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nuckin_futz

Saudi Arabia declares oil price war on fellow OPEC (and non OPEC)members.

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5 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

The cheapest oil is what is going to be used. Let's say oil drops to $20/barrel. And the US shale producers cannot produce it that cheap. What is industry going to do? Pay above market for domestic oil or import the cheap stuff? They'll use the cheap stuff.

 

Then you're beholden to foreign sources of cheap energy again. Then they have you over a barrel. No pun intended. OK it was intended.

 

Russia said today they can ride out $25-30 oil for 6-10 years. Pretty sure the Saudi's can too.

 

If USA withholds military sales the Russians, Chinese, French, Germans, Brits, Canadians etc will gladly pick up the slack.

 

Yeah other OPEC members have to be pissed but there's  zip they can do about it. No one is afraid of Ecuador, Gabon or Angola.

Yeah, I guess my view was just too short-term. 

 

I guess China must be salivating over the price war.

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1 minute ago, Kragar said:

Yeah, I guess my view was just too short-term. 

 

I guess China must be salivating over the price war.

Yeah they don't have a lot of domestic production. they're loving this. So is India.

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On 3/8/2020 at 1:46 PM, Ryan Strome said:

 

Really? What did you use to make that post?

What's your point here? 

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16 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Who's paying for these?

The private investors who proposed to build them. It was JT who killed energy east and energy east makes the most sense.

I can live with Ottawa, BC, Ontario, etc building and owning refineries but you can't ask businesses to take a loss, why would they?

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Just now, Gnarcore said:

What's your point here? 

Were you insinuating you don't live an oil dependent life?

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Maybe it's a good time to point out we could spend on alternatives seeing as this industry is so volatile? 


And no, that doesn't mean we stop using oil tomorrow. But, maybe we should consider not deepening our reliance on it?

 

Or not, you know, whatevs.

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1 hour ago, BPA said:

Make it a Crown owned corporation?

Canada owns it, extracts it, refines it, and sells it to the rest of the Provinces?

 

 

You mean like Petro Canada that we sold off? 

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9 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

The private investors who proposed to build them. It was JT who killed energy east and energy east makes the most sense.

I can live with Ottawa, BC, Ontario, etc building and owning refineries but you can't ask businesses to take a loss, why would they?

Cite EVERY reason energy east died.

 

Using a blanket statement like "jt killed it" is entirely misleading

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6 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Cite EVERY reason energy east died.

 

Using a blanket statement like "jt killed it" is entirely misleading

Energy East pipeline review topics include upstream, downstream GHG emissions

In a decision cheered by environmentalists but considered a setback by the oil industry, Canada’s national energy regulator says it will allow wider discussion of greenhouse gas emission issues in upcoming hearings for the Energy East Pipeline.

The National Energy Board said Wednesday it will for the first time consider the public interest impact of upstream and downstream GHG emissions from potential increased production and consumption of oil resulting from the project.

 

Previously, the NEB only considered GHG emissions directly associated with construction and operation of a pipeline.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3690864/review-topics-to-be-released-for-energy-east-pipeline-may-include-ghg-emissions/

 

In October, the TransCanada’s Energy East project was officially cancelled, after being blindsided with a final regulatory obstacle. The project, which would have shipped 1.2 million barrels of oil from west to east across Canada, was an important piece of infrastructure for the petroleum energy sector, a vital part of the Canadian economy.

The new requirement from the National Energy Board, that finally doomed the project, was that approval would be contingent on consideration of “downstream greenhouse emissions” in addition to the usual growing list of obstacles for pipeline approvals in Canada.

https://boereport.com/2017/11/24/downstream-greenhouse-gas-emissions-kill-energy-east/

 

Canada to consider indirect emissions for TransCanada Energy East pipe

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-energy-regulator/canada-to-consider-indirect-emissions-for-transcanada-energy-east-pipe-idUSKCN1B32M6

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

The cheapest oil is what is going to be used. Let's say oil drops to $20/barrel. And the US shale producers cannot produce it that cheap. What is industry going to do? Pay above market for domestic oil or import the cheap stuff? They'll use the cheap stuff.

 

Then you're beholden to foreign sources of cheap energy again. Then they have you over a barrel. No pun intended. OK it was intended.

 

Russia said today they can ride out $25-30 oil for 6-10 years. Pretty sure the Saudi's can too.

 

If USA withholds military sales the Russians, Chinese, French, Germans, Brits, Canadians etc will gladly pick up the slack.

 

Yeah other OPEC members have to be pissed but there's  zip they can do about it. No one is afraid of Ecuador, Gabon or Angola.

For the Russians break even point for oil is around $40 or so if I am not mistaken.

They have been pumping oil money into national wealth fund that is used to keep social and political peace.

 

Saudis pretty much don’t have anything but the oil.

They will drive shale oil producers out of business but there is no way for S.A and Russia to last several years, especially Saudis. 
 

Saudis are surrounded with enemies and any arms embargo would put them in grave danger.

Majority of their equipment is bought from the U.S, that includes parts, munitions, training etc.

 

For example all combat helicopters are U.S made, as well as 4000 tanks and armored vehicles.

By the time they get re supplied and re trained on new weapon systems from China, Russia etc. they will be long dead.
 

Edited by CBH1926

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4 hours ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

You mean like Petro Canada that we sold off? 

That was a stupid move.  No foresight.  Quick cash grab.

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5 hours ago, Ryan Strome said:

When did I say Ottawa should bail anyone out.

Great discussion you totally didn't respond to my post.

You just literally said to "use the money to top it up to private businesses".

 

Isn't that a bail-out??

 

 

The start up costs would be alot.  But it would help Canada not be at the mercy of the oil barons.

 

I'm not opposed to Canada controlling resources as long as there can be an independent oversight committee to prevent government abuse.

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4 minutes ago, BPA said:

You just literally said to "use the money to top it up to private businesses".

 

Isn't that a bail-out??

 

 

The start up costs would be alot.  But it would help Canada not be at the mercy of the oil barons.

 

I'm not opposed to Canada controlling resources as long as there can be an independent oversight committee to prevent government abuse.

No I said if Ottawa wants to give up its royalties. You want a communist system with Alberta's resources how thoughtful of you LOL so sure everyone in Canada gets cheaper Fuel and everybody in Alberta makes less money what a wonderful idea. Why don't we take the BC logging industry and have the government run it so I can get my house a lot cheaper? This is why your idea fails miserably because you don't consider Alberta in this matter you only care about yourself.

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5 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

No I said if Ottawa wants to give up its royalties. You want a communist system with Alberta's resources how thoughtful of you LOL so sure everyone in Canada gets cheaper Fuel and everybody in Alberta makes less money what a wonderful idea. Why don't we take the BC logging industry and have the government run it so I can get my house a lot cheaper? This is why your idea fails miserably because you don't consider Alberta in this matter you only care about yourself.

Sure.  Add BC logging into the mix.  I find it staggering that with all the resources Canada has, we pay a premium for everything. 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Ryan Strome said:

Were you insinuating you don't live an oil dependent life?

Not even remotely. Read again. I said I am invested long on non oil related areas.  With the crash there is opportunity here to get back into the sector though. 

 

EDIT: I own multiple motorbikes and a car...far from oil independent. Plan to buy another bike this spring. I generally wish Alberta good luck there even while posting a gif. This could be real ugly. 

Edited by Gnarcore

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4 hours ago, Ryan Strome said:

The private investors who proposed to build them. It was JT who killed energy east and energy east makes the most sense.

I can live with Ottawa, BC, Ontario, etc building and owning refineries but you can't ask businesses to take a loss, why would they?

RS you might have noticed you don’t hear much about the refinery Black Press was promoting in Rupert. They had Stockwell Day promoting it. I am sure it died a natural death because simple reality reared its head. You suggest that government build refineries to, I assume, assuage, those who think they are being ripped off by oil companies. In my career I was involved in the industry at the wholesale level. There were refineries sprinkled across the West, 4-5 on the Coast. They are gone for a reason. Western Canada consumption is primarily diesel driven. Industry, mining, agriculture etc. This produces surplus gas that had to go somewhere. No matter the price consumption of gas is inelastic. To solve this problem Canadian refineries had to export gas to the USA. Yes, much of that border gas bought in the USA comes from Canada. This was not a choice it had to be done to enable diesel fuel production. 

 

This reality then had to contend with the economics of scale. 10, 15 even 25K boe per day refineries are not economic. They were shut down. So Parkland at the coast does 50K and Shell, Essa and Suncor in Edmonton are doing 200K each +/-. There are a few co-op plants as well. I might be a tad out of date. When I was in the business we got very good at estimating sales to ensure as close to 100% production runs as possible. In the States jobbers have to sign minimum/maximum purchase contracts. In Western Canada that  is done by the majors with add ons by independents. Very defined and accurate business and there is competition. 

 

If consumers want as competitve as possible gas costs then insist that dealers buy their product at rack pricing at selected load racks.  Published rack pricing. Anything less is BS and your provincial government is heavily involved in the BS. BC consumers seem prepared to buy their gas at 40% more than AB. I can see why the industry would have no love for a province that has done such a low brow scam on them. That said I would look more closely at government taxation to find out why they pay what they do. By the way if the old Trans Mountain wasn’t there the cost of gas in Vancouver would be even higher.

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31 minutes ago, BPA said:

That was a stupid move.  No foresight.  Quick cash grab.

Speaking of no foresight your communist plan will scare investors away from Canada. 

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12 minutes ago, BPA said:

Sure.  Add BC logging into the mix.  I find it staggering that with all the resources Canada has, we pay a premium for everything. 

So you just want a communist country? We don't pay a premium, we pay market value. 

2 minutes ago, Gnarcore said:

Not even remotely. Read again. I said I am invested long on non oil related areas.  With the crash there is opportunity here to get back into the sector though. 

My bad.

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5 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

RS you might have noticed you don’t hear much about the refinery Black Press was promoting in Rupert. They had Stockwell Day promoting it. I am sure it died a natural death because simple reality reared its head. You suggest that government build refineries to, I assume, assuage, those who think they are being ripped off by oil companies. In my career I was involved in the industry at the wholesale level. There were refineries sprinkled across the West, 4-5 on the Coast. They are gone for a reason. Western Canada consumption is primarily diesel driven. Industry, mining, agriculture etc. This produces surplus gas that had to go somewhere. No matter the price consumption of gas is inelastic. To solve this problem Canadian refineries had to export gas to the USA. Yes, much of that border gas bought in the USA comes from Canada. This was not a choice it had to be done to enable diesel fuel production. 

 

This reality then had to contend with the economics of scale. 10, 15 even 25K boe per day refineries are not economic. They were shut down. So Parkland at the coast does 50K and Shell, Essa and Suncor in Edmonton are doing 200K each +/-. There are a few co-op plants as well. I might be a tad out of date. When I was in the business we got very good at estimating sales to ensure as close to 100% production runs as possible. In the States jobbers have to sign minimum/maximum purchase contracts. In Western Canada that  is done by the majors with add ons by independents. Very defined and accurate business and there is competition. 

 

If consumers want as competitve as possible gas costs then insist that dealers buy their product at rack pricing at selected load racks.  Published rack pricing. Anything less is BS and your provincial government is heavily involved in the BS. BC consumers seem prepared to buy their gas at 40% more than AB. I can see why the industry would have no love for a province that has done such a low brow scam on them. That said I would look more closely at government taxation to find out why they pay what they do. By the way if the old Trans Mountain wasn’t there the cost of gas in Vancouver would be even higher.

You might know alot on this but apparently natural gas producers were pretty much paying the Americans to take the product. 

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1 minute ago, Ryan Strome said:

You might know alot on this but apparently natural gas producers were pretty much paying the Americans to take the product. 

I am not that knowledgeable about the natural gas business. I agree that NG pricing has been brutal for many years. Shell LNG in PR has to be duplicated many fold to create a healthy industry. 

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