Canuck Surfer

[Official] NHL Return To Play Thread (24 team play off, 15 team draft lottery)

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29 minutes ago, Fanuck said:

As a hockey fan I'm happy they're at least trying to figure out a plan.

 

As a traditionalist, this year's season and eventual cup winner is going to have a giant * beside it unfortunately. 

Would be a shame to win a cup this year somehow and have dummies around the league be like "Yeah it doesn't count though". Haters gonna hate.

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6 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

I imagine there are protocols to pass?

 

I doubt they announced without some consensus it was otherwise viable. Did their diligence with owners, government, medico's, and on & on. 

 

Obviously having the backing of the players via the NHLPA.  

my understanding is the vote by the NHLPA was on the format only.  Everything else still needs to be discussed, voted on etc.

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So we have to be under the cap?  Might be a problem if Ferland is able to come off LTIR.

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8 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

This proposed playoff format is an absolute joke.  24 teams?  Why?  Is it just for the Covid issue this year?  Will it return to normal next season?

What's wrong with it?  I mean if teams played different amounts of games it doesn't make sense to either go points or points percentage as the determinant for entry because either way someone will complain.
Division winners and a 4th entrant is reasonable I think since by most measurements these 4 would've made it (could be wrong, if I am someone prove it).

Probably just for this year?  I mean people keep throwing around "unprecedented" and definitely this would be a measure fresh out of the oven. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Toews said:

If I am understanding the lottery correctly they are going to use placeholders for picks 8-15, if a placeholder pick wins a top 3 pick then a separate lottery will be held with equal odds for all the teams that lost in the play-in. There is a very real possibility that losing would give you a 1/8 chance at a top 3 pick. Imagine if one of the placeholder picks win 1st overall, Habs fans would want to tank for a 1/8 chance at Lafraniere than an improbable run to the end.

Not equal odds for the 2nd lottery:

 

The odds for each losing team in the Qualifying Round for the first drawing of the Second Phase, determined by inverse order of regular-season point percentage, will be as follows:

Team A -- 24.5 percent

Team B -- 20.4 percent

Team C -- 14.3 percent

Team D -- 12.2 percent

Team E -- 10.2 percent

Team F -- 8.2 percent

Team G -- 6.1 percent

Team H -- 4.1 percent

 

Edit.  I took the numbers/scale from the NHL website but they've corrected their wording since.  It's 12.5% across the board.  

 

Edited by mll
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2 minutes ago, DonaldBrashear said:

Would be a shame to win a cup this year somehow and have dummies around the league be like "Yeah it doesn't count though". Haters gonna hate.

I was thinking this, but didn't want to mention it for fear of, well, 'jinx'.  But yeah, I wouldn't want our first to have an * beside it and I would be worried it would. 

But at the same time, I'm not gonna lie, I'll watch every one of our games just like I would've if there were no COVID. 

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I do see an issue with the draft idea if I am reading it correctly.

Before the teams play the "play in" round, they will know how many "placeholder" teams will be picking in the top 3 of the draft.

The 8 placeholder teams have about a cumulative 25% to win each top 3 draft.  It isn't even highly unlikely that two of them move up to that spot (it happened last year).

So that means a fringe team that knows that is virtually no chance of winning 5 rounds of playoff hockey could know that by losing the play in round, they would have a 25% chance of a top 3 pick before the puck is dropped.

That is literally the best tanking odds in the history of the game.  Would team brass not be inclined to put their best foot forward in order for a great chance at the three highly touted picks this year?

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21 minutes ago, Herberts Vasiljevs said:

Boo hoo.

I feel emotional now too.

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29 minutes ago, Where's Wellwood said:

 

I think its for the best we kick Minnesota's ass with the team we have this year all the time, every time

FTFY.

 

 

 

:towel:

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30 minutes ago, Where's Wellwood said:

 

 

We should keep our 2020 1st rounder if we lose to Minnesota. That would mean our unprotected 2021 first rounder would go to New Jersey no matter what next season, which is frightening when the salary cap for 2020-2021 could be very flat and we have players that need raises.

 

 

not sure we need to worry that much, we're probably only talking about a difference of a few spots in the middle of the pack. The chance of getting a 1st rounder thats going to contribute right away is low either way. 

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2 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

So we have to be under the cap?  Might be a problem if Ferland is able to come off LTIR.

No.  They will apparently not be cap counting for the play-ins.  

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2 minutes ago, stawns said:

my understanding is the vote by the NHLPA was on the format only.  Everything else still needs to be discussed, voted on etc.

I personally wish they were not playing. There are tens of thousands of cases out there.

 

Maybe I am a hypocrite? I count myself lucky to be working at the moment.

 

But where I live, the borders are completely closed. My sense is the virus is spreading faster in Canada & notably in the US due to much less stringent protocols.

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13 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

This proposed playoff format is an absolute joke.  24 teams?  Why?  Is it just for the Covid issue this year?  Will it return to normal next season?

You're smarter than that, Of course it's because of the Covid issue. The team cannot complete the regular season, It will go back to normal next year.

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4 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

I personally wish they were not playing. There are tens of thousands of cases out there.

 

Maybe I am a hypocrite? I count myself lucky to be working at the moment.

 

But where I live, the borders are completely closed. My sense is the virus is spreading faster in Canada & notably in the US due to much less stringent protocols.

I honestly can't believe theyre even contemplating playing games in the US and Vegas to boot.  

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Toews said:

If I am understanding the lottery correctly they are going to use placeholders for picks 8-15, if a placeholder pick wins a top 3 pick then a separate lottery will be held with equal odds for all the teams that lost in the play-in. There is a very real possibility that losing would give you a 1/8 chance at a top 3 pick. Imagine if one of the placeholder picks win 1st overall, Habs fans would want to tank for a 1/8 chance at Lafraniere than an improbable run to the end.

This was my first thought.

They will know how many placeholder are picking in the top 3 before they drop the puck on the play in round.  There could easily be two of those 8 losers in the top 3 as placeholders.  Two teams moved way up last year so the math isn't astronomical or anything, cumulatively those 8 losers have a 25% shot at each top 3 selection.

What fringe team would trade a 25% chance at a top 3 pick for an tiny chance of going on a miracle run and winning 5 playoff series.  The players would try hard, but the organization may not put their best foot forward.  Literally the best tanking odds in history and it only takes losing 3 of 5 games to earn it.

Edited by Provost
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5 minutes ago, mll said:

No.  They will apparently not be cap counting for the play-ins.  

have you heard any word on signing ELCs to be able to join teams for the playoffs?

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21 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

bettman said they plan to have a full schedule of games next year. if the season starts in december, does next season go longer or do they push more games into the existing season? i can’t see the PA agreeing with that. what will the player’s off season look like? 2 weeks off and start again?

If there is a significant fall peak that leads to another big shutdown, all plans can be thrown out for next season. 

 

As for this yr, it will suck to not have a cup parade.  Maybe just a drive by through Stanley Park and downtown east side...

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, mll said:

Not equal odds for the 2nd lottery:

 

The odds for each losing team in the Qualifying Round for the first drawing of the Second Phase, determined by inverse order of regular-season point percentage, will be as follows:

Team A -- 24.5 percent

Team B -- 20.4 percent

Team C -- 14.3 percent

Team D -- 12.2 percent

Team E -- 10.2 percent

Team F -- 8.2 percent

Team G -- 6.1 percent

Team H -- 4.1 percent

Where did you get that from?

That is even worse in terms of the fringe teams benefitting from tanking.  Montreal knows it is Team A if it loses right?

If they know a placeholder is in 1st overall, and possibly another placeholder in the top 3 as well... those are incredible odds compared with the odds of winning 5 playoff rounds.

Edited by Provost

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20 minutes ago, mll said:

Not equal odds for the 2nd lottery:

 

The odds for each losing team in the Qualifying Round for the first drawing of the Second Phase, determined by inverse order of regular-season point percentage, will be as follows:

Team A -- 24.5 percent

Team B -- 20.4 percent

Team C -- 14.3 percent

Team D -- 12.2 percent

Team E -- 10.2 percent

Team F -- 8.2 percent

Team G -- 6.1 percent

Team H -- 4.1 percent

wait i thought i heard equal odds from bettman talking. maybe im just crazy

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