[Discussion & Poll] Markstrom, Tanev & Virtanen - One has to go

[grandmaster]

Given how well all 3 of these players are playing, they will command substantial salary increases when they become UFAs at the end of this year.

 

There is no way the Canucks can keep all 3.

Marky is being estimated to jump 5-6M 

Virtanen at around 4M and

Tanev at about 5M.
 

Who do you choose to let go? 

Do we trade that player at the TDL to recoup some value or keep him for the playoffs?

 

For me it’s simple. Virtanen is the one to go.

 

We have lots of forwards and the team needs Markstrom/Tanev more. I’m not sure about keeping Jake for the playoffs or unloading him for a younger prospect or 2nd rounder (I can’t see us getting much more).

Edited February 1, 2020 by grandmaster

[iceman64]

 It's obviously Tanev... If... That's the case but let him play where he wants (if we can't keep him we owe him that) but things can change in the meantime

  Plus I doubt his body could stand a playoff run, he's been pretty beat up over the last few years especially...

 

Edited February 1, 2020 by iceman64

[JamesB]

It is possible that all three guys will be re-signed. But, assuming one has to go and assuming the "typical contracts" given their performance, the guy they should let go is Tanev. But there are some uncertainties. 

 

1. It is often said that most nights the most important guy on the ice is the goalie. That has been true for the Canucks this year. Obviously the Canucks will try to keep Marky. But I am not sure they will succeed. Marky is getting older and has a chance to cash in as  a UFA this summer. I think the number (maybe 5 to 6 million) is about right. The issue will be term. Marky is having a good year this year but a lot of teams have hurt themselves by signing a goalie long term after one or two good years and then regretting it. The Canucks cannot afford any more dead money. A 3-year deal at 5 million would be excellent. A 4-year deal at 6 million would be the absolute maximum I would go for and I would not feel good about it. Any more than that and I would go with Demko, (with DiPietro in the pipeline). So it is not a lock that Marky will stay. One cost of re-signing Marky is that it would  probably cost them Demko in the expansion draft, and it is far from obvious which guy will the better goalie 2 or 3 years from now. 

 

2. Jake is playing great with EP and Miller, but playing with those guys is obviously boosting his numbers (you could say inflating his numbers). If he keeps playing with those guys he looks like a lock to get to the magic 20-goal plateau and get somewhere between 40 and 50 points. He could ask for quite a bit and, although he is an RFA, he has arbitration rights. And, while Virtanen has improved every year and is playing well now, he is still not as consistent as I would like. Things are going well now but he is not a guy you can count on like Horvat or EP to always give 100% and to always focus when things are not going well. I would not go over 4 million for Jake (for maybe 2 or 3 years) and I think even that would be high, but I think he would get that much or more in arbitration. And, with this good numbers, the Canucks could get a good return for Jake in a trade in the summer.

 

3. Tanev has had a good year and a healthy year but, going forward, you have to expect more injuries and, at age 30, there is a risk of age-related decline, especially considering all the wear and tear on his body. And the Canucks have a very good RD in Utica -- Brogan Rafferty -- who is looking great. Juolevi and Brisebois will also make a push to make the team and Tryamkin is still out there, although all three of those guys shoot left and Green likes Ds to play their natural side. 

 

4. The Canucks will not trade any of these guys at the deadline. The Canucks will definitely still be in playoff contention at the deadline and all three guys are important to the team. Benning will not be looking to lower the chance of making the playoffs by trading away guys who are contributing this much. 

 

5. The Canucks could make some space trading Sutter in the summer. Sutter is helping the team now, but his contract is too much for what he does and I think the Canucks would be happy to basically give him away in the summer to clear the cap room. If he gets injured again there would not be any takers but if he stays healthy and plays well down the stretch they might be able to make a deal. 

 

 

 

 

[Junkyard Dog]

If we don't move anyone out then Tanev probably.

 

Would need to trade Sutter, Baer and maybe someone else if we want to keep everybody.

[ruilin96]

None of the 3 will be gone. We will find a way to trade Sutter/Baertchi or both to free up some cap space. 

[The Colt 45s]

Something Burrows said something like this many years ago, "If we want to win, we have to take a discount."  Some of our 2010/2011 group took those discounts.  While we think someone will be cut, they have all have their opinions of what they want to do.  If this team is as competitive as we think it will, they might want to stay.  Don't discount the discount.

[ReggieBush]

I don't see Virtanen making over 4. I think we go with a bridge in the high 2's or low 3's

[5Fivehole0]

Losing Tanev is going to hurt this team like losing Kadri hurt Toronto

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, jmfaminoff said:

Something Burrows said something like this many years ago, "If we want to win, we have to take a discount."  Some of our 2010/2011 group took those discounts.  While we think someone will be cut, they have all have their opinions of what they want to do.  If this team is as competitive as we think it will, they might want to stay.  Don't discount the discount.

 Burrows did take a big discount - but it was temporary, was rewarded with his final contract...so I guess it should come with a modifier.   

[mll]

1 minute ago, ReggieBush said:

I don't see Virtanen making over 4. I think we go with a bridge in the high 2's or low 3's

Virtanen is 2 years to free agency and has arbitration rights.  Would expect Virtanen to file for arbitration and go through with it unless the Canucks offer him long term.  Arbitration would be for a 1 year deal as 2 would bring him to UFA.  Teams can't walk away if the award is under circa 4.4M (numbers for this season are not yet known). 

 

 

 

[IBatch]

16 minutes ago, ReggieBush said:

I don't see Virtanen making over 4. I think we go with a bridge in the high 2's or low 3's

Yep me too.  He will be bridged 2.75-3.25 two years until we have more money - still that's a big raise and the money has to come from somewhere...Schaller will pay for his ... who's paying for Tanev (3-4 year deal for sure from someone) or Markstrom (4-5 from someone too)....

[stawns]

7 hours ago, grandmaster said:

Given how well all 3 of these players are playing, they will command substantial salary increases when they become UFAs at the end of this year.

 

There is no way the Canucks can keep all 3.

Marky is being estimated to jump 5-6M 

Virtanen at around 4M and

Tanev at about 5M.
 

Who do you choose to let go? 

Do we trade that player at the TDL to recoup some value or keep him for the playoffs?

 

For me it’s simple. Virtanen is the one to go.

 

We have lots of forwards and the team needs Markstrom/Tanev more. I’m not sure about keeping Jake for the playoffs or unloading him for a younger prospect or 2nd rounder (I can’t see us getting much more).

Boes for a first + at the draft.  Problem solved

[grandmaster]

2 hours ago, ruilin96 said:

None of the 3 will be gone. We will find a way to trade Sutter/Baertchi or both to free up some cap space. 

I can’t see anyone taking on Baertchi. He cleared waivers, no one claimed the guy and has been buried for pretty much the whole year. Sutter is another one like LE; a competent NHLer but overpaid (slightly less overpaid than LE).

 

I don’t see JB being able to trade either of these 2....

[Rob_Zepp]

7 hours ago, grandmaster said:

Given how well all 3 of these players there is no way the Canucks can keep all 3.

Totally disagree with this premise so makes it hard to vote in the poll.  There are literally hundreds of viable scenarios between now and next season that has all three of those players still in Vancouver Canuck uniforms.   

[ruilin96]

9 minutes ago, grandmaster said:

I can’t see anyone taking on Baertchi. He cleared waivers, no one claimed the guy and has been buried for pretty much the whole year. Sutter is another one like LE; a competent NHLer but overpaid (slightly less overpaid than LE).

 

I don’t see JB being able to trade either of these 2....

Teams that are desperate for some skill/offence could take a chance on him. Most teams who are interested back off on this season Baertchi because the extra year on the contract. Next year, it is an expiring contract, some team might take a chance.

[Chris12345]

7 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Totally disagree with this premise so makes it hard to vote in the poll.  There are literally hundreds of viable scenarios between now and next season that has all three of those players still in Vancouver Canuck uniforms.   

I totally agree. One could hypothetically trade any player off the roster making the poll hard to vote for.

 

So much time between now and next season and so many unknown variables.

[Provost]

I totally agree with the premise, you can only base it on the current state.

 

If it is any of those three and not involving moves, I have to say Tanev.  I still have a lot of concerns that the Jake we have seen for the last 25 games isn’t sustainable and this might be as valuable as he ever is... BUT.  I would like to see him in the playoffs as it seems to be the style of game he would excel.  I also think Stecher is probably going to be better and cheaper than Tanev over the course of their next contracts, so we have more of a built in replacement.

 

I would LIKE to see us trading away the dead cap even at the cost of solid futures in order to keep all three.  We need to keep trending upwards and not have this year as the high water mark by losing key pieces over the next two years due to cap concerns.

 

If Virtanen goes it needs to include a big cap dump too.  

[Devron]

I’m not even voting. All very important players and JB will figure it out.

 

Virtanen. Really? After all the development, the patience. I don’t think so

Edited February 1, 2020 by Devron44

[grandmaster]

6 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Totally disagree with this premise so makes it hard to vote in the poll.  There are literally hundreds of viable scenarios between now and next season that has all three of those players still in Vancouver Canuck uniforms.   

Not when we have all these overpaid, dead and unmovable contracts:

LE - 6M (Extremely overpaid)

Sutter - 4.38M (overpaid)

Baerchi - 2.29M (minors)

Luongo - 3.03M (recapture)

Spooner - 1.03M (buyout)

Ferlund - 3.5M (LTIR/long term questionable health/concussion issues)

That’s about 20M in bad cap issues!

Salary increases:

Markstrom  - 3.67M to 5/6M

Tanev - 4.45M to 5M

Virtanen - 1.25M to 4M

That’s about 5 or 6M in salary increases! 

Keeping all 3 is NOT going to happen! JB is not a magician....

[grandmaster]

25 minutes ago, Provost said:

I totally agree with the premise, you can only base it on the current state.

 

If it is any of those three and not involving moves, I have to say Tanev.  I still have a lot of concerns that the Jake we have seen for the last 25 games isn’t sustainable and this might be as valuable as he ever is... BUT.  I would like to see him in the playoffs as it seems to be the style of game he would excel.  I also think Stecher is probably going to be better and cheaper than Tanev over the course of their next contracts, so we have more of a built in replacement.

 

I would LIKE to see us trading away the dead cap even at the cost of solid futures in order to keep all three.  We need to keep trending upwards and not have this year as the high water mark by losing key pieces over the next two years due to cap concerns.

 

If Virtanen goes it needs to include a big cap dump too.  

Well stated. We all “LIKE” for things to happen but reality on what is there right now is what we can speak of. Hypothetical situations of something happening is unlikely when we think other teams will take on our issues with out consequence. There are no secrets, teams know our situation and everything about our players. 
 

Hopefully we could dump some salary with the lose of Jake. That move can also make room for Hoglander next year. That kid would be on an ELC and looks NHL ready. 

Edited February 1, 2020 by grandmaster