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DarkIndianRises

The Canucks lack of possession numbers and bleeding high danger chances

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Bury one!!!

 

Now!

 

Edit: Wrong thread ... but I was speaking from a possession place.

Edited by Dr. Crossbar
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high danger goals against this year.

 

Myers 27

Tanev 24

Hughes 23

Boeser 23

Edler 22

Horvat 20

MIller, Pearson 19

Pettersson 17

Virtanen 16

Stecher 15

Benn 15

Gaudette 14

Schaller 14

Beagle 13

LE 11

Roussel 9

Leivo, Fanta 8

Sutter, Motte 5

 

for me, the ones that stand out a bit there (in a negative sense) are Benn, Boeser, perhaps Gaudette and Schaller.

Sutter at only 5, in 33 games is pretty solid.

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The book is out on the Canucks?

The book seems to be out on the Canucks right now, ever since that Boston game.   Slow down the pace, take away time and space for the Canucks, and collapse around the net.   This is how teams have been playing against the Canucks since that Boston game and the Canucks have been swallowing some serious man juice ever since.     Green and the coaching staff better make some adjustments otherwise the Canucks could be headed for a tough February and March........again.

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On 2/13/2020 at 10:03 AM, DarkIndianRises said:

Don’t get me wrong and associate me with those whiny pissants from HF Canucks.   I’m a true fan of this team and am very happy and excited that we’re likely headed to the playoffs.   Regardless of how we do in the playoffs, getting in there is a huge first step for the organization.

 

Having said that - the Canucks need to figure out a way to increase their possession numbers and bleed less high danger chances. 
 

Maybe it’s just me, but it seems like teams have figured out how to play us as of late, and I’ve noticed this since the Boston game.   We are t getting a lot of room to skate, and opposing players are collapsing around their nets whenever we do have chances to shoot.   
 

what do we have to do to improve in these areas? .   Do the Canucks need another defenseman?   Do we need another top six scorer?    Do coaching adjustments need to be made?    
 

Like I said earlier - please don’t confuse with me with the tards over at HF Canucks, but our lack of team possession numbers along with our surrendering of high danger chances is becoming concerning to me.  

I have to actually agree we give up a lot of high danger chances. I’m just not sure it’s about our team talent and more probably about our system. Before anyone goes off on me attacking coaches I’m not, because I’m not really sure, it’s just a hunch we seem to lack at times that lock down game play and actually I don’t think that’s this teams identity.  So what I’m saying is who cares about the chances Let’s see this team grow and let the young players play. I’m enjoying it !!

 

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, oldnews said:

On ice high danger chances against - Canucks:

 

Myers  184 (also the team's highest on high danger scoring chances for = 186)

Tanev 172

Hughes 167

Horvat 155

Miller 145

Stecher 142

Edler 139  (pretty impressive all things considered / hard minutes)

Pearson 134

Virtanen 127

Benn 119

Boeser 118

Pettersson 109

Beagle 95

Gaudette 92

Leivo 87

Schaller 83

Sutter 72  (team best on-ice sv% of .956)

Fanta 70

Eriksson 68

Roussel 61

Motte 56

 

 

not much that is 'surprising' there considering minutes, role/context, matchups, etc, imo.

Benn pretty high considering... Sutter, Beagle, Eriksson = pretty solid.

 

 

Keep in mind Edler has over 10 less games played. Statistically he's on pace the same as Tanev is playing with a rookie who he has to cover for. Edler is playing with somebody who should be better defensively. So Edler isn't posting great numbers. Still nearly 3 high danger chances against per game. That's horrendous. Not to mention both defenseman are defensive defenseman. Meanwhile Tanev is with Quinn Hughes who takes far more risks offensively. 

Edited by MikeyD

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19 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

Ya they bet the same with Carey price bobrovsky schneider and all the long term contracts.. theres not enough goalie past 30 continuing to play at an elite level to take a big gamble. Yes it's a gamble if markstrom doesnt play as well as hes been this year then we be in trouble having an overpaid goalie during the core prime years. I'm not against signing him but no thx to anything more than 4 years max. It's like 1 in 10 15 goalies that plays at an elite level past 30. While markstrom have been amazing this year if u watch him play. His stats does not support him as an elite. If u are elite ur sv% should reflect it like Luongo did in his early years even though his gaa is high his sv% is high. Markstrom gaa is high and his sv% is avg at best.

Okay,

 

 

I don't get what 'stats' your basing your assessment for elite level play.  Marky has been outstanding and absolutely stealing games.  Go read some scouting reports and what actual goaltenders are saying about Marky's play.  This is going back to last years back half season, so it is not "flash in pan' success.  

 

After our last game, I think it is far riskier to not sign Marky and go with Demko vs losing Demko potentially and keeping Marky.  

 

I will go steps further.  It would be insane to not resign him for 6m max with a front loaded deal, structure it so there is no NTC limits on the any year after 4, so if Marky can't maintain his play he would be a great cap dump player to be a vet backup.  

 

Term, shmerm.  6 is longer than I like, 4 would be great for the club, so a 5 year deal, 6m per.  No move restrictions on year 5, with little actual salary.  Expansion protected.

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The Canucks are starting to look tired. This happens to good young teams in the home stretch, they stop scoring and become leaky on defence. Hughes has been coughing up giveaways for a while now and we ignore it, our forwards have stopped being able to forecheck well and sustain offensive pressure and we're a mess defensively as a 5 man unit. To be honest they look tired and I'm not sure if they can hold on for an 82 game pace. Green is going to have to try and employ something to keep the Canucks from collapsing and slipping out of the playoffs because at this rate we're not going to make it.

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On 2/14/2020 at 5:03 AM, DarkIndianRises said:

Don’t get me wrong and associate me with those whiny pissants from HF Canucks.   I’m a true fan of this team and am very happy and excited that we’re likely headed to the playoffs.   Regardless of how we do in the playoffs, getting in there is a huge first step for the organization.

 

Having said that - the Canucks need to figure out a way to increase their possession numbers and bleed less high danger chances. 
 

Maybe it’s just me, but it seems like teams have figured out how to play us as of late, and I’ve noticed this since the Boston game.   We are t getting a lot of room to skate, and opposing players are collapsing around their nets whenever we do have chances to shoot.   
 

what do we have to do to improve in these areas? .   Do the Canucks need another defenseman?   Do we need another top six scorer?    Do coaching adjustments need to be made?    
 

Like I said earlier - please don’t confuse with me with the tards over at HF Canucks, but our lack of team possession numbers along with our surrendering of high danger chances is becoming concerning to me.  

Totally agree, and I will go so far as saying that if they don't improve those stats they may not even make the playoffs with the division being so tight

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3 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

The Canucks are starting to look tired. This happens to good young teams in the home stretch, they stop scoring and become leaky on defence. Hughes has been coughing up giveaways for a while now and we ignore it, our forwards have stopped being able to forecheck well and sustain offensive pressure and we're a mess defensively as a 5 man unit. To be honest they look tired and I'm not sure if they can hold on for an 82 game pace. Green is going to have to try and employ something to keep the Canucks from collapsing and slipping out of the playoffs because at this rate we're not going to make it.

Yup I see it as well....dump and chase is not working for them anymore and the D need to stop pinching cause the forwards are not covering them....but does Green actually see that??? does he acknowledge the problems? 

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4 hours ago, Phat Fingers said:

Okay,

 

 

I don't get what 'stats' your basing your assessment for elite level play.  Marky has been outstanding and absolutely stealing games.  Go read some scouting reports and what actual goaltenders are saying about Marky's play.  This is going back to last years back half season, so it is not "flash in pan' success.  

 

After our last game, I think it is far riskier to not sign Marky and go with Demko vs losing Demko potentially and keeping Marky.  

 

I will go steps further.  It would be insane to not resign him for 6m max with a front loaded deal, structure it so there is no NTC limits on the any year after 4, so if Marky can't maintain his play he would be a great cap dump player to be a vet backup.  

 

Term, shmerm.  6 is longer than I like, 4 would be great for the club, so a 5 year deal, 6m per.  No move restrictions on year 5, with little actual salary.  Expansion protected.

U know how front loaded contract works nowadays right? You cant just have the last couple years at 1mil.. If u sign him to a 6mil contract the minimum you have to pay him is 3mil including bonus in his latter year.. that's why u dont see cap dumps without significant pieces going back nowadays.. if markstrom declines halfway thru. What team would like to pay a backup or even AHL goalie 3mil a year just to reach the salary floor? cap dump is so easy cause we are still holding on to a Eriksson with no team wanting him with majority of his contract paid out already.. 

 

As for stats? The 2 most important stats for a goalie is sv% and goals against no? 2.74 goals against which is actually worse than couple years ago doesnt exactly scream elite. Save percentage went up quite a bit after the last 3 games he had .918 which is good.. but it was sitting at .912 the entire season which is average at best. Great goalies can have high goals against but their save % is also high.. coz one can argue their defense is bad. Gibson stood on his head a few years ago. Luongo did the same in Florida and the first few years in Vancouver high gaa but high sv% coz they are faced with insane amount of shots. Like I said hes given up 3goals in 50% of the games he played. That means we need to score 4+ a night to even have a chance to win in 50% of the games he starts. Hardly an elite stat.

 

And like I said I'm not against signing markstrom. But not at 6 years. Almost every contract of 3+ years given out by Benning turned out to be a bad contract.. the only good one so far is horvat. Every other 3 year + contract turns out either sitting in a press box injured for 50% of the time or playing in the AHL

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13 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

U know how front loaded contract works nowadays right? You cant just have the last couple years at 1mil.. If u sign him to a 6mil contract the minimum you have to pay him is 3mil including bonus in his latter year.. that's why u dont see cap dumps without significant pieces going back nowadays.. if markstrom declines halfway thru. What team would like to pay a backup or even AHL goalie 3mil a year just to reach the salary floor? cap dump is so easy cause we are still holding on to a Eriksson with no team wanting him with majority of his contract paid out already.. 

 

As for stats? The 2 most important stats for a goalie is sv% and goals against no? 2.74 goals against which is actually worse than couple years ago doesnt exactly scream elite. Save percentage went up quite a bit after the last 3 games he had .918 which is good.. but it was sitting at .912 the entire season which is average at best. Great goalies can have high goals against but their save % is also high.. coz one can argue their defense is bad. Gibson stood on his head a few years ago. Luongo did the same in Florida and the first few years in Vancouver high gaa but high sv% coz they are faced with insane amount of shots. Like I said hes given up 3goals in 50% of the games he played. That means we need to score 4+ a night to even have a chance to win in 50% of the games he starts. Hardly an elite stat.

 

And like I said I'm not against signing markstrom. But not at 6 years. Almost every contract of 3+ years given out by Benning turned out to be a bad contract.. the only good one so far is horvat. Every other 3 year + contract turns out either sitting in a press box injured for 50% of the time or playing in the AHL

So I do know how front loaded deals work.  I also know that there is a cap floor and getting a vet goalie to be a back up is pretty common.  Remember Miller, 35 signed for 6x3 and did a great job on a horrible team.  

 

So I don't have to look far.  With Marky's current play as now the bar on which he will be judged for a number of years.

 

As for the stats... damnes statistics...

 

I don't blame you for reading his numbers that way, but Save % is a way better metric that  GAA which, like plus minus is a team stat.  

 

There is another newer stat that advanced goalie sites are using, it's based on basically the almost a certain goal saved.  The highlight reel absolute robbery saves that change the outcomes of games.  

 

I am paraphrasing, the name currently escapes me.  Marky is a +22 in this, leading the league.  The next highest I believe is Hotlby at +15.  

 

So that is 22 surefire goals that Marky shouldn't have saved, that he did.  When Marky started leading that category, that's when league media started Marky deserves a Vezina nomination talk.  

 

But let's look at the 91.8% save percentage along with the 2.74gaa.  

 

So the 91.8% is a career best for Marky.  Yet the 2.74 is high, totally agree.  

 

But that's odd?  How can Marky be setting career high's in Save % and doing below avg in GAA?  Because he gets a ton of shots, because the team is a sieve defensively. 

 

The +22 metric is also telling and it shows that Marky is tending for a high scoring, offensive team that surrenders a ton of chances to take chances.  That the Canucks are a collective plus 11 even after that 5-1 garbage loss to the Ducks.  Demko is not saving those key goals atm.  Also another big stat is wins, 22-16-3 in 41 starts.

 

  He is going to get the lions share of starts for the rest of the year, so let's project his wins based on him playing 60 games.  He can be expected to go 10-7-2 to 10-8-1 over that span.  At this moment if he gets less than 32 wins this year in 60 games played, it will be a let down.  

 

All great numbers.  Personally I don't see the Vezina hype atm.  He is clearly our MVP and we would be sucking wind without him.  

 

I want keep him on a deal that is structured to give the team the ability to move him in 4 years, but also gives Marky a solid 5 to 6 years to a max of 6m per season.   If either Demko (don't think he stays) or Dipietro (thing this kid is the real deal) are ready to take the starters role Marky would be expected to be moved for year 5 to 6 max.  

 

Based on Demko's contract and that we have him signed until next year and Mikey's ELC and following deal, we will have our goalies signed to about 7.05m per year for the next 3 years, if Demko is dealt or drafted. 

 

That number doesn't scare me one bit.  

 

That's my plan and my reasoning.  

 

So, what's your plan?  

 

You bring up arguements against signing Marky beyond 4 years, but what's your solution?  If not Marky, who?, How much? And how long?  

 

I have asked before and you don't offer one.  Do you only bring up problems or do you also have solutions?  

 

Edited by Phat Fingers

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6 hours ago, Phat Fingers said:

So I do know how front loaded deals work.  I also know that there is a cap floor and getting a vet goalie to be a back up is pretty common.  Remember Miller, 35 signed for 6x3 and did a great job on a horrible team.  

 

So I don't have to look far.  With Marky's current play as now the bar on which he will be judged for a number of years.

 

As for the stats... damnes statistics...

 

I don't blame you for reading his numbers that way, but Save % is a way better metric that  GAA which, like plus minus is a team stat.  

 

There is another newer stat that advanced goalie sites are using, it's based on basically the almost a certain goal saved.  The highlight reel absolute robbery saves that change the outcomes of games.  

 

I am paraphrasing, the name currently escapes me.  Marky is a +22 in this, leading the league.  The next highest I believe is Hotlby at +15.  

 

So that is 22 surefire goals that Marky shouldn't have saved, that he did.  When Marky started leading that category, that's when league media started Marky deserves a Vezina nomination talk.  

 

But let's look at the 91.8% save percentage along with the 2.74gaa.  

 

So the 91.8% is a career best for Marky.  Yet the 2.74 is high, totally agree.  

 

But that's odd?  How can Marky be setting career high's in Save % and doing below avg in GAA?  Because he gets a ton of shots, because the team is a sieve defensively. 

 

The +22 metric is also telling and it shows that Marky is tending for a high scoring, offensive team that surrenders a ton of chances to take chances.  That the Canucks are a collective plus 11 even after that 5-1 garbage loss to the Ducks.  Demko is not saving those key goals atm.  Also another big stat is wins, 22-16-3 in 41 starts.

 

  He is going to get the lions share of starts for the rest of the year, so let's project his wins based on him playing 60 games.  He can be expected to go 10-7-2 to 10-8-1 over that span.  At this moment if he gets less than 32 wins this year in 60 games played, it will be a let down.  

 

All great numbers.  Personally I don't see the Vezina hype atm.  He is clearly our MVP and we would be sucking wind without him.  

 

I want keep him on a deal that is structured to give the team the ability to move him in 4 years, but also gives Marky a solid 5 to 6 years to a max of 6m per season.   If either Demko (don't think he stays) or Dipietro (thing this kid is the real deal) are ready to take the starters role Marky would be expected to be moved for year 5 to 6 max.  

 

Based on Demko's contract and that we have him signed until next year and Mikey's ELC and following deal, we will have our goalies signed to about 7.05m per year for the next 3 years, if Demko is dealt or drafted. 

 

That number doesn't scare me one bit.  

 

That's my plan and my reasoning.  

 

So, what's your plan?  

 

You bring up arguements against signing Marky beyond 4 years, but what's your solution?  If not Marky, who?, How much? And how long?  

 

I have asked before and you don't offer one.  Do you only bring up problems or do you also have solutions?  

 

If not marky then who? Every year theres goalie going into FA. Every year theres teams just rolling the dice believing in the goalies they drafted. Pittsburgh with going with Murray and then now going with jarry.  We all thought Columbus is dead after losing bobrovsky then up comes elvis with 0 experience. Kuemper out of no where with a vezina caliber season in arizona. Jordan binnington out of no where last year. Samsonov likely taking over for holtby next year. Grubauer replacing Varlamov. Theres plenty of example teams going with goalies in their system or a goalie in free agent and all have done relatively well with it. And do u not read at all? I did say u can have a high gaa and a high sv% if are playing great. Markstrom sv% have been .912 the entire season until the last couple games including a 40+ save shutout which will jump % hes been as high as .921 and as low as .907 but have settled around .912 for majority of the season I expect him to finish around .914 That puts him close to the bottom half of the league. Great hes making those high scoring chances save but his sv% isn't anywhere close to the leaders so what does that mean then? Hes giving up more low chances goal than others? And you are an idiot if u blame demko for not making saves last game as the reason we lost lol. 

 

Also wth are u talking about with miller? A vet backup to get to the cap floor? He fits 0 of those lol... he was not a backup... and he was not signed to reach the cap floor... the canucks did not admit to the rebuild when they signed miller lol they had the intention to make the playoff with their roster..

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16 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

If not marky then who? Every year theres goalie going into FA. Every year theres teams just rolling the dice believing in the goalies they drafted. Pittsburgh with going with Murray and then now going with jarry.  We all thought Columbus is dead after losing bobrovsky then up comes elvis with 0 experience. Kuemper out of no where with a vezina caliber season in arizona. Jordan binnington out of no where last year. Samsonov likely taking over for holtby next year. Grubauer replacing Varlamov. Theres plenty of example teams going with goalies in their system or a goalie in free agent and all have done relatively well with it. And do u not read at all? I did say u can have a high gaa and a high sv% if are playing great. Markstrom sv% have been .912 the entire season until the last couple games including a 40+ save shutout which will jump % hes been as high as .921 and as low as .907 but have settled around .912 for majority of the season I expect him to finish around .914 That puts him close to the bottom half of the league. Great hes making those high scoring chances save but his sv% isn't anywhere close to the leaders so what does that mean then? Hes giving up more low chances goal than others? And you are an idiot if u blame demko for not making saves last game as the reason we lost lol. 

 

Also wth are u talking about with miller? A vet backup to get to the cap floor? He fits 0 of those lol... he was not a backup... and he was not signed to reach the cap floor... the canucks did not admit to the rebuild when they signed miller lol they had the intention to make the playoff with their roster..

Hey wai-Lai... 

 

Yes I read.  I can also write far better than yourself.  Even if this is your second language, you lack critcial thinking as you use stats like 3 yearold.  

 

Clearly, by your... I don't want to us logic, because your not logical... but your attempt at analysis is that because there are games remaining, that Marky's current stats could decline if he play declines, therefore his current Save % doesn't matter cause it can change... 

 

Well that is a waste of time.  Just want to point out the obvious, if he play goes into the toilet, he isn't getting a new contract. 

 

So you don't have a target FA to replace Marky.  You mention it, but who, how much, how long.... 

 

Your idea to address the long term is to just sign an anonymous goalie?  Cause that is how to fill.the most important position on any team... just fill in the blank for the starting goalie.

 

You vaguely talk about other clubs going with goalies from within, yet don't name either one of our young guys, their names are Demko and Dipietro, don't you know that... see I can do it too. 

 

You have no plan.  

 

Just throwing $&!# at the wall and see if it sticks or not isn't a plan.  That's a failure.  

 

One thing, all those young guys won their spot.  Murray's outplayed Fluery, Binnington won his starting role etc...  

 

Demko hasn't done that, yet your okay with keeping our second best goalie atm and then what???  

 

Again not a plan.  

 

No need to respond.  I won't bother to respond to you.  

 

 

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