumb.png.4e3bbb29406109cb5ed68154f06a194a.png

 

Update: Feb 6th

Clinching Numbers:

Playoffs:

Current Projected playoff points: 90 / -1

Projected Magic #: 12.5

Record to Achieve: 12-14-1

Division:

Projected Points: 95 / -2

Projected Magic #: 16.5

Record to Achieve: 16-10-1

Conference:

Projected Points: 108 / -2

Projected Magic #: 21.5

Record to Achieve: 21-5-1

President's Trophy:

Projected Points: 118 / No Change

Projected Magic #: 26.5

Record to Achieve: 26-0-1

 

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Chart updated, see below:

 

Clinching Numbers:

Playoffs:

Current Projected playoff points: 90 / No Change

Projected Magic #: 12.5

Record to Achieve: 12-13-1

Division:

Projected Points: 96 / -1

Projected Magic #: 15.5

Record to Achieve: 15-10-1

Conference:

Projected Points: 108 / No Change

Projected Magic #: 21.5

Record to Achieve: 21-4-1

President's Trophy:

Projected Points: 116 / -2

Projected Magic #: 25.5

Record to Achieve: 25-0-1


Updated: Feb 9th

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Don't forget the supplementary stats...............................;

Percentage that Loui Erickson;

Has another goal against an opponent this season 7.2%

Has another goal against his own team this season 18.9%

One of those goals is an empty netter if he gets another goal  100%

Will be floater the rest of the season 100%

Will be seen in a corner of the rink 0.001%

Will actually hit an opponent 0%

Will be seen with 4 feet of an opposing player 0%

Will carry thru an actual play into the opposing zone without dumping the puck in and then turning off for a line change. 0%

Will get involved in a fight -52%

is planning an early golf season back in Ikealand 100%

Percentage this is his last season with the Canucks 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000%

 

 

 

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