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DownUndaCanuck

[Discussion] Can we fit them all in without a trade?

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So obviously there's going to be a lot of uncertainty about the next cap hit with this coronavirus break and the NHL is likely to lose millions of dollars which will probably reflect in a shrinkage in cap. This will hurt teams up against the cap and there may be some leeway or special rules that come into play for teams that are suddenly rediculously over the cap (eg. Toronto) with lots of long-term high salary contracts.

 

In terms of the Canucks though, Toffoli has been a monster since coming over and of course it'd be lovely to try and squeeze him in next year, but for a lot of players looking to sign new contracts, the drop in cap will make for a lot of uncertainty. Up until the break, it looked like he'd command 5-6M easily in the current climate, but now with the cap dropping, the first few signings will really set the tone for the rest of the signings. He's a consistent big strong 30 goal scorer and therefore will likely deserve 6M, but with the cap dropping we might be able to argue him down to 4-5M depending on how far it drops. I think agents are going to really try to deal in terms of % of cap rather than absolute numbers.

 

If the cap somehow stays around where it is now (around 83M) and we can bargain our players down a bit, here's what we might be able to do:

 

Markstrom medium-to-long term at 4.5M (probably deserves 5-6M previously)

Leivo at 1.5M (was previously on 1.5M, hasn't played very much, doesn't really deserve a raise)

Toffoli at 5M (was at 4.6M, deserves 6M)

Virtanen at 2.5M (was at 1.5M, deserves 3M)

Motte at 1M (was at 900K, deserves 1.5M in my opinion)

Gaudette at 1.5M (was at ELC, deserves around 1.5-2M)

MacEwan at 900K (was at ELC and deserves around 1M)

Tanev at 4M (was at 4.4M but getting older, deserves around 4M)

Stecher at 2M (was at 2.3M)

Fantenburg at 1M (was at 800K, deserves some sort of raise)

 

Including our current players (excluding Ferland on LTIR) that takes us to 77.4M

Add on Luongo and Spooner's and Baertschi's caps and that's 83.4M

 

There might be some wiggling needed, but I think JB can fit Toffoli and most of the key players back into the fold. If it's a matter of a million here or there he could let Stecher walk and replace him with one of the many young cheap AHL defencemen.

 

The big question mark is what the cap will be, if it's 80M we're in big trouble but then so will a lot of teams...

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2 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

So obviously there's going to be a lot of uncertainty about the next cap hit with this coronavirus break and the NHL is likely to lose millions of dollars which will probably reflect in a shrinkage in cap. This will hurt teams up against the cap and there may be some leeway or special rules that come into play for teams that are suddenly rediculously over the cap (eg. Toronto) with lots of long-term high salary contracts.

 

In terms of the Canucks though, Toffoli has been a monster since coming over and of course it'd be lovely to try and squeeze him in next year, but for a lot of players looking to sign new contracts, the drop in cap will make for a lot of uncertainty. Up until the break, it looked like he'd command 5-6M easily in the current climate, but now with the cap dropping, the first few signings will really set the tone for the rest of the signings. He's a consistent big strong 30 goal scorer and therefore will likely deserve 6M, but with the cap dropping we might be able to argue him down to 4-5M depending on how far it drops. I think agents are going to really try to deal in terms of % of cap rather than absolute numbers.

 

If the cap somehow stays around where it is now (around 83M) and we can bargain our players down a bit, here's what we might be able to do:

 

Markstrom medium-to-long term at 4.5M (probably deserves 5-6M previously)

Leivo at 1.5M (was previously on 1.5M, hasn't played very much, doesn't really deserve a raise)

Toffoli at 5M (was at 4.6M, deserves 6M)

Virtanen at 2.5M (was at 1.5M, deserves 3M)

Motte at 1M (was at 900K, deserves 1.5M in my opinion)

Gaudette at 1.5M (was at ELC, deserves around 1.5-2M)

MacEwan at 900K (was at ELC and deserves around 1M)

Tanev at 4M (was at 4.4M but getting older, deserves around 4M)

Stecher at 2M (was at 2.3M)

Fantenburg at 1M (was at 800K, deserves some sort of raise)

 

Including our current players (excluding Ferland on LTIR) that takes us to 77.4M

Add on Luongo and Spooner's and Baertschi's caps and that's 83.4M

 

There might be some wiggling needed, but I think JB can fit Toffoli and most of the key players back into the fold. If it's a matter of a million here or there he could let Stecher walk and replace him with one of the many young cheap AHL defencemen.

 

The big question mark is what the cap will be, if it's 80M we're in big trouble but then so will a lot of teams...

Doubt the cap is going up .... 

 

And that we keep the exact team together even if we treat TT as a rental.  The hard part is going to be should we cap dump and further deplete our prospect pool /future picks ... we also have QH and EP coming up and need to save for them....or just take our medicine and let this roster shed its vets ...?    Tough call.  I doubt TT takes less then 5, same with Markstrom..but you never know..

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If the cap went up to 88 million maybe but I doubt it is. 
 

We’ve got to try to get rid of some of these useless guys anyway Benn, Sutter, Baer Eriksson. 

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2 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

 

Markstrom medium-to-long term at 4.5M (probably deserves 5-6M previously)

Leivo at 1.5M (was previously on 1.5M, hasn't played very much, doesn't really deserve a raise)

Toffoli at 5M (was at 4.6M, deserves 6M)

Virtanen at 2.5M (was at 1.5M, deserves 3M)

Motte at 1M (was at 900K, deserves 1.5M in my opinion)

Gaudette at 1.5M (was at ELC, deserves around 1.5-2M)

MacEwan at 900K (was at ELC and deserves around 1M)

Tanev at 4M (was at 4.4M but getting older, deserves around 4M)

Stecher at 2M (was at 2.3M)

Fantenburg at 1M (was at 800K, deserves some sort of raise)

 

One, or maybe 2 guys I can see taking a "coronavirus' deal (yes, I'm creating that term and calling it that) as you indicate above, but if you're suggesting over a third of the team do that I'm not seeing that as realistic since other teams without cap issues will simply offer better non-coronavirus deals.  

 

This will, as you point out, be a very interesting spring/summer for the NHL though.

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2 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

If the cap somehow stays around where it is now (around 83M) and we can bargain our players down a bit, here's what we might be able to do:

 

Markstrom medium-to-long term at 4.5M (probably deserves 5-6M previously)

Leivo at 1.5M (was previously on 1.5M, hasn't played very much, doesn't really deserve a raise)

Toffoli at 5M (was at 4.6M, deserves 6M)

Virtanen at 2.5M (was at 1.5M, deserves 3M)

Motte at 1M (was at 900K, deserves 1.5M in my opinion)

Gaudette at 1.5M (was at ELC, deserves around 1.5-2M)

MacEwan at 900K (was at ELC and deserves around 1M)

Tanev at 4M (was at 4.4M but getting older, deserves around 4M)

Stecher at 2M (was at 2.3M)

Fantenburg at 1M (was at 800K, deserves some sort of raise)

 

Including our current players (excluding Ferland on LTIR) that takes us to 77.4M

Add on Luongo and Spooner's and Baertschi's caps and that's 83.4M

 

There might be some wiggling needed, but I think JB can fit Toffoli and most of the key players back into the fold. If it's a matter of a million here or there he could let Stecher walk and replace him with one of the many young cheap AHL defencemen.

 

The big question mark is what the cap will be, if it's 80M we're in big trouble but then so will a lot of teams...

One of Stetcher or Tanev won't be here next year. I've got a feeling that will be Stetch. I seriously doubt Fantenberg will be also. Given that, we get 3M from your figures. I'd say 1M goes to Toffoli, .5M goes to Markie. I also think Leivo goes down about .25M, which can go to MacEwen.

I'm just hoping that Eriksson contract is able to be resolved after he gets his big bonus this summer. Waive him to Utica and hope that he says no, to void the contract entirely. There's a need after next year, and a big one, for cap room to sign both Petey and Hughes. We have depth, yes, but none in the upper skill range

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Our defence is a mess, even though Tanev isn't a part of the problem. It's a simple matter of unless bodies get moved tough decisions will have to be made.

- Virtanen, Motte, Gaudette, and MacEwen will probably be re-signed.

 

- Stecher is a great guy, and I'd hate to see him go, but it will be a realistic matter of the team needs cap space. 

- Unless a trade to get rid of Eriksson, or Sutter can get done. I'd say thanks Tanev, we'd really like you back but we don't have room.

 

The team will have to make do with:

- Tram (if he returns)

- Woo

- Rafferty

- Or Juolevi

 

I know that's an awful risk on the backend. But there will be an improvement on speed. and in Tram's case massive upgrade on size. 

- Pope, Goldy, and Leivo will also be victims of the numbers game. 

 

It would probably work with re-signing Toffoli and Markstrom, provided the cap doesn't fall below $80 million. 

We'd have an inexperienced defensive corps. But it would be younger. 

 

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Honestly, this COVID-19 will influence the Canuck budget for a few years. IMO, the bonuses paid past and future are based on full revenue for the year, so I think the Canucks are already behind the 8 ball. To further exacerbate the problem, I think that revenues will be down next year as fans try to recover from the economic hardships that this virus has caused...…..

 

So, I think the Cap ceiling, may even go down. This will cause an ugly reaction throughout the NHL and will force the NHL to permit 2 compulsory buyout, that may or may not be used, depending on the health(wealth) of the franchise. 

 

If there is no compulsory buyouts created, and the Cap is flat or is reduced, the Canucks will offering reduced contracts, in comparison to the players actual value, this will cause the players to actually take less or walk away, and go to free agency, if they are UFA's.

 

I think it may be a very cut-throat summer, and if that Cap does not move or is reduced, teams with excessive Cap demands will pay dearly with assets.

 

Personally, depending on the impact of the Corona Virus, you could see Demko and Tryamkin signed, and Tanev and Markstrom let go, just based on economics. To may this might be the best thing long term, as Demko and Tryamkin probably have a total cap hit of around 5.5 Million, where as Tanev and Markstrom have a Cap hit of approx. 11 to 12 million.

 

So when you look at the big 3...….is Demko, Tryamkin, Toffoli, a better add than just keeping Tanev and Markstrom………...personally, I think there is too much risk with Tanev and Markstrom, and overall does not gives us a longterm advantage......

 

But other than this, I think the poster is pretty close with the others.

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Posted (edited)

Just finished reading Ghosts post, just above me, and I agree to some extent, my post is meant to be in somewhat the same vain. I do, however think that many teams will be facing the same type of reality, so there may be other opportunities, that would not normally be presented.

 

It will be interesting...……..

 

 

Edited by janisahockeynut

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

Just finished reading Ghosts post, just above me, and I agree to some extent, my post is meant to be in somewhat the same vain. I do, however think that many teams will be facing the same type of reality, so there may be other opportunities, that would not normally be presented.

 

It will be interesting...……..

 

 

I'm thinking the league might need to allow 1-2 buyouts per team. GM's choice of 2 to start or one in the offseason, one offseason next year. 

The players would need to be paid still, it just won't effect the cap. 

Brisebois and Graovac to two way deals. Let Fanta go as well. 

Edited by Ghostsof1915

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23 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

I'm thinking the league might need to allow 1-2 buyouts per team. GM's choice of 2 to start or one in the offseason, one offseason next year. 

The players would need to be paid still, it just won't effect the cap. 

Brisebois and Graovac to two way deals. Let Fanta go as well. 

I could be wrong. But I’m almost sure that compliance buyouts have to be negotiated as part of the CBA.  Without reopening the CBA I don’t think k they can just randomly allow them 

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1 hour ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Our defence is a mess, even though Tanev isn't a part of the problem. It's a simple matter of unless bodies get moved tough decisions will have to be made.

- Virtanen, Motte, Gaudette, and MacEwen will probably be re-signed.

 

- Stecher is a great guy, and I'd hate to see him go, but it will be a realistic matter of the team needs cap space. 

- Unless a trade to get rid of Eriksson, or Sutter can get done. I'd say thanks Tanev, we'd really like you back but we don't have room.

 

The team will have to make do with:

- Tram (if he returns)

- Woo

- Rafferty

- Or Juolevi

 

I know that's an awful risk on the backend. But there will be an improvement on speed. and in Tram's case massive upgrade on size. 

- Pope, Goldy, and Leivo will also be victims of the numbers game. 

 

It would probably work with re-signing Toffoli and Markstrom, provided the cap doesn't fall below $80 million. 

We'd have an inexperienced defensive corps. But it would be younger. 

 

I agree that's the obvious place to cut some cap, lose Tanev and Stecher and we save 6M easily which we can throw to Toffoli and Markstrom.

 

The other option is just let Toffoli walk but in all honesty, Toff is 27, in his prime, has 3-4 good 20-40 goal scoring years and fills out our top-6 beautifully, so it's very tempting to give him what he wants and keep him, especially consider we burned Madden on him.

 

On the flip side, letting Tanev and Stecher walk opens up a massive hole on our blueline. Edler's getting older and won't be as good, Myers will be the same, Hughes will be better, Fantenberg will still be a decent bottom-pairing defenceman but then we've got 2 AHLers in our top-6. One or two injuries and we're right back where we started (like last season).

 

I'd be more tempted to keep Tanev (try and get him for 4M, or the same as what he's on now) and let Stecher walk and be replaced by Tryamkin/Rafferty/Juolevi, because he stabilizes the defence far more. Then up front let Leivo walk (replaced by Toffoli really) and give Toff the cap we had for Leivo which is a decent 1.5M.

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1 hour ago, janisahockeynut said:

Honestly, this COVID-19 will influence the Canuck budget for a few years. IMO, the bonuses paid past and future are based on full revenue for the year, so I think the Canucks are already behind the 8 ball. To further exacerbate the problem, I think that revenues will be down next year as fans try to recover from the economic hardships that this virus has caused...…..

 

So, I think the Cap ceiling, may even go down. This will cause an ugly reaction throughout the NHL and will force the NHL to permit 2 compulsory buyout, that may or may not be used, depending on the health(wealth) of the franchise. 

 

If there is no compulsory buyouts created, and the Cap is flat or is reduced, the Canucks will offering reduced contracts, in comparison to the players actual value, this will cause the players to actually take less or walk away, and go to free agency, if they are UFA's.

 

I think it may be a very cut-throat summer, and if that Cap does not move or is reduced, teams with excessive Cap demands will pay dearly with assets.

 

Personally, depending on the impact of the Corona Virus, you could see Demko and Tryamkin signed, and Tanev and Markstrom let go, just based on economics. To may this might be the best thing long term, as Demko and Tryamkin probably have a total cap hit of around 5.5 Million, where as Tanev and Markstrom have a Cap hit of approx. 11 to 12 million.

 

So when you look at the big 3...….is Demko, Tryamkin, Toffoli, a better add than just keeping Tanev and Markstrom………...personally, I think there is too much risk with Tanev and Markstrom, and overall does not gives us a longterm advantage......

 

But other than this, I think the poster is pretty close with the others.

Would be a big gutsy move by JB to let our veterans Tanev and Markstrom go and hinge our hopes on the youth. 

 

Demko is showing signs of brilliance at times but he's clearly not NHL-starter ready just yet. We'd really need to sign a bonified backup for him. I think we could get away with a 40-40 split with Demko and another goalie, but we lose a LOT of quality with Markstrom. Personally I don't see JB doing this, especially after what Marky's done for this team this season, but it does open up a lot of space for the future.


Going with Tryamkin over Tanev again is a huge gamble of basically choosing the unknown over the safe, stable choice. I do wonder how much Tryamkin would ask for, probably in the realm of 2-4M, which he probably deserves, but we have no idea how he's going to perform. In his brief time with the Canucks he was an absolute unit, smooth skater, contributed points and a beast physically, but he wasn't the best PKer positionally and got caught out on odd-man rushes sometimes. He's a much riskier player than Tanev.

 

I don't think JB is ready to make a risky move like this since he's so slowly built a foundational team here, but desperate times call for desperate measures and he may well do it after this whole COVID-19 fiasco.


That being said, I think JB understands as well that you build a solid playoff team from the goalie out, not from forwards down. Sadly, I think that might mean letting Toffoli walk to keep Markstrom and Tanev, but I do hope there's another way and that we shed our secondary and tertiary players costing us 2-4M so we can keep a relatively expensive core together. 

 

Guys like Sutter, Roussel, Stecher and Benn are nice but they cost too much for what they bring. Usually they'd be great, but if the cap goes down we can't afford our bottom players to cost ups anymore than 1M really, which could easily be replaced by the top AHL guys.

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Posted (edited)

Did cap friendly crash for anyone else? :(

 

Nevermind it's back up. 

Edited by Ghostsof1915

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5 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

So obviously there's going to be a lot of uncertainty about the next cap hit with this coronavirus break and the NHL is likely to lose millions of dollars which will probably reflect in a shrinkage in cap. This will hurt teams up against the cap and there may be some leeway or special rules that come into play for teams that are suddenly rediculously over the cap (eg. Toronto) with lots of long-term high salary contracts.

 

In terms of the Canucks though, Toffoli has been a monster since coming over and of course it'd be lovely to try and squeeze him in next year, but for a lot of players looking to sign new contracts, the drop in cap will make for a lot of uncertainty. Up until the break, it looked like he'd command 5-6M easily in the current climate, but now with the cap dropping, the first few signings will really set the tone for the rest of the signings. He's a consistent big strong 30 goal scorer and therefore will likely deserve 6M, but with the cap dropping we might be able to argue him down to 4-5M depending on how far it drops. I think agents are going to really try to deal in terms of % of cap rather than absolute numbers.

 

If the cap somehow stays around where it is now (around 83M) and we can bargain our players down a bit, here's what we might be able to do:

 

Markstrom medium-to-long term at 4.5M (probably deserves 5-6M previously)

Leivo at 1.5M (was previously on 1.5M, hasn't played very much, doesn't really deserve a raise)

Toffoli at 5M (was at 4.6M, deserves 6M)

Virtanen at 2.5M (was at 1.5M, deserves 3M)

Motte at 1M (was at 900K, deserves 1.5M in my opinion)

Gaudette at 1.5M (was at ELC, deserves around 1.5-2M)

MacEwan at 900K (was at ELC and deserves around 1M)

Tanev at 4M (was at 4.4M but getting older, deserves around 4M)

Stecher at 2M (was at 2.3M)

Fantenburg at 1M (was at 800K, deserves some sort of raise)

 

Including our current players (excluding Ferland on LTIR) that takes us to 77.4M

Add on Luongo and Spooner's and Baertschi's caps and that's 83.4M

 

There might be some wiggling needed, but I think JB can fit Toffoli and most of the key players back into the fold. If it's a matter of a million here or there he could let Stecher walk and replace him with one of the many young cheap AHL defencemen.

 

The big question mark is what the cap will be, if it's 80M we're in big trouble but then so will a lot of teams...

This situation is such an extraordinary one that it will require unique concessions from both, the NHL and the NHPA.

I'm sure once they get back to playing hockey, the sides will have a resolution in place.

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clearly there will be a cap issue

 

it could be dealt with in a number of ways, i see 2 most likely possibilities

- allow teams a number of buyouts that don't cap against the cap, and cap does not increase, or maybe decrease

- keep cap number at present level or a bit higher but greatly increase the escrow take

 

allowing teams to buy out contracts let's them shed salary to get under the new modest cap.  nhlpa might not like this option much as it will impact average contract values.  those bought out would need to move on to other teams and sign for minimum contracts most likely.  this option is highly disruptive to team planning that had been underway pre virus.

 

maintaining current cap or slighting increasing it, but increasing the escrow a lot, might be the fairest as current contract values can then also absorb the change in market conditions.  it protects the face value of contracts and allows escrow to reduce as league revenues bounce back.  this option is less disruptive to team planning as pre coronavirus planning can still be implemented.

 

there may be other viable options, but none occurred to me so far

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Posted (edited)

The team will have to make some changes and trade a key winger to get a # 2 D man that is needed the most..

Tanev 30 - Very injury prone and is UFA that will want  4yrs x 4.6 million... Trade -- return 3rd rounder

Sign Taffoli 4 yrs x 5.5 million--- Solid 30 goal guy with great 200 foot game..Plays hard a real pro..

 

Now trade Boser to NJ Devils ---  Damon Severson 6'2, 25, solid 2 way D man and prospect..- would fit in  and fill Tanev spot..

Trade Stetcher -- He will deman 2.8 million x 4 yrs  trade 3r rounder  or prospect.... ---- Rafferty to fill this spot...

Markstrom 4 yrs x 5.7 million --- 8 team trade clause, will have to decide on Markstrom or Demko before May 2021.. Either guy will get a decent return......Dipietro ready for NHL backup 2021 season

 

Jake 23 , 6'1 power forward , gritty, sped, size, big improvement - 20-24 goal guy every team needs his style in playoffs -- 4 yrs x 3.3 million

Gaudette 23, bright future 3rd line centre 44-50 point guy.... 2 yrs x 1.9  million, show me more deal.....

Leivo --- Solid winger, gritty big 16-20 goal guy top 9 ---- 2 yrs x 1.9  show me more deal

MacEwen - 6'4, 215, power forward adds grit and speed -- One way deal 2 yrs x 900

Motte - Gritty 4th line winger PK specialist -- 2 yrs x 1 million

Fantenberg  -- 2 yrs x 1.1 million Depth guy can play # 5 D man for short term. Depth guy..

Trade 1 of these players, Sutter or Beagle don't need both..

Podkoizin 19, 6'1,  Hoglander  19, 5'10, speedy, gritty, Lind 21, 6'1, These guy are NHL ready by 2021 season

Edited by wildcam

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4 hours ago, coastal.view said:

clearly there will be a cap issue

 

it could be dealt with in a number of ways, i see 2 most likely possibilities

- allow teams a number of buyouts that don't cap against the cap, and cap does not increase, or maybe decrease

- keep cap number at present level or a bit higher but greatly increase the escrow take

 

allowing teams to buy out contracts let's them shed salary to get under the new modest cap.  nhlpa might not like this option much as it will impact average contract values.  those bought out would need to move on to other teams and sign for minimum contracts most likely.  this option is highly disruptive to team planning that had been underway pre virus.

 

maintaining current cap or slighting increasing it, but increasing the escrow a lot, might be the fairest as current contract values can then also absorb the change in market conditions.  it protects the face value of contracts and allows escrow to reduce as league revenues bounce back.  this option is less disruptive to team planning as pre coronavirus planning can still be implemented.

 

there may be other viable options, but none occurred to me so far

Hey Coastal

Isn't Escrow controlled by the players?

And Cap controlled by the Owners?

I mean, why would the players increase their escrow for an owner problem?

Meaning, the teams hard against the cap, did it to themselves,

so why would the players want to fix the owners problem?

Having the cap go up is an owner solution to an owner problem

But not all owners have the problem, so why would some owners agree to that?

IMO, and being serious for a minute...…..

Either a couple of early(1 years early) compulsory buyouts or let the teams that did it fix their own problems

Is where I honestly see it going....but I guess time will tell

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Marky, Tanev, and Tofu are gone.  They’ve all played their last games as Canucks.  We will sign all our RFAs except Stecher.  He’s gone too.  We are keeping the crappy older guys and their cap eating salaries instead.  

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9 hours ago, qwijibo said:

I could be wrong. But I’m almost sure that compliance buyouts have to be negotiated as part of the CBA.  Without reopening the CBA I don’t think k they can just randomly allow them 

there's a lot of self-interest on both sides to allow it tho, I could see them agreeing to something as a 1 time deal outside of the CBA

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