mll Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 The placeholders had a 24.5% chance of winning the lottery and it's team E with a 2.5% chance that won it for them. Going by point percentage of the bottom-4 of each conference the Jets would have been team E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKNuck96 Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Is it Conceivable now to see some potential Conditional pick trades from the playin teams to trade away a potential first pick to a desperate team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, DeNiro said: So that pick would be 15th? 17th if the extended season is cancelled. 1-7 teams already eliminated from the extended season 8-15 the 8 teams that get to draw for 1st overall with CBJ and Florida ahead of Calgary/Vancouver as it's 4 lowest ranked teams by conference. 16 Calgary 17 Vancouver Edited June 27, 2020 by mll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squamfan Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 31 minutes ago, mll said: The placeholders had a 24.5% chance of winning the lottery and it's team E with a 2.5% chance that won it for them. Going by point percentage of the bottom-4 of each conference the Jets would have been team E. And if it was not points percent age it would have been vancouver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skategal Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 I'll admit...the whole draft process - percentages, odds etc makes my head hurt. Thank you to those that understand it for making it simpler for those of us who are not math prodigy's. You all are probably good at counting cards in Vegas as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 7 hours ago, mll said: The placeholders had a 24.5% chance of winning the lottery and it's team E with a 2.5% chance that won it for them. Going by point percentage of the bottom-4 of each conference the Jets would have been team E. I don’t understand. So the 8 teams that are eliminated from play ins still have a 12.5% chance each correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 9 hours ago, mll said: Columbus Blue Jackets are 0.579 Calgary 0.564 Canucks 0.565 with 27 wins in regulation. Panthers 0.565 with 30 wins in regulation. Isn't correct if the NHL stat page have their numbers right. Should be Calgary and Canucks over CBJ and Florida. Should have read the previous pages before posting. So, the Panthers have same winning percentage as the Canucks and have more wins but somehow they are below us? Ah...bottom 4 of each conference - well that is just stupid. All right, Canucks better win the Cup instead then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chickenspear Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 45 minutes ago, DeNiro said: I don’t understand. So the 8 teams that are eliminated from play ins still have a 12.5% chance each correct? Yeah, the 8 who are eliminated from the play-ins will all have equal shots at it. Only if the post season is cancelled do they revert to the bottom 4 play-in teams per conference, in which we lose a shot at a lotto pick, and our 2020 1st with no postseason play to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 35 minutes ago, Chickenspear said: Yeah, the 8 who are eliminated from the play-ins will all have equal shots at it. Only if the post season is cancelled do they revert to the bottom 4 play-in teams per conference, in which we lose a shot at a lotto pick, and our 2020 1st with no postseason play to show for it. that's the likliest scenario, by far, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chickenspear Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 minute ago, stawns said: that's the likliest scenario, by far, imo. I chalk it up to typical "Canuck Luck" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Chickenspear said: I chalk it up to typical "Canuck Luck" true story Truly, it could be a long time before there's any hockey anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofsurrey Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 50 minutes ago, Chickenspear said: Yeah, the 8 who are eliminated from the play-ins will all have equal shots at it. Only if the post season is cancelled do they revert to the bottom 4 play-in teams per conference, in which we lose a shot at a lotto pick, and our 2020 1st with no postseason play to show for it. There is always a risk of trading a top round pick for a rental. Personally, i am not for this approach unless it is designed to put a solid playoff club into Cup contention. I don't think the Canucks were in this position this year.... so i was very much against acquiring rentals this year. These kinds of decisions can really hurt the club long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 hour ago, DeNiro said: I don’t understand. So the 8 teams that are eliminated from play ins still have a 12.5% chance each correct? Teams 8 to 15 pooled their combinations to make 1 mega-pool with a 24.5% chance at 1st overall - more than Detroit's 18.5%. Any of the 8 placeholder teams winning the lottery wins it for the group. The team that won it for them was team E that had a 2.5% chance of winning the lottery (had they not pooled their combinations). Now that they've won the lottery the 8 teams eliminated in the play-ins will get a 12.5% shot at 1st overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nave Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, DeNiro said: I don’t understand. So the 8 teams that are eliminated from play ins still have a 12.5% chance each correct? Yes. There were 8 placeholders (Team A - Team H), with them all adding up to 24.5%. The placeholder that won was Team E, which had a 2.5% chance to get first. But, they're trying to make it sound like it was such an unpredictable outcome even though a placeholder had a 24.5% chance to win the lottery--the second highest odds to Ottawa which had a 25% chance. Now, they'll do a second phase of the draft lottery for the teams that lose in the qualifying round, and each team will have a 12.5% chance to get 1st overall. Edited June 27, 2020 by NaveJoseph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hogs & Podz Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, NaveJoseph said: Yes. There were 8 placeholders (Team A - Team H), with them all adding up to 24.5%. The placeholder that won was Team E, which had a 2.5% chance to get first. But, they're trying to make it sound like it was such an unpredictable outcome even though a placeholder had a 24.5% chance to win the lottery--the second highest odds to Ottawa which had a 25% chance. Now, they'll do a second phase of the draft lottery for the teams that lose in the qualifying round, and each team will have a 12.5% chance to get 1st overall. Wasn't aware of this... Pretty dirty if you ask me. Basically awarding the bubble or middling teams and some already strong teams... Just doesn't make any sense. As a canuck fan, we're not as effected negatively but Ottawa, Detroit... dang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Hogs & Podz said: Wasn't aware of this... Pretty dirty if you ask me. Basically awarding the bubble or middling teams and some already strong teams... Just doesn't make any sense. As a canuck fan, we're not as effected negatively but Ottawa, Detroit... dang! Gotta be some PO’d GMs today. After suffering through such miserable seasons neither Detroit or Ottawa walked away with their prize. Instead a team like Pittsburgh could add another star. Seems to me this is the result the NHL always wanted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nave Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Hogs & Podz said: Wasn't aware of this... Pretty dirty if you ask me. Basically awarding the bubble or middling teams and some already strong teams... Just doesn't make any sense. As a canuck fan, we're not as effected negatively but Ottawa, Detroit... dang! Yeah I feel bad for Detroit, because they need help badly. Ottawa should be happy they did the trade with the Sharks, but they dropped from 2nd and 3rd to 3rd and 5th, which sucks too. While I'm happy the Canucks have a good chance to get 1st overall if we lose in the play-in, if a team like the Penguins or Oilers won that'd be messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Just now, DeNiro said: Gotta be some PO’d GMs today. After suffering through such miserable seasons neither Detroit or Ottawa walked away with their prize. Instead a team like Pittsburgh could add another star. Seems to me this is the result the NHL always wanted. I doubt the NHL wanted one of the placeholders to win the lottery. Feels more like they didn't fully understand the maths and that it could lead to such an absurd result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hogs & Podz Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 In light of the lottery structuring during this covid effected hockey season, Bettman loves to punish the bottom dwelling teams and reward the middling teams. Every year a team placed 10-15 has jumped up to the top 3 except the Matthews year. The same theme this year but even more heavily weighted to the middling teams such as ourselves. I guess he doesn't want to award poor managing? I mean are the perennial middling teams managed any better e.g. Minny, Florida, Montreal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 (edited) The lottery draw here. The 9min mark is when team E won the lottery. Edited June 27, 2020 by mll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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