Wow to the teams who traded away first round picks......

[Salacious Crumb]

On 3/16/2020 at 1:17 PM, apollo said:

People who are in panic and think the NHL won't resume the season once the virus is gone are the same people who are stocking up on toilet paper thinking it'll save them from Corona. 

 

Relax. Stay safe. Isolate yourselves. We are all in this together and hopefully in a month we can stop self isolation 

Wish I had your optimism. This is quite possibly the new norm for the next 12-24 months. Governments will try to get economies going again and another 2 or 3 waves are likely before there is a vaccine.

[ruilin96]

On 3/17/2020 at 7:43 AM, DownUndaCanuck said:

Good on them for doing so, the season isn't over and there may well be playoffs and a Cup winner.

 

Leading into 2011, Gillis just got us a couple of 3rd liners. He should have blown the absolute bank and traded away all our 1st and 2nd round picks of the next 2 years to give Kesler and the Sedins two 30 goal scorers to play with. We not only would have won in 2011 but arguably again the next season and could have created a dynasty. Biggest fault of MG tenure was not going all-in and becoming the ultimate buyer. We could have had a couple of cups. Plus, those picks didn't turn out the best anyway...

What pissed me off even more was when he did traded away a 1st round pick + a decent prospect (aka. Michael Grabner), and all we got was Keith Ballard. This guy could never get out of AV's doghouse and was not worth what we traded away to get him nor was he worth the contract he came with. Absolute dumb move that imo hamstrung the team to get even better.

[smokes]

I don't care, Miller is worth it.

[smithers joe]

15 hours ago, smokes said:

I don't care, Miller is worth it.

amen.

[coastal.view]

On 4/1/2020 at 9:24 PM, FutureFilm said:

It would be interesting to see if the entire season is cancelled is what happens with the conditional picks such as our first. Does it automatically go to next year? Will be interesting to see

i think one sensible solution to consider

is to cancel all trades made at the tdl

since those were made in contemplation of a playoffs that did not happen

 

or to simplify this a bit

maybe cancel all compensation made in these deals

but still require the receiving team to pay any/all salary due to the player after the trade for this season

as the receiving team still got some limited benefit from the player who joined their team

[qwijibo]

23 hours ago, coastal.view said:

i think one sensible solution to consider

is to cancel all trades made at the tdl

since those were made in contemplation of a playoffs that did not happen

 

or to simplify this a bit

maybe cancel all compensation made in these deals

but still require the receiving team to pay any/all salary due to the player after the trade for this season

as the receiving team still got some limited benefit from the player who joined their team

How is that fair to the teams that traded away assets in good faith. The most sensible thing to do is nothing.  Making a trade never comes with a guarantee. You could trade for a player and he could get injured in his first game. The league wouldn’t cancel the trade in that case, and they won’t in this situation 

[Toews]

1 hour ago, qwijibo said:

How is that fair to the teams that traded away assets in good faith. The most sensible thing to do is nothing.  Making a trade never comes with a guarantee. You could trade for a player and he could get injured in his first game. The league wouldn’t cancel the trade in that case, and they won’t in this situation 

Yeah it doesn't make sense to me either. Besides why would you cut it off at the deadline? What about trades that were made before the deadline but were also done under the assumption of a full season? If anything I might give team's a deferral, the opportunity to defer one pick to the following year. In that scenario the Canucks would have the choice to defer either the 1st traded for Miller or the 2nd traded for Toffoli to the following draft. 

[UFCanuck]

Cancel the season and move all the players/picks from the deadline back to their original teams. 

 

[J.I.A.H.N]

So, if the NHL uses last year's and this year's winning percentages and combined them to make a playoff list for this year, the 2020 draft will go like this, to the best of my knowledge.

This includes wild card Teams...…...Not that this is scientific...…...or based on anything, other than my own imagination. But as with everyone else, I am bored!

 

-------------------------------------------------PLAYOFF TEAMS

31. Anaheim from Boston

30. San Jose from Tampa

29. Wash

28. STL

27. Vegas

26. Colorado

25. Winn

24. Minnesota from Pittsburgh

23. Philadelphia

22. Ottawa from New York Islanders

21. New York Ranger's from Carolina

20. Calgary

19. Carolina's from Toronto

18. Dallas

17. Nashville

16. Edmonton

-------------------------------------------------LOTTERY TEAMS

15. Columbus

14. Florida

13. Vancouver

12. Minnesota

11. NYR

10. New Jersey from Arizona

9. Montreal

8. Chicago

7. Ottawa from San Jose

6. Buffalo

5. New Jersey

4. Anaheim 

3. Los Angles 

2. Ottawa

1. Detroit

 

Lottery Winners via Tankathon

 

#1...…...Minnesota

#2...…...Ottawa from San Jose

#3...…...New Jersey

 

Vancouver picks #13 in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft...…………….

 

Yup!...……………………....way  too much time on my hands!...

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by janisahockeynut

[qwijibo]

31 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

So, if the NHL uses last year's and this year's winning percentages and combined them to make a playoff list for this year, the 2020 draft will go like this, to the best of my knowledge.

This includes wild card Teams...…...Not that this is scientific...…...or based on anything, other than my own imagination. But as with everyone else, I am bored!

 

-------------------------------------------------PLAYOFF TEAMS

31. Anaheim from Boston

30. San Jose from Tampa

29. Wash

28. STL

27. Vegas

26. Colorado

25. Winn

24. Minnesota from Pittsburgh

23. Philadelphia

22. Ottawa from New York Islanders

21. New York Ranger's from Carolina

20. Calgary

19. Carolina's from Toronto

18. Dallas

17. Nashville

16. Edmonton

-------------------------------------------------LOTTERY TEAMS

15. Columbus

14. Florida

13. Vancouver

12. Minnesota

11. NYR

10. New Jersey from Arizona

9. Montreal

8. Chicago

7. Ottawa from San Jose

6. Buffalo

5. New Jersey

4. Anaheim 

3. Los Angles 

2. Ottawa

1. Detroit

 

Lottery Winners via Tankathon

 

#1...…...Minnesota

#2...…...Ottawa from San Jose

#3...…...New Jersey

 

Vancouver picks #13 in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft...…………….

 

Yup!...……………………....way  too much time on my hands!...

 

 

 

 

 

Why would they use last season? This season was 85%ish complete.  Why factor in 82 irrelevant games to balance out missing 10-12 games 

[J.I.A.H.N]

29 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

Why would they use last season? This season was 85%ish complete.  Why factor in 82 irrelevant games to balance out missing 10-12 games 

Check the way they did the 2005 draft......

This is just a shorter version

[qwijibo]

9 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

Check the way they did the 2005 draft......

This is just a shorter version

There were no games played in 2004-2005. They had to work out a formula.  2019-2020 was roughly 85% complete. They don’t need to factor in last year.  In fact, factoring in last years complete season seems unreasonable to me when most teams this year only had 10-11 games left. There’s more than enough data there to give a fair seeding for this years draft/lottery. 

[J.I.A.H.N]

Just now, qwijibo said:

There were no games played in 2004-2005. They had to work out a formula.  2019-2020 was roughly 85% complete. They don’t need to factor in last year.  In fact, factoring in last years complete season seems unreasonable to me when most teams this year only had 10-11 games left. There’s more than enough data there to give a fair seeding for this years draft/lottery. 

I was just f'n around

 

How would you do it?

[qwijibo]

11 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

I was just f'n around

 

How would you do it?

I’d just calculate the points percentage for each team this year and then seed the teams as if the playoffs actually happened. Bottom 15 teams keep their draft lottery percentages. Top 16 ranked in ascending point percentage.  
 

If there’s a lot of pushback from the top 16 you do a second lottery for playoff teams to determine 16/17/18 spots. You can mimic the odds to the main lottery for the seeded teams. (So the 16th seeded team has a decent shot at drafting 16th but can’t drop lower than 19). Team with the top point percentage has a 1% chance at picking 16. (And so on) 

 

For what it’s worth I don’t think there’s any need for the second lottery. But it’s a consolation prize for the teams that would have made the playoffs 

Edited April 6, 2020 by qwijibo

[J.I.A.H.N]

8 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

I’d just calculate the points percentage for each team this year and then seed the teams as if the playoffs actually happened. Bottom 15 teams keep their draft lottery percentages. Top 16 ranked in ascending point percentage.  If there’s a lot of pushback from the top 16 you do a second lottery for playoff teams to determine 16/17/18 spots. You can mimic the odds to the main lottery for the seeded teams. (So the 16th seeded team has a decent shot at drafting 16th but can’t drop lower than 19). Team with the top point percentage has a 1% chance at picking 16. (And so on) 

How about calculate every teams winning percentage against each team, then apply those percentages against the remaining games.

 

So if Tampa has beaten Boston 60% of the time, then Tampa wins 60% of the remaining points against Boston...….that way if a team has a weakness against 1 team, then they don't get all the remaining points against that team, just because they may be ahead of them....

 

 

Apply that to all games being played and you get a more fair way to find out the remaining points...……...

Very complicated just like the lottery percentages

 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by janisahockeynut

[qwijibo]

Just now, janisahockeynut said:

How about calculate every teams winning percentage against each team, then apply those percentages against the remaining games.

 

So if Tampa has beaten Boston 60% of the time, then Tampa wins 60% of the remaining points against Boston...….that way if a team has a weakness against 1 team, then they don't get all the remaining points against that team...…..

 

 

Apply that to all games being played and you get a more fair way to find out the remaining points...……...

Very complicated just like the lottery percentages

Not sure I’d do that.  I understand there’s a difference in strength of schedule. But now you’re mixing actual results with theoretical results.  It muddies the water.  I’d just base it on the games that have actually been played.   

[J.I.A.H.N]

2 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

Not sure I’d do that.  I understand there’s a difference in strength of schedule. But now you’re mixing actual results with theoretical results.  It muddies the water.  I’d just base it on the games that have actually been played.   

I get that, but some schedules have teams playing a lot of weak teams at the end of the season and some playing tough teams 

 

My way actually is farer, especially for all teams

[qwijibo]

2 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

I get that, but some schedules have teams playing a lot of weak teams at the end of the season and some playing tough teams 

 

My way actually is farer, especially for all teams

Depends on how you look at it.  Neither way is totally ideal. But I’d much rather have the seeding based on real results rather than what you assume will happen.  There’s a reason they say “that’s why they play the games”.  You can never really predict with certainty the outcome of any given game, let alone a few hundred of them.  

[J.I.A.H.N]

3 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

Depends on how you look at it.  Neither way is totally ideal. But I’d much rather have the seeding based on real results rather than what you assume will happen.  There’s a reason they say “that’s why they play the games”.  You can never really predict with certainty the outcome of any given game, let alone a few hundred of them.  

Agreed, but as you say there is no certainty that the percentage you have at game 69 is the same percentage you would have had at game 82

 

And more than likely it wouldn't

 

So when picks are involved, it is important to get it as right as you can

 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by janisahockeynut

[qwijibo]

1 minute ago, janisahockeynut said:

Agreed, but as you say there is no certainty that the percentage you have at game 69 is the same percentage you would have had at game 82

It almost certainly wouldn’t be the same.  But I think it’s more fair to base the seeding on only the games that have been played.  I can see your point of view. And although I don’t agree I can’t say I’d be outraged if that’s how they did it. I’d just prefer them to base it on fact. Not assumption. (Even is the data set is incomplete and partially flawed)