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Everything posted by mll
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[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
There's also Pesce and Skjei in a year with both also in their late 20s. Aho is also UFA in a year and will be turning 27 that summer. They have one of the best top-4 with Burns still playing at high level and a bargain for such a top-4. They really only have 2 tries left with this group. Their approach/philosophy is about to be tested. -
[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
They already have Thompson/Cozens at C1/C2. Cozens' breakout looks to have flown under the radar given what Thompson is doing but he is also having an incredible season. Pronman just ranked him 5th in his best players/prospects under age 23 list and comments that the Sabres have 2x C1s with him lauding Cozens' 2-way play. Buffalo seem to have only a remote chance of getting into the post-season and he doesn't really fill a long term need. Not that he would want to sign with them either. His agent calls him a C1 and Rutherford really insisted that he wants to get paid - teams like Buffalo, NJD already have their top-6 Cs set for the foreseeable future. He's also said quite a few times that he wants to be in the playoffs so can't really see him do like Gaudreau and sign with a team whose path to contention is still a bit blurry. Wouldn't be surprised if he has Boston at the top of his wish destination even if he doesn't end there at the TDL. -
[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Miller will be 30 when his deal starts. Carolina doesn't like handing out long term contracts to players in their late 20s because they believe players peak before that. Taking on a short term deal is not the same as committing long term to a contract that's not even buyout friendly. -
[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I wonder if some teams don't just throw trade interest out there, knowing that things won't go anywhere, just so that his side knows that they will want to talk to him in free agency. Francis was such a conservative GM in Carolina. He had such a deep prospect pool and pretty much refused to move any to help the team take that next step. Seattle always expected to be competitive. They were already projected to make the post-season last season but brutal goaltending did them in. Wright was picked 4th overall. If things go as they plan, they are not going to pick that high in a some time. They have such a shallow prospect pool and need to still build it so why would they tear it down before they even have an established structure. -
The Wild can't do trade 1. Greenway is probably getting traded this off-season but it's the Wild that will be looking to get a pick. They have only 9M in cap space for a roster of 14 - they need more cap space than that to ice a team. If they add near 4M net (Boeser less Greenway) it leaves them only 5M to add another 8 players - that's simply not realistic. Russo has been repeating that the Wild have no interest in Boeser either - they don't think he fits how they want to play.
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[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
CBJ and Detroit probably also going for Bedard. Don't see why they would want to improve their roster. They can try to get Horvat in free agency - doesn't have to be at the TDL when the prize is Bedard and they are already out of the playoffs. Fwiw John Davidson who was hired back on top of Kekaleinen just said they aren't trading Sillinger. CBJ are trying to rebuild. The Gaudreau signing was similar to when NYR added Panarin right in the middle of their own rebuild - an opportunity that only cost cap space. -
[GDT] Around the NHL | January (15-21) 2023
mll replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in General Hockey Discussion
Brutal for Pacioretty - only 5 games back from a torn Achilles. -
The lower cap hit doesn't really matter though - they have so much deadline cap space. Most of any playoff team which is pretty amazing given their buyouts' dead cap. They can add over 16M in contracts at the TDL and remain cap compliant this season. The Wild believe Faber can play top-4 - he's already ear-marked as their Dumba replacement next season. This past off-season Guerin explained that they are in between phases. No longer at the stage where they are chasing picks/prospects (they now have a top-5 prospect pool) but not yet at the stage where they are ready to sell their picks/prospects to go for it. His mandate is to build a perennial contender. In his mid-season presser this week he said that he thinks they can compete in the playoffs this year and it's the team that will tell him what he needs to do at the TDL. He talked of possibly adding if the team is doing well. They might not be willing to spend much just yet (ie he's unlikely to carve into their prospect pool) but he still expects them to win. The West is there for the taking.
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They have to clear cap this off-season. In his presser following the Boldy signing this week Guerin was talking about how they'll have to make tough decisions this off-season given their cap situation. They have 9.3M in cap space with a roster of only 14 and RFAs in need of raises and UFAs they'd like to bring back. Speculation by Smith and Russo is that they could be moving Greenway in the off-season to create some room.
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They can't retain him next season - they don't have the cap space and will actually have to move money out in the off-season after signing Boldy. Dumba told Guerin that Minnesota is home but he knows that his days are numbered. Saw that quote but it sounded like Guerin was talking of the now - he was talking these playoffs and not down the road. He said that if they trade him they would need a D in return to replace him. It can be a domino trade where they get picks/prospects and then trade for a replacement in a subsequent move but they aren't going to create a hole on D because he's an upcoming UFA. That's why I don't really expect them to trade him and instead keep him as their own rental.
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They can add over 16M worth of contracts at the TDL - they've avoided LTIR and have been banking cap space. They can't add term because it spills into next season where they are completely cap strapped and will need to clear contracts, but this TDL they project to be the playoff team with the most cap space (looking at CapFriendly). Roster limits are lifted at the TDL and with the cap space they have they can keep their roster intact and simply add to it provided only rentals. Moving Dumba weakens their D-corps and the cost to bring someone to replace him probably off-sets the return they can get for him. I wouldn't expect him to be traded.
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Guerin held his mid-season presser this week. He was asked about Dumba and confirmed that they've had calls but said he's not interested in weakening their roster so it has to really make sense for them. Goligoski has played 17 games so far this season - healthy scratched all the others. As poor as Dumba has been at times, they really don't have a replacement for him in house. Can't really see how the return for Dumba will off-set the cost to get a rental top-4 D to replace him. CapFriendly accounting for a cap of 83.5M next season shows the Wild with 9.3M in cap space with a roster of 14. How can they even fit Boeser and ice a team? The Wild are going to have to clear cap space and can't add a contract like Boeser's even at 50% retained.
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Russo has repeated to no end that the Wild aren't interested in Boeser. They also don't have the cap space after extending Boldy. They are going to have to move someone to be able to complete their roster. The Wild have 16M in deadline cap space. They really don't have to trade anyone off their roster to add a rental at the TDL. They can't add term given their cap situation next season.
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There are typically more trade options the nearer to the TDL. Not many teams have cap space. There also teams in LTIR that might need a clearer timeline to know if that cap space will remain available or not. It's more feasible cap wise to add a player closer to the TDL than today. Teams have more time to bank cap space + a player will be on the roster for a shorter period of time and therefore use a lower portion of their allocated 82.5M. Using CapFriendly with say Calgary as example. They have a roster of 22 and could add today a player without going over the 23 player roster limit. CapFriendly shows that they have ~2M in cap space today. That's the value of full contracts they can add today and still be cap compliant at the end of the season. That cap space will continue to increase every day as they near the TDL assuming there are no further roster movements. At the TDL that cap space with the exact same roster will be worth over 4M vs ~2M today, because they will have banked further cap space and there are only 41 days left and not the 80+ there are today. Trying to make a deal early could limit the number of interested teams. A team like Dallas doesn't have the cap space today to add Horvat without removing from their roster but at the TDL they could add him if they use a 3rd team for an overall retention at 75%.
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[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
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[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Seravalli and Wild's beat writer Joe Smith are at odds on that one. Smith has already mentioned a couple of times that the Wild are not believed to be interested in Horvat. Not sure Seravalli has sources in Minnesota either - the Kaprizov signing drama he built up turned out to be him getting played by his agent for negotiation leverage vs having any truth to it. -
[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
There are enough teams that could use a C2 or even a C1. As a rental he might have to play C3 but he has a say in free agency. His agent even calls him a C1 so would expect them to go to market targeting that C1 spot/money and not a C3 role for the long term. Can't really see why he would want to sign in NJD where he would be stuck behind Hischier/Hughes (not that they would give him the contract he wants either). Boston comes to mind with Bergeron already pondering retirement last off-season. Even if he isn't traded there at the TDL, would expect him to want to check if there's a fit in the off-season. Pastrnak, MacAvoy, Swayman are all younger than him and a solid core. There's also Detroit which was his team growing up - they've been taking steps and need a C behind Larkin and if Larkin walks the C1 spot even opens up. -
[Signing] Wilds Re-sign Matt Boldy 7x7M$
mll replied to timberz21's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Makes it evident why they can't add Boeser. They likely won't extend Dumba. Beat writer Joe Smith speculates that they could trade Greenway. He's apparently missed meetings already twice this year and could be on thin ice although they haven't disciplined him (other than a scratch where they said he was sick). Other players have taken steps to earn larger roles where now he could be replaced on that GREEF line. Got to also wonder about Goligoski. He has been a regular healthy scratch (played only 17 games) and is apparently frustrated. Only 2M but they can get someone cheaper to play D7. -
[Signing] Wilds Re-sign Matt Boldy 7x7M$
mll replied to timberz21's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Brackett was still with the Canucks that draft - Podkolzin taken 2 spots before Boldy. His 1st draft with the Wild was the Rossi pick the following year. -
[Proposal] Canucks - Wild Trade
mll replied to Odjick the Warrior's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Wouldn't structure a Horvat trade that way as it doesn't really maximise his trade value. Adding Stillman waters down the return as he's likely seen more as a cap dump than an asset. Dumba is not a cap dump so it costs to take him away from the Wild (there's even trade interest), but he's an upcoming UFA and the Canucks are out of a playoff spot. Not convinced that Dumba is the best fit for the Canucks either. He plays with Brodin who can cover for his gaffes but given the make-up of the Canucks' D-corps doesn't feel like a player they should target. The Wild can't really add a player with term or sign a costly extension given their cap situation next season. They have more than sufficient cap space to add a rental at the TDL without having to weaken other parts of their roster though. CapFriendly shows them with over 16M in deadline cap space. Horvat might well be traded as a rental. As of now the Canucks have not given permission to other teams to talk extension. There are enough teams around the league who need a C1 or C2 that Horvat doesn't have to commit already at the TDL either and he might not want to. The Wild are particularly weak at face-offs so Horvat would definitely help. If they add him they could move Hartman back to the Kaprizov-Zuccarello line with Horvat then playing with Gaudreau-Boldy. Their GREEF line obviously stays intact. Wild's beat writer Joe Smith, recapping Guerin's mid-season media availability, writes that the Wild are not believed to be interested in Horvat (or Boeser) though. -
[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
MacKinnon missed the playoffs 3x since making the NHL including a year where they were buyers at the TDL. Pettersson is going on 4 with the team already out before the TDL (other than some hope last year). MacKinnon played 2 years with O'Reilly - made the playoffs in 2014 and missed in 2015. They signed Soderberg to replace O'Reilly - they were buyers at the TDL that 1st year without RoR (but missed). That 2nd year without RoR they went in free fall - was Bednar's 1st year after Roy unexpectedly resigned really late in the off-season. They made the playoffs the year right after - which is also the year of the Duchene trade and haven't missed since. Landeskog was put on the trade block at the same time as Duchene. Similar situation as with Chychrun were Sakic didn't want to let them go unless he got the return he wanted. Duchene got so fed up with the uncertainty that he demanded a trade while Landeskog kept on saying he wanted to stay. Duchene was finally traded in November of the 2017/18 season. The year they finally decided they should rebuild is the year they made the playoffs. -
[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
mll replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Carlson took a slapshot to the head last month and is expected to be out months. Wouldn't expect them to move a roster D with his situation still so unclear. Teams also don't often remove roster players ahead of the playoffs. Even if their D-prospects are promising he's still further along and likely a better fit re their win now timeline. Where they invest could also depend on how the Carlson situation evolves. Backstrom was out till recently - ie they already had others replacing him to start the year and they can always switch back. Horvat to Toronto as a rental is not completely facetious. Dubas is in the final year of his deal and there's some rumour that it's pretty much the last try they'll give to their core if they fail again. Boston is so way ahead and 4th so far back that Toronto-Tampa seems a scheduled matchup for round 1.