Jump to content
The Official Site of the Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Community

nuckfanfromafrica

Members
  • Posts

    91
  • Joined

  • Last visited

2 Followers

Recent Profile Visitors

1,389 profile views

nuckfanfromafrica's Achievements

Junior Prospect

Junior Prospect (1/14)

162

Reputation

  1. Aman is a good prospect and a good call up prospect. He had a good surprising rookie year. An acquisition of Blueger & Oskar makes him a bit redundant. Aaty has a higher ceiling offensively and playmaking. Adjusted stats indicates Aaty is the superior player.
  2. Agreed. Kuzmenko and Mikheyev have earned their respective spots. The line composition are based more on having balance through out the line up. Both insulating a big young centerman in Raty. Mikheyev providing veteran defensive presence and forecheck. Kuzmenko adding scoring punch. Pettersson has the pedigree of carrying a line. Much improved Pods & Hogs. Both had a down sophmore year. They have the making of a future dominant line if given the time to mature together. The team needs an infusion of youth in more prominent roles.
  3. I’ve been really impressed with the moves, Alvin & co, have made so far this offseason - they've shown restraint by not overpaying on dollars & term in free Agency. The moves have been calculated, forward looking and aimed at not cap strapping the team in the near future. I hope they remain discipline and stay the course. Chasing sexy acquisitions like, Brett Pesce & co, appear enticing however is shortsighted. Reasons been: Recency bias: team structure and environment can at times over inflate the effectiveness of that same player on a different team. Comes with a high degree of risk that may become a huge anchor. Ex Messier acquisitions like this at this time will require giving up huge assets (1ST round pick(s), Top tier prospects). Assets that will be on attractive entry level contracts to balance out higher ticket items. The contract and/or extension eats up a huge portion of the team salary cap without necessarily putting the team over the top. This hampers the ability of the team to build a strong supporting cast. Pettersson, Hronek, Kuzmenko etc will require big extensions shortly. Cap space management will be key to maintaining a quality team moving forward. Generally competitive teams are built around elite Goaltending or tandem, elite Center, Elite Dman, and quality complementary depth that are above average in their respective roles. All these recent Championship teams (Vegas, Colorado, Tampa, LA) had that. Quality depth requires strong internal prospect development program. Teams lacking this, require cap flexibility to acquire the necessary depth to contend. Teams that struggle to get over the hump tend to be teams that are heavily committed to just a few big ticket items and not enough cap to ice above average quality complimentary pieces. Ex Toronto, Edmonton etc. The stated objective of this Management were: Drafting well and developing prospects Getting heavier and bigger Revamping D having quality depth both on team and in the farm clearing cap space and continuing to be efficient with cap management moving forward That said some prudent moves IMHO will be: 1. Target David Savard (6’1” 234lbs RD) via trade: On a reasonably contract for another 2yrs and in line with our recent Dman signings. Scouting Report: A prototypical defensive defenseman, he is reliable in a shutdown role but will not contribute much offense. Moves the puck well and is a rugged, fearless shot blocker who will get in front of anything. He was never fast and figures to lose a little bit of speed now that he is on the far side of 30, but remains capable of playing 20-plus minutes per game. He fills that complementary role alongside an elite puckmoving defenseman like Hughes at a fraction of the cost without a significant drop in productivity. Adds the stated goal of added toughness, 5v5 & special teams defense. The added savings from slightly similar production can be used to balance out the rest of the line number with everyone falling in line. Trade bait Anthony Beauvillier, Jack Rathbone & 2024 4th (Min). MTL acquires a younger puck mover that can develop with their young core along with a serviceable forward that they can flip at the deadline. In addition to the complementary intangibles that Savard adds to the team, Vancouver also clears cap space that is required to activate Tanner off LIR and opens up roster space for a young entry level prospects 2. Sign a Veteran Versatile Right shot Center/Winger on a 1yr deal Target: Oskar Sundqvist (Swede) C/RW 6’3” 220 Scouting Report The towering Swedish forward has great size and he knows how to use it to play a consistent physical game. Is fearless despite a couple of major injuries during his NHL career, and is more than willing to sacrifice his body in order to win. Is not a gifted offensive player but can produce enough points to be useful in a bottom-six forward role. Can play either wing or center Roster Composition Feature key prospects (Hoglander, Podkolzin, Raty) in prominent roles. Roll 4 balance lines. A rugged line that can inject energy and forecheck Line of the future to build chemistry and repetition A rugged line that can inject energy and forecheck Keep Myers (on a contract year) Special Teams Penalty kill options at Tail end: Pettersson & Miller. Suggested additions:
  4. Extract from Sportsnet. Boudreau said he believes the team is better, due to the speed and skill added on the wings, and offered some hints about how players may be deployed. • He likes the idea of rolling out J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat and Elias Pettersson at centre, rather than using Pettersson on the wing, because there are now enough talented wingers to build a top-nine that can score. • Boudreau confirmed that elite defenceman Quinn Hughes will switch to the right side from the left, at least for training camp, potentially beside Oliver Ekman-Larsson on a new top pairing. • He wants to better manage the workload of star goalie Thatcher Demko, who played in 64 games last season before breaking down in April, but that this will depend on how well backup goalie Spencer Martin plays. “I think Petey can play with anybody,” Boudreau said of Pettersson, who moved between lines and positions last season while scoring 28 goals and 56 points under the new coach. “I think he's proved that he can play any type of game. Like, I watched all these games again this summer, and. . . he's a physical player. You know, he hits. When he killed penalties, he was good at it. The offensive stuff takes care of itself. I still think the sky's the limit if he's healthy.” Boudreau said by playing Pettersson at centre, even if it’s theoretically on the third line, one of Pettersson, Horvat or Miller is going to get an advantageous matchup. “I think it's easy to say that no one's going to be classified as really a third-line player because most of them are going to be on the power play,” he said. “Our third line last year was Tyler Motte, Juho Lammikko and Matthew Highmore. They would kill penalties, but their role (at even strength) was to make sure the other team didn't score. And they did a great job at it. But I think this year's so-called third line is going to be asked to score. “There's a lot of rolling parts here. Believe me when I say I've gone over it 5,000 times this summer.” Denied an extension by new general manager Patrik Allvin and president Jim Rutherford, Boudreau will be coaching the final season of the two-year deal he signed with Canucks owner Francesco Aquilini in December. After sharp year-end remarks by Rutherford about the Canucks’ “structure” under Boudreau and how poorly the team exited its defensive zone, the coach has only the same defencemen to work with. Allvin landed Mikheyev from the Toronto Maple Leafs and Kuzmenko from the Kontinental Hockey League, but failed in his stated mission to upgrade the defence over the summer. “You know what, I think they're really underrated,” Boudreau said of his blue line group. “I've worked in my head and on video a lot on that, and we'll be better (at zone exits). Yeah, we want great exits. Everybody does. At the same time, I'd rather be great defending. I think in the last 57 games we were the third-best defensive team. We might have scrambled a little bit but we protected ourselves off of mistakes and we had good goaltending. And I'm not going to apologize for good goaltending.”
  5. The idea was more predicated on creating a balanced line composition based on: Team defense (not your traditional 1 or 2 offensive line, a checking line & energy line). A top 9 that can score and defend equally. Best defense is based on possession not a checking line pinned in their zone for entirety of their shift. Each line features at least 2 defensively responsible forwards, player with speed to push play offensively & cover defensively). at least a true playmaker on each line Pettersson is most dangerous when he is the alpha and has the puck on his stick pushing play on his line. He has the ability to make his line mates better. His defensive awareness along with Mikheyev's fit within that idea of atleast 2 defensively responsible forwards. Hoglander has an extremely underrated offensive skill, playmaking ability, creativity that complements Pettersson nicely. He has the speed to keep up with Mik & Petey. The line is a continuation of Podz - Petey - Hogz line with Podz moving to Millers line to add more balance. Podkolzin & Garland are your 2 defensively responsible forwards on Millers line that are able to get back on D with speed and tenacity. Miller as your alpha on the line and Garland as your second playmaker. Kuzmenko as your true playmaker on Horvat & Boeser's line. He brings an element that we have missed for a while - ability to setup plays from behind the net. Horvat around the crease and Boeser on the wing ready to accept setups. i like Pearson and think he is a good player. He just unfortunately lacks speed. We just have more forward depth now and ability to earn a spot should not be based on salary. I personally think Dickinson (sp) is a better fit if he has a bounce back season. Our defense will be better with right forward deployment that fits within the team defense mantra - retaining possession (less dump & chase), forwards supporting Dmen when without the puck and on breakouts for better zone control & exits. Mobile Defense with puck mover on each D pair.
  6. Boeser will have a breakout year on a line with Horvat & Kuzmenko
  7. Similarly also believe in developing pairs with complementary forward. Each line has speed, defensively responsible and playmaking ability with finish. My pairs would be: 1. Horvat and Boeser with Complementary forward Kuzmenko Boeser has the best chemistry with Horvat. His best statistical performance 5v5 was when he was on a line with Baertschi - Horvat. Other that the lotto line (which was more of a factor of Pettersson & J.T performance and Boeser a passenger), He had his best statistical performance 5v5 with Horvat. Horvat provides the bull net drive that created room for Boeser to use his shot and Baertschi added playmaking on the wing. One weakness of the line was Baertschi's weakness on the walls (Board battle/play). Kuzmenko adds speed, strength on the wall, playmaking on the wing and most importantly ability to setup from behind the net with options to pass to from the crease (Horvat) and above the crease from either the left or right side (Boeser). Boesers best GF% last season was on a line with Horvat at 56.6%. 2. Miller and Garland with complementary forward Podkolzin Miller is most effective when he is driving the bus on a line. Its not surprising that he had his best statistically performance at center last season. Garland adds playmaking from the wing, ability to setup from behind the net (play that worked a few times with Podkolzin). With Millers tendency at times to give up on plays at times, is made up for the relentless none stop engines of Podkolzin & Garland. Of all the line combinations 5v5 from last season that Miller played on with the best GF% (62.1 & 58.4%) featured some combination of Miller with Garland Or Miller & Podkolzin. Stats below 3. Pettersson - Hoglander with complementary forward in Mikheyev. Mikheyev adds defensive presence and speed to creates space for Hoglanders & Pettersson east-west puck possession game. Similar to Miller, Pettersson is most effective when he is driving a line and not deferring (Miller & Boeser). In their brief time together, Podkolzin- Pettersson-Hoglander, showed promise. Mikheyev replaces Podkolzin essentially on that line (adding similar qualities in feistiness). Other than the paring with Horvat & Pearson, Hoglander's best GF% last season was on a pair that featured Pettersson at 59.6%, 59.4%. 4. Lazar - Joshua with complementary rotating forward Lockwood, Pearson & Dickinson Two Centerman - one Right & other left that can also play forward on corresponding sides. an identity line that can be hard on the forecheck, creating energy and turnovers. The success of the Lammiko(sp)-Motte-Highmore line last season was the ability of the line (mostly Motte) to get in on the forecheck with speed. The added need of speeds puts Lockwood & Dickinson in a better position thus unfortunately leaving Pearson as odd man out. Lazar & Joshua have the making of 2 Motte's on the forecheck. Lazars best GF% with Boston was on a line with Nosek at 70.4%. Joshua has better statistical trajectory than Nosek. IMHO...other complementary defensive combination and optimization of our roster this season is also outlined in this thread below:
  8. I believe Allvin and co have done an excellent job so far this offseason with their astute forward additions. Their ability to be patience by not making rushed decisions to simply trade away pieces for ones that are not much more better than what we currently have, IMHO the team as currently composed (abide could always be better) , is a playoff team if deployed the right way. Our success this coming season hinges primarily on coaching decisions made related to: Defensive & Forward line composition and deployment Team 5v5 Strategy Power play strategy Pk Strategy Below are some of the ways we could maximize the current roaster without necessarily selling the farm chasing a Right shot defenseman that is not much more better than what we have in Myers (they are generally drafted and developed in house). Team Composition on Defense A. Move Quinn Hughes to Right D When you look at most historical successful teams (2021 Colorado Avalanche, Tampa Bay lighting, Detroit in the mid-90s), the talents come first. The talents were developed and put in the best position to utilize their natural talent. Each one of those teams featured a top talented defenseman. Some with size (Hedman, Pronger) and some not so much (Makar, Fox, Niedermayer). The common theme was that each played to their strengths and were deployed as such. The true top defensemen have the ability to make their pairing partners better (elevating their value that may not have been same if paired on a top unit elsewhere - Devon Teows, Rutta etc). New age top defenseman no longer have to have the size that was imperative in the clutch & grab era. They need elite skating, puck skills, elite edgework, playmaking/passing skill, puck transitioning skills. smarts defensively that is based on body position thus limiting the need to be towering. Vancouver has the luxury of potentially having one in Quinn Hughes if developed and deployed the right way. A look at some defensemen in the statue of Hughes reveals a common theme. Most are effective playing their offwing (Scott Niedermayer). The ones playing their right side (Makar) have a propensity to default to their offwings while transitioning the puck or in the offensive zone. A player playing this offwing provides him the below advantages: When he cuts east-west across the ice, it's easier to protect the puck. The puck is protected more easily on your forehand as you cut east-west (laterally). A right handed Dman cutting off the right wall on entry will have to pull the puck to his backhand in order to protect the puck from the stick of opposing defenders/forwards. It's easier to shoot high percentage shots: When you carry or pass the puck east-west in the offensive zone, the goalie has to constantly adjust to puck movement thus increasing chances of scoring. Defenseman playing their natural shooting side is best suited for a north-south play. A highly skilled rover type defenseman, like Quinn Hughes, is best suited playing his offside. The Video samples below of some other top defenseman in transition illustrates some of the above. Cale Makar, even though he is playing his rightside, drifts majority of the time to his offside (left wing as a right shot defenseman). Most of his dangle plays are made from the left side. B. Pair your best 2 Dman and deploy with most offensive starts: some examples are Colorado pair of Toews - Makar and Vancouver 2011 team pair of Edler - Erhoff(sp) OEL (contrary to popular believe) is still an effective 2 way defenseman whose skill sets complements Hughes quite nicely. A stay at home right shot physical Dman is not necessarily the best complement for Hughes. An ideal defensive partner is one with smarts, ability to read plays, good positionally (not necessarily physical nor one with towering size). Take Colorado's top pair as an example These were qualities that made Tanev effective with Hughes. OEL is a highly underrated Dman with smarts in spades to read plays that complements a highly skilled Dman. OEL ,even though he was played in a more defensive role this last season, still projects as a top pairing Dman whose numbers are not that far off from Toews. This is also in spite of him facing more higher quality of competition with way less offensive deployment as shown below. Additionally (although a limited sample), a pairing of OEL & Hughes last season had a significantly better GF% 5v5 compared to a Hughes/Schenn & Myers pair(s). With more offensive deployments this coming season, a pair of OEL-Hughes has the potential to statistically rival some of the top pairings in the league. C. Retain Myers (target a 2 way Left Dman with preferably size instead): Myers is a north-south offensive defenseman and should be used as such, He is at his best when he is moving, joining the rush and using his shot. He has a mean streak at times when separating forwards from pucks. However he shouldn't be cast as a shut down stay home defenseman. Myers has better statistically numbers than a lot of the popular trade targets. Focus should be attempting to acquire a left shot 2way defenseman from a cap strapped team like Vegas. Ideal target would be Nicloas Hague via trade from Vegas Perhaps a package involving Dermott. These paring would add size (affording the team the ability to have 2 smaller skaters in Quinn & Rattbone. D. add Rathbone as third paring puck mover paired with a stay home D (Poolman with Schenn subbing in some games) General Synopsis on defense: No shut down D pair. instead a 5 man team defense. This has been bolstered with most of the new forward additions. A top pairing defensive unit that are highly mobile and transitional. Each Dman can transition the puck out Other 2 defensive pair each has a puck move. Employing quick transition out of the d zone meaning less team spent defending (a system used by top teams like Colorado, Tampa, NYR etc). full defense Forward team composition and strategy Employ an aggressive forward forecheck that requires rolling 4 aggressive lines. Duo with a forechecker that is strong along the boards. Aggressive attacking style that is based on quick transitions, immediate counter attack, puck possession speed on each line each forward line & complementary primary D pairing have at minimal 2 play drivers (whether on the wings, center and/or backend) allowing for quicker breakouts and transition, A. Miller and Garland with complementary forward Podkolzin Miller is most effective when he is driving the bus on a line. Its not surprising that he had his best statistically performance at center last season. Garland adds playmaking from the wing, ability to setup from behind the net (play that worked a few times with Podkolzin). With Millers tendency at times to give up on plays at times, is made up for the relentless none stop engines of Podkolzin & Garland. Of all the line combinations 5v5 from last season that Miller played on with the best GF% (62.1 & 58.4%) featured some combination of Miller with Garland Or Miller & Podkolzin. Stats below conceptually similar to The forward & D paring strengthens the overall team defense that might be lacking otherwise. 3 defensively aware forwards complementing a puck mover in Rathbone, Forechecker: Podkolzin B. Pettersson - Hoglander with complementary forward in Mikheyev. Mikheyev adds defensive presence and speed to creates space for Hoglanders & Pettersson east-west puck possession game. Similar to Miller, Pettersson is most effective when he is driving a line and not deferring (Miller & Boeser). In their brief time together, Podkolzin- Pettersson-Hoglander, showed promise. Mikheyev replaces Podkolzin essentially on that line (adding similar qualities in feistiness). Other than the paring with Horvat & Pearson, Hoglander's best GF% last season was on a pair that featured Pettersson at 59.6%, 59.4% Hague & Myers add size along with tenacity from Mikheyev that allows Petty & Nils to play bigger. Conceptually (not stylistically) similar to Complementary piece: Mikheyev. his speed drawing defenders back allowing for a east-west movement play from Pettersson & Hoglander. C. Horvat and Boeser with Complementary forward Kuzmenko Boeser has the best chemistry with Horvat. His best statistical performance 5v5 was when he was on a line with Baertschi - Horvat. Other that the lotto line (which was more of a factor of Pettersson & J.T performance and Boeser a passenger), He had his best statistical performance 5v5 with Horvat. Horvat provides the bull net drive that created room for Boeser to use his shot and Baertschi added playmaking on the wing. One weakness of the line was Baertschi's weakness on the walls (Board battle/play). Kuzmenko adds speed, strength on the wall, playmaking on the wing and most importantly ability to setup from behind the net with options to pass to from the crease (Horvat) and above the crease from either the left or right side (Boeser). Boesers best GF% last season was on a line with Horvat at 56.6%. D. feisty Worker/Grinding line Lazar - Joshua with complementary rotating forward Lockwood, Pearson & Dickinson Two Centerman - one Right & other left that can also play forward on corresponding sides. an identity line that can be hard on the forecheck, creating energy and turnovers. The success of the Lammiko(sp)-Motte-Highmore line last season was the ability of the line (mostly Motte) to get in on the forecheck with speed. The added need of speeds puts Lockwood & Dickinson in a better position thus unfortunately leaving Pearson as odd man out. Lazar & Joshua have the making of 2 Motte's on the forecheck. Lazars best GF% with Boston was on a line with Nosek at 70.4%. Joshua has better statistical trajectory than Nosek. Full projected forward line up Some samples of top team deployments (that play a similar system that align with the vision of coaching/management team) from this past season: Colorado Tampa Rangers Power play & PK to follow...
  9. This offseason is a critically defining moment that sets the tone and direction of the team moving forward. Key team priorities and needs moving into the draft & free agency are: Create some cap flexibility to resign core player(s) in the near future add a franchise/super star player on a short term deal to bridge the gap until core is fully ready add gritty defenseman add center depth & versatile forwards add to prospect pool Change/define identity Below are some prudent moves to make: Trades: Main Trade: Why: Miller is a great player in his own right. However committing an 8yr term would be a contract that will not age well thus handcuffing the team in the future. Miller although is a great player however is a strong personality that overshadows the room and team play on the ice. The team goes as Miller goes. When on his game, he is dominate but when he is off his game can be quite lazy on plays. Miller in my opinion is not a franchise player that you commit significant cap space and term to. By no means is Miller a distraction in the room but this move could give more voice future younger core. Could have a similar effect to when Matt Duchen(sp) was traded from Colorado. Return: 5th pick in 2022 first & Scott Laughton .6'1 190 C/LW Other Secondary Trades for future cap space: Tanner Pearson and Travis Dermott become a bit redundant with addition of Laughton & promotion of Rathbone. Team adds some draft picks and futures. Don't trade at this time: Tyler Myers - Patience is key here. trading him will create a further hole on the Right side. Additionally not much in free Agency that would be a big upgrade from what he currently provides without handcuffing the team in the future i.e Josh Manson. Myers is an offensive defenseman that should be let loose to roam. Pairing him with a true defensive defenseman will up his value, effectiveness and production. Including next season, he is only on the books for another 3 seasons as oppose to an over inflated free agent Dman with significantly more term. Tucker Poolman: Patience again, Similarly cost of replacing him at this time in free agency is a lateral move. His underlying numbers when utilized properly are actually decent. Draft in First round Free Agent Signing 1. Evgeni Malkin C 2yr @ 8.5million AAV Add a Superstar on a short term deal (Sundin effect). Easily replaces Millers production. Vs Miller 2. Chris Tierney 2yr @ $1.8million AAV 3. Ben Chiarot 3yr @ $3 - $3.5 milllion AAV 4. Riley Nash C/LW 1yr at $750k 5. Cedric Paquette C/LW/RW 1yr @ $750k Projected team & Cap going into the Season
  10. Great work OP. Was going to do one later in the offseason. Agree on your analysis of team needs: 1. Defense (Top 4 minute eating Right shot) 2. Top 9 Wingers (Left wingers/C depth) 3. 3C match-up with Penalty Killing/Face off % (speed and scoring support) 4. Overall Team Size/Grit 5. Cost effective contracts and/or low risk + high reward players i would add that we need star power from a revenue stand point and bringing excitement back to the market. Example McDavid & Draisaitl in Edmonton, Matthews & Marner in Tor, etc. the below offseason moves would instantly give use a balanced, electrifying dominate payoff team that has a bit of everything. Team has number 1 center, Dman, Goaltender and supporting cast. Trades: 1. J.T Miller to Rangers/ Filip Chytil(C/LW) & Kaapo Kakko (RFA Rights) & Braden Schneider (RD) to Vancouver resign Kakko Kaapo to a bridge contract (3yr $3million per contract) move allows us to get young, add potential future top 4minute RD, size, cost effective contract and low risk + high reward players & grit 2. Brock Boeser (RFA Rights) to Islanders/ Oliver Wahlstrom (C/RW) & Aatu Raty to Vancouver replace Boeser shot with Wahlstrom with better speed. 3. Tanner Pearson & Tucker Poolman & Pick (3rd) to Flyers/ Scott Laughton (C/LW) to Vancouver defensive forward that provides scoring support. 4. Tyler Myers for a later pick (or prospect with size: Kevin Bahl) 5. Jason Dickinson for later pick or futures Signings: 1. Evgeni Malkin (C/LW)to 2yr $9.5million per star power (Malkin & Pettersson & demko etc), size & skill. Malkin steps out of Crosby's shadow. 2. Nick Paul (C/LW) to 2yr @ $2million per 3. Josh Manson (RD) to 3-4yrs @ $4.5 - $5million per Top 4 minute eating Right shot with size, physicality & grit 4. Ben Chiarot (LW/RD) to 3yrs @ $4.5million per Top 4 minute eating Right shot. Penalty killing ace. 5. Third String Goaltender: Resign: Matthew Highmore, William Lockwood, Jack Rathbone, Juho Lammikko (depth) Entry level/AHL depth: Linus Karlsson, Arvid Costmar ROSTER SIZE SALARY CAP CAP HIT OVERAGES BONUSES CAP SPACE 23 $81,500,000 $78,658,334 $0 $2,087,500 $2,841,666 Roster Left Wing Centre Right Wing Chytil, Filip $2,300,000 C, LW RFA - 1 Malkin, Evgeni $9,500,000 C UFA Wahlstrom, Oliver $894,167 RW, C RFA - 1 Garland, Conor $4,950,000 RW, LW UFA - 4 Pettersson, Elias $7,350,000 C, LW RFA - 2 Kakko, Kaapo $3,000,000 RW RFA Podkolzin, Vasily $925,000 LW, RW RFA - 2 Horvat, Bo $5,500,000 C UFA - 1 Höglander, Nils $891,667 LW, RW RFA - 1 Paul, Nicholas $2,000,000 C, LW UFA Laughton, Scott $3,000,000 C, LW UFA - 4 Highmore, Matthew $900,000 LW, RW RFA Lockwood, William $900,000 RW RFA Roster created at CapFriendly.com | Follow on Twitter @CapFriendly Left Defense Right Defense Goaltender Hughes, Quinn $7,850,000 LD UFA - 5 Manson, Josh $4,500,000 RD UFA Demko, Thatcher $5,000,000 G UFA - 4 Ekman-Larsson, Oliver $7,260,000 LD NMC UFA - 5 Schneider, Braden $925,000 RD RFA - 2 Martin, Spencer $762,500 G UFA - 2 Rathbone, Jack $1,000,000 LD RFA Chiarot, Ben $4,500,000 LD/RD UFA Dermott, Travis $1,500,000 LD/RD RFA - 1 Schenn, Luke $850,000 RD UFA - 1 Special Teams (Optional) Power Play 1 Malkin, E. Pettersson, E. Kakko, K. Hughes, Q. Ekman-Larsson, O. Power Play 2 Wahlstrom, O. Horvat, B. Podkolzin, V. Garland, C. Rathbone, J. Penalty Kill 1 Laughton, S. Paul, N. Chiarot, B. Schneider, B. Penalty Kill 2 Horvat, B. Pettersson, E. Ekman-Larsson, O. Schneider, B.
  11. Rick Dhaliwal @DhaliwalSports · Sep 30 Petersson could be 3 times 7.7M Hughes could be 6x7.75
  12. Gadjovich adds a dimension that the team has lacked for a while (Tomas Holmstrom type net presence). its not always about loading up skill on one line but balance and sustained pressure from every line that steps on the ice. I would personally like to see 3 top lines and a transitional line: Top 3 lines: Gadjovich - Pettersson - Hoglander (reminiscent of the Holmstrom - Datsyuk-Zetterberg Detroit line in terms of style). Podkolzin - Horvat - Boeser (Miller with Boeser doesn't work. Bo & Boeser is a better offensive tandem. Podkolzin adds strength on the wall that Pearson would have otherwise provided with the added playmaking skill and size) Pearson - Miller - Garland (2 veterans flanking Miller. Pearson complements the north-south Miller style with Garland adding the feisty skill making. Millers assertiveness will not dominate) Transitional / Blue collar line Lockwood(Motte) - Dickinson - Chiasson Highmore and/or Giuseppe/MacEwen as extra forward(s). Defense Olli over Rathbone because of roster defensive/pk left D need. Team has enough puck movers in OEL (LD), Hughes(LD), Myer(RD). Rathbone as first call up playing top line minutes in the A (asset management as doesn't require waiver). OEL - Poolman Hughes - Schenn (Hamonic***) Olli - Myers Brad Hunt (extra D if Hamonic opts out or teams goes with a 13forward 8 D format) 2 Balanced PP Units; Chiasson/Gadjovich(net presence) Garland(Left wall) Pettersson (Right Wall) Podkolzin(Bumper) OEL (Point shot) ________________________________________________________________________________________________ Bo Horvat (net presence/bumper position) Boeser(Left wall) J.T Miller (Right wall & right side of net) Hughes (rover/ bumper) Myers(Point shot) PK Units: Dickinson - Lockwood/Chiasson/Podkolzin/Pearson/Hoglander/Gadjovich OEL - Poolman/Myers /Schenn/Hamonic**** Bo/Miller - Lockwood/Chiasson/Podkolzin/Pearson/Hoglander/Gadjovich Olli - Myers/Poolman/Schenn/Hamonic*****
  13. Absolutely on 5v5. Miller tends to be a line driver with a big influence (stylistically) on whichever line he is one. Petey defers a lot to Miller when aligned together. Stepping away from his biggest strengths - his shot & possession game with give and goes. Petey and Miler are best served each driving heir own line 5v5 (Can be united on PP). Eye test below:
  14. Hockey is a strong link game - having your best players throughout your lineup increases the chances of winning. The default tendency is to load up a top line. In most cases, absolutely entertaining to watch with short term results. Unfortunately detrimental to prolonged team success. Statistically, a team's success rate is increased exponentially by spreading out talent across the line up. Playing team's best players across the line up elevates less-elite line mates. The Key however is to compose lines where playing styles mesh. Playing style combination yeilding the highest xG% and the lowest drop off in chain link from forward line 1 to 4 (variance), Example: Team Blue features line A xG% 55.4% line B xG% 55.0% Line C xG% 52.7% Line D xG% 48.9% Team Yellow features line A xG% 58.9% line B xG% 51.5% Line C xG% 48.9% Line D xG% 48.9% Even though Team Yellow's line A has the highest xG% on the top line, it has the lower probability of long term success, because of a bigger drop off (variance) from line to line. The most successful teams feature a high xG% on the top line and lowest variance from top line to bottom. 20-21 Edmonton Oilers (Team yellow): Connor McDavid - Leon Draisaitl 20-21 Tampa (Team Blue): Point - Kucherov, Stamkos-Cirelli, etc. The criteria used for this composition are as follows: 1. Playing Style (based on 5v5 play): Metric: a. Playmakers: CF% => 54.1% and xGF60 => 2.64 b. Shooter: 52.0% <= CF% < 54.1% and 2.51 <= xGF60 < 2.64 C. Balanced: 50.2% <= CF% < 52.0% and 2.35 <= xGF60 < 2.51 d. Dependent: CF% <= 45.6% and xGF60 < 2.02 Current Roster forward composition CF% and xGF60 (stat average over the last 3 seasons): Tanner Pearson (48.11%, 2.62) - falls within two playing styles depending on his position on ice (primarily a dependent & secondary a shooter). He tends to be dependent when lined up on the Left wing. Playing off wing as a RW he utilizes his shoot more. Video eye test below: Elias Pettersson (53.7%, 2.74) - fits as both a playmaker (when playing as a center) and a shooter playing the wing. Nils Hoglander (50.71%, 2.50) - limited sample size. fits into the dimension of balanced Bo Horvat (49.28%, 2.73) - fits primarily as a playmaker then secondary as a dependent. Boeser (51.2%, 2.54) - fits primarily as a shooter then secondary as balanced J.T. Miller (50.90%, 2.65) - fits primarily as a playmaker then secondarily as balanced Jason Dickinson (51.59%, 2.14) - fits primarily as balanced then secondary as dependent Conor Garland (59.06%, 2.55) - fits primarily as a shooter when playing RW and playmaker on the LW. Eye test video below: Brandon Sutter (44.42%, 2.10) - fits as a dependent Tyler Motte (42.51%, 2.14) - dependent Highmore (40.32%, 2.12) - dependent Zack Macewen (45.15%, 2.01%) Jonah Gadjovich (limited sample) - projects as a dependent Podkolzin (no sample) - projects primarily as a playmaker and secondarily as balanced. 2. Playing Style composition xG%: Probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics 5v5 expected goal. The line composition below are not based on LW-C-RW composition but more chemistry fit for each playing style. Metric 1. Playmaker - Playmaker - Playmaker = 58.9% 2. playmaker - Balance - Playmaker = 57.2% 3. playmaker - Playmaker - Shooter = 55.4% 4. playmaker - shooter - shooter = 55.1% 5. Balanced - playmaker - shooter = 55.0% 6. balanced - shooter - shooter = 54.7% 7. playmaker - dependent - playmaker = 54.5% 8. balanced - playmaker - balanced = 52.2% 9. dependent - shooter - shooter = 52.1% 10. balanced - balanced - balanced = 51.5% 11. balanced - balanced - shooter = 50.9% 12. dependent - playmaker - shooter = 50.3% 13. shooter - shooter - shooter = 50% 14. balanced - dependent - playmaker = 48.9% 15. balanced - dependent - shooter = 48.5% 16. Dependent - playmaker - dependent = 45.8% 17. balanced - balanced - dependent = 45.4% 18. depensent - shooter - dependent = 44.7% 19. balanced - dependent - dependent = 44.6% 20. dependent - dependent - dependent = 41.8% 3. Forward Roster composition based on the 2 above metrics: Alternative option: Line a: Pearson (LW) - Pettersson - Podkolzin (RW) 7. Dependent - playmaker - playmaker = 54.5% Line b: Miller (LW) - Dickinson - Garland (RW) 5. playmaker - Balanced - shooter = 55.0% Line c: Hoglander (LW) - Horvat - Boeser (RW) 5. balanced - playmaker - shooter = 55.0% Line d: Gadjovich (LW) - Sutter - Motte (RW) 20. dependent - dependent - dependent = 41.8% Extra forward on line d: Highmore & Macewen. Analysis: not much variance from line a - c. The average score for the top 3 lines is 54.83%. Weak link is line d. composition given that it comprises all forwards that are dependent. This line construction also adds the advantage of having a defensive presence on each line along with some grit whether on the wing or middle. Optimal option: Line a: Gadjovich (LW) - Pettersson - Garland (LW/RW) 7. Dependent - Playmaker - Playmaker = 54.5% Line b: Hoglander (LW) - Horvat - Boeser (RW) 5. Balanced - Playmaker - Shooter = 55.0% Line c: Pearson (LW) - J.T Miller - Podkolzin (RW) 7. Dependent - Playmaker - Playmaker = 54.5% Line d: Motte (LW) - Dickinson - Sutter (RW) 19. Dependent - Balanced - dependent = 44.6% Analysis: Also has low variance from line a - c. Average score of the top 3 lines are slightly below at 54.67% when compared to first option. It however has the advantage of having a lower drop off from top 3 lines to line d at 44.6% compared to 41.8% (meaning a more productive line and better overall balance). Eye test advantage of aligning players that complement a certain playing style. Line a - a puck possession style with crease presence Line b - puck possession with a crease presence in Horvat Line c: Mix of dump & chase (suited to J.T Miller play style) and possession (Podkolzin on forechecks). Also features net presence. Line d: features 2 match up centers and a high motor in Motte. Popular option: Line a: Miller (LW) - Pettersson - Boeser (RW) 3. playmaker - playmaker - shooter = 55.4% Line b: Hoglander(LW) - Horvat - Garland(RW) 5. balanced - playmaker - shooter = 55.0% Line c: Pearson (LW) - Dickinson - Podkolzin (RW) 14. dependent - balanced - playmaker = 48.9% Line d: Gadjovich (LW) - Sutter - Motte (RW) 20. dependent - dependent - dependent = 41.8% Analysis: feature 1 line with the highest % but the drop off from Line b to line c is significant. Average of the top 3 lines is 53.1%. 4. Comparison to other NHL Teams Depth Chart in the Pacific Division (compared against optimal option) Calgary: 1. Gaudreau(shooter) - Elia Lindholm(playmaker) - Tkachuk(Shooter)=55.1% 2. Blake Coleman(Playmaker) - Sean Monahan(dependent) - Dillon Dube(shooter) = 50.3% 3. Mangiapane(Playmaker) - Backlund(playmaker) - Tyler Pitlick(dependent) = 54.5% 4. Lucic(dependent) - Byron Froese(dependent) - Brett Ritchie(dependent) = 41.8% Analysis; top 3 line average of 53.3% (compared to Vancouver at 54.67%) and a bigger drop off of line 4 at 41.8% (Vancouver at 44.6%). Advantage Vancouver. Edmonton; 1. Zach Hyman(playmaker) - McDavid(shooter) - Puljujarvi(dependent) = 50.3% 2. Nugent-Hopkins(balanced) - Draisaitl(playmaker) - Yamamoto(playmaker) = 57.8% 3. Warren Foegele(dependent) - Turris(dependent) - Kassian(dependent) = 41.8% 4. Devin Shore(dependent) - Derek Ryan(playmaker) - Josh Archibald(dependent) = 45.8% Analysis: Edmonton lacks enough depth compared to Vancouver hence tends to be a top heavy team where at least 1 line features a much higher xG% than any of Vancouver's. The drop of from 1 line to next is significant, that includes moving Draisaitl to play with McDavid. Top 3 line average of 49.97% compared to Vancouver at 54.67%. Advantage Vancouver with a better strong link chain. Vegas: 1. Pacioretty(playmaker) - Chandler Stephenson(playmaker) - Mark Stone(playmaker) = 58.9% 2. Marchessault(shooter) - Karlsson(shooter) - Reilly Smith(shooter) = 50.0% 3. Mattias Janmark(Tuch)(playmaker) - Nolan Patrick(dependent) - Evgeni Dadonov (dependent) = 45.8% 4. Carrier(dependent) - Brett Howden(dependent) - Nicolas Roy(playmaker) = 45.8% Analysis: Vegas past success has been based on a strong link chain where there wasn't a significant drop off from line to line. However they have lost depth among the forward group but still feature a top heavy top line at 58.9%. An average of 51.57% compared to Vancouver at 54.67%. Vancouver has an overall better Chain however Vegas has a better top heavy line. Advantage Vancouver. Statistical Suggestion: Among the top favorite teams in the Pacific, Vancouver features the strongest chain between its lines using the optimal balance. It however doesn't have the top line in the division. Assuming its defensive core collectively perform better than does in its division, Vancouver is destined for the playoffs as a top 2 team in the division assuming all other things remain constant. The other key variables that would undermine or enhance these odd include: How well the Defensive core & Goalie tanden below stacks up against the rest (along with well it meshes with the forward composition - Analysis soon): VANCOUVER EDMONTON Oliver Ekman-Larsson(6'2" 200) - Hamonic(6'2" 205)/Poolman Darnell Nurse(6'4" 221) - Tyson Barrie (5'11" 197) Quinn Hughes(5'10" 170) - Poolman(6'2" 199)/Hamonic Duncan Keith(6'1" 192) - Cody Ceci (6'2" 210) Olli Juolevi(6'2" 183) - Tyler Myers (6'8" 229) Kris Russell(5'10" 170) - Evan Bouchard (6'3" 194) Demko & Halak Mike Smith & Mikko Koskinen VANCOUVER CALGARY Oliver Ekman-Larsson(6'2" 200) - Hamonic(6'2" 205)/Poolman Noah Hanifin(6'3" 215) - Chris Tanev (6'2" 197) Quinn Hughes(5'10" 170) - Poolman(6'2" 199)/Hamonic Juuso Valimaki(6'2" 212) - Rasmus Andersson (6'1" 214) Olli Juolevi(6'2" 183) - Tyler Myers (6'8" 229) Connor Mackey(6'2" 183) - Nikita Zadorov (6'6" 235) Demko & Halak Markstrom & Daniel Vladar VANCOUVER VEGAS Oliver Ekman-Larsson(6'2" 200) - Hamonic(6'2" 205)/Poolman Alec Martinez(6'1" 209) - Alex Pietrangelo (6'3" 210) Quinn Hughes(5'10" 170) - Poolman(6'2" 199)/Hamonic Brayden McNabb(6'4" 213) - Shea Theodore (6'2" 195) Olli Juolevi(6'2" 183) - Tyler Myers (6'8" 229) Nicolas Hague(6'6" 221) - Zack Whitecloud(6'2" 209) Demko & Halak Robin Lehner & Laurent Brossoit A quick eye test suggests that Vancouver stacks up pretty well against its competition within the division. A separating factor will be health and special teams performance relative to others. Running 2 equally adept powerplay units & PK units. An opinion: Power Play 1 Boeser, B. Miller, J. Pettersson, E. Hughes, Q. Ekman-Larsson, O. Power Play 2 Garland, C. Horvat, B. Podkolzin, V. Höglander, N. Myers, T.
  15. Benning has done a good job so far this offseason. Personally like the recent acquisitions of Ekman-Larson & Garland along with creating some cap flexibility. imho the remaining items to address going into the season (not in a particular order) are: 1. add size and physicality on defense. Ideally right shots to complement our puck moving LHD 2. Resign Pettersson and Hughes to cap friendly deals to allow for some flexibility. 3. add size on the bottom forward group 4. Russian player to help Podkolzin acclimate to team/off ice (one that fits within our 22 - 26 core age group) 5. add a bottom forward center that is good at pk with character The below moves allows us to address these aforementioned needs: TRADES: a.. Move Nate Schmidt & Jayce Hawryluk to Ana for Josh Mason & Alexander Volkov. moves helps accomplish 1 & 4 on the list of to dos. b. Move Braden Holtby to Sea for Mason Appleton. Add a late draft pick (2023 3 or 4th) to facilitate trade. Sea gets a veteran to mentor young goalies. Van gains some cap flexibility. RFA Signing: a. resign Pettersson to a 5 - 7yr aav of approximately $7million b. resign Q Hughes to a $6million aav for 5yrs c. resign Juolevi to $950k - $1million aav for 2yrs d. resign Conor Garland to a 2-3 yr on a $3.75million aav e. resign Jason Dickinson to a $2.5miilion aav 2 - 3yr term UFA Signing: a. resign Travis Hamonic to a $2.5million aav for 2-3yrs. b. resign Brandon Sutter at a $1million aav for 1-2yrs (good locker room presence and penalty killer) c. sign Jani Hakanpaa to a 2yr $1million aav. d. sign a Veteran goalie in Devan Dubnyk (could have a Stella season behind a D structure) ROSTER SIZE SALARY CAP CAP HIT OVERAGES BONUSES CAP SPACE 23 $81,500,000 $80,860,659 $648,780 $1,050,000 $639,341 Roll 4 productive lines (Each line features a playmaking scorer) Line 1A: J.T Miller - Elias Pettersson - Conor Garland Conor Garland - Can score goals but is at his best when setting up linemates, mostly because of excellent vision and passing skills. Great complementary piece allowing us to move Boeser to another line. Strong along the walls (like Toffoli was with us), drives the net and good setup man from behind the net. Line 1B: Vasily Podkolzin - Bo Horvat - Brock Boeser Vasily Podkolzin - playmaker to setup Boeser and has good one-one skills along with a power game. Line 3A: Tanner Pearson - Jason Dickinson - Nils Hoglander Nil Hoglander - playmaker and glue guy. Pretty much our second line this past season with Dickinson replacing Horvat on the line. Line 3B: Tyler Motte - Brandon Sutter - Mason Appleton Appleton - Owns excellent playmaking ability, but he can also score goals by himself. Tends to make his linemates better whenever he is on the ice Extras: Alexander Volkov - Zack MacEwen Defensive Pairs with a puck mover and size on each PAIR 1: Quinn Hughes - Josh Manson (Myers can sub in for offensive starts) PAIR 2; Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Travis Hamonic (Match up pair) PAIR 3: Olli Juolevi - Tyler Myers Extra: Jani Hakanpaa (start Rathbone in the minors. First call up to replace a LHD puck mover) Goalies: Thatcher Demko & Devan Dubnyk Power Play 1 Boeser, B. Miller, J. Pettersson, E. Hughes, Q. Ekman-Larsson, O. Power Play 2 Garland, C. Horvat, B. Podkolzin, V. Höglander, N. Myers, T. Penalty Kill 1 Sutter, B. Motte, T. Ekman-Larsson, O. Manson, J. Penalty Kill 2 Dickinson, J. Pearson, T. Juolevi, O. Hamonic, T.
×
×
  • Create New...