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Everything posted by mll
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[Rumour] Predators shopping Filip Forsberg
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
The qualifying offer is due on 11 July - that's several months from now. They can already agree on a deal today. -
His upcoming contract can be structured however they want - there's no such thing as the 1st year needing to be 7.5M because of his QO. The QO is a process to retain a players' rights. It's a 1-year deal that is open for acceptance during a 10 day window or so. Most of the time players just ignore the QO and negotiate a contract instead. In the case of Boeser, the QO is so high that there is the risk he elects to sign it - Laine signed his.
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Don't see Boston trading Carlo - they don't have Rask in net anymore. Also don't think that adding on wing is a priority. They haven't found a replacement for Krejci at C2. Bergeron also turns 37 this summer and will be UFA. Would imagine that the higher priority is to find a top-6 C.
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[Rumour] Predators shopping Filip Forsberg
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Doesn't mean he's getting that kind of contract. A team has to be willing to qualify him at that amount and there might not be any, with the risk that he signs that 1-year deal. Forsberg is a UFA producing upwards of PPG and already has 27 goals on the season. -
Why would NJD make that deal though. Poolman's contract was mocked by the analytics community and NJD leans heavily on analytics to make their decisions. Fitzgerald is building a fast skating team which Boeser is not. His QO also doesn't make him an attractive target and his 5v5 production is pretty underwhelming.
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He's not worth 7.5M long term so Arizona would need to retain to flip him further. He's more likely a 1-year rental so not much trade value with that QO.
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[Rumour] Predators shopping Filip Forsberg
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Boeser is not going to get between 8-9M. -
With his 7.5M qualifying offer and other owners upset about what they are trying to pull off given revenue sharing - don't see it.
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Doubt Arizona are in any way interested in Boeser or him in signing there - would imagine that if he ends up there he'll just sign his QO. They are in a tear down rebuild to hoard draft picks. Ownership is going to have to spend 20-30M out of his own pocket to put their facilities at NHL standard. Can't imagine they want to spend any money. Could see them trading for insured LTIR contracts to reach the floor.
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[Rumour] Predators shopping Filip Forsberg
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
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All the reason for NJD not to make those trades. Mercer has similar production as Boeser and produces more at EV and he's younger, cheaper. Would expect teams to wait and see if Boeser can rebound before giving up all that much for him + he has that ugly 7.5M qualifying offer.
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[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at New Jersey Devils | Feb. 28, 2022
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Their active roster is still under 81.5M. Vancouver's cap hit is 86.7M but their active roster has to still be under 81.5M at all times - actually under 81.2M as they couldn't maximise their LTIR relief when they went into LTIR. Only players on LTIR can exceed the cap and when a player is put on LTIR it's because he is unavailable to play but his cap hit stays on the books. -
[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at New Jersey Devils | Feb. 28, 2022
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Volume of shots doesn't account for shot quality. A coach like Barry Trotz finds volume shooting inefficient and explains that he by far prefers 1 shot with a 40% conversion chance, than 40 shots with a 1% conversion chance. Same approach defensively - volume shooting doesn't scare him if they keep the shots to the outside. No team is spending more than 81.5M for their active roster. Players on LTIR aren't available to play but count against the cap. That becomes true in the post-season, but teams who are not in LTIR, and can bank cap space and add players at the TDL can have rosters way beyond that. -
[Waivers] Brendan Perlini, Petteri Lindbohm
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
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[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers | Feb. 27, 2022
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Different tracking company but similar conclusion - from a few days ago. Demko regularly outperforms his environment. After the win against Toronto earlier this month, Kelly tweeted that the Canucks have the highest % of games played with expected or above goaltending this season - they've received incredible goaltending from Demko but also from Martin and even Halak. -
Don't see NJD trading Siegenthaler - Lindy calls him their top defender on the left side and says he's been their best guy to clean up the trouble areas. He's playing on their top pairing with Hamilton.
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[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers | Feb. 27, 2022
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
CSA tracks the context of every play that leads to a shot (number of screens, passing plays etc). Plays that have historically converted at under 10% are considered low scoring chances. Between 10% and under 20% are mid-danger and any play with a historical conversion rate of above 20% are considered high danger. -
[GDT] Around the NHL | February/March (27-05) 2022
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in General Hockey Discussion
Earlier in the week: -
There's the financial side - they'll likely allow him to burn a year like Vancouver did to get Hughes, Boeser under contract. Once he signs his ELC he loses his amateur status and can no longer play College hockey anymore.
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[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Wasn't last year either - only 66 minutes on the ice together at 5v5 last season per Natural Stat Trick. Might have more to do with maturity but also having 2 scoring lines for opponents to worry about - creates matchups issues. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Panarin plays with Strome at 5v5 and not Zibanejad. They play on the PP together though. Miller's EV numbers are in the lower half of the 73 players playing at a 0.8 pace or higher (min 20 games). His PP production is pulling his numbers up where he is 3rd behind McDavid and Draisaitl. -
[Rumour] J.T. Miller Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to Podzilla's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Duchene is already playing wing. Don't really see them in on Miller with Poile concerned that their team is getting too old and need to re-stock.