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Everything posted by mll
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Turning up the volume (Proposals ?)
mll replied to J.I.A.H.N's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Dumba is significantly better. He started last season so strong but suffered a season ending pectoral injury fighting Tkachuk. It's been a very long recovery. This season he has been forcing offence and it's been a bit of a mess for the first few months. He's starting to settle down now and is starting to play more like before his injury. Advanced stats websites and video tracking softwares have Minnesota as the best defensive environment in the league for goalies. They have been one if not the best at limiting high quality scoring chances and at keeping shots to the perimeter. Their goalies have performed way below expected. The Canucks are the opposite - near the bottom in defensive environment with Markstrom the reason the Canucks are not allowing considerably more goals against. -
Turning up the volume (Proposals ?)
mll replied to J.I.A.H.N's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Wild's owner Leipold has been saying he's not interested in just making the playoffs. He wants to have a team that can legit win a Cup. Money doesn't seem to be an issue in Minnesota. Guerin has now carte blanche to do as he will to build a legit Cup contending team. Making the playoffs is not an imperative. Leipold really doesn't want more participation ribbons - that's why he fired Fletcher and tasked Fenton to shake up their core. He referenced a sign at their practice facility that reads good is not good enough. -
Turning up the volume (Proposals ?)
mll replied to J.I.A.H.N's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Russo spoke to a few executives - they are doubting that Guerin will get the return that will make it compelling enough for him to trade Dumba. Dumba is just starting to get back into the groove. He looked incredible last year before that injury. -
[Proposal] Demko + Eriksson to Ottawa for Craig Anderson
mll replied to Patel Bure's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Seattle can pick upcoming UFAs. Every player that is not protected or exempt is available. There are minimum exposure requirements where there must be at least 1 goalie under contract exposed per team but Seattle can elect to pick another goalie from the same team. -
Turning up the volume (Proposals ?)
mll replied to J.I.A.H.N's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Markstrom is a UFA. He has no trade value for a team outside of the playoffs. The Wild also have Kakhonen who showed well when called up. There will be several UFA goalies available this summer - no need to trade for a pending UFA. Boeser would be unable to produce in Minnesota - it's wasting Dumba's trade value to acquire a winger instead of a much needed playmaking C. Don't think Minnesota cares much about Boeser now that they are falling head over heels for Fiala and finally have Kaprisov coming. The Minnesota crowd turned on Vanek despite him being a Gopher hero. Boeser has been playing with Pettersson - the Wild don't have that kind of player. Boeser can't seem to generate much alone. Wouldn't be a fit with how their roster is currently constructed. Maybe in a few years once the team is further along with legit playmakers to set him up but for now he would be wasted. It wouldn't be an intelligent use of Dumba's trade value. Severals teams are interested but Russso talking to execs around the league thinks that Guerin really doesn't want to move him. It's a bit like Poile with Jones - he didn't want to trade him but had to. They were desperate for a C1. Similar situation. -
[Proposal] Demko + Eriksson to Ottawa for Craig Anderson
mll replied to Patel Bure's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Vegas was forced to pick at least 3 goalies per expansion rules. It's 3 Gs + 9 Ds + 14 Fs + 4 at any position - 30 players drafted. A roster is only 23 players - so they will likely also pick upcoming UFAs to avoid having to bury contracts in the AHL and have their residual cap hits on their books. Pittsburgh paid a 2nd round pick for Vegas to select Fleury. -
Turning up the volume (Proposals ?)
mll replied to J.I.A.H.N's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Zucker is believed to have Vancouver on his no trade. There are lot of teams interested in Zucker and an executive was recently saying they can get a 1st for him without taking a cap dump back. Boeser's production would drop in Minnesota - they have no playmaking Cs. It's not a smart trade for them. Guerin is not looking to move Dumba but he knows very well that you need a C1 to compete. It's going to be more in the vein of a Jones for Johansen type trade. Either a young C1 or draft picks/high end prospects who have the potential to become a C1. Guerin doesn't want to move things around just to move things around. Guerin talked about that. Their group is very tight and Guerin says he's not looking to move players unless it makes their team stronger going forward. Adding Boeser but removing Dumba wouldn't. -
[Proposal] Tyler Toffoli and Wayne Simmonds
mll replied to Pears's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Simmonds is a UFA - Baertschi has 1 year left. NJD is far better off just letting Simmonds' contract expire than take an additional year of Baertschi. -
[Proposal] Tyler Toffoli and Wayne Simmonds
mll replied to Pears's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
NJD can see that the Canucks are going to have a bonus overage - they only have 30K in cap to cover some 1.7M in bonuses. They know very well that the Canucks need to dump cap and Baertschi is not in their plans as he is in the AHL and has been waived twice. It's going to cost to have a team take that final year of his contract. Lockwood is an upcoming UFA - his rights expire in August. Don't even think he alone would be a sufficient return for Simmonds. LeBrun says NJD is undecided on whether to move him - they like his influence in the room. He's implying that the return would have to be worth it to move him - a cap dump and an upcoming UFA likely isn't. He also thinks that Penguins will be interested because of their potential matchup with CBJ and then Washington with Wilson. -
[GDT] Around the NHL | February (02-08) 2020
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in General Hockey Discussion
And for now nothing for this: -
[GDT] Around the NHL | February (02-08) 2020
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in General Hockey Discussion
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He has an important role in Ottawa and even wears the A. Would think Ottawa will try and bring him back. Seeing Benn end up scratched for 17 games and only get back in due to injury - as 3rd pairing D not sure he'd see Vancouver as an attractive destination.
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Proposal Salary Cap Moves - Van - NJ , Van - Mtl
mll replied to kenhodgejr's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Eriksson's buyout cap hit is 5.7M next season followed by 3.7M and 2 other years at 700K. -
[GDT] Around the NHL | February (02-08) 2020
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in General Hockey Discussion
Losing their starter Kuemper rather than adding Hall. Kuemper was in the Vezina discussion when he got injured mid-December and hasn't played since. OEL hasn't played in February and Demers is also IR this month. Hall is leading their team in scoring since the trade with 19pts in 22 games. -
Proposal Salary Cap Moves - Van - NJ , Van - Mtl
mll replied to kenhodgejr's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
There are no roster limits past the TDL. Canucks need to clear 5M to add Simmonds - although NJD could retain up to 2.5M. Loui in Utica would only be 1.075M cleared. For now there's no room to do anything unless they can offload a contract or some of the injuries are season ending where LTIR cap space can continue to be used. Probably why LeBrun says Simmonds would only be an option if Ferland can't go - his LTIR cap space would then remain available. Wouldn't help the bonus overage situation though. -
Proposal Salary Cap Moves - Van - NJ , Van - Mtl
mll replied to kenhodgejr's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
There are discussions to keep the cap flat even after the new TV deal to have a better alignment between the actual salary cap and the salary cap hit used. Currently the league is operating on an artificially increased salary cap which doesn't accurately reflect the revenue situation and the players are paying for it through escrow. The increase might only be marginal for a few years to correct that and allow to limit escrow. -
[GDT] Around the NHL | February (02-08) 2020
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in General Hockey Discussion
Korpisalo has been skating and their goalie coach Legace assured last month that Korpisalo was their starter. Interesting decision ahead for CBJ. Tortorella has been trying to keep the hype down in his pressers. Seems like that train has left the station. The building is chanting his name and those jump hugs. Such a fun goalie to watch. Good for CBJ after losing so many players in the off-season. -
[GDT] Around the NHL | February (02-08) 2020
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in General Hockey Discussion
League leading 5th shutout for Merzlikins - all in his last 8 games. He has only lost 2 games in 14 starts since Korpisalo went down. -
Canucks and the Cap Over the Next Three Years
mll replied to jammin_jk's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Pettersson and Hughes will likely hit their schedule A - 850K each so combined 1.7M. Gaudette/MacEwen might have games played bonuses. CapFriendly shows the Canucks with 30'474.- in end of season cap space to cover those bonuses and any excess will get carried over to next season. That amount hasn't changed ever since Ferland went on LTIR as teams can't really bank cap space with LTIR in use. Today there's 32% of the season left so every 1M cleared today will only bank 320K and it goes down each day. At the TDL there's about 20% of the season left so a 1M is closer to 200K There will possibly be more than 1M overage as the team is not close to coming out of LTIR and not sure they will manage to trade out contracts. Ferland should be coming off LTIR soon but Leivo, Motte and Graovac are still injured so likely someone else going on LTIR to take him off it, rather than clearing actual cap space. Shouldn't this season's bonus overage appear somewhere under the cap projection for 2020/21. Once the TDL is past there should be a better indication of the carry-over - clearing a contract would help. As you've added the bonuses in 2020/21 to avoid a carry over to 2021/22 - Hughes with bonus is not 1.6M but 1.77M (916K + 850K). Lind similar issue. Unlike the salary the bonus is not averaged - Lind has a potential bonus of 200K in 2021/22. It's not a huge difference but it can be. For example Juolevi's potential bonus this year was 1.45M but next season it drops to 850K. Virtanen will be a UFA in 2 years. He is already in his 5th pro-season and UFA is the earliest between 7 pro-years and age 27. He also has arbitration rights. His agent will likely file as it gives him more leverage. It would be for a 1-year deal as 2 brings him to UFA. Teams can't walk away if the award is under circa 4.4M. Would think the Canucks would try to go longer term. 1 year would have him up at the same time as Hughes/Pettersson and with arbitration rights 1 year to UFA - Canucks might prefer to avoid that. The Canucks are not really in a strong bargaining position when it comes to off-loading contracts. Every team can see that Baertschi is not part of their plans. Would think that teams are more likely to look at UFAs from the teams out of the playoffs rather than take an additional year of contract - he's also not at NHL pace after spending nearly all season in the AHL. Last TDL there was no interest in Sutter per McKenzie. He still thought the Canucks could maybe trade him with salary retained. Now a year later and more time missed with another injury to his core - seems doubtful that a team would want to take that risk without compensation or sending another contract back. Earlier in the season a GM was explaining to Dhaliwal that the Canucks can't take an LTIR contract back in a trade because of their bonus exposure for Hughes and Pettersson. Ferland is an LTIR risk and Pettersson/Hughes are still on their ELCs. It gives even more leverage to other GMs. The TDL is soon here but can't say I'm as optimistic - I just think other teams have more leverage to exploit the Canucks because of the bonus exposure, Ferland's LTIR risk, Markstrom being UFA, Virtanen's arbitration rights and I would guess that Benning wants to bring Tanev back. I do note that you think otherwise but I see Stecher being on the way out instead. Would be surprised if Tryamkin gets 2M. Canucks have options now and he doesn't have much choice but to sign with them if he wants to play in the NHL. Would think closer to 1M. Don't think Juolevi would earn 1.8M in 2021/22 coming his ELC when you don't have him in the lineup in 2020/21. I would have him around 1M if he spends all of next season in the AHL. Noticed that you have bonuses for Podkolzin in 2021/22 but possibly not Hoglander as you have him at 900K. -
Canucks and the Cap Over the Next Three Years
mll replied to jammin_jk's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
LTIR is more of a hindrance than a help especially for teams with players on ELC who are bonus eligible. LTIR was the reason why Bowman moved Hinostroza who he called an untouchable just a few months earlier to clear Hossa's LTIR contract. When a team uses LTIR they can't really bank cap space so it creates bonus overages which then count against next season's cap space. It also limits who they can recall from the minors. -
[Speculation] Canucks interested in Wayne Simmonds
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Ferland's status might have been more uncertain when they had their pro-scout meetings. Pettersson also just got injured against Boston so they might feel the need to address that by the deadline rather than take the risk that Ferland can't fill that protection role anymore. -
[Speculation] Canucks interested in Wayne Simmonds
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Most teams like to add toughness for the playoffs. He got 5M this summer after all. That's based on reputation rather than last year's play. Would suspect the same could happen here. Didn't Benning also talk of the importance of toughness to protect their young players. Having someone like Simmonds allows young/skilled players to play with more confidence knowing that someone has their backs. Opponents are going to think twice before targeting them if they know they have to answer the bell. LeBrun seems to think that the Canucks pursued him last summer but he elected to stay in the East. If Ferland can't go and after what happened in Boston they might feel the need to add someone like Simmonds. Dallas apparently wanted to keep Hartman but he had arbitration rights and went off the grid - he was up in the wilderness and didn't even know he got traded. They couldn't negotiate a contract on time and didn't want to risk arbitration. -
[Speculation] Canucks interested in Wayne Simmonds
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Doesn't sound like NJD will just sell low. LeBrun says that the Devils are not sure they want to trade Simmonds - his impact in the room has been so important that they might prefer to just keep him. It will depend on the return. The plan for now according to LeBrun is to 1st see if Ferland can go. It's only if he can't that they would try and bring in Simmonds. -
[Proposal] ANA - VAN Trade Deadline
mll replied to Junkyard Dog's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Eric Stephens is the Ducks' long time beat writer who is now with the Athletic. He thinks a 1st round pick would not be sufficient for the Ducks to take the remaining year of Backes. For Arizona to move the final year of Stepan he thinks it would cost Barrett Hayton or Soderstrom. Eriksson has 2 years left so if that's the baseline a trade seems unrealistic. The Ducks don't seem to want term according to him. Their prospects are not quite ready so instead of signing a cheap UFA to a 1-year deal they are willing to take on a bad short-term contract for futures. For the Canucks Eric Stephens sees Baertschi or Benn (who is now D7) as cap dumps the Ducks would be willing to take for either a good prospect or a draft pick. He suggests the following trade: Baertschi or Benn + Woo + 2nd or 3rd round pick for Nick Ritchie if Ferland isn't right. --------------- Whether with the Ducks or any other team the Canucks are not in a strong bargaining position. CapFriendly shows the Canucks with 30K in end of season cap space ever since Ferland was put on LTIR. Although Ferland is getting close to a return it doesn't look like they'll be able to come out of LTIR soon with Leivo, Graovac and Motte still sidelined. Teams can see that 30K it's not sufficient to cover the bonuses of Pettersson/Hughes who are likely going to hit their schedule A of 1.7M combined. Earlier this season a GM was explaining to Dhaliwal that the Canucks cannot take LTIR contracts because of their bonus exposure with Hughes/Pettersson. LTIR limits how much cap space can be banked and often creates bonus overages that count against next season's cap. No team was apparently willing to give Ferland 4 years because of that LTIR risk. Their concerns have been confirmed this season. Ferland's LTIR risk gives even more leverage to other teams. Pettersson and Hughes will still be bonus eligible next season and the Canucks likely want to continue to add prospects going forward - Juolevi, Podkolzin are going to be bonus eligible too which makes Ferland's LTIR risk even more problematic. Other GMs know that the Canucks have had trouble finding a role for Eriksson, that Baertschi is not part of their plans after spending the majority of the season in the AHL. They are likely going to exploit that leverage. -
[Speculation] Canucks interested in Wayne Simmonds
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
One of the reasons for firing Shero was that ownership wanted a larger group involved in the decision process including their analytics department. Tyler Dellow is their head of analytics. He used to be a stat writer and has criticised Benning enough for the Baertschi trade. Given his previous takes and now that he is in the AHL doubt that they would be interested.