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Everything posted by Warhippy
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Without stat watching, Miller is so integral to this team that without him we are literally a top 5 drafting team. Miller does not play with Panarin, Kreider et al either. Miller certainly eats more ozone starts than MZ but is also far more versatile. MZ took $8.5 which is fine for him. Miller will not be taking $8.5 to stay in Vancouver. it will be a north of $9 contract
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Dallas has Pavelski, robertson, Hesikanen, Klingberg, Suter and Hintz. Benn and Seguin are tragically 4th and 6th in team scoring while being almost $19 million on their cap. They also have some decent prospects worth mentioning in Hansson, Bourque, Stanloven, Johnston and Oettinger. Again, neutralize Miller and we're done. Neutralize any of those aforementioned players on the main Dallas roster and Dallas is still 3 points up on us with games at hand. Again, my main point is that Miller is highly comparable to Benn/Seguin in terms of age and production as well as contract potential. We can't afford that with the obvious holes in our line up
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That's...not right at all no. That is a clear indicator that this team is 100% not deep enough or complete enough to compete. If you can run one goalie or forward out of the game you win period. Ya we can win without Petey or Huggy? Ok cool. But if we CAN'T win without Demko or Miller that says literally everything you need to know about why retaining a near 30 year old for over $9 million at fair market value who can be the single easiest to neutralize person for a win; is a bad idea Miller doesn't have any protection in the event of a trade. We also can not afford fair market value for a player whose agent literally tweeted SHOW ME THE MONEY after the Hertl signing Something's gotta give and we know that our potential greatest strength is also obviously our greatest weakness
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The stat when Miller does not record a point for this team is something like 2-23-4. When Demko doesn't start I believe this team has only won 3 games. You do not build around near 30 year old players with $9+ million contracts when it is evident you have so much more glaring issues throughout the entire line up. Take away either one of Miller or Demko and this team is drafting top 5 period. Benn and Seguin signed their contracts in 2016 and 2018 respectively at that time aged 26. Both were coming off multiple 70+-80+ point seasons and have both since seen their point totals decline to roughly 60 or less point per season averages over the last 2.5 seasons. We can not sign a player at almost 30 to a $9+ million deal knowing without question that production will wane and we will have to be replacing some seriously important spots via free agency at market value as we do not have those replacement players in the pipeline at those positions. That's just a terrible way to manage the cap and the team itself. The awful part is, the troll in me hopes Miller gets that fair market value contract at term from the Canucks and the inevitable happens just for the pure value of trolling the people who were so adamant about retaining him. I don't know when I became this person but for giggles it would be amusing to see.
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Ok. So, the comparable players that most fit the Miller issue are Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. Both signed their contracts 2-3 years earlier than Miller will, both had very similar production and both have seen almost idnetical regression. Benn at $9.5 million and Seguin at $9.85 million, both are on pace for just under 60 points this year which paces last year and in benns case the year prior. Is Miller, 3 years from now at $9+ million (minimum) worth that contract at 32 years of age for 60 ish points? It's a catch 22 for sure but some team will be left holding the bag on Millers next contract for at least 3 years and I'd rather it not be us
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[PGT] Detroit Red Wings at Vancouver Canucks | Mar. 17, 2022
Warhippy replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
We 100% can do it though I beliwve. That's what the forum of arm chair gm'ing is all about. My opinion only, cap rise or not. 2 year difference or not. They are comparable players for both size, position age and production. Miller will most likely not take a shorter term deal without adding massive amounts of AAV to it per year. He's also not taking the mythical "team friendly deal" because those don't happen. Like ever. I know people will point to MacKinnon, but he was wildly underachieving before his contract was signed then exploded afterwards. Millers agent tweeted out the show me the money gif immediately after Hertl was signed and Miller is worth more than Hertl putting him at the $9 ish million mark or more. We KNOW he's getting paid. We know he'll want term for the deal. A 34 year old Miller making $9+ million for say 50-60 points a year is an anchor when you factor in who will need new contracts, who will have to be replaced at market value and who will be lost to attrition or age. Seguin and Benn are very fair comparisons imo. I firmly believe that JT Miller has prices himself (fairly) out if our ability to retain him, without making major sacrifices elsewhere. And when we look at this teams win/loss record when he doesn't record a point, or when Demko isn't starting; it's genuinely frightening to see just how much he means to this team, but also how far this team has yet to go to make up for those shortcomings. So, while he may not have a drop off in production and could remain a 70-100 point player through the next contract he signs. It's very unlikely and his AAV and dollar value more than likely put him out of our ability to afford -
[Rumour] Canucks getting calls on Conor Garland
Warhippy replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
If Boeser had Garland's hustle he'd be an $8 million player. If Garland had Boesers size, offensive zone starts and pp time, he'd be an $8 million player. Which one are you keeping knowing that -
[Rumour] Canucks getting calls on Conor Garland
Warhippy replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I hereby nominate this as the greatest combo of names this year on the forum. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
Warhippy replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
The agency then coming out and saying "we just have to stir the pot" is also incredibly unprofessional. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
Warhippy replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Calgary on Saturday then fly to Buffalo with a potentially injured Pettersson. We SHOULD win one of those games without question. But.....What if we do? One game win against either of those teams doesn't exactly budge the needle int he current standings and then we follow that up with Colorado and Minni mid week in back to back games then a home and home against St Louis. It's a rough end to our month at best and could decide our season as early as next Thursday -
Here's the message we need to focus on. Our end of the season schedule has maybe 2 or 3 supposed "gimme team's on the schedule. We lost to one last night, a so called "gimme game" As the standings currently sit, we are sandwiched in between teams that are arguably deeper than us, better than us and have been slumping so are due for a break out while we've been wildly over achieving in comparison to our first 2 months of the season. The Ducks, Jets, Stars and Vegas are all within 3 points of us, ahead or behind; and some with games at hand. Edmonton might be able to be caught but what then? We're a 2 or 3 loss streak away from blowing the playoffs entirely and I'd argue that we're already at that stage. Miller has played himself in to a $9.5+ million contract and without Miller recording a point we're something like 2-23-4. Now take away Demko as well. What kind of team are we? The message from the top should be simple. Our best player will be to expensive to retain, without one of these two players we're drafting top 5. We are going to make these tough moves because these are the facts. If the players feel demoralized by these facts they need to suck it up and play better because these are simple undeniable facts.
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[Rumour] Canucks getting calls on Conor Garland
Warhippy replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Who are they coughing up for that sweet contract on a spark plug of a player who never gets any quality offensive pp time or chances? Clarke? Byfield? Vilardi? Durzi? Tyler...Madden -
[PGT] Detroit Red Wings at Vancouver Canucks | Mar. 17, 2022
Warhippy replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
7-8 million? His comprables are Jamie Benn/Tyler Seguin who both got $9.5 and $9.85 million deals. Both were 8 years terms and both have seen the exact same level of fall off almost to a point at the almost identical times in their careers. Paying Miller 7 million per year is great. 8 million is...ok But he's purchased himself a similar $9.25+ million per year deal with his play and that prices him way out of our ability to retain while remaining competitive. He's not taking a team friendly deal because those don't exist. At no point in time in modern league history has a star/stud player taken what people consider a "team friendly deal" even after winning cups or playing to win cups. Tampa/Florida being outliers because a perceived team friendly deal is always built around the tax free status the states of Florida and Texas have. He's not leaving $2+ million per year on the table no matter what people want to believe. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
Warhippy replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Just look at Benns production 2 years after that contract was signed. Even Seguin. C/W players both signed $9.5 million plus and Srguin at 3 years younger is seeing the exact same dips in production at the exact same time as Benn did. So our options would then be a shorter term contract with a higher cap, let's say $1.25 million extra per year lost so a 4 year Miller is now like $12 million or so per year. It's an insane thing to even consider this being possible even by trading or offloading Boeser to make room for him because he's now a prime paid player but is also overlapping in to the cap space for 2 bottom pairing or bottom 6 players as well with the space he takes up. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
Warhippy replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I tried thinking of a good comparable and found Jamie Benn. https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jt-miller https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jamie-benn Benn signed his contract a shade younger than Miller and will be done when he's 35. So we'd be signing Miller to a 7-8 year deal at $9.5 million at age 29 meaning we'd be holding him past 35 with minimal cap increases forecasted for the next few years with Pettersson on a shorter term contract and knowing that Myers/OEL would be replaced during that term via free agency because we have nobody in the pipe like them. Simply put, Miller has priced himself out of here and by the current standings after last nights loss against a "gimme team"; our playoff hopes are like 2 or 3 consecutive losses away from being over -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
Warhippy replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
He will get north of $9 million on a middling team. One of the bigger market easter teams will be able to get him for that $9 million I'd imagine At $9 million i'd be incredibly hesitant to sign him because, and I know this won't track well; that $9 million is an immediate anchor when we need to retain Horvat/Hughes/Pettersson in the next few years while that contract exists. Not to mention the need to then somehow still find top 2-4 RHD/LHD once OEL and Myers are gone from the team, capable winger to replace Boeser unless he is retained etc. We know what that contract would look like in 4 or 5 years with his age. The cap hit would make it un-tradable if he dips below a 60 point per season average. Even if he trends down to a 70 point player between years 2 and 4 of that contract it is bad. The inevitable downslope would then see us overpaying for a middle 6 producer. Ya, he's great now. But I again worry about the Cheechoo/J. Blake effect or in this istance. The Jamie Benn effect; Benn who is actually almost literally the mirror image of Miller in terms of production and potential contract And no, he is absolutely NOT taking a team friendly deal. Nobody does; that's literally never happened. Mackinnon didn't, he didn't produce like a #1 player so he got paid accordingly. Team friendly deals leave like, $500k on the table, not MILLIONS, so I am unsure why people keep pretending that would happen. Like every BC born player they claim is coming here Hot damn, actually Jamie Benn is almost the perfect comparable to JT Miller. J. Benn https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jamie-benn JT. Miller https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jt-miller Could you imagine paying Miller for 50 point production at $9 million + in his 30s? -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
Warhippy replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Serious question. With Millers agent flat out tweeting the show me the money gif after the Hertl signing. At what point does Miller price himself out of Vancouver? I have qualms about signing a player like Miller long term for the amount he will command based on the open market. It will absolutely handcuff us something fierce if we're not careful and we kind of have a history of signing players who were doing great then....weren't -
[Signing] Bruins sign college UFA Marc Mclaughlin
Warhippy replied to aGENT's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Not totally shocked that he is staying in Bean Town area. A great deal of US college players from the East/Northeast tend not to stray too far from that side of thre map. Livingstone is who I am watching though; if he is the only person we pluck from the college sweepstakes I am very happy