An abundance of options: Canucks to have fully-healthy roster for play-in series versus Minnesota

[mll]

6 hours ago, xereau said:

Expect the regular season slight of hand magic trick of LTIR musical chairs to be axed into the ground in the next CBA.

It's good for icing a way above cap playoff team, but it's (legal) cap circumvention, 100%.

 

Lots of teams have done it in this recent CBA, and I doubt there will be retroactive penalties applied to it, but with that being said nothing surprises me any more.

LTIR doesn't create cap space.  It's cap limitation more than anything else - it creates bonus overages that then count against next season's cap and limits who teams can recall.  Teams using LTIR can hardly ever build a healthy roster up to the cap.

For the Canucks without LTIR for Ferland they would have been forced to operate at 78M rather than have a healthy roster of up to 81.5M like any other team. It's even actually less because performance bonuses of recalled players have to be accounted for and fit under the cap - eg a Juolevi recall early this year would have been a 2.3M cap hit vs only 863K when not using LTIR.  With Dorsett same - they had to use LTIR to be able to have a healthy roster up to the cap.

 

Injured players count against the cap.  LTIR is a mechanism that allows to exceed the cap up to their cap hit so that teams aren't overly penalised for having a player that can't play.  Their active roster + short term injuries where players are only on IR, is still under the cap.  LTIR does not create cap space.  It's actually complicated to get full relief.  That's why the Canucks made several paper transactions this season and the season where Dorsett was on LTIR.  GMs would apparently like to just remove the LTIR cap from counting to simplify and allow teams to more easily get full relief. 

 

If Ferland can't play and the Canucks don't use LTIR they will have an active roster of 78M at most as his 3.5M cap hit is included in the cap calculation.  LTIR allows them to exceed the cap up to his cap hit of 3.5M, but only up to the portion they need for their active roster to remain cap compliant.  Canucks can operate up to 84M but his 3.5M is the only portion that can exceed the max cap of 81.5M.   There's no cap space created.  That's why there are bonus overages - teams can't bank cap space so the bonuses carry over to next season.  

 

Edited May 29, 2020 by mll

[Captain Canuck #12]

On 5/27/2020 at 5:17 PM, stawns said:

Not surprised that's your line of thinking.  Sutter is a significantly better player that AG at this point in time and you're not sitting a guy like Sutter in the press box in the playoffs.

Anyone who thinks a Sutter would be sat out in the playoffs doesn't know who the Sutters are and doesn't understand the difference between the regular season and the playoffs.

[HockeyHarry]

All the line ups look good imo.

you can actually make a real legitimate with no bs case for each player to be in the lineup. Which means Canucks got very good (much needed) depth to make a good playoff run as players are going to drop like flies in these playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if all 28 players play if Canucks can advance in the playoffs. Round after round injuries are going to happen. It’s great Canucks have so many interchangeable players.

[Rush17]

 

ran into this on youtube lol. got me excited!

[Chris12345]

On 5/29/2020 at 12:28 AM, Captain Canuck #12 said:

Anyone who thinks a Sutter would be sat out in the playoffs doesn't know who the Sutters are and doesn't understand the difference between the regular season and the playoffs.

I'd slot him him as a 4th line winger and he jumps around as needed. No way Gawd takes a third period defensive faceoff.

[ruilin96]

On 5/29/2020 at 12:06 PM, Rush17 said:

 

ran into this on youtube lol. got me excited!

This is one my favourite playoff pump-up videos I saw.

[JM_]

On 5/28/2020 at 9:25 PM, 10pavelbure96 said:

Miller Petersson Boeser

Pearson Horvat Toffoli

Roussel Gaudette Virtanen

Mackewen Beagle Motte

Eriksson

 

Edler Myers

Hughes Tanev

Benn Stecher

Fantenburg Juolevi

 

Markstrom

Demko

Domingue

 

Sutter/Leivo/Ferland on IR

I suspect Green goes with Loui over Mac given how tight the series will be defensively. And for a shorter series mistakes will be magnified. 

 

My concern with Minni is they play a style easier to fall back into, the regular old boring Wild defensive low chance yawn fest. Our guys will need to be sharper.

 

[Baggins]

On 5/26/2020 at 6:23 AM, IBatch said:

This prospect of playoffs is exciting no doubt...

 

Im not sold on moving Pearson off the second line, he’s produced more then anyone else with Horvat on the left side since he’s come, including his 19 or so games from last year he’s close to a 60 point player for us on the second line over 82 games.    Heck he’s close to Horvats production over the same time period too.   Don’t mind TT on that line at all, but also don’t mind BB on that line either - sure great to have options.  Not sure Leivo is better then LE in the bottom six but I suppose that really depends if we are ahead a goal and the nets empty right ? Ha ha.   
 

Fun exercise (OP).   On the flip side MIN will also have all of their troops healed and raring to go, and in a short series rust will matter a lot more then age - and wouldn’t at all be surprised if experience trumps youth in this case so don’t expect it to be an easy go.   Took us a few games at the start of the season to get some momentum...hopefully that had more to do with all the new faces as this time we can’t afford a slow start...think we should blow them out anyways.   Really don’t think there will be a lot of teams that would look forward to playing us ... when we are on we are as good as anyone as we’ve proven many times over the course of the year which does make us intimidating.   We won’t be able to afford this sort of depth next year - might be our best shot at a cup for two or three more years 

I have the reverse view on this. The Nucks have more higher end skill. High skill often feasts on rust to start a season. More likely to capitalize on mistakes made due to rust. Also the older players may be smarter but they can suffer the effects of rust as well.

[Captain Canuck #12]

8 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I suspect Green goes with Loui over Mac given how tight the series will be defensively. And for a shorter series mistakes will be magnified. 

 

My concern with Minni is they play a style easier to fall back into, the regular old boring Wild defensive low chance yawn fest. Our guys will need to be sharper.

 

You might be right re: Mac.  But i have to say, in his last game or two, he looked damn effective out there!  He was overpowering opponents with his size and sheer will, and contributing on the score sheet as well.  Although Loui might be better defensively, Mac made a bigger impact in is last few games than I remember Loui ever making with this team (with the possible exception of scoring into his own net in his very first game).

[JM_]

7 hours ago, Captain Canuck #12 said:

You might be right re: Mac.  But i have to say, in his last game or two, he looked damn effective out there!  He was overpowering opponents with his size and sheer will, and contributing on the score sheet as well.  Although Loui might be better defensively, Mac made a bigger impact in is last few games than I remember Loui ever making with this team (with the possible exception of scoring into his own net in his very first game).

if we were facing Winnipeg or Calgary I think I'd want Mac in. 

 

As far as Loui goes i know the narrative is he stinks on ice but I've dug into the stats with him with different partners and the one thing he still does is lower shots and chances, so thats why I think Green slots him in, at least game 1. 

[Philthy]

Has Ferland been cleared to play? If so he needs to be slotted in he's shown he can be a beast in the playoffs.

[DS4quality]

13 minutes ago, Boone Jenner said:

Has Ferland been cleared to play? If so he needs to be slotted in he's shown he can be a beast in the playoffs.

He has! But I'd be worried about him catching up to game speed. Look at Roussel first two games were great, but then it was like a nosedive off a cliff for a long stretch.  Not saying I don't think he could catch up, but with as many concussions as he's had, I fear he may also play a little more hesitant on the physical side. 

In my opinion he's a wild card. 

[IBatch]

19 hours ago, Baggins said:

I have the reverse view on this. The Nucks have more higher end skill. High skill often feasts on rust to start a season. More likely to capitalize on mistakes made due to rust. Also the older players may be smarter but they can suffer the effects of rust as well.

Staal and Parise may be long in the tooth but they also know they’ve been given a gift if this happens ... MIN is an old, experienced team...Staal was considered all but done a few years ago and then did a lot without a lot to work with - including a 42 goal season ... and Parise doesn’t seem done yet either with 46 points on the year ... sure they can have rust too but I’m sure they won’t roll over and despite being long in the tooth still have a lot of bite left in them when it comes down to a do or die five game deal.    Our team didn’t hit its stride for a few games either....of course a huge personal change had something to do with it... we played way too much rope a dope with Markstrom keeping the score close and often stealing a win...our team can look rusty the first few games of the year - 1/4 the way through, 1/2 way through and 2/3 the way the through so I’m definitely not thinking this will be easy - and won’t be shocked if we don’t win any games either.

 

That said I do think we have better odds.    A lot of our home grown players haven’t seen any playoff action yet and they will get tested for sure.   It won’t be easy on them and starting with MIN is a godsend compared to some other teams.   Think we will win in four games if I had to make a prediction right now.   
 

Edit:  EP will get smothered and knocked around more then he usually gets (which is several times a game already) - these guy will come on like it‘s a playoff game - a lot could depend on how the refs call it.   If they call it like a regular season game then we should get our usual PP advantage from the muggings, if not then that advantage is taken away and it could go either way as far as EPs effectiveness in the series (seriously how many times does EP fall down in a game? Not sure if he’s trying to draw a penalty or is just like a house cards and if you blow on him too hard he falls over).  .  QHs too but I think to a lesser extent given his skating is sublime enough to get away easier.    Rust matters for sure - but so does players willingness to do battle and not get taken off their game.  For Vancouver our vets won’t get rattled - but our young guys could - and don’t think MIN will be as easy to bully.   Big Mac could help... hate this but the way the games are called could also be a factor in the series as we rely on our PP and Markstrom a lot...

Edited June 1, 2020 by IBatch

[Baratheon]

28 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Staal and Parise may be long in the tooth but they also know they’ve been given a gift if this happens ... MIN is an old, experienced team...Staal was considered all but done a few years ago and then did a lot without a lot to work with - including a 42 goal season ... and Parise doesn’t seem done yet either with 46 points on the year ... sure they can have rust too but I’m sure they won’t roll over and despite being long in the tooth still have a lot of bite left in them when it comes down to a do or die five game deal.    Our team didn’t hit its stride for a few games either....of course a huge personal change had something to do with it... we played way too much rope a dope with Markstrom keeping the score close and often stealing a win...our team can look rusty the first few games of the year - 1/4 the way through, 1/2 way through and 2/3 the way the through so I’m definitely not thinking this will be easy - and won’t be shocked if we don’t win any games either.

 

That said I do think we have better odds.    A lot of our home grown players haven’t seen any playoff action yet and they will get tested for sure.   It won’t be easy on them and starting with MIN is a godsend compared to some other teams.   Think we will win in four games if I had to make a prediction right now.   
 

Edit:  EP will get smothered and knocked around more then he usually gets (which is several times a game already) - these guy will come on like it‘s a playoff game - a lot could depend on how the refs call it.   If they call it like a regular season game then we should get our usual PP advantage from the muggings, if not then that advantage is taken away and it could go either way as far as EPs effectiveness in the series (seriously how many times does EP fall down in a game? Not sure if he’s trying to draw a penalty or is just like a house cards and if you blow on him too hard he falls over).  .  QHs too but I think to a lesser extent given his skating is sublime enough to get away easier.    Rust matters for sure - but so does players willingness to do battle and not get taken off their game.  For Vancouver our vets won’t get rattled - but our young guys could - and don’t think MIN will be as easy to bully.   Big Mac could help... hate this but the way the games are called could also be a factor in the series as we rely on our PP and Markstrom a lot...

Win or lose I think this is what we need!  Petey and Hughes (among others) need to be thrown in to the fire!  Let them get smacked around a bit.  I want Petey to be giving his weight set the "death glare" all off-season (however long that is lol)

 

Jake is another one.  He seems like such an emotional guy that I've been very curious as to what a tough playoff series would do to him.  

[Tyster]

Miller Petersson Boeser

Pearson Horvat Toffoli

Mackewen Sutter Virtanen

Roussel Gaudette Ferland

 

Extras

Leivo Beagle Erickson

Edited June 1, 2020 by Tyster
addition

[Lancaster]

5 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

if we were facing Winnipeg or Calgary I think I'd want Mac in. 

 

As far as Loui goes i know the narrative is he stinks on ice but I've dug into the stats with him with different partners and the one thing he still does is lower shots and chances, so thats why I think Green slots him in, at least game 1. 

Yep.  If Loui was making $3 million, he would be a decent enough player with minimal complaints.  

But as a $6 million player.... the bitter taste of not meeting expectations will overshadow anything he will ever do in a Canucks uniform.... short of him scoring series/cup winning goals.  

[JM_]

8 minutes ago, Lancaster said:

Yep.  If Loui was making $3 million, he would be a decent enough player with minimal complaints.  

But as a $6 million player.... the bitter taste of not meeting expectations will overshadow anything he will ever do in a Canucks uniform.... short of him scoring series/cup winning goals.  

thats it really. 

 

I suspect the game plan is to go with a short bench game 1, with Loui having one of those 6 or 7 minute games where he pretty much gets PK duty. 

[mll]

5 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

if we were facing Winnipeg or Calgary I think I'd want Mac in. 

 

As far as Loui goes i know the narrative is he stinks on ice but I've dug into the stats with him with different partners and the one thing he still does is lower shots and chances, so thats why I think Green slots him in, at least game 1. 

Also the Canucks best puck battler according to Sportlogiq's video tracking. They ran a bracket a few weeks ago - 16 best of each division but at least 1 player per team.  Eriksson the lone representative for the Canucks.  Wild had Staal, Greenway, Foligno with Koivu winning it all.  

 

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, Baratheon said:

Win or lose I think this is what we need!  Petey and Hughes (among others) need to be thrown in to the fire!  Let them get smacked around a bit.  I want Petey to be giving his weight set the "death glare" all off-season (however long that is lol)

 

Jake is another one.  He seems like such an emotional guy that I've been very curious as to what a tough playoff series would do to him.  

Me too (Jake).  And Horvat - think he has an inner beast in him - needs the other team to wake him up though (which is perfect come playoff time).   JT Miller is for sure the best example on the team right now on what needs to be done - after the season he’s had I’m expecting great things from him too.  Both Pearson and TT will also help our team...really it has so much potential a real run wouldn’t shock me (and I’m sure hoping it will happen!).    Fingers crossed they get it done (the hurdles required to get there) something tells me this playoffs will be nothing if not spectacular if it happens for all teams involved and every series will have cool storylines. 

[JM_]

3 hours ago, mll said:

Also the Canucks best puck battler according to Sportlogiq's video tracking. They ran a bracket a few weeks ago - 16 best of each division but at least 1 player per team.  Eriksson the lone representative for the Canucks.  Wild had Staal, Greenway, Foligno with Koivu winning it all.  

 

yikes..... that explains a lot about the wild doing well in the 2nd half of the season