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Everything posted by IBatch
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What Guaranteed Draft Position? With Simulators, Current #8
IBatch replied to TheGuardian_'s topic in Canucks Talk
It was a small punch to the gut when CLB took PLD at three, the way Benning had been talking it sounded like he was the player they wanted (could be smoke and mirrors but it seemed genuine) and he was thought to go right about where we were picking. Was really looking forward to him from what I could read there really was nothing not to like. Could see why he’d go from center to D BPA at the time. In the end we wouldn’t have EP if OJ was NHL ready and made a difference, same with Hughes same with ??? this year. -
What Guaranteed Draft Position? With Simulators, Current #8
IBatch replied to TheGuardian_'s topic in Canucks Talk
Good observation. This is why their entire body of work needs to be considered, as well as how they do until the end of the year, how NHL ready they are, size, skill-set, attitude, leadership ability, hockey IQ (and even actual IQ or intelligence/ability to teach) competitiveness etc. The combine definitely helps with some of these things, one COL staff after interviewing Landseskog was overheard “I’m ready to go to f$@king war with him” leaving the room after...leadership in spades which they identified and didn’t take long for him to be named captain, seemed questionable at the time but now in his prime you can see why they did that. Hughes seems to check more boxes than any of them, but calling him the next P Kane is a lot to put on a 16-18 year old. He beat the records, but quality of opposition might be easier or tougher now, who knows but it’s worth investing some time in if you have to first overall spot and want to dig deeper. Even with all the tools in the world and endless media available to assess these guys the draft ultimately is still a crap shoot, especially after the top ten...the scouting departments are bigger than ever but every re-draft has some misses and some bombs. -
What Guaranteed Draft Position? With Simulators, Current #8
IBatch replied to TheGuardian_'s topic in Canucks Talk
Absolutely, sometimes no matter how good a player looks or how well he does at the junior level it just doesn’t translate, especially since the draft age went down to 18 all those years back. Used to be you more or less knew almost exactly what you were going to get back when Potvin was drafted. All those first overall picks by EDM and how many did they get perfect? Only some of them and McDavid helped with that. -
What Guaranteed Draft Position? With Simulators, Current #8
IBatch replied to TheGuardian_'s topic in Canucks Talk
Personally I doubt he would have drafted OJ, and he wouldn’t have been drafted early either, if he missed the WJs and didn’t participate. Based solely on his play in London that year I’d bet he’d go late in the first round, possibly even in the second round. His stock went way up after being named defenseman of the tourney and Benning didn’t go of board much by picking him. It’s a cautionary tale of taking what happens in the WJs with a grain of salt. Kakko inclusive. Puljajarvi was considered at the same level or close to it as Laine and look what happened there. -
What Guaranteed Draft Position? With Simulators, Current #8
IBatch replied to TheGuardian_'s topic in Canucks Talk
I think he was referring to best D-man or second best. At the time anyways OJ was considered the safest D pick, with the highest floor, not necessarily the heighest ceiling though. He was in the mix with Chychrun, who started the season as possible second overall pick and then slid. Sergechev was considered a high risk high reward players and McAvoy wasn’t even in the radar for top ten. THN who does arguably one of the most thorough draft list had OJ at nine, and the first D-man... -
What Guaranteed Draft Position? With Simulators, Current #8
IBatch replied to TheGuardian_'s topic in Canucks Talk
Yep, statistically OTT (COL) has the highest chance of picking 4. Which we’ve already seen happen. My hope is Benning has a well cooked and thought out list with multiple scenarios, including trading down if he thinks his guy will be available later or there are two guys that are virtually tied, he’s up next and knows one of them will still be around so can make a trade to add another pick (3rd most likely). So far he’s done an above average job of mining guys in the later rounds, more chances could only help the team later on. There are five or maybe six guys this year that stand out on a different level of their peer group, two of them are defenseman if he can bag one of those and get a Werenski/McAvoy type we are in for some better times moving forward. Recently we’ve been one of the worst teams in the league and appear to be in a free fall. It sucks for sure but at the end of the day if we are going to miss the playoffs, the better odds we have at one of the top five or six, the better off we will be in the long run. Last draft a half dozen or so guys slipped from the first round and were available in the second, and thankfully we got one in Woo (injuries lowered his stock, early on he was predicted to go in the middle of the first round) the year before it was Lind (21-25) and even JG (some lists had him going 28-30). If we just missed the playoffs we’d miss that opportunity. There’s plenty of talent available in the top sixty each year, but the top 32-38 has a lot more potential than past 40, by then the high risk high reward and guys that just slipped are all gone. Its nice that that we have all our picks going in, and I still hold on to hope Benning can make a deal to add more by jettisoning some of the chaff or even a “foundational” type ha ha. That’s you Sutter, and even Tanev (maybe TO we’ve all thought about it) I’d rather bottom out if that’s what we need to do, then holding on to guys that are always injured. Just shedding payroll would be a plus and if we can get a couple second rounders for them even that would be fine. -
What Guaranteed Draft Position? With Simulators, Current #8
IBatch replied to TheGuardian_'s topic in Canucks Talk
Absolutely...my point is don’t pass on something as good as MT that might fall on your lap...and picking top ten a player shouldn’t take four years to get to the show if he does he’s a bust based on draft position alone. OJ and JV were both in a recent article regarding top 25 first round busts since 2010, JV at 11, and OJ at 5. These were both off board organizational or positional picks...we can’t afford one of these again. I absolutely agree that defense is our worse position at the moment, but a top six winger isn’t far off, if you can get all but a guaranteed top line player or a maybe top four defenseman, and you know the forward can be added draft plus one (right away) or two (one year), and are uncertain how long the defenseman will take, pick the forward. And use your second rounder for a defenseman, just like Woo last year (who’s looking great so far). -
What Guaranteed Draft Position? With Simulators, Current #8
IBatch replied to TheGuardian_'s topic in Canucks Talk
How about this. OJ was named defenseman of the WJs on the strength of I think 11 assists and one goals feeding Laine and Puljajrvi pucks. Prior to that he was a mid to late first round pick and moved up to around 9. One tournament shouldn’t matter as much as a body of work...45ish points on a loaded London team should be considered too.. Kakko had a great tournament no doubt, and the US floundered at the end. J Hughes was still all over everyone throughout, the puck just didn’t go in as much. It’s not the first time teams have read way too much into what happens after Xmas in this tournament, many teams have taken players over ones they should have, for us hopefully Benning has learned his lesson if for some reason we find ourselves in a position to get first overall. -
What Guaranteed Draft Position? With Simulators, Current #8
IBatch replied to TheGuardian_'s topic in Canucks Talk
If he can get a D prospect that’s close to his draft position then take it. We still need wingers, and if he had a shot at a highly touted center that’s slipped and is their BPA then take him. That would give them flexibility to move one to the wing, and then move him back if someone is injured, give Green options (maybe move EP to the wing and watch him explode for example) and trade options to get a D later too. I’m not a fan of the positional pick, it comes with risks which we’ve seen twice out of five first round picks (ok six if you include Mccaan) at this point we can’t afford to wait four years to see a first round pick in the lineup need highly touted players that are close to NHL ready etc. Second rounders can be used for this and should, on guys that have slipped from the first round and are still around. Our defense is a priority no doubt, but so is our top six. Can’t win many hockey games scoring 0-2 goals per game no matter how good the defense is. Hopefully we get our man, and he’s a defenseman that won’t take long...and that we don’t pass up something that will come back and haunt us. -
What Guaranteed Draft Position? With Simulators, Current #8
IBatch replied to TheGuardian_'s topic in Canucks Talk
Don’t care where we draft, as long as we pick the BPA at that spot. OJ and JV were two misses that are hurting this teams rebuild hopes a lot at this point, Benning can’t afford (and the fans need a win too) this time around. Another home run like EP would be a godsend. -
(Signing)Mark Stone ext. 8 years AVV 9.5 mil
IBatch replied to Wayne Glensky's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
He’s pretty good no doubt, but not close to what Stone does and has been doing for years now. The best comparable to Stone in the league is Wheeler, I’d take Wheeler over him any day at the same age, since he’s quietly been a mainstay in the leagues top ten in scoring and does many of the same things, he had to wait until last summer to get his payday. They make within a million of each other, and in four or five years this contract will look like a good deal compared to what GMs are handing out. The range being thrown around for what Stone could pull as this years most coveted forward free agent was 9-10, Vegas signed him right within it, they have the money and obviously aren’t going to wait to go for it after last year and how well MAF has played for them so far. It’s no coincidence that they’ve won what five in a row or something recently...they just put themselves into a dark horse contender entering the playoffs. CAL, SJ and Vegas are going to beat the crap out of each other on the way to the conference finals... -
Yep especially the cap relief part where they essentially have 8 million dollars more to work with in signing guys, like an extra Point or a couple Gourdes. AND recently it got a bit better for them, Vegas and Miami. A six million dollar contract in most states and North of the border is taxed at 53% there abouts and there only 39% overall. No state tax. The CBA needs to address this.
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But TB is doing that so why can’t we? Ha ha. Aren’t they lucky that small skilled guys is the way it’s going and guys like Johnny Hockey and Point can run around now with ten fingers in place...Gourde. Cirelli. They are officially the smallest team in the league now...and they have a good sized defense too. The Yzerman model. Tax breaks help though, and I’m so jealous I keep posting about that. They’ve done (drafted)unusually well considering they’ve gone from one core that won a cup to another that has been to the conference final three of the past four years (with a little in between with the St Louis Stamkos show)i...and aside from a few down years when they got Stamkos and Hedman essentially back-to-back have been a prettt good team since the beat Calgary all those years ago. Not sure if their small but Uber skilled forward group is going to help them in the playoffs get to the cup, but the past couple years they sure look like they could, and this year they aren’t letting up on the gas like they did last year in the regular season. Oh yeah and add Vasilevsky to the list of great drafting too. And Drouin became Sergechev....not too shabby either. Oh and that Kucherov guys pretty good too.
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Imagine if Benning didn’t go out and get Beagle and Rousell...ones having a career year and the other is, well predictably helping our C depth with Sutter injured a couple times, including during critical times of the year. Don’t think that’s the problem, the problem is the kids can’t carry the load yet, they tried and for a while it looked like no Sedins plus one was no big deal. The team is following the predicted script, and would be even worse if Markstrom wasn’t channeling his inner Rinne. As far as how long before a new coach and new GM goes....yes they will both eventually be fired...maybe next year.
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"My Son is Actually in the NHL": by Juliana MacEwen
IBatch replied to Where's Wellwood's topic in Canucks Talk
He was a star no doubt, but Messier did the impossible, winning a cup without Gretzky, and was considered at the same level as Lemuiex and Wayne for two years in NYR before 94 winning a Hart and I think a Lindsay as well..while Yzerman was good he wasn’t that good and he wasnt winning anything in Detroit until quite some time later. At the time Messier has a lot more glow, the shine was mostly coming off his six Stanley cup rings. Later Yzerman was awesome, but Messier was godlike in his presence. Diminished a lot as he got older, but he did ok in his forties, even scored 20 goals his final year. That period was insane. For more than a decade in half the only guys to win the Art Ross were Gretzky, Lemieux and I think Jagr, and the Hart Gretzky, Lemuiex and Messier. Federov won the Hart in 94, but when Gretzky won his last Art Ross, 15 years after he started his NHL career. -
"My Son is Actually in the NHL": by Juliana MacEwen
IBatch replied to Where's Wellwood's topic in Canucks Talk
Even he’s spoke about how it was a mistake and how he wishes things worked out better. Don’t know what he means by that, but I do know if he just accepted a second line role and backed Linden that was the best team on paper by a long shot. If Bure and Mogilny stayed we could have won some cups.... -
"My Son is Actually in the NHL": by Juliana MacEwen
IBatch replied to Where's Wellwood's topic in Canucks Talk
Ok I used the confused emoji because your right and i hate that your right. When he first signed here I saw him on a ferry a day or two before in the gift shop. My first thought was wow that’s Messier, and he’s a lot smaller than I thought he would be. Then the awe crept in, this is the Oiler that did amazing things when I grew up and in the moment I forgave him for 94. He was wearing a hat and a long trench coat obviously trying to go incognito and it was working, nobody else knew we were standing in the presence of at the time a hockey god. For a moment I thought maybe it was a doppelgänger becuase why would he be on a ferry anyways .... then we locked eyes, and a few second later he grinned and winked and I knew it was him. I kept staring and it became a contest for maybe ten seconds, then grinned back and left him alone. A few days later he signed with us and I wasn’t that unhappy it happened..then I was seriously unhappy about it. Messier was a great player, absolutely, just not for us. -
"My Son is Actually in the NHL": by Juliana MacEwen
IBatch replied to Where's Wellwood's topic in Canucks Talk
Mark Messier. The guy we all wanted to be growing up...at least until we played against him in the final and saw him cross-check Momesso hard in the numbers no penalty. Messier is as a polarizing figure in our past as we have, mostly on the hate side of the spectrum. If he only excepted the A and supported Linden, and played a second line role and helped management sign and keep Bure we’ve of had a team that could have been unstoppable. Instead he was like a hand grenade in the dressing room and to our lineup. Ugh. Eat some chips and leave our team alone... -
"My Son is Actually in the NHL": by Juliana MacEwen
IBatch replied to Where's Wellwood's topic in Canucks Talk
He’s valuable for both clubs now...but I agree with this statement. With Dahlen now having points 12 points in the past 13 AHL games you have to wonder if he could have done something with a call-up too. There is a lot of dead wood on this club no doubt...place holders for sure. Rather see guys like McEwen, Brisbois and Sautner play at this point even if it means we waive a guy or two and sink further in the standings, after all isn’t that the best thing for the club at this point...best odds for first overall. -
Horvat is our future Captain no doubt, pretty sure he will be named either before the season is started or as part of next years 50th celebrations (and a Sedin send off/tribute). Not sure that will keep him here but I hope it does, at some point Benning could make a Weber for Subban like trade (MTL won that big time, Weber is a much better defenseman) but with one of our core guys and Horvat could be that piece, it all depends on who and what he drafts next. If we win the lottery this draft and pick Hughes for example, then he has the luxury to trade Horvat for a young defenseman with equal upside (Parayko, Werenski would be at the top of the list depending on what happens to their teams this off season). He’s the oldest young player on a rebuilding team with very good trade value, from that stance he’s the first to consider trading if Benning or someone else later decides its time to make a skill for skill type trade that plugs up a glaring weakness (and we’ve got several of those right now). Who really knows what will happen...maybe he will be the first Canuck ever to hoist the Stanley cup...that’s the one I’m going for, I’m a glutton for punishment after all these years but still have a lot of hope one day all the grief and disappointment will be worth it. No matter what happens Horvat is already one of the better players we’ve ever had, he’s no Linden but yet it’s hard not to see some similaritie in both his play and when he talks to the media, he does have leadership skills, don’t think he’s embraced the role yet but perhaps when they make him Captain he will, and he will take it as seriously as some of the better captains we’ve had (Smyle and Linden were the best).
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We do have pretty great owners all things considered, and they definitely got used to making money given attendance overall since they arrived had been close to capacity every year, and some years over capacity. The CAP has almost tripled since it started, that’s a lot of dough (30-85 million) that they have earned each year as their half of the bounty, and they earn a lot more in revenue that isn’t shared. Not bad for a quarter billion dollar investment, which is the other side of things it’s also tripled in value since they bought the team. Given this is their side project and not their main source of income, which had also gone up a ridiculous amount given the market in Vancouver, I think a the desire to win a cup is what convinced them to either go along with Bennings plan of re-tooling or tell Benning that’s what they want more than declining gate sales and non-hockey shared related income. They certainly hasn’t suffered that much considering the past six years and all the losing. Last year capacity was 18,900 and they averaged 18,079 and I bet that’s up this year given everyone wants to see EP and the new team (post Sedin). We don’t really know how they all got on board for a re-tool in the first place, money would certainly be part of the discussion but I think they just went for it given the Sedins play hadn’t regressed significantly yet and they still had some decent support player in place. Foolish both then and in hindsight (my brother suggested we traded the Sedins instead of re-signing them and I thought no way at the time, turns out he was right) and i agree it cost us a couple years on the rebuild time. Your right in suggesting the Sedins were part of two cores as well as they were part of the WCE early on...and possibly a third core with there tutelage of Horvat.
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The OP should change the title and put a 3 there instead of a 1. Let’s be real here, EP is going to be a star we all know that, our bottom six is compatible with any contenders bottom six, Markstrom is fine...but our defense is a mess as is our top six. We need two more Boeser quality players or better, and a top pairing. Hughes could be one of the top pairing, that’s three more draft picks. Problem with that is after we get two more quality players the third might be harder to mine from the draft and Bennings hitting .650 with his first rounders (a recent article with the worst 25 misses in the first round since 2010 had JV at 11, and OJ at 5, it’s debatable but not really given who was passed on). So in other words it’s going to take some time. In three years EP, Boeser, Hughes and Horvat will all be in various stages of their prime and all the dead weight will be trimmed off the CAP, that’s when whatever is going to happen with his core will happen. Curiously it’s also about the same timing between our first and second Final appearances..
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Bryam or whomever won’t play next year , and I don’t think Hughes is going to boost us that much his first year either (our PP will get a boost but his shot is not NHL caliber). On the the flip side if this team is healthy we can compete, but we pretty much are exactly where we are last year in terms of offense and defense (26-27 in both categories) post Sedin year one. Considering what we lost things could be a lot worse, and they would be if Markstrom played like he did a year ago. We are three very good-star players away from becoming a playoff threat, five from a team that can do damage in it. Just look at the teams around the league that are contenders and it’s not hard to understand why. TB second line is better than half the leagues first line. Same with PIT....argh. Again when the teams healthy and not tired like it is now, we do alright, but we still have a long way to go. On the bright side Markstrom looks like the real deal (can’t believe it! Kudos to Bennings patience) and a top five or ten goalie gives a team a chance to win every game even its injury riddled. He could become the most important player during the rebuild phase...either by holding it up so we can’t draft top five when we need it, and or by letting the kids experience some winning while we wait for reinforcements.