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DownUndaCanuck

[Discussion] Can we fit them all in without a trade?

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4 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

Hey Coastal

Isn't Escrow controlled by the players?

And Cap controlled by the Owners?

I mean, why would the players increase their escrow for an owner problem?

Meaning, the teams hard against the cap, did it to themselves,

so why would the players want to fix the owners problem?

Having the cap go up is an owner solution to an owner problem

But not all owners have the problem, so why would some owners agree to that?

IMO, and being serious for a minute...…..

Either a couple of early(1 years early) compulsory buyouts or let the teams that did it fix their own problems

Is where I honestly see it going....but I guess time will tell

well because the economic hit

should be borne by all the players if fairness is desired

and if players also want management to build a viable team

 

if cap goes down laffs will likley not be able to sign a full roster

yet marner, tavares, matthews get all their money ?

and make no concession for the virus issue?

they will be roundly hammered by their local fans

even more for being greedy dollar grabbing players

 

everyone has to make concessions

if no one does, teams will not function

this is more then just a management issue

escrow provides the best mechanism to create fairness to the salary structure

otherwise these high paid players will put some of their fellow players out of work completely

 

just wait an see how much economic suffering fans will undergo due to the virus

you think any will appreciate players being unwilling to take on a little suffering?

it will look incredibly bad on the players

 

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38 minutes ago, coastal.view said:

well because the economic hit

should be borne by all the players if fairness is desired

and if players also want management to build a viable team

 

if cap goes down laffs will likley not be able to sign a full roster

yet marner, tavares, matthews get all their money ?

and make no concession for the virus issue?

they will be roundly hammered by their local fans

even more for being greedy dollar grabbing players

 

everyone has to make concessions

if no one does, teams will not function

this is more then just a management issue

escrow provides the best mechanism to create fairness to the salary structure

otherwise these high paid players will put some of their fellow players out of work completely

 

just wait an see how much economic suffering fans will undergo due to the virus

you think any will appreciate players being unwilling to take on a little suffering?

it will look incredibly bad on the players

 

Good points

 

I have to read up on this Escrow a little more

 

Not sure I understand it enough

 

Man, it is going to be messy!...………..but not big in the real world where people are loosing loved ones...……...

 

Thanks for the response...…..make sense what you say, but like I say, I have to read up on it.

 

Not sure I am getting it all.

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A one-time allowance for a buyout would be JB (and most GM's) wet dream to be honest. Let's say for arguments sake that we get 2 buy-outs but the cap drops to 80M:

 

1) Virtanen 2.5M short-to-medium bridge contract

2) Motte 1M

3) Gaudette 1.5M bridge

4) MacEwan 900K

5) Tanev 4M or sign a UFA (there's loads out there, Brodie, Hamonic, Dillon etc. who will probably ask for much more than Tanev)

6) Fantenberg 1M

7) Markstrom 5.5M

8) Toffoli 5.5M (considering a lot of the other top-6 guys make around that and Toffoli fits that bill, realistically deserves 6M but will hopefully take a corona-cut)

 

Let Leivo, Domingue and Stecher walk (or trade his rights for a pick)

 

That takes us to 76M including penalties if we buyout Eriksson's 6M and lots of flexibility.

 

Realistically we could sign another top-4 UFA defenceman or keep Stecher if we really want, give a bit extra cash to Markstrom or Toffoli who really deserve it. 

If JB can somehow wrangle his way out of that Eriksson contract he'll be considered a God for many reasons, but mainly because it'll let us keep everyone together despite the dropping cap. 


Personally, depending on how low the cap goes, I'd re-sign Stecher for around 2M as our 5th defenceman (can play top-4 20 minutes in case of injury, not many bottom pairing guys can do that) and dish the leftovers out to Toffoli, Marky, Virtanen and even Motte and Gaudette.

 

Without the buyout we're obviously in the early 80's cap-wise and JB will have to think of some sort of cap-related trade.

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All this ASSUMING the cap drops.....

 

So the cap is based on league revenue for the season.  This is based on TV revenue (does this stay the same?) plus team revenue which is mostly ticket sales.  I don't know what else counts towards the cap.  But I have read that in the NHL, ticket sales are still the biggest revenue generator.  Regular season games played, if the season is over would be around a 16% reduction.  Playoff games, assuming an average of 6 games per series and 15 series totals only 90 games.   They are lucrative on a per game basis and pretty much gravy for the teams involved but league wide, when you consider there are 2,542 regular season games, it's not significant. 

 

Bottom line, revenue could be down by 8-10% easily.  How would a cap reduction to $73-75M look?  I think it would be a disaster for most teams and probably won't happen.

 

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12 hours ago, coastal.view said:

well because the economic hit

should be borne by all the players if fairness is desired

and if players also want management to build a viable team

 

if cap goes down laffs will likley not be able to sign a full roster

yet marner, tavares, matthews get all their money ?

and make no concession for the virus issue?

they will be roundly hammered by their local fans

even more for being greedy dollar grabbing players

 

everyone has to make concessions

if no one does, teams will not function

this is more then just a management issue

escrow provides the best mechanism to create fairness to the salary structure

otherwise these high paid players will put some of their fellow players out of work completely

 

just wait an see how much economic suffering fans will undergo due to the virus

you think any will appreciate players being unwilling to take on a little suffering?

it will look incredibly bad on the players

 

Ya, escrow is a mechanism to deal with the uncertainty of league revenue.  According to the CBA, players salaries are limited to 50% of league revenue.  Obviously players are paid before they know what revenue will be.  So the league holds back a certain amount of players pay until they have the true numbers and at that point (in theory at least) the players should be getting a cheque from escrow.  This doesn't happen because the league has the right to hold back money in the escrow account year over year in anticipation of future uncertainty.

 

This is exactly the sort of event that justifies the league keeping all the escrow money in reserve.  The players will be taking it on the chin to the tune of 50% of lost revenue.  Incidentally, I heard that the players will still be getting their last 3 paycheques for the year.

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On 3/14/2020 at 6:24 AM, DownUndaCanuck said:

So obviously there's going to be a lot of uncertainty about the next cap hit with this coronavirus break and the NHL is likely to lose millions of dollars which will probably reflect in a shrinkage in cap. This will hurt teams up against the cap and there may be some leeway or special rules that come into play for teams that are suddenly rediculously over the cap (eg. Toronto) with lots of long-term high salary contracts.

 

In terms of the Canucks though, Toffoli has been a monster since coming over and of course it'd be lovely to try and squeeze him in next year, but for a lot of players looking to sign new contracts, the drop in cap will make for a lot of uncertainty. Up until the break, it looked like he'd command 5-6M easily in the current climate, but now with the cap dropping, the first few signings will really set the tone for the rest of the signings. He's a consistent big strong 30 goal scorer and therefore will likely deserve 6M, but with the cap dropping we might be able to argue him down to 4-5M depending on how far it drops. I think agents are going to really try to deal in terms of % of cap rather than absolute numbers.

 

If the cap somehow stays around where it is now (around 83M) and we can bargain our players down a bit, here's what we might be able to do:

 

Markstrom medium-to-long term at 4.5M (probably deserves 5-6M previously)

Leivo at 1.5M (was previously on 1.5M, hasn't played very much, doesn't really deserve a raise)

Toffoli at 5M (was at 4.6M, deserves 6M)

Virtanen at 2.5M (was at 1.5M, deserves 3M)

Motte at 1M (was at 900K, deserves 1.5M in my opinion)

Gaudette at 1.5M (was at ELC, deserves around 1.5-2M)

MacEwan at 900K (was at ELC and deserves around 1M)

Tanev at 4M (was at 4.4M but getting older, deserves around 4M)

Stecher at 2M (was at 2.3M)

Fantenburg at 1M (was at 800K, deserves some sort of raise)

 

Including our current players (excluding Ferland on LTIR) that takes us to 77.4M

Add on Luongo and Spooner's and Baertschi's caps and that's 83.4M

 

There might be some wiggling needed, but I think JB can fit Toffoli and most of the key players back into the fold. If it's a matter of a million here or there he could let Stecher walk and replace him with one of the many young cheap AHL defencemen.

 

The big question mark is what the cap will be, if it's 80M we're in big trouble but then so will a lot of teams...

Sorry to nit pick, but there are some things that need to be corrected.

 

I am a big fan of the Toffoli acquisition, anyone can check my posts.

 

TT has scored 30 or more goals once.

I also looked to see if that was a GPG % over 82 games, it is not.

 

Last 5 seasons:

 

19/20 24 goals 16 assists over 68gp. Maybe he would have gotten another 6 goals in the remaining 14 games? 50/50.

 

18/19 18 goals 16A over 58gp

 

17/18 13 goals 21A over 82gp

 

16/17 16 goals 18a over 63gp

 

15/16 31 goals 27a over 82g

 

He's a solid high end 2nd line winger and legit threat in on PP2.

 

And such should be paid as a 2nd liner of the higher end, like Bo Horvat.

 

Bo is also younger, better, more important to the team, captain, etc

 

Toffoli should max out at 5 m.

 

Marky will be getting paid closer to 6 per year.

 

Tanev @ 5 m max

 

Leivo won't be back, no money for him

 

Fantenberg will be getting a big raise via ufa and should be let to walk.

 

Motte basically gets leivo salary from last year.

 

Re-Signing Gaudette, Virtanen and Macewan and the other forwards under contract give the Canucks a solid forward core.

 

Stecher as an RFA iirc qualifying offer has to be more then 2.3 he made this season?

 

I like stech and all he brings( Hustle, Heart, Character, Local kid).....we have Quinn...but he's not affordable like Hutton was.

 

If Ferland is unfit to play due to injuries, his contract is covered by insurance i.e. robidas island. He gets his money, medical treatment but never plays hockey professionally again.

 

The canucks only pay insurance and that's not against the cap?

 

Hopefully ferkie recovers %100 for the start of next season.

 

 

What must happen especially because of the Luongo bs is that Eriksson, Baertschi, Stecher, Leivo and Sutter must be moved out.

 

Miller Pettersson Boeser 

Pearson Horvat Toffoli 5

Ferland Gaudette Virtanen 

Roussell Beagle Macewan 

Motte

 

Hughes Myers 

Edler Tanev 

Tryamkin Rafferty 

Juolevi Benn

 

Marky 6

Thatcher 1872184880_Screenshot_20200315-183939_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.e2938b76d0111ff8ba0e4f7e8f44ebfa.jpg

 

When Petey, Hughes, Thatcher, OJ and Rafferty need new deals there will be 26m in cap space and thats with no cap increase the next few years, plus ELC players coming in during that time.

 

The Salary cap will not decrease :blink:

Screenshot_20200315-183950_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200315-184316_Samsung Internet.jpg

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5 hours ago, GhostsOf1994 said:

Sorry to nit pick, but there are some things that need to be corrected.

 

I am a big fan of the Toffoli acquisition, anyone can check my posts.

 

TT has scored 30 or more goals once.

I also looked to see if that was a GPG % over 82 games, it is not.

 

Last 5 seasons:

 

19/20 24 goals 16 assists over 68gp. Maybe he would have gotten another 6 goals in the remaining 14 games? 50/50.

 

18/19 18 goals 16A over 58gp

 

17/18 13 goals 21A over 82gp

 

16/17 16 goals 18a over 63gp

 

15/16 31 goals 27a over 82g

 

He's a solid high end 2nd line winger and legit threat in on PP2.

 

And such should be paid as a 2nd liner of the higher end, like Bo Horvat.

 

Bo is also younger, better, more important to the team, captain, etc

 

Toffoli should max out at 5 m.

 

Marky will be getting paid closer to 6 per year.

 

Tanev @ 5 m max

 

Leivo won't be back, no money for him

 

Fantenberg will be getting a big raise via ufa and should be let to walk.

 

Motte basically gets leivo salary from last year.

 

Re-Signing Gaudette, Virtanen and Macewan and the other forwards under contract give the Canucks a solid forward core.

 

Stecher as an RFA iirc qualifying offer has to be more then 2.3 he made this season?

 

I like stech and all he brings( Hustle, Heart, Character, Local kid).....we have Quinn...but he's not affordable like Hutton was.

 

If Ferland is unfit to play due to injuries, his contract is covered by insurance i.e. robidas island. He gets his money, medical treatment but never plays hockey professionally again.

 

The canucks only pay insurance and that's not against the cap?

 

Hopefully ferkie recovers %100 for the start of next season.

 

 

What must happen especially because of the Luongo bs is that Eriksson, Baertschi, Stecher, Leivo and Sutter must be moved out.

 

Miller Pettersson Boeser 

Pearson Horvat Toffoli 5

Ferland Gaudette Virtanen 

Roussell Beagle Macewan 

Motte

 

Hughes Myers 

Edler Tanev 

Tryamkin Rafferty 

Juolevi Benn

 

Marky 6

Thatcher 1872184880_Screenshot_20200315-183939_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.e2938b76d0111ff8ba0e4f7e8f44ebfa.jpg

 

When Petey, Hughes, Thatcher, OJ and Rafferty need new deals there will be 26m in cap space and thats with no cap increase the next few years, plus ELC players coming in during that time.

 

The Salary cap will not decrease :blink:

Screenshot_20200315-183950_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20200315-184316_Samsung Internet.jpg

I agree with most of this but sadly don't think Ferland will be playing hockey anymore and am a little scared about Juolevi starting in our top-6. He really should be by now but I don't know if he's our best AHL defenceman. Maybe Rafferty gets the nod, maybe Chatfield or Brisebois, but surely one of those guys can play 15 mins a night to save us some cap.

 

Up front I doubt JB can move all of those contracts realistically but of course it would be nice.

 

If Ferland comes back I say Roussel at 3M is expendable but I don't think he will so let's hang on to Roussel. I just can't imagine JB trading Sutter after all this "foundational player" stuff, as much as I know most fans want his cap gone. I think your forward lines are bang on, just that JB wil likely keep Sutter.

 

Baertschi has to be the obvious dump to a struggling team for a late pick or considerations, he still has some NHL hockey left in him so hopefully that's an easy 2M cleared.

 

On D sadly I think you're right in that Stecher is going to have to be traded or let go, we can't afford 2.5M+ on our bottom pairing at the moment. Tryamkin is a wildcard, if he doesn't sign then I think we should either keep Stecher cheap or sign one of the many UFAs out there (my pick would be Edmunson) but Stecher would certainly be the cheaper option. I doubt Tanev gets much of a raise to be honest, he's getting older and is still clearly injury prone so hopefully he resigns at around the same 4.25M amount.

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On 3/14/2020 at 10:43 AM, DownUndaCanuck said:

Toff is 27, in his prime, has 3-4 good 20-40 goal scoring years

Toffoli scored 31 goals once in his career and then no better than 24 in 82 and then 23 in 76 games.

Decent player, but not a franchise, key, or foundational player.

Not worth a raise imo.

 

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If we retain Toffoli what reason do we have to retain Leivo? The right side would be Boeser, Toffoli, Jake and hopefully MacEwen. Also Sutter or Gaudette can/likely will play RW next season. I say give Marky 6mil. He's earned it. Toffoli at 5.5mil. Let Leivo walk. It shouldn't be hard to find a home for Sutter. One year left on his deal, solid vet presence. Someone will take him, even if we have to retain 500k-1mil it'll help. Lind is gonna need to start getting looks in the NHL as well, makes Leivo/Sutter even more expendable.

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14 hours ago, N7Nucks said:

If we retain Toffoli what reason do we have to retain Leivo? The right side would be Boeser, Toffoli, Jake and hopefully MacEwen. Also Sutter or Gaudette can/likely will play RW next season. I say give Marky 6mil. He's earned it. Toffoli at 5.5mil. Let Leivo walk. It shouldn't be hard to find a home for Sutter. One year left on his deal, solid vet presence. Someone will take him, even if we have to retain 500k-1mil it'll help. Lind is gonna need to start getting looks in the NHL as well, makes Leivo/Sutter even more expendable.

Agreed, Leivo was a nice stop-gap but now that we've finally got some decent wingers for Bo, he becomes expendable. We could keep him for a decent 3rd line but we've got plenty of young forwards who we should move up to that spot.

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On 3/16/2020 at 1:19 PM, N7Nucks said:

If we retain Toffoli what reason do we have to retain Leivo? The right side would be Boeser, Toffoli, Jake and hopefully MacEwen. Also Sutter or Gaudette can/likely will play RW next season. I say give Marky 6mil. He's earned it. Toffoli at 5.5mil. Let Leivo walk. It shouldn't be hard to find a home for Sutter. One year left on his deal, solid vet presence. Someone will take him, even if we have to retain 500k-1mil it'll help. Lind is gonna need to start getting looks in the NHL as well, makes Leivo/Sutter even more expendable.

We don't have a reason to keep Leivo regardless of Tofoli.

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Posted (edited)

All our players aren’t going to take huge discounts like this is suggesting.  Ferland is planning on returning, so you can’t spend his salary on other players.

 

The cap certainly isn’t going up.

 

We also have pushed ELC bonuses that have to be factored in and reducing what we have to spend next season.

 

All those add up to many millions Not accounted for in the OP.

 

Our only hope is to get a compliance buyout or two and have the cap not go down.

 

This also may have long term implications as the economy may not have rebounded by the time we are negotiating a new TV deal... and it may not be as rich as some having been hoping.

 

Ideal state is compliance buy out Eriksson and Ferland.  Trade some players like Virtanen/Demko for a top 4 RD.  MacEwan can become a full time roster player.  Sutter should be able to be moved.

 

Miller-Petterson-Boeser (5.25+1+5.88)

Pearson-Horvat-Toffoli (3.75+5.5+5.5)

Roussel-Gaudette-MacEwan (3+1.5+1

Motte-Beagle-Leivo (1.25+3+2)

XXXX (1)

$39.6 million for forwards

 

Hughes-Tanev (1+5)

Edler-XXX (6+5)
Tryamkin-Myers (2+6)

Benn (2)

 

$27 on defence 


Markstrom (5.5)

XXX (1)

 

$6.5 in goal

 

= $73.1

 

+ 2.3 Baertschi 

+ 1 Spooner

+ 3 Luongo

+ 1.7 pushed ELCs from 2019/20

 

=$81.1 million cap hit 

 

Top scoring line; 2nd line for defensive matchups that can also score; 3rd energy line that can chip in; 4th line pure defensive line.

Edited by Provost
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Posted (edited)

 

 

I like our 2 top lines

I am hesitant to move Virtanen and Demko and would like to see Tryamkin up with Edler or even with Hughes, depending

I also want to see some elevation of the farm and would expect Rafferty in there...……..seems like a big bloody mess with Myers there

But it is what it is.....Brisebois will challenge Juolevi

Not a fan of Benn either...….but I get it......

 

There are some decisions to be made, that is for sure!

Edited by janisahockeynut

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The way I see it...….we spent too much on bottom end guys, not named Beagle

 

Eriksson 6.0

Myers 6.0

Sutter 4.375

Roussel 3.00

Baertschi 3.366

Benn 2.00

 

I get what Benning was doing, and why,  but he really over-reached...………approx. .22.750 million

 

Eriksson and Myers -compliance buyouts...…..god I hope!

Sutter...………….trade

Roussel...……….trade

Baertschi...……...trade for 50%....costs us 1.683       instead of      Utica at 2.291 million     or      buyout of  1st yr 1.766 million + 2nd yr 800,000

Benn...…………..Utica...….930,000

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i doubt they buy out myers this year.  i look at comparable money as,

eriksson...markstrom

tanev... tryamkin

baertschi, stecher...toffoli

benn...fantenberg and rafferty. 

the year after i see,

edler...hughes

sutter, pearson... pettersson

by then ferland’s fate should be clear. 

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On 3/14/2020 at 6:24 AM, DownUndaCanuck said:

So obviously there's going to be a lot of uncertainty about the next cap hit with this coronavirus break and the NHL is likely to lose millions of dollars which will probably reflect in a shrinkage in cap. This will hurt teams up against the cap and there may be some leeway or special rules that come into play for teams that are suddenly rediculously over the cap (eg. Toronto) with lots of long-term high salary contracts.

 

In terms of the Canucks though, Toffoli has been a monster since coming over and of course it'd be lovely to try and squeeze him in next year, but for a lot of players looking to sign new contracts, the drop in cap will make for a lot of uncertainty. Up until the break, it looked like he'd command 5-6M easily in the current climate, but now with the cap dropping, the first few signings will really set the tone for the rest of the signings. He's a consistent big strong 30 goal scorer and therefore will likely deserve 6M, but with the cap dropping we might be able to argue him down to 4-5M depending on how far it drops. I think agents are going to really try to deal in terms of % of cap rather than absolute numbers.

 

If the cap somehow stays around where it is now (around 83M) and we can bargain our players down a bit, here's what we might be able to do:

 

Markstrom medium-to-long term at 4.5M (probably deserves 5-6M previously)

Leivo at 1.5M (was previously on 1.5M, hasn't played very much, doesn't really deserve a raise)

Toffoli at 5M (was at 4.6M, deserves 6M)

Virtanen at 2.5M (was at 1.5M, deserves 3M)

Motte at 1M (was at 900K, deserves 1.5M in my opinion)

Gaudette at 1.5M (was at ELC, deserves around 1.5-2M)

MacEwan at 900K (was at ELC and deserves around 1M)

Tanev at 4M (was at 4.4M but getting older, deserves around 4M)

Stecher at 2M (was at 2.3M)

Fantenburg at 1M (was at 800K, deserves some sort of raise)

 

Including our current players (excluding Ferland on LTIR) that takes us to 77.4M

Add on Luongo and Spooner's and Baertschi's caps and that's 83.4M

 

There might be some wiggling needed, but I think JB can fit Toffoli and most of the key players back into the fold. If it's a matter of a million here or there he could let Stecher walk and replace him with one of the many young cheap AHL defencemen.

 

The big question mark is what the cap will be, if it's 80M we're in big trouble but then so will a lot of teams...

Unfortunately, unless compliance buyouts are re-introduced or the cap goes up, as was planned, I don't see them all returning.

Of our free agents, I place priority on Marky, Tofu, Virtanen, Gaudette, Macewen, and Stetcher.

 

 

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3 hours ago, komodo0921 said:

Unfortunately, unless compliance buyouts are re-introduced or the cap goes up, as was planned, I don't see them all returning.

Of our free agents, I place priority on Marky, Tofu, Virtanen, Gaudette, Macewen, and Stetcher.

 

 

Compliance buyouts are negotiated as part of the CBA. Since there’s currently no allowance for 1 I’m not sure how they could even do it.  If there’s an appetite for it I guess the NHL and the NHLPA could try to figure out something, but it won’t be a simple declaration by the league that they’re allowing a buyout. 

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13 hours ago, qwijibo said:

Compliance buyouts are negotiated as part of the CBA. Since there’s currently no allowance for 1 I’m not sure how they could even do it.  If there’s an appetite for it I guess the NHL and the NHLPA could try to figure out something, but it won’t be a simple declaration by the league that they’re allowing a buyout. 

That's why the word, "Unless", is in the sentence, meaning both sides have to be willing to negotiate.

As of right now, the CBA rules apply and the cap can't drop. The NHLPA has the right to implement a 5% cap raise if it so chooses.

Not much to discuss, which brings me back to my main point of unfortunate casualties being the result of this situation.

 

 

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1 hour ago, komodo0921 said:

That's why the word, "Unless", is in the sentence, meaning both sides have to be willing to negotiate.

As of right now, the CBA rules apply and the cap can't drop. The NHLPA has the right to implement a 5% cap raise if it so chooses.

Not much to discuss, which brings me back to my main point of unfortunate casualties being the result of this situation.

 

 

I doubt that both sides are interested in it.  It’s the board of governors that decides this things (Ie the owners).  I suspect they’re loath to give their GM’s a couple blank cheque’s to get out of situations they put themselves in. The whole reason for the lockouts was for the owners to protect themselves from overzealous GM’s who were signing players to insane contracts 

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