I feel sick about this trade. Schneider was the future of this team and was going to carry the Canucks on his back. He is going to be a consistent Vezina nominee. All that time spent developing Cory just traded away so we can spend a bunch more time developing another player.
I'm a giant Lu fan. He is my favourite goalie of all time...But man, this was Schneiders team. And what makes this even worse is I feel NJ stole him. We couldn't even get an NHL ready player to go along with that 9th pick? Seriously Gillis?
I think the potential is there, but a lot of goalies have started their careers hot and disappeared. This is great asset management. We are deep in goal, so we traded are depth in goal to stock pile our other needs.
that's not what asset management is........
I think that is more frustrating then the trade itself right now, listening to all the derps throw around a term they don't seem to understand.
When you trade a developed, closer to sure thing for something undeveloped you want an additional generation from you return - if not you are essentially just spinning your wheels. Just think about the theory -- so in 5 years are we going to trade Bo for another top 10 pick and continue the cycle? You need to generate value. Our value here was simply getting below the cap DUE TO MISMANAGEMENT
Did we fulfill a need? Yes.
Was it handled (assets managed) well? No. We waited too long, flip flopped, got ourselves into a position of weakness and then got no additional return on our investment.
I am a big Schneider fan and I think he could of been our franchise goalie. So no I do not like the trade. Hopefully in 5 years Horvat will become the Bergeron that some people are touting(unrealistic expectation IMO) and I'll change my mind.
And yes I realize our hands were pretty much tied but it almost feels like we gave a star goalie away.
People are also assuming Schneider will be a star. He hasn't proved that yet.
Likewise the naysayers are assuming Horvat will be a nothing addition. Anyone making predictions based on assumptions is rather silly, and that goes for both sides of the opinion. That's the whole point of the draft... you're looking at potential. You're looking at the unseeable future and making a bet that it will benefit your team. Its a tough job. Either way, right now its a good compromise to a difficult situation and the team should be better for it.
By now you would think that everything that can be said about Luongo's contract has been said. However this post might contain a few points that have not been made too often.
As we know, Lu has 9 years left on his contract. The cap hit is $5.3 million per year but the actual payout is $6.7 million per year for the next six years. He is currently 34 years old.
A few goaltenders have played well up to age 40 or 41 but that is rare. A GM has to base his decisions on reasonable expectations, not on wildly optimistic projections. A reasonalbe expectation, going on overall averages, is that Luongo could be a good starting goaltender for another 3 years -- up to age 37. Maybe he gets one extra year. After that he probably reverts to being a backup.
A team that picks up his contract gets a good starting goalie for probably 3 years at a cap hit of 5.3 and a payout of 6.7 -- not great value, but not bad. However, the team then has a backup with a cap hit of 5.3 and a payout of 6.7 for three more years -- which is bad, very bad. Even if the split is 4 and 2 it is still bad. And then there is still another 3 year liability with a cap hit of 5.3, although Luongo will probably retire after 6 years (at age 40) rather than play the final 3 years of the contract. This retirement will trigger a modest but not trivial penalty of about 1.6 million per year for three years.
Ask yourself if any GM would sign Luongo to that contract if he was a free agent. The answer is almost certainly "no". Same thing applies to waivers. Bottom line: If the Canucks want to trade Luongo they will have to give up extra value, not get value in return. And he will not be picked up on waivers. Furthermore, there is a good chance he would not go on waivers at all as he would have to waive his no-trade clause and might not want to risk ending up somewhere he does not want to go.
There is no "conspiracy" among GMs to avoid trading for Luongo to force the Canucks to buy him out and make him available for a more reasonable contract.That makes no sense. It would help one GM (who picked up Luongo cheap) and hurt the others. But every GM is trying to do the best he can for his team. And no conspiracy is needed. His contract is very unnattractive.
If MG turned down any positive offer last summer he made a mistake (and I am not sure I believe there was a genuine positive offer). In any case, Luongo is less valuable now than he was then as another crucial year of his prime is gone. Maybe he was worth a small positive return last summer, but not now.
A compliance buyout right now commits the Canucks to 1.5 million per year for 18 years, but no cap hit. The present value of that is not bad -- only about half of the liability if the Canucks do not buy him out.
If the Canucks are trying to maximize the chances of winning, the best thing they can do is buy him out. Anything else, like trade Schneider, will reduce the chances of winning because the Canucks will be stuck with an expensive aging goaltender.
I still cannot believe MG offered this contract. On the economics it is a terrible contract -- and it went against so many things MG said before and after.