[Proposal] Ehrhoff-ing the Bolts 2020

[Ilya Mikheyev]

Proposal

To Tampa Bay

Kole Lind

Adam Gaudette's rights

Guillaume Brisebois' rights

 

To Vancouver

Tyler Johnson

Erik Cernak's rights

Braydon Coburn

 

Bottom line: Tampa Bay is in what many hockey analysts are calling "cap hell." They have 76 million locked up to just 15 players and have to sign....wait for it....Coleman, Cirelli, Cernak, Sergachev and have only 3 D locked up otherwise. They need to clear space. Tyler Johnson appears to the be prime candidate to be on his way out. While Gaudette is a major downgrade from Johnson, he's got a good cost-benefit analysis and could eat up some sheltered minutes for Cooper.  Canucks need an upgrade/replacement for Tanev next to Hughes. Cernak may be the best, reasonable fit (like...not Ekblad but better than Tanev), in the league. The 6'3, 233 pound, right-sided defender has been playing on the 'top shutdown pairing' for the team poised the win the cup at the age of 23. Tyler Johnson is a playoff vet who still produces at a .5 PPG clip despite averaging well under 15 mins a game. He can play all 3 forward positions well, and the point on the powerplay. His versatility and exp. is a perfect for a team that has younger players slotting in and battling for spots. While his offensive #s have taken a hit this playoffs, he's playing behind a stacked forward crew and is actually 2nd on the team in points per 60 mins played 5-on-5. He also has 49 hits in 23 games, because he elevates his game in the playoffs- remember his 2015 and 2016 runs where he had 40 points in 43 games, incl. 20 goals. From T-Bay's perspective, he's a cap hit that must be moved. He has a NTC so probably wants to stay with a competitive team; he's also from the PNW.

 

Misc.:

• Bolts clear up to 6.7 million with this trade
• Sergachev appears extremely confident he will re-sign in Tampa
• Benning might have some relationship with Brisebois based on the JT Miller cap dump
• Kole Lind and Breeze gives this waiver ineligible depth- badly needed for a team that isn't gonna be able to afford much depth this off-season
• It's my belief that Horvat badly needs a 2-way responsible winger who can GENERATE offense on his line. Pearson is a great 3rd line winger who can step up but offensively he's riding the coattails of Bo, not creating. This was esp. true when he had 0 points (other than a empty net goal and empty net assist) in the last 11 playoff games this year
• Coburn is washed up, but he and Benn could compete for the 7th D spot next year - altho Coburn is LHD, he has exp playing both sides
• Johnson gives the Canucks more PP options- which got predictable and shutdown against Vegas. At least he'll breathe life into the 2nd unit
• Kole Lind & Cal Foote are former Kelowna teammates
• With Chatfield, Rafferty, Juolevi & Benn ahead of him on the depth chart, Brisebois is probably not gonna make the cut with Vancouver this year anyway
• Johnson can also slip into the 3rd line C position and give the Canucks a third offensive threatening line
• While this does not provide the Canucks with the BIG step up they need on D to be a cup contender this year, I think it's an improvement on the team's general 2-way play, and the Canucks will have some natural breakout improvement with Hughes another year deep, and Juolevi replacing Fanta.
• I see this is somewhat similar to the Ehrhoff trade of 2009- no picks or top-ranked propects were moved in a team stuck in a bad cap spot

 

Possible cap compliant line-up:

 

Miller (5.25) - Pettersson (3.8) - Boeser (5.875)

Johnson (5) - Horvat (5.5) - Virtanen (2.75)

Pearson (3) - Sutter (4.375) - UFA/(Bobby Ryan?Caggiula?Maroon?) (1.4)

Motte (1.75) - Beagle (3) - Eriksson (6)

MacEwen or Bailey (800k - 1.4)

 

LTIR: Ferland, Dumped separately: Baer  Buyout: Roussel

 

Hughes (1.6) - Cernak (4.2)

Edler (6) - Myers (6)

Juolevi (.863) - Stech/UFA (Bogosian??) (2)

Coburn (1.7), Chatfield (.750)

 

Minors: Benn (still 975,000 against cap)

 

Demmer (1.05)

Greiss/MAF/Talbot (3.6)

 

Total cap hit: 81.5 (incl. Spooner & Luongo)

 

Obviously there's some room for changes here, but just one way it could work. If Eriksson is somehow moved or retires there's also a lot more flexibility

 

Thoughts?

 

Edited September 27, 2020 by Teemu Selänne

[Quantum]

Why don't we just make Cernak an offersheet of 4.3 mill and give Tampa a 2021 Second Round pick instead? They likely won't be able to match and Cernak would likely take it (as he most likely gets lowballed by Tampa). Tampa doesn't have cap space and may welcome the 2nd round pick.

 

I don't hate this trade proposal but there's an easier and more asset efficient way to get Cernak. And that's just to have the Canucks have the balls to offer sheet Cernak.

[BPA]

Johnson and Coburn have NTC.  So they can dictate if they want to stay or go.

 

TB most moveable assets are Point and Killorn (M-NTC).

 

They can get a kings ransom for Point.  I'm sure they can also trade Killorn for a good return. 

 

[Ilya Mikheyev]

2 minutes ago, Quantum said:

Why don't we just make Cernak an offersheet of 4.3 mill and give Tampa a 2021 Second Round pick instead? They likely won't be able to match and Cernak would likely take it (as he most likely gets lowballed by Tampa). Tampa doesn't have cap space and may welcome the 2nd round pick.

 

I don't hate this trade proposal but there's an easier and more asset efficient way to get Cernak. And that's just to have the Canucks have the balls to offer sheet Cernak.

I just can't think of an offersheet that has been successful in the last 13 years; and it seems like a move that maybe ruins relationships between GMs. I'm not against it but don't see it as a common tool- but these are uncommon times.

[Ilya Mikheyev]

5 minutes ago, BPA said:

Johnson and Coburn have NTC.  So they can dictate if they want to stay or go.

 

TB most moveable assets are Point and Killorn (M-NTC).

 

They can get a kings ransom for Point.  I'm sure they can also trade Killorn for a good return. 

 

I agree Killorn will probably also be moved (both Johnson and him will probably be moved for Tampa to keep Sergachev and Cirelli IMO), but I kind of imagine they'll wanna hold onto B Point.

[86Viking]

Cernak is the perfect target we should be going after. I would be okay with Johnson on the Canucks, can expose him to Seattle...he was born and played junior hockey in Spokane so he could be Seattle's version of Derek Engelland for Vegas.

 

What would Tampa be willing to take back tho...they likely just want draft picks or prospects in return not any players with salary

[Wanless]

45 minutes ago, Quantum said:

Why don't we just make Cernak an offersheet of 4.3 mill and give Tampa a 2021 Second Round pick instead? They likely won't be able to match and Cernak would likely take it (as he most likely gets lowballed by Tampa). Tampa doesn't have cap space and may welcome the 2nd round pick.

 

I don't hate this trade proposal but there's an easier and more asset efficient way to get Cernak. And that's just to have the Canucks have the balls to offer sheet Cernak.

Trade relationship is why you don't do that

[Ilya Mikheyev]

28 minutes ago, Canuckster86 said:

Cernak is the perfect target we should be going after. I would be okay with Johnson on the Canucks, can expose him to Seattle...he was born and played junior hockey in Spokane so he could be Seattle's version of Derek Engelland for Vegas.

 

What would Tampa be willing to take back tho...they likely just want draft picks or prospects in return not any players with salary

Pretty much my thoughts. T-Bay still needs skaters and I figure Gaudette's point production along with the lack of contract leverage he will have is a good replacement for Johnson. Lind and Brisebois are both waiver exempt so gives them depth for another deep run next year- it's possible they'd prefer picks. But 6.7M cleared in one transaction is probably a jackpot for Brisebois; but for sure my value could be off.

[Quantum]

44 minutes ago, Teemu Selänne said:

I just can't think of an offersheet that has been successful in the last 13 years; and it seems like a move that maybe ruins relationships between GMs. I'm not against it but don't see it as a common tool- but these are uncommon times.

Dustin Penner was the last successful one.

 

The truth is, GM's just don't do it and it's a broken system. RFA's should be moving around more. You see RFA's move all the time in the NBA. There's a weird gentleman's club thing in the NHL that I can't stand. I also think the "ruin relationships" angle is overblown. It can make them mad but if you can't match, that has everything to do with cap management and not on the player and the other team coming to a fair deal. Also, the player makes the call signing the deal and it only benefits them in the long run because they most likely get a better deal by signing an offer sheet than they would if they didn't. Look at Aho last summer, for example, sure he didn't make it to Montreal but by signing the offer sheet with Montreal, he gets to strut into NHL free agency likely 3 years earlier than if he had agreed to the 8 year contract that Carolina likely would have pressured him into signing... Also, the offer sheet didn't hurt Montreal/Carolina's relationship because they made the Joel Edmundson trade a couple of weeks ago. It's just business.

 

In a Covid 19 and flat cap world, signing a guy to an offer sheet isn't a bad time. If there's any time to do it -- it's now. And the Canucks can afford to exploit this -- especially if Tampa Bay can't unload a contract in time.

 

I also don't see Tampa moving Tyler Johnson... I think they plan on using him as expansion draft bait to protect other guys on the roster. I think the lure for Seattle to get a home state guy can't be understated and he'd be a bigger draw for them then if they picked some other guy off the Tampa Bay roster. If Tampa is looking to move salary, I suspect they either move Yanni Gourde or Alex Killorn.

That said, I'd love to have Tyler Johnson on the roster as he'd be a great 3C that can move up the lineup if Petey or Horvat get injured.

[Ilya Mikheyev]

10 minutes ago, Quantum said:

Dustin Penner was the last successful one.

 

The truth is, GM's just don't do it and it's a broken system. RFA's should be moving around more. You see RFA's move all the time in the NBA. There's a weird gentleman's club thing in the NHL that I can't stand. I also think the "ruin relationships" angle is overblown. It can make them mad but if you can't match, that has everything to do with cap management and not on the player and the other team coming to a fair deal. Also, the player makes the call signing the deal and it only benefits them in the long run because they most likely get a better deal by signing an offer sheet than they would if they didn't. Look at Aho last summer, for example, sure he didn't make it to Montreal but by signing the offer sheet with Montreal, he gets to strut into NHL free agency likely 3 years earlier than if he had agreed to the 8 year contract that Carolina likely would have pressured him into signing... Also, the offer sheet didn't hurt Montreal/Carolina's relationship because they made the Joel Edmundson trade a couple of weeks ago. It's just business.

 

In a Covid 19 and flat cap world, signing a guy to an offer sheet isn't a bad time. If there's any time to do it -- it's now. And the Canucks can afford to exploit this -- especially if Tampa Bay can't unload a contract in time.

 

I also don't see Tampa moving Tyler Johnson... I think they plan on using him as expansion draft bait to protect other guys on the roster. I think the lure for Seattle to get a home state guy can't be understated and he'd be a bigger draw for them then if they picked some other guy off the Tampa Bay roster. If Tampa is looking to move salary, I suspect they either move Yanni Gourde or Alex Killorn.

That said, I'd love to have Tyler Johnson on the roster as he'd be a great 3C that can move up the lineup if Petey or Horvat get injured.

All fair points- I want offersheets to be utilized more too, but I'm just thinking about what will actually happen, and I kind of doubt Benning will go that route, but you never know.

 

I agree also that the Bolts will trade 2 of Killorn, Johnson & Gourde (as well as either move or buyout Coburn). But Gourde has been really clutch these playoffs- which of course is a good time to cash in on someone. I don't think Johnson is anymore untouchable that the other 2 on this list tho.

 

And yea, that's what I like about Tyler, is he can play all 3 positions, so younger players (in the next two years, Virt, Hoglander, Motte, Podz,  Big Mac, Lind if he isn't incl. in this proposal for example) can all battle their way up the line-up and Johnson can fill in wherever needed and be a very useful forward. His contract is also not super+ long so it's a manageable cap dump.

Edited September 26, 2020 by Teemu Selänne

[Nucker 67]

Let's not forget there are probably 25+ other teams who would love to have some of Tampa's players. They're about to win a Cup lol  

 

Next...

[Rick Blight]

37 minutes ago, Teemu Selänne said:

Pretty much my thoughts. T-Bay still needs skaters and I figure Gaudette's point production along with the lack of contract leverage he will have is a good replacement for Johnson. Lind and Brisebois are both waiver exempt so gives them depth for another deep run next year- it's possible they'd prefer picks. But 6.7M cleared in one transaction is probably a jackpot for Brisebois; but for sure my value could be off.

Brisebois is not waiver exempt.

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/waivers-calculator

[Rick Blight]

I think you are understating the trade a little. After your proposed trade the Canucks will have lost Markstrom, Tanev, Toffoli and Gaudette from their playoff roster. Those players will be replaced by Johnson, Cernak, Coburn and Greiss/Talbot. While I would love to have Cernak I just don't see how this would make us a better team than the one we iced this year. If we are going to let Markstrom, Tanev and Toffoli all walk I would want to see us do something better than this to upgrade the team.

[Ilya Mikheyev]

52 minutes ago, Rick Blight said:

I think you are understating the trade a little. After your proposed trade the Canucks will have lost Markstrom, Tanev, Toffoli and Gaudette from their playoff roster. Those players will be replaced by Johnson, Cernak, Coburn and Greiss/Talbot. While I would love to have Cernak I just don't see how this would make us a better team than the one we iced this year. If we are going to let Markstrom, Tanev and Toffoli all walk I would want to see us do something better than this to upgrade the team.

Fair enough.

 

After watching Cernak a fair amount this playoffs, I see him as a pretty major upgrade on Tanev (and I liked Tanev a lot and thought he had a great playoff). Cernak makes the team tougher for 20ish minutes a night. As good as Hughes-Tanev were, they were also on for a decent # of GAs vs. Vegas. He's also younger and could still improve, so 'asset management' wise I see him as a good pick-up as well. Hughes is gonna only be better this year too

 

Johnson to me is a better fit for the Horvat line than Tofu. I would STRONGLY PREFER for Eriksson to move on and the Canucks could keep Tofu plus acquire one more top-6 LW. But I think Horvat needs someone on his line who creates a lot of offensive opportunities, and I see him someone like Johnson or Mikael Granlund being better suited for the line than Tof if the Canucks can only chose one. Plus Johnson can slip in the 3rd C position and give the Canucks a third offensive threat. However, I really like Tofu too so if that's the route Benning goes I'll be happy. Who knows, maybe he can continue the pace he started with last season when he's fully healthy

 

Gaudette had a OK season but wasn't super effective in the playoffs. I think the Canucks would benefit just as much from a decent forward who is a bit more physical, like Bobby Ryan or another UFA/small trade. I don't see it as a huge loss

 

Markstrom is obviously a huge loss- and I hope Benning can find a way to get him on a decent contract.

 

 

[Patel Bure]

3 hours ago, Teemu Selänne said:

Proposal

To Tampa Bay

Kole Lind

Adam Gaudette's rights

Guillaume Brisebois' rights

 

To Vancouver

Tyler Johnson

Erik Cernak's rights

Braydon Coburn

 

Bottom line: Tampa Bay is in what many hockey analysts are calling "cap hell." They have 76 million locked up to just 15 players and have to sign....wait for it....Coleman, Cirelli, Cernak, Sergachev and have only 3 D locked up otherwise. They need to clear space. Tyler Johnson appears to the be prime candidate to be on his way out. While Gaudette is a major downgrade from Johnson, he's got a good cost-benefit analysis and could eat up some sheltered minutes for Cooper.  Canucks need an upgrade/replacement for Tanev next to Hughes. Cernak may be the best, reasonable fit (like...not Ekblad but better than Tanev), in the league. The 6'3, 233 pound, right-sided defender has been playing on the 'top shutdown pairing' for the team poised the win the cup at the age of 23. Tyler Johnson is a playoff vet who still produces at a .5 PPG clip despite averaging well under 15 mins a game. He can play all 3 forward positions well, and the point on the powerplay. His versatility and exp. is a perfect for a team that has younger players slotting in and battling for spots. While his offensive #s have taken a hit this playoffs, he's playing behind a stacked forward crew and is actually 2nd on the team in points per 60 mins played 5-on-5. He also has 49 hits in 23 games, because he elevates his game in the playoffs- remember his 2015 and 2016 runs where he had 40 points in 43 games, incl. 20 goals. From T-Bay's perspective, he's a cap hit that must be moved. He has a NTC so probably wants to stay with a competitive team; he's also from the PNW.

 

Misc.:

• Bolts clear up to 6.7 million with this trade
• Sergachev appears extremely confident he will re-sign in Tampa
• Benning might have some relationship with Brisebois based on the JT Miller cap dump
• Kole Lind and Breeze gives this waiver ineligible depth- badly needed for a team that isn't gonna be able to afford much depth this off-season
• It's my belief that Horvat badly needs a 2-way responsible winger who can GENERATE offense on his line. Pearson is a great 3rd line winger who can step up but offensively he's riding the coattails of Bo, not creating. This was esp. true when he had 0 points (other than a empty net goal and empty net assist) in the last 11 playoff games this year
• Coburn is washed up, but he and Benn could compete for the 7th D spot next year - altho Coburn is LHD, he has exp playing both sides
• Johnson gives the Canucks more PP options- which got predictable and shutdown against Vegas. At least he'll breathe life into the 2nd unit
• Kole Lind & Cal Foote are former Kelowna teammates
• With Chatfield, Rafferty, Juolevi & Benn ahead of him on the depth chart, Brisebois is probably not gonna make the cut with Vancouver this year anyway
• Johnson can also slip into the 3rd line C position and give the Canucks a third offensive threatening line
• While this does not provide the Canucks with the BIG step up they need on D to be a cup contender this year, I think it's an improvement on the team's general 2-way play, and the Canucks will have some natural breakout improvement with Hughes another year deep, and Juolevi replacing Fanta.
• I see this is somewhat similar to the Ehrhoff trade of 2009- no picks or top-ranked propects were moved in a team stuck in a bad cap spot

 

Possible cap compliant line-up:

 

Miller (5.25) - Pettersson (3.8) - Boeser (5.875)

Johnson (5) - Horvat (5.5) - Virtanen (2.75)

Pearson (3) - Sutter (4.375) - UFA/(Bobby Ryan?Caggiula?Maroon?) (1.4)

Motte (1.75) - Beagle (3) - Eriksson (6)

MacEwen or Bailey (800k - 1.4)

 

LTIR: Ferland, Dumped separately: Baer  Buyout: Roussel

 

Hughes (1.6) - Cernak (4.2)

Edler (6) - Myers (6)

Juolevi (.863) - Stech/UFA (Bogosian??) (2)

Coburn (1.7), Chatfield (.750)

 

Minors: Benn (still 975,000 against cap)

 

Demmer (1.05)

Greiss/MAF/Talbot (3.6)

 

Total cap hit: 81.5 (incl. Spooner & Luongo)

 

Obviously there's some room for changes here, but just one way it could work. If Eriksson is somehow moved or retires there's also a lot more flexibility

 

Thoughts?

 

Sounds like a good plan for the short term (next season), but taking on Tyler Johnson's contract beyond next season seems like it would lead to a ton of cap problems for us.    

 

As far as back-ups go, I wonder if Ryan Miller would be willing to come back here on a one year deal if we walk from Markstrom?

 

 

Edited September 26, 2020 by DarkIndianRises

[Down by the River]

I'm sure it would suck to go back to the pre-cap days where the Rangers just bought every over-priced UFA, but it also kind of sucks for teams that do such a great job developing talent only to lose that talent because it can't all bit fit under the cap. Teams get penalized for drafting well or being too good at developing players. 

 

I would love to see a cap discount where drafted players' salaries count are only with .75 cap dollars. Like if you signed Petey to a 10x10 deal it would actually only be 7.5x10.

 

Like Brayden Point came out of nowhere (well not really, because his numbers in junior were crazy good, but NHL scouts didn't think he'd be an allstar). Its hard for a team to plan for that. So large contracts get offered to vets and then when certain prospects produce beyond expectation it becomes difficult to fit everything under the cap. Reward teams for developing talent.

Edited September 26, 2020 by Down by the River

[JeremyCuddles]

3 hours ago, BPA said:

Johnson and Coburn have NTC.  So they can dictate if they want to stay or go.

 

TB most moveable assets are Point and Killorn (M-NTC).

 

They can get a kings ransom for Point.  I'm sure they can also trade Killorn for a good return. 

 

Don't see why Johnson and Coburn wouldn't want to come to a safe country to play on a team on the rise. The real issue is whether or not we'd be better off offersheeting Cernak instead of taking in so much cap. All the players we're bringing in on this deal are gonna eat the cap we have remaining. Not sure I wanna run Demko as a full time starter just yet. But it is a high risk high reward play. Just wouldn't wanna be Benning if it blows up and Demko isn't ready. 

[BPA]

2 minutes ago, N7Nucks said:

Don't see why Johnson and Coburn wouldn't want to come to a safe country to play on a team on the rise. The real issue is whether or not we'd be better off offersheeting Cernak instead of taking in so much cap. All the players we're bringing in on this deal are gonna eat the cap we have remaining. Not sure I wanna run Demko as a full time starter just yet. But it is a high risk high reward play. Just wouldn't wanna be Benning if it blows up and Demko isn't ready. 

Well TB is up 3-1 in the Stanley Cup finals.  And if they do win, I would imagine that they (Johnson and Coburn) would want to stay for a chance to repeat. 

 

[JeremyCuddles]

2 minutes ago, BPA said:

Well TB is up 3-1 in the Stanley Cup finals.  And if they do win, I would imagine that they (Johnson and Coburn) would want to stay for a chance to repeat. 

 

True, true. Johnson likely doesn't get moved until next offseason at the earliest. Once his full NTC becomes a minor NTC. Still wouldn't count us out completely. Good team, good city, safe country.  

[Silky mitts]

3 hours ago, BPA said:

Johnson and Coburn have NTC.  So they can dictate if they want to stay or go.

 

TB most moveable assets are Point and Killorn (M-NTC).

 

They can get a kings ransom for Point.  I'm sure they can also trade Killorn for a good return. 

 

No way they would ever move point