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Everything posted by mll
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CapFriendly is using 84M to calculate cap space. Seems unlikely that the cap would increase as much. There's also the bonus overages that have not been accounted for yet. Canucks end of season cap space was shown as 30'474.- ever since Ferland went on LTIR - no cap space created using LTIR. Any performance bonuses in excess of that 30K will count against next season's cap. Pettersson and Hughes look to have hit their maximum schedule A targets - 1.7M combined. Gaudette might have some games played bonuses. So around 16M seems more likely (with Ferland healthy and Baertschi buried). If they use the full 16M - they will create bonuses overages for the season after but there will be some contracts coming off the books. Virtanen has arbitration rights and is 2 years to UFA - his agent might want to file for leverage. It's a bigger cap hit to buyout Eriksson and replace him on the roster than just keep Eriksson as F13. His buyout cap hit is 5.7M next season.
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1. Ottawa believes they can be competitive next year. Don't see them wanting to add a slowing down veteran like Eriksson. He has also that additional year when they'll have to extend their RFAs. He could cost them players with cap being limited. Detroit already has too many players past their prime and are trying to get rid of those contracts. No reason to believe they'd want to add another one. Could see those teams more looking to make a JT Miller type of trade - ie target teams who have to move good young players to create cap space. Demko has not proven anything yet and his numbers were mediocre this season. Doubt he has much value, goalies hardly ever do, and is certainly insufficient to move Eriksson. Unless the Canucks offer up multiple high end futures, that's not Demko, there's not much appeal for any team to take on Eriksson. Canucks are also in cap trouble and teams know that they want to sign Markstrom, Toffoli, etc. It's going to cost more to move contracts because of that pressure to create cap space. 2. Don't see Lamoriello wanting a winger for a D especially with some of their Ds getting up in age. Virtanen also has arbitration rights and will be UFA in 2 years. NYI does not have a lot of cap space either so can't see them trading a key player for their future in Dobson for a winger in Virtanen. 3. Nashville signed Sissons to a 7 year deal last summer. Pretty strong signal that they want to keep him long term. Friedman in his 31 thoughts even wrote how much they like him over there. He had a horrible season but has always done well in the playoffs. It was also evident that they need his versatility. When they lost Johansen to injury in the playoffs he filled in as C1 and even had a hat trick. Nashville moved Fiala because of his inconsistency and youth. Same argument here. Virtanen drafted the same year as Fiala and doesn't fit their age group - it's a team of veterans that want to win now. He'll also cost more than Sissons as he has arbitration rights and is 2 years to UFA. Doesn't bring the versatility either and not the player to trust with 1 minute to go. Don't see Nashville having an interest in that deal. 4. Stecher has arbitration rights. Doubt any team would want that hassle given the cap situation. Canucks probably won't even qualify him. 6. 7. 8. Hoping for draft picks for Sutter, Baertschi, Benn seems ambitious - seems more likely that the Canucks would have to add the pick. Fwiw Anaheim's beat writer earlier this year was suggesting Jet Woo to take on Benn as cap dump. Teams can see that Baertschi spent the season in the AHL, that Sutter was again injured and that Benn ended up as D7. They also know that the Canucks are looking to create cap space. Could see teams exploit that cap space is limited and ask for sweeteners to take unwanted contracts, especially if the team trying to move those contracts are in need of cap space to retain key players. Cap space is limited and the cap is probably not even going to reflect true revenue. Teams are set to lose considerable money next season. Some teams might operate under an internal cap to minimise their losses until better days. Not every owner might be willing to spend up to the cap next season as it's unlikely to reflect the true revenue situation. It could be a fair bit more challenging to trade unwanted contracts.
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There's no roster limit for the playoffs and no cap past the regular season. This year they've put a limit to 28 skaters because of the pandemic. Fwiw there were apparently initial discussions of only allowing those expanded roster players / black aces to play only if there were no healthy roster player left They've decided otherwise and any of the 28 skaters can suit up. Given the roster freeze and those initial discussions I don't think teams can remove roster players.
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Next season won't start before December or even January regardless of whether they finish this season or not. It's not viable for the league to operate without fans in the stands and they hope by delaying the start to next season there will be a better chance at normalcy. They project to lose 1 billion if this season isn't completed - it's a 5 billion dollar league. They estimate they can get back 300M to 500M if they play those games. It's still a considerable loss. Players are sharing the losses through the 50/50 split of hockey related revenue.
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They also know that he will be a group 6 UFA at the end of next season if he doesn't play in 78 NHL games by then. If he can't get some games he might decide to test free agency. To reach group 6 UFA: age 25, 3 years under a NHL contract and less than 80 NHL games. He is already 25, will have 3 pro-years and has 2 NHL games so far.
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They are using existing arenas for the games. Costs too much to re-set up all the cameras and arrange the settings to NHL standard + there is the whole sanitisation issue. Teams are going to be in and out of locker rooms and NHL arenas already have the technology and protocols in place. Canada won't be a hub city unless government lifts the 14 day quarantine requirement. It's believed that if the league can play in Canada their preferred destination would be Edmonton in the West. The Oilers have their own practice facility, there is direct access from the hotel to the arena - easier to preserve the bubble. Might not be feasible but the league would also prefer the local team not play at home. Reason why LA has emerged as a potential hub. Would think that Vegas is more of a late round option than a hub for the play-ins and 1st couple of rounds. Not sure there is enough ice for 12 teams + their black aces.
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He's also no longer waiver exempt next season.
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Players were informed that training camp won't start before 10 July - could be later. Players were talking of training camp of at least 3 weeks to have sufficient time to get back in game shape to limit injuries. Games more likely to start in August. Finals will likely be played in October. Next season won't start before December/January regardless of whether this season is completed or not. The league doesn't want to start next season until they can have fans in the stands - it's not viable otherwise.
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Even that seems high. What if he doesn't fit in or is unhappy - the team has changed and there's no guarantee that he'll perform under Green. With the salary cap being tight I wouldn't offer more than 1.075M - the amount that can be buried in the AHL. Also the KHL just introduced a salary cap and players have to take paycuts. The highest earner is Shipachyov at 1.75M. 3rd is Andrighetto at ~1.3M.
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Things that don't make sense about hockey.
mll replied to milk and honey's topic in General Hockey Discussion
Elements of an answer here using tracking technology: -
Canucks have 1 more win but 1 less in regulation. The tie breaker is regulation wins i.e. excluding OT and shootout wins. 28 for Nashville to 27 for Vancouver.
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Re the notes. 1. The Canucks led the league in goals scored off the cycle but it left them open to counter attacks. The Canucks allowed the 2nd most rush scoring chances against this season (while generating the least) according to Sportloqiq' video tracking. Not sure Green would want Pettersson against Fiala. Staal and Greenway are among the best at winning puck battles (per Sportlogiq' tracking) and Fiala has the skills to capitalise on rush chances. See more Green trying to get Pettersson out against the Galchenyuk line (their weakest) but the Wild will look to have him play against ErikssonEk. He's their shutdown C and a real pain to play against but isn't as much as an offensive threat. 2. Don't see Green wanting to waste Horvat against Koivu. Evason won't look for that matchup either. Their 4th line tries and score on the weaker lines. Would think it will be one of the bottom-6 lines playing against Koivu. Donato is not really a two-way player. That's why he's on the 4th line and not playing higher in the lineup. His defensive game needs work and he's weak along the boards. Horvat seems more likely the one tasked to shutdown Staal-Fiala. 3. ErikssonEk's line is their main shutdown line. The Wild are going to try and get him playing against Pettersson. Parise could move up to play with Staal-Fiala and re-unite the GEEK Squad (Greenway-ErikssonEk-Kunin) to shutdown Pettersson. 4. Their 4th line of Donato Koivu Hartman has been very good once put together and has also won them games - small sample though. Donato has scored 14 EV goals in just 10:30 of ice time. Green might prefer playing Beagle against them than Gaudette. The Galchenyuk line hasn't produced all that much and is their weakest defensively - might be more suited for a line that needs to be sheltered. It could change though if Zuccarello looks more like the guy they hoped to get. He was terrific in the playoffs for Dallas but has been a bit of a disappointment for the Wild. 5. The Wild have one if not the best D-corps in the league. Advanced stats and tracking shows them as elite defensively but let down by below average goaltending. Canucks are the opposite - towards the bottom defensively but stellar goaltending in Markstrom. Dumba has struggled a fair bit but was playing better when the season paused - he lost his shot. The break might have allowed him to reset though. Brodin was particularly impressive this season. Playing for parts with Soucy instead of Dumba showed more offence. 6. When did Dubnyk say he was undecided. Only saw him being candid about the number of items that still need clarity before going to a vote to all the players. There are a lot of safety concerns not just for themselves but also staff and their families and some players have medical conditions to consider. He's also not their starting goalie anymore. Stalock took over the starter job. They'll decide in camp who gets the net and Kahkonen is also in the mix per Evason. The Wild's PP has looked more dangerous once Fiala made his way to the 1st unit. Initially Boudreau just used their top 2 lines for the PP. Zucker-Staal-Zuccarello and Parise-Koivu-Fiala. Zucker has been traded and Koivu is not even on the PP anymore and is now C4. As for the pairings Soucy won't be the extra D. The last D spot is between Hunt or Pateryn. With the Wild seeing the Canucks as a physical team could see them more leaning towards Pateryn than Hunt. Pateryn can also kill penalties unlike Hunt.
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Koivu lost about 5 minutes of ice time at the end of the season compared to the start. It's more the improvement of their young players. It allowed to put slowing down veterans like Koivu in positions where they could still be efficient. Even Parise lost 1:30 in ice time compared to last season. Fenton cut through their core at the TDL a year ago. There was also an adjustment in style of play with Fenton believing that's it's becoming a rush league, while the Wild were mostly dump and chase. A big reason for their surge is the emergence of Fiala. He changed the dynamic of their team. Media, fans and even Boudreau gave him so much grief early on and he was also playing very poorly. Now they believe he's the game breaker they've been looking for since ages. The comparison stats posted a bit earlier in the other series thread are more concerning than puck battle wins. Sportloqiq showed that there was no category tracked since 1 January where the Canucks generated more than they've allowed. The Wild also generated more than the Canucks other than off the cycle and slot passes. The Canucks have players that can convert at a high rate though - ie they need less chances to convert. The Wild might generate more but they don't have the same high end finishers as the Canucks. They've allowed a fair bit less but they don't have a Markstrom in net. Over the season the Canucks led the league in goals off the cycle. They were last in generating rush scoring chances though and allowed the 2nd most rush chances against. Probably need to be mindful of counter-attacks with a player like Fiala who has speed and can beat goalies on clear-sighted shots from afar.
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Canucks' first-round pick transfers to Devils if they make playoffs
mll replied to xereau's topic in Canucks Talk
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They rank on point percentage and use wins in regular time as tie-breaker. After the play-ins they'll just rank 8-15 the 8 teams that have lost. Each of those teams have an equal chance (1/8th ie 12.5%) of moving up if the standard lottery on June 26 is won by placeholders 8-15th rather than the 7 teams already eliminated. Other than that possible 2nd lottery, the Calgary-Winnipeg play-ins is the outcome that won't impact the Canucks' ranking. TOR-CBJ and FLA-NYI will pick after the Canucks save for a lottery win. All the other play-ins could see Vancouver move up a spot if the better ranked team lost. Canucks are picking 13th if the order is respected. MTL CHI ARI WPG/CGY NYR and then Vancouver. One of those teams win (other than WPG/CGY) and Canucks move up. Match-ups shown by colour: Montreal Canadiens 12 .500 Pittsburgh Chicago Blackhawks 12 .514 Edmonton Arizona Coyotes 11 .529 Nashville Minnesota Wild 10 .558 Vancouver Winnipeg Jets 9 .563 Calgary Calgary Flames 8 .564 Winnipeg New York Rangers 11 .564 Carolina Vancouver Canucks 7 .565 Minnesota Nashville Predators 6 .565 Arizona Florida Panthers 10 .565 NYI Columbus Blue Jackets 9 .579 Toronto Toronto Maple Leafs 8 .579 Columbus Edmonton Oilers 5 .585 Chicago New York Islanders 7 .588 Florida Carolina Hurricanes 6 .596 NYR Pittsburgh Penguins 5 .623 Montreal
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This quote by Daly is about new ELCs - Boeser, Hughes, Makar, Tolvanen (KHL) would not be allowed to sign this season. It's about 1s time ELCs - Rathbone for the Canucks, Sorokin for NYI, Romanov for Montreal, Scott Perunovich for STL, Kaprisov for Minnesota but not Tryamkin who is RFA and already cannot play. The league does not want to allow new ELCs for this season while in the past those players were allowed to sign.
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Every player that belongs to the Canucks is on the reserve list. Horvat, Miller are on the reserve list as players under contract. Rathbone, Podkolzin as unsigned draftees. Tryamkin as a RFA. It's limited to 90 players. CBA - Article 1 Definitions: "Reserve List" means the list of all Players to whom a Club has rights including all Unsigned Draft Choices, all Players signed to an SPC (whether or not currently playing in the NHL), and all Players who have signed an SPC but who have subsequently been returned to Juniors. A Club may have on its Reserve List, at any one time, not more than 90 Players, which shall include the following: (a) Not more than 50 Players signed to an SPC and not less than 24 Players and 3 goalkeepers under an SPC. Age 18 and age 19 Players who were returned to Juniors, and who have not played 11 NHL Games in one season, shall be exempt from inclusion in the 50 Player limit.
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1/8th. Revenue is split 50/50 between players / owners. It's a 5 billion dollar league. Rough proxy 31 teams x salary cap x 2 Compliance buyouts have a cost and owners are already losing money. Per Friedman more and more executives are saying that owners don't want compliance buyouts as they don't want the extra cost. Compliance buyouts increase escrow - don't see players wanting them either. They'll probably operate on an artificial cap and find a mechanism to make up for the losses over time.
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He signed his ELC with Vegas and burned that 1st year - he never played a game but he was an option to play. It was a 1 year ELC because of his age. Like Boeser, Makar etc he was a 1st time ELC and not a RFA as he had never ever played in the NHL before. Vegas then traded his rights to NJD in the off-season and NJD signed him to his 2nd contract - 2 years at 4.5M.
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[Report] Canucks to part ways with Judd Bracket
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk