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Howdy Folks, Preface: Haven't made a post with substance re:Draft Prospects of this size on CDC since like 2014 but those threads have l0000oong disappeared Haven't made post liek this since 2019 for my website. BUT THE TIME HAS COME BABY (Lest we forget my hardon for Rasmus Andersson in the 2015 Draft Thread ) What This Is: This is a peer based analysis based on a "couch-potato" draft method so to speak. Let us not kid ourselves, none of us are watching these kids play. And even if some of us are, it is clear that many of us are very poor talent evaluators. If any of you managed to think a few years ago (including myself) that JT Miller would lead our team including Petey by like 40pts...well... Anyways, I will do a brief, simplified study. I will plot GP v Pts (basically pt/gm yes) and apply a very simple polynomial regression. Players who are standouts in their respective leagues are players to keep an eye on in the draft. It is a very lazy view of prospects, but in a simplified manner, one should expect those that are head and shoulders above their peers to continue to do so once they graduate to the NHL. It is a solid hypothesis, but again, a simplified and lazy one. A Key Example: This is a perfect example of what I hope to accomplish. McDavid was clearly ahead of the rest. He still is. Marner and Strome clearly had high NHL caliber potential....Strome isn't useless and Marner is elite...Magniapane is the surprise, and for the longest time he did not live up to the expectations of this chart. Last season? 35 GOALS. Alternatively, some players CDC or scouts were hyped for did not live up to it. Konecny was very hyped due to his relation to Horvat. He is an alright 2nd liner. Not completely out of line with what the chart suggests. Lawson Crouse? Looks like a bad pick! 6OA Pavel Zacha? Looks like a bad pick! Zachary Senyshyn? Looks like a bad pick! The one exception to this chart is Anthony Cirelli. However, he is a cute middle 6 player. Props to his work ethic for keeping him as an effective player in this league! You can now understand what I am trying to illustrate, so without further ado let us see some of the more promising players in this draft in a simplified offensive output orientated basis. Disclosure: I chose not to put extensive time into this, so the occasional player may be missed and I did not reconcile for players who played in two leagues say VHL/MHL. I will not go far into detail for leagues with few players, however I will make a brief comment. Something to account for does include that overagers are draft eligibles, and tend to outperform. This is something to discount in your view of a player based on the charts provided below. Hit it From the Back: A Review of Defenders BCHL Other than a guy named Ryan Hopkins being available, Tyson Jugnauth is the only standout in this league. He won top defender of the BCHL and appears to be ranked somewhere around the 5th round so he may be a dark horse late pick candidate if you believe scouts discount the BCHL akin to Makar and the AJHL! USDP Again, I do not intend to make a chart for every League+POS combo that has a small sample size, but one guy clearly stood out in this league and I wanted to chart it. In the past we have seen players out of US Junior Leagues undervalued (Boeser, Bobby Brink, McAvoy, etc), does that still hold true for Lane Hutson? Time will tell but hes not a bad shout. U20 SM-sarja Keep a small eye out for Kasper Kulonummi QMJHL Only interesting standout quality of QMJHL Dmen is that one of them is Jaroslav Spacek's son and hes not awful MHL From Russia, Artyom Duda is one of the limited standouts in the MHL for Dmen. J20 Nationell Calle Odelius is only mildly interesting out of this league. Also known for making it public that the Habs asked him some toon questions during his interview. USHL Appears to have some bangers in this league! Jacob Guévin and Luke Mittelstadt show promise! Well...they fit under the category of overagers that I mentioned to discount earlier. Dont expect much of these players, they are ranked in the later rounds for a reason. SHAMEFUL WHL Now for an actual banger! Both Kevin Korchinski and Denton Mateychuk are ranked highly and should be can't miss picks based on how beautifully they perform relative to their peers! OHL Google Pasha Mintyukov and you get Delta Hockey Academy for some reason. Anyways, him and Christian Kyrou are interesting. Chris may be ranked lower since he missed the 2021 cutoff by a few days...is him being one of the older players in the draft misranking him or is it fair? Time will tell. Party in the Front: A Review of Forwards Same method, maybe more predictive, time to examine forwards. Again, I'm trying to do this in a time efficient manner, so charts are as basic as possible via excel and I wont be posting all from all the leagues. But I will make mention of the studs to keep an eye on! BCHL Nobody super standout. Abbotsford's own Tyson Dyck may goose end up as an AHL forward or something one day. Czechia Petr Hauser is the best but not notable enough. USDP Lot of notable names here Is Isaac Howard underrated? He is a LW vs Cooley being a C but this chart does paint the idea that Logan may not be the biggest offensive dynamo from this league. Rutger McGroarty, Cutter Gauthier, and Frank Nazar should all be acceptable selections, but if given the chance, Canucks should pounce for "Ike" Howard. Stay away from fake Bedard and fake Hejduk clearly U20 SM-Sarja Aleksanteri Kaskimäki is in a three way race with other Fins for mildly interesting mid-draft selections. QMJHL Jordan Dumais is an absolute gem. This guy is criminally underranked. Why? Took no more than a few seconds to see that he is only 5'9". If there was a Brayden Point tier guy in this draft who becomes a mid-rounder mostly on the basis of being small, it is this guy. He is not being carried either, he led the Halifax Mooseheads skaters by 21 points as a draft eligible. His coach claims that he leads his line and its not hard to see from a stat view. Kid is a beauty and whoever select Dumais is batting high for the steal of the draft if his size proves not to be an issue. This guy broke onto the scene out of nowhere this year. Factor this in with his size, and this may indeed be a first round gamble that can be taken in the later rounds. Similar to Brayden Point maybe...what a beaut J20 Nationell Liam Öhgren and Ludwig Persson should be acceptable to above-average picks given how they fared quite well against their peers. USHL All the good players here are overagers so there is a yucky crop here. WHL King is an overager. Savoie does not look to be a poor choice... and... contrary to CDCs popular belief that meat and potato tier players can never be good, Conor Geekie is well above his peers and perhaps scouts are onto something about the fella! Jagger Firkus is also projected in the top two rounds despite being small. However, he stands out as a tier more productive than Geekie. Are scouts still heavily discounting size? Appears some things never change in hockey... OHL Morrison and Edmonds are overagers, so yes, Shane Wright is the standout of the OHL. Luca Del Bel Belluz should be a pretty solid 1st round pick. Owen Beck is somewhere in the crowd near the red line and fighting for relevance. He should be fairly good but is more of a "safe" pick in the sense that his upside may be capped to a certain level. And that sums it up! Other interesting tidbits: Nail Yakupov's cousin Raul Yakupov is draft eligible I reiterate there is a prospect named Ryan Hopkins that is eligible Scotty Niedermayer's son is eligible so is Nick Havelid's Jaroslav Spacek's son appears to be "alright" Reminder that some players and leagues were missed so don't come hollering at me about the Slovaks! RECAP (SIGNIFICANT STANDOUT PLAYERS): Lane Hutson (D) Kevin Korchinski (D) Denton Mateychuk (D) Pasha Mintyukov (D) Christian Kyrou (D) Isaac Howard (F) Logan Cooley (F) Rutger McGroarty (F) Cutter Gauthier (F) Frank Nazar (F) Jordan Dumais (F) Matt Savoie (F) Conor Geekie (F) Jagger Firkus (F) Shane Wright (F) Luca Del Bel Belluz (F) These players stand out relative to their peers and usually this is something that is continued throughout their careers. This draft appears to be deep...in an interesting way. When I had done this same analysis in 2019, there were not this many super interesting players. This year? Several players and they all play into the same theme... Undersized Players, Yet Again Discounted: Lane Hutson, the 5'8" dman has shown he can exceed. He is not ranked highly. Jordan Dumais, my favourite dark horse of this draft, is a 5'9" winger. He suddenly came onto the scene...he is not ranked highly. Jagger Firkus is 5'10". He is ranked as 2nd round fodder, but scouts clearly understand him a little better given that his size is the most acceptable of the three and that he plays in the OHL. If the Canucks draft any one of these exciting prospects, you know that you will have this monkey's approval! Regards,
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Fellas, the answer is obvious. Denton Mateychuk
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What's the price on Batherson? Kid stinks like a rusty sock but I'd consider giving you Piet Ratchuk for him.
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No rebuilding team is letting a legit top 3 talent drop 7 spots to 10. The 2 year wait is irrelevant. He's not a top 3 talent and he hasn't shown that he's a top 10 talent. I hope Podkolzin can show to be a great middle 6er cuz those pieces are still invaluable to the team. But don't be fooled into thinking Podkolzin would magically be a better playoff performer than Caufield Bodly and Zegras when none of them have done that and the one that has was a pivotal primary scorer on a cup finals run
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Strike 1: They literally both paced 22pts in their rookie years as of now. Their point production in their rookie seasons is identical and any sort of argument against is based on literally nothing other than GP. Strike 2: I'm also not the poster who pulled this comparison in the first place so perhaps doing one minute of reading would make your points more legitimate. Thirdly: Where do you see Podkolzin adding 40pts from? Horvat added 15 goals because he went from a 90SOG rookie season to 200SOG by being a bumper option on the PP. He shoots historically ~15% so that's 15 goals and that explains the majority of his points increase. Podkolzin shoots at 11%. So he adds 11 more goals if he were to be a primary shooting option on the PP. That brings him to 33 points. Do you think he's gonna make up the other 27pts from apples? Based on his 2 on 1 with Horvat the other day, as well as his overall decision making I find it hard to believe he'll become a large apple provider.
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Etem had similar zone starts, corsi and points historically. I think the comparison is dead on.... Issue is some project forward Podkolzin as being more than a 22 pt player and people project backwards Etem being just a 22pt player. The comp is pretty accurate as at today until Podkolzin can prove otherwise
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When I look at Podkolzin, I see a failure of a 10th overall pick. A guy who was in his D-1 season considered to be a top 3 prospect, slid to 10 in his draft year, and surely in a redraft places low 1st round/ early 2nd round. That's the brutal truth. Podkolzin can be a solid middle sixer. His potential ability is merely a 150/200 (or 7.5/10) if you will. Contrast this to wingers taken below him, Boldy, Caufield...and you'll see why Podkolzin is a disappointment for where he was taken. And he may never amount to anything more than an middle 6er. You don't need to look further than his constant benching and low ice time from both the coaches he had this season, it's not without reason. Don't let this hot streak fool you. If he can mantain these past...What...3 games...into next season, then color me excited. But Podkolzin mayn't be a stranger to ending on a high note after prior disappointment... One scout said prior to his selection: "Reasons for doubt include inability to produce in league play and a U18 tournament that saw him come on only at the end to finish with four points in seven games" And so I encourage you all to remove the optimism lenses and see Podkolzin for what he really is. Is Podkolzin a top 6 player when he's a 25pt rookie? Is Podkolzin better than any of the wingers near his 10th selection (Zegras, Caufield, Boldy, Podkolzin)? Isn't Podkolzin the consensus worst of the four aforementioned players? Was Podkolzin "robbed" of ice time or was he just bad? I don't recall Hughes, Pettersson, Boeser being scratched early on in the careers because they showed right off the getgo that they are top 6/top 4 surefire ready. The year isn't 2000 (clutching city) and this is not a hockey simulation game. Young players showcase more or less what they are capable of right from the start. Seider is an elite defender. Zegras is a top line winger. Boldy is a top line winger. Caufield is a top 6 winger. Podkolzin is a bottom 6 winger. This isn't to say there isn't going to be some volatility within players playing ability. But to project someone who has been a bottom 6er for his entire career into something outlandish as a 1st line winger is unreasonable and I question whether you may be goosing. Perhaps Podkolzin find his groove as a mid-tier second liner on an optimistic but attainable note (but nit right away of course). But Podkolzin is and will always be the wrong winger to have been taken at 10th overall and no amount of "hope" will mask the immeasurable disappointment in what looks to be a beautiful, yet uninspiring man destined to be no more than a middle 6er.
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Mmm yum Did you make a cake or something else yummy with that chocolate?!
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Mafia: Indiana Jones - Revive [Game Over - SK Victory!]
Zfetch replied to Blue Jay 22's topic in White Noise
Someone wanna give me a recap woozy face I like the cut of LLs jib. Still think BK is acting sus. These reads may or may not be because they posted on this page lel -
Mafia: Indiana Jones - Revive [Game Over - SK Victory!]
Zfetch replied to Blue Jay 22's topic in White Noise
Oh f0k hope I'm alive lel --pg 9 ,,, Will have some time in a bit while chilling in the airport -
Mafia: Indiana Jones - Revive [Game Over - SK Victory!]
Zfetch replied to Blue Jay 22's topic in White Noise
How would he not know he's vanilla. It clearly states if you don't receive a pm.. -
Mafia: Indiana Jones - Revive [Game Over - SK Victory!]
Zfetch replied to Blue Jay 22's topic in White Noise
This is sus BK being too serious off the gate is also sus Falc, BK added to my cart;,,;, -
Mafia: Indiana Jones - Revive [Game Over - SK Victory!]
Zfetch replied to Blue Jay 22's topic in White Noise
Why would you guys vote me when my PM says specifically that I get lynch immunity on the first three nightfalls?? -
Mafia: Indiana Jones - Revive [Game Over - SK Victory!]
Zfetch replied to Blue Jay 22's topic in White Noise
Oh I missed the part in my dms that says Qwags is more mafia than Aladeen Unvote; Vote Qwags -
Mafia: Indiana Jones - Revive [Game Over - SK Victory!]
Zfetch replied to Blue Jay 22's topic in White Noise
Wow Fatty not partaking cuz he's got "life". Big surprise! -
Mafia: Indiana Jones - Revive [Game Over - SK Victory!]
Zfetch replied to Blue Jay 22's topic in White Noise
Why does my PM say Aladeen is mafia?? Vote Aladeen -
Mafia: Indiana Jones - Revive [Game Over - SK Victory!]
Zfetch replied to Blue Jay 22's topic in White Noise
Ynoy -
Congrats to Vanya on a legendary career.
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Pens resign Celestin 2y Edstrom 2y Savage 2y Muller 2y Knetchel 5y
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Congrats to Vanya on like 4 different trophies woot woot stop choking in the playoffs brutal