RowdyCanuck Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, BPA said: You just literally said to "use the money to top it up to private businesses". Isn't that a bail-out?? The start up costs would be alot. But it would help Canada not be at the mercy of the oil barons. I'm not opposed to Canada controlling resources as long as there can be an oversight committee to prevent government abuse. I think the government should cover losses for investors when projects have been approved and they have jumped threw every hoop and it still gets dragged out, don't get me wrong that is a risk you take in any business though but after the pipeline b.s a lot of the investors I know have pulled their money out of Canada and won't invest in Canada again until the PM shows his the one running the country.....yes JT bought the pipeline but one of the biggest reasons is to save face and to try and keep up investors from pulling their money out of Canada , the world has taken notice...... The bolded part is not a bad idea... But Dumb question, who do you trust more suits or the government? To me that's like asking if you want to drink no name bleach or name brand ha I wouldn't trust either cause they will both find a way to F things up...... Edited March 10, 2020 by RowdyCanuck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mackcanuck Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) So, Do I have this right? A barrel of oil is now worth the same as a bottle of hand sanitizer or a package of toilet paper?? Edited March 10, 2020 by Mackcanuck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 Both the Russians and Saudis took it on the chin yesterday just like everyone else in the markets. Their economies are tied to global investment beyond oil just like everyone else. I suspect what happened yesterday will drive them back to the table to reach some compromise. Does $40 or $50 oil work for American frackers? No it doesn’t. Producers who are market driven will have lenders running for the doors. USA producers and to a lesser extent Canadian producers will be hurt most on the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BPA Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 hours ago, RowdyCanuck said: I think the government should cover losses for investors when projects have been approved and they have jumped threw every hoop and it still gets dragged out, don't get me wrong that is a risk you take in any business though but after the pipeline b.s a lot of the investors I know have pulled their money out of Canada and won't invest in Canada again until the PM shows his the one running the country.....yes JT bought the pipeline but one of the biggest reasons is to save face and to try and keep up investors from pulling their money out of Canada , the world has taken notice...... The bolded part is not a bad idea... But Dumb question, who do you trust more suits or the government? To me that's like asking if you want to drink no name bleach or name brand ha I wouldn't trust either cause they will both find a way to F things up...... I would have the opposition party form the oversight committee. Nothing like having the enemy dig up dirt when there is something there to be found. Kinda keeps you honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 10, 2020 Author Share Posted March 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, Boudrias said: Both the Russians and Saudis took it on the chin yesterday just like everyone else in the markets. Their economies are tied to global investment beyond oil just like everyone else. I suspect what happened yesterday will drive them back to the table to reach some compromise. Does $40 or $50 oil work for American frackers? No it doesn’t. Producers who are market driven will have lenders running for the doors. USA producers and to a lesser extent Canadian producers will be hurt most on the surface. Sure doesn't look like that ........... Saudi Aramco says they will supply its customers with 12.3 mil bpd in April Tue 10 Mar 2020 08:39:08 GMT Saudi Arabia currently pumps around 9.7 mil bpd The kingdom is showing that they mean business in the war with Russia as both countries look to battle for market share now and see who will cave first. Either way, the headline won't comfort oil traders as the reality of the situation continues to sink in. *********************** Russia's Novak: Russia can hike production by 500k bpd in the near future Tue 10 Mar 2020 08:57:53 GMT Says that the door is not closed for OPEC+ cooperation OPEC call for deeper cuts is what led to disagreement Russian oil market remains competitive amid lower oil prices As Russia and Saudi Arabia go tit-for-tat in this war on oil output, it is hard to see prices hold up for too long as this continues. Novak also goes on to say that the next OPEC+ meetings could be held in May or June but don't hold your breath. Both sides are playing this out hoping one side will cave in and until that happens, there is no reason why another OPEC+ meeting should be held. ******************************** Saudi Arabia says that doesn't see wisdom in a OPEC+ meeting in May or June Tue 10 Mar 2020 10:25:55 GMT The battle has just begun As mentioned earlier, until either of them shows some willingness to compromise, there is no point for any more OPEC+ meetings moving forward. Meanwhile, Russian energy minister Novak has just called a meeting with Russian oil companies for tomorrow to discuss more on the matter. I just don't see how either side will be backing off so early in the battle. So, expect many more months of this to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Sure doesn't look like that ........... Saudi Aramco says they will supply its customers with 12.3 mil bpd in April Tue 10 Mar 2020 08:39:08 GMT Saudi Arabia currently pumps around 9.7 mil bpd The kingdom is showing that they mean business in the war with Russia as both countries look to battle for market share now and see who will cave first. Either way, the headline won't comfort oil traders as the reality of the situation continues to sink in. *********************** Russia's Novak: Russia can hike production by 500k bpd in the near future Tue 10 Mar 2020 08:57:53 GMT Says that the door is not closed for OPEC+ cooperation OPEC call for deeper cuts is what led to disagreement Russian oil market remains competitive amid lower oil prices As Russia and Saudi Arabia go tit-for-tat in this war on oil output, it is hard to see prices hold up for too long as this continues. Novak also goes on to say that the next OPEC+ meetings could be held in May or June but don't hold your breath. Both sides are playing this out hoping one side will cave in and until that happens, there is no reason why another OPEC+ meeting should be held. ******************************** Saudi Arabia says that doesn't see wisdom in a OPEC+ meeting in May or June Tue 10 Mar 2020 10:25:55 GMT The battle has just begun As mentioned earlier, until either of them shows some willingness to compromise, there is no point for any more OPEC+ meetings moving forward. Meanwhile, Russian energy minister Novak has just called a meeting with Russian oil companies for tomorrow to discuss more on the matter. I just don't see how either side will be backing off so early in the battle. So, expect many more months of this to come. So, we're potentially 3-4 months away from another potential meeting with an increase of almost 4 million BPD from Russia and SA alone. That's some pretty ugly news. Markets rebounding thus far today and investors look and hope to make a 10% return after yesterdays sell offs but that is not good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 10, 2020 Author Share Posted March 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, Warhippy said: Markets rebounding thus far today and investors look and hope to make a 10% return after yesterdays sell offs but that is not good news Let the traders have their fun. The end game here is it's going lower, much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darius Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Let the traders have their fun. The end game here is it's going lower, much lower. if i were to bet on this im thinking theres gonna be a general and perhaps unprecedented downturn for about a year (maybe 2), mixed with volatility...once (if) the public gets desensitized to all this and or they announce a vaccine we will probably see the start of a recovery...todays little uptick means little.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said: Sure doesn't look like that ........... Saudi Aramco says they will supply its customers with 12.3 mil bpd in April Tue 10 Mar 2020 08:39:08 GMT Saudi Arabia currently pumps around 9.7 mil bpd The kingdom is showing that they mean business in the war with Russia as both countries look to battle for market share now and see who will cave first. Either way, the headline won't comfort oil traders as the reality of the situation continues to sink in. *********************** Russia's Novak: Russia can hike production by 500k bpd in the near future Tue 10 Mar 2020 08:57:53 GMT Says that the door is not closed for OPEC+ cooperation OPEC call for deeper cuts is what led to disagreement Russian oil market remains competitive amid lower oil prices As Russia and Saudi Arabia go tit-for-tat in this war on oil output, it is hard to see prices hold up for too long as this continues. Novak also goes on to say that the next OPEC+ meetings could be held in May or June but don't hold your breath. Both sides are playing this out hoping one side will cave in and until that happens, there is no reason why another OPEC+ meeting should be held. ******************************** Saudi Arabia says that doesn't see wisdom in a OPEC+ meeting in May or June Tue 10 Mar 2020 10:25:55 GMT The battle has just begun As mentioned earlier, until either of them shows some willingness to compromise, there is no point for any more OPEC+ meetings moving forward. Meanwhile, Russian energy minister Novak has just called a meeting with Russian oil companies for tomorrow to discuss more on the matter. I just don't see how either side will be backing off so early in the battle. So, expect many more months of this to come. Maybe wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 10, 2020 Author Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) Saudi Arabia makes special supertanker bookings to flood US market with oil Tue 10 Mar 2020 15:54:56 GMT Doesn't sound like Saudi Arabia is bluffing Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia's biggest tanker company has booked a batch of ships to transport oil to the United States. They say five very large crude carriers are booked for trips to the US Gulf. Each carry about 2 million barrels of oil. ************************** The stones on this Mohammad Bin Salman dude. lol Edited March 10, 2020 by nuckin_futz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Warhippy said: So, we're potentially 3-4 months away from another potential meeting with an increase of almost 4 million BPD from Russia and SA alone. That's some pretty ugly news. Markets rebounding thus far today and investors look and hope to make a 10% return after yesterdays sell offs but that is not good news Using your time frame one could ask where world economies will be by then? How many countries will default and compound the crisis? To me it isn’t just the virus or oil flooding the world. It is all about world governance being able to handle a debt challenge that makes 2008 look like child’s play. People misplace confidence in the ‘system’ to pull out from collapse. Personal to corporate to government. Our system is so leveraged any failure to met a commitment could trigger a run on the bank, so to speak. I think of Argentina’s last default and how that shook the world. World Bank means nothing. The USA had to step in. The USA might not be there this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowdyCanuck Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said: Saudi Arabia makes special supertanker bookings to flood US market with oil Tue 10 Mar 2020 15:54:56 GMT Doesn't sound like Saudi Arabia is bluffing Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia's biggest tanker company has booked a batch of ships to transport oil to the United States. They say five very large crude carriers are booked for trips to the US Gulf. Each carry about 2 million barrels of oil. ************************** The stones on this Mohammad Bin Salman dude. lol Putin isn't crazy enough to blow one of those tankers up I hope ha..... smart play though dropping the USA name ha im kinda surprised they are going to the states since trump is best friend with Putin , oops I mean rumoured friends ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Boudrias said: Using your time frame one could ask where world economies will be by then? How many countries will default and compound the crisis? To me it isn’t just the virus or oil flooding the world. It is all about world governance being able to handle a debt challenge that makes 2008 look like child’s play. People misplace confidence in the ‘system’ to pull out from collapse. Personal to corporate to government. Our system is so leveraged any failure to met a commitment could trigger a run on the bank, so to speak. I think of Argentina’s last default and how that shook the world. World Bank means nothing. The USA had to step in. The USA might not be there this time. Actually, this is interesting. A history moment for you Prior to the true meltdown of 2008, there was a smaller lesser known one. Iceland's economy effectively shattered. Laansbanki and Icelands 3 major banks collapsed. This was not in fact due to anything to do with the financial crisis but instead due to a systemic failure that started with a housing project in Malaysia or the Philippines. There were so many strings tied to one development company that once it failed the entire section fell apart like dominoes. it started in early 2007 but by mid 2008 it was all over and Iceland was picking itself back up. All because of one major company defaulting which lead to a cascade of failures as everyone had lent money but nobody had money to pay it back. Shuffling loans down the line so to speak. Should this be sustained over the coming weeks/months we will start to see it first I think in the NE USA and the smaller OPEC nations that cannot compete at all. I wonder what will unravel when those threads start to come apart 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Boudrias said: Using your time frame one could ask where world economies will be by then? How many countries will default and compound the crisis? To me it isn’t just the virus or oil flooding the world. It is all about world governance being able to handle a debt challenge that makes 2008 look like child’s play. People misplace confidence in the ‘system’ to pull out from collapse. Personal to corporate to government. Our system is so leveraged any failure to met a commitment could trigger a run on the bank, so to speak. I think of Argentina’s last default and how that shook the world. World Bank means nothing. The USA had to step in. The USA might not be there this time. Historically doesn’t this all add up to a global fighting war? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 10, 2020 Author Share Posted March 10, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Warhippy said: Actually, this is interesting. A history moment for you Prior to the true meltdown of 2008, there was a smaller lesser known one. Iceland's economy effectively shattered. Laansbanki and Icelands 3 major banks collapsed. This was not in fact due to anything to do with the financial crisis but instead due to a systemic failure that started with a housing project in Malaysia or the Philippines. There were so many strings tied to one development company that once it failed the entire section fell apart like dominoes. it started in early 2007 but by mid 2008 it was all over and Iceland was picking itself back up. All because of one major company defaulting which lead to a cascade of failures as everyone had lent money but nobody had money to pay it back. Shuffling loans down the line so to speak. Should this be sustained over the coming weeks/months we will start to see it first I think in the NE USA and the smaller OPEC nations that cannot compete at all. I wonder what will unravel when those threads start to come apart I don't recall anything in Iceland regarding a foreign housing project. Been a long time since I read up on it though. Basically the whole issue was Iceland tried to re-invent itself as a European banking capital and when a bunch of fishermen do that the end result kinda has to be pretty bad. The wave of bad debt in 07-08 swamped them and that was all she wrote. There is an excellent article on the whole situation that you might enjoy. It's written by Michael Lewis (The Big Short, Moneyball, The Blind Side) so it's endlessly entertaining. I highly recommend it. Might reread it myself. One of my favorite lines from that story ......... "You have to understand,” he told me, “Iceland is no longer a country . It is a hedge fund.” https://delong.typepad.com/lewis-2009-wall-street-on-the-tundra.pdf Regarding defaults. Lebanon just defaulted. But everyone kind of saw that coming and Lebanon is tiny. Edited March 10, 2020 by nuckin_futz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 10, 2020 Author Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Boudrias said: Using your time frame one could ask where world economies will be by then? How many countries will default and compound the crisis? To me it isn’t just the virus or oil flooding the world. It is all about world governance being able to handle a debt challenge that makes 2008 look like child’s play. People misplace confidence in the ‘system’ to pull out from collapse. Personal to corporate to government. Our system is so leveraged any failure to met a commitment could trigger a run on the bank, so to speak. I think of Argentina’s last default and how that shook the world. World Bank means nothing. The USA had to step in. The USA might not be there this time. Bourdria, stop fighting and just sit back and enjoy as they reinflate the bubble to even more glorious levels. Soon enough the virus will disipate and interest rates will be near zero everywhere and the cheap money will flow like wine. Oh yeah, no one is allowed to go bankrupt either........... Bailout nation takes flight Tue 10 Mar 2020 17:58:48 GMT The White House is already talking about bailing out oil companies The Washington Post reports that White House officials are alarmed at the prospect of deeply-indebted shale companies going out of business. They are considering a bailout that includes low-interest government loans with lines of credit to major financial institutions. I joked about this early today and it's already happening. Banks and oil companies are already getting a bailout. The grand total on this is going to be insane. Take the over: The US was running a $1 trillion deficit before the virus hit and earlier today Trump was already talking about bailing out the cruise ship industry. The record deficit in the financial crisis was $1.413 trillion. The cost of the payroll tax holiday that's being floated is $300 billion. ********************* Why would you bailout the cruise ship industry? Airlines I can see. That's an essential service but cruise lines? GTFO Here's another good headline .......... "Trump tells GOP he wants the payroll tax waived through the election" <-------------- hahahahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kragar Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Why would you bailout the cruise ship industry? Airlines I can see. That's an essential service but cruise lines? GTFO Especially when they are not US-flagged ships. I like cruises, but they don't need/deserve the help as near as I can see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedestroyerofworlds Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Bourdria, stop fighting and just sit back and enjoy as they reinflate the bubble to even more glorious levels. Soon enough the virus will disipate and interest rates will be near zero everywhere and the cheap money will flow like wine. Oh yeah, no one is allowed to go bankrupt either........... Bailout nation takes flight Tue 10 Mar 2020 17:58:48 GMT The White House is already talking about bailing out oil companies The Washington Post reports that White House officials are alarmed at the prospect of deeply-indebted shale companies going out of business. They are considering a bailout that includes low-interest government loans with lines of credit to major financial institutions. I joked about this early today and it's already happening. Banks and oil companies are already getting a bailout. The grand total on this is going to be insane. Take the over: The US was running a $1 trillion deficit before the virus hit and earlier today Trump was already talking about bailing out the cruise ship industry. The record deficit in the financial crisis was $1.413 trillion. The cost of the payroll tax holiday that's being floated is $300 billion. ********************* Why would you bailout the cruise ship industry? Airlines I can see. That's an essential service but cruise lines? GTFO Here's another good headline .......... "Trump tells GOP he wants the payroll tax waived through the election" <-------------- hahahahahah I wonder how many conservatives will be silent when TRUMP posts a deficit over $1.4 trillion, or will be screaming when JT posts a deficit close to Harper's record $55 billion, a deficit that they give a pass on cause he be fighting the 08 crash. I would love to see how much those voodoo tax cuts have made us better. All I see is billions and billions and billions of added debt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kragar Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, thedestroyerofworlds said: I wonder how many conservatives will be silent when TRUMP posts a deficit over $1.4 trillion, or will be screaming when JT posts a deficit close to Harper's record $55 billion, a deficit that they give a pass on cause he be fighting the 08 crash. I would love to see how much those voodoo tax cuts have made us better. All I see is billions and billions and billions of added debt. Conservatives are already concerned about spending. The big things to look for with regards to the benefits side of the tax plan are: 1. job and wage growth, and 2. repatriated money. Since Trump is not much of a fiscal conservative, I'm not surprised about debt levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boudrias Posted March 10, 2020 Share Posted March 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Warhippy said: Actually, this is interesting. A history moment for you Prior to the true meltdown of 2008, there was a smaller lesser known one. Iceland's economy effectively shattered. Laansbanki and Icelands 3 major banks collapsed. This was not in fact due to anything to do with the financial crisis but instead due to a systemic failure that started with a housing project in Malaysia or the Philippines. There were so many strings tied to one development company that once it failed the entire section fell apart like dominoes. it started in early 2007 but by mid 2008 it was all over and Iceland was picking itself back up. All because of one major company defaulting which lead to a cascade of failures as everyone had lent money but nobody had money to pay it back. Shuffling loans down the line so to speak. Should this be sustained over the coming weeks/months we will start to see it first I think in the NE USA and the smaller OPEC nations that cannot compete at all. I wonder what will unravel when those threads start to come apart My memory of that crisis is vague. I know that the banks were doing some financial deals with questionable ethics. Somehow they were using Denmark and left them holding some debt. Kinda unique as 300,000 people isolated and actually fairly self sufficient. When the secret bank accounts were expos3d it turned out that their PM had an account there. So so much of our economy is tied to real estate. Construction and finance. Employs a lot of people. If this falters the compounding downturn could be huge. Individuals cannot leverage their debt more than by taking out a mortgage. I invest in MIC’s with a usual spread of 55 to 100 debt to market. I’m getting nervous. If it unravels it will likely be quick. When governments step in to provide stability their credit will come under scrutiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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