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mll

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Everything posted by mll

  1. There was no trade interest the 2nd time around though other than from the Canucks. Arizona was desperate to off load his contract after the failed attempt a year earlier where he listed only Vancouver and Boston as destination he would be willing to go to. Rather than ask him to list his destinations they went out to try and find a trade 1st and then bring it to him to see if he would waive. Vancouver was the only team that showed interest. He had just had a rough season where he lost his top pairing spot to Chychrun.
  2. Kuzmenko is a bit more complicated because of his performance bonus. Bonuses are only accounted for at the end of the season and a team would need to have the necessary banked cap space to avoid an overage into next season. Teams in LTIR would have his bonus automatically carried over into next season - not ideal if he hits his full 850K when the cap might rise by only 1M.
  3. With the cap possibly only rising by 1M next season Kuzmenko's potential performance bonus could impact trade interest. He has a 950K cap hit but he is bonus eligible with a 850K target. If the team that trades for him doesn't have the banked cap space to pay his bonus it gets carried over into the following season. For teams in LTIR like Washington it's an automatic carry over into the following season as they can't bank cap space. Washington is cap strapped. They had to put Carlson on LTIR so they could activate Backstrom. Can't really see them adding an ELC player who could hit several of his targets when they are in LTIR.
  4. He might not be healthy during the buyout window - injured players can't be bought out. The buyout window runs from circa 15 June (depends on the finals) to 30 June. Canucks get a 2nd window if a player files for arbitration but only contracts 4M and above can be bought out during that 2nd window.
  5. Can't see why NYI would even consider the trade either. Lamoriello gave him an NTC for a reason. Pulock is a legit top pairing D - Romanov might not even be a top-4 D and Mayfield is a 3rd pairing D + he's a UFA. Moving him would create a significant hole in their lineup. Lamoriello also wants a defence 1st team and insists that it's defence that wins championships. If they remove from their roster it's likely F for F like he said in the summer, but can't see them creating a hole on D for a F.
  6. Taking Gardiner's LTIR back wouldn't help Carolina fit Horvat cap wise - they have currently some 650K and need to remove the difference from their active roster. For a team in LTIR: Active roster + LTIR contract <= 82.5M + LTIR contract The LTIR contract is removed on both sides of the equation. It doesn't create cap space on the spot but would allow them to bank cap space going forward. When in LTIR the difference between both sides of the equation is forfeited, while if they aren't in LTIR the difference between 82.5M and the active roster can get banked. On the day of the trade there's no real cap space created by moving an LTIR contract though - it only helps prospective cap space that can now get banked. (To be technically correct it removes the LTIR notional cap or ACSL but that's negligible - 14K in their case). With quite a few teams cap strapped, it might help to involve a 3rd team to trade Horvat at 1.375M with the maximum retention. With 42 days left to go at the TDL in a 185 day season on a salary of 4.45M that's roughly 1M left to pay. At 50% 2.75M and 500K in salary At 75% retained 1.375M and 250K in salary At the 2021 TDL, SJS got a 4th round pick for picking up 320K in salary in the Foligno trade between CBJ and Toronto. They also got a 5th round pick for picking up 130K in salary in the Janmark trade between Chicago and VGK. Last TDL, Florida got a 6th round pick and the rights to a 26 year old KHL player to pick up 265K in salary in the Domi trade between CBJ and CAR.
  7. 3 spots per division but 1 is a goalie so really just 2 skater spots to vote Bo in for the Pacific.
  8. Dhaliwal says he's not hearing Miller on the block. He also insists that the Canucks have been trying to trade the players he lists for months and months. Says they'll have to be creative to move them.
  9. Ty Smith was picked 17th overall and is in the AHL because he is still waiver free - Pittsburgh wanted futures and cap space. Vancouver didn't have cap space.
  10. Can't see why Nashville would create a hole in their lineup. C3 is a pretty important position for them too and it's not like they have a replacement available. Would expect them to simply trade Fabbro for a draft pick.
  11. NJD doesn't need Pettersson though. They already have Hischier and Hughes as their C1/C2 combo. Fitzgerald calls them their pillars to build around.
  12. I simply don't see Carolina interested in Horvat long term. He's shooting at 25% - that's hardly sustainable. He's not a playmaker either. He's been solid on the PP but Carolina probably doesn't have the same setting as the Canucks so his success there might not necessarily be replicable. He's also 28 when his new deal starts. Carolina promoted Eric Tulsky to AGM under Dundon and some believe he's being groomed to take over from Waddell. He comes from the analytics field and did work on ageing curves. He claims that forwards peak before 27/28. They are expected to extend Staal on a short term deal. Carolina has yet to hand out a long term contract to someone above 23 under Dundon/Waddell. They've had success this season despite Kotkaniemi not living up his deal but he's still only 22 so they might still be betting on his upside - he hasn't limited them. It's going to be interesting to see what they do with their veteran Ds Pesce/Skjei/Slavin as they near UFA - that's likely where their age approach is going to be tested + they are going to need a raise after them being on bargain deals. Also wonder also how comfortable they feel about their situation with Aho who only has a year left after this season. Can't see them adding a contract like Horvat's long term re his age and some of the uncertainty they have.
  13. Can't see LA being interested in Horvat. Doesn't really seem a fit for this season or long term when they have other needs. Danault is C2 in LA and doubt that's going to change anytime soon with McLellan in charge. Their 2nd line is the 1 constant in LA while the other lines have been shuffled. McLellan can't stop praising that line and it's importance to their success. Fiala, their leading scorer and 8M off-season signing, is down on their 3rd line because McLellan has no appetite in changing up their 2nd line and he has limited chemistry with Kopitar despite several tries. Fiala wants the puck all the time and simply doesn't mesh when he has to share the puck, so weirdly Cs that stay out of his way and are responsible defensively to cover for his defensive gaffes work best. That's not really a role for Horvat. He's obviously not going to play ahead of Kopitar. Also don't see LA interested in Horvat as Kopitar's replacement - they are grooming Byfield for that and if he doesn't pan out they can figure it out later. Horvat is not really a C1 and Danault has really been a perfect C2 for them.
  14. Pacioretty was just activated off LTIR which gives them a roster of 22. They project to have 650K to spend at the TDL - ie to add anyone they would need to remove from their playing roster. Last TDL where they were 2nd in the east only behind Florida and 3rd overall, they only added Domi (cost them the rights of a prospect that was drafted in the 3rd round). Don't see them spending much on the rental market - just hasn't been their approach. Also wouldn't expect Carolina to be in on Horvat long term - can't see them giving him the contract he seems to be looking for to play C2 behind Aho. Could see Horvat targeting Boston in free agency before looking into other teams. They are going to need to replace Bergeron soon (he was already considering retirement ahead of this season) - ie the C1 spot is open + Pastrnak, McAvoy and Swayman form a solid core and they are all younger than him.
  15. 185 days long this season. You can deduce it using the daily cap tracker on CapFriendly. They show the amount of days that have gone by already and the accumulated cap hit - doing the calc backwards shows that it's a 185 day season. Here's Vancouver's page: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/cap-tracker/canucks There's 42 days left at the TDL (might be off by 1 day - never know how they count). Horvat's cap hit is pro-rated but so is a team's remaining cap space. The pro-rata applies on both sides of the equation. If a team has no banked cap space they need to find the full cap hit to add Horvat otherwise they would be above the salary cap at the end of the season. CapFriendly shows the full cap hits that can be added - they already account for the pro-rata and take into account banked cap space.
  16. Not sure to quite understand the question but cap space is also dependent on whether a team is in LTIR and the amount of banked cap space they have. A team's prospective cap space is also pro-rated but banked cap space can help cover part of the cap hit of the player added. In LTIR the pro-rata wouldn't apply and they need the full cap hit available. The math can get a bit complicated so I find it just easier to use CapFriendly. If you go to each team's page, they'll show you how much each team can add in full cap hits so you don't have to do the pro-rata. They have the "current cap space" and the "deadline cap space". CapFriendly shows Vancouver with ~1.5M in cap space today as well as at the TDL as they are in LTIR and can't bank cap space. Quite a few teams are. Seattle has avoided LTIR. They have ~2.16M in cap space today, but if there are no further roster movements till the TDL they could add up to 5.1M in contracts then. If the trade is say 75% into the season and a team has always operated 1.5M below the 82.5M cap they would be able to add a 6M player then. 81M x 75% of the season + (81M + 6M) x 25% of the season = 82.5M. If a team has always been at the salary cap they would have already used up 75% of 82.5M and only have 25% of 82.5M left - ie to add say a 3M player they would need to move out 3M of cap space. That's also the LTIR situation where the cap space available is only prospective cap space as there's no banked cap space.
  17. LeBrun on Insider Trading says the Rangers told teams that called that he's not available - they very much still believe in his long term potential and also told him so.
  18. He didn't want to stay. His agent explained it.
  19. Can't see NJD doing that. Not an age fit, too slow + his attitude on the ice. That has made the rounds and would think teams have also caught it. Due diligence on character seems rather major for NJD who think some teams are sometimes too focused on talent and forget that that pieces need to fit in the room and on the ice. Dhaliwal doesn't think that the Canucks are even trying to move Miller. Maybe it wasn't just spin re the Rutherford comment this week about Miller needing time to adjust to playing solid 2-way C and referencing Crosby before winning in 2016/17.
  20. The reason given for making Ekholm available is that Nashville is "saddled with expensive, term-laden contracts" per the article. Miller would just add to it. When he traded Ellis and Arvidsson, Poile said they were in a re-tool to get younger. Then he went and got McDonagh which completely backfired - maybe time for them to commit to a true rebuild.
  21. Horvat is going to cost far more than just Severson. Also the strength of NJD's D-corps has been an integral part of their success and weakening it is probably not going to make them a better team. With retention they really don't need to remove from their playing roster to add - with the typical 50% retention at the TDL it might be sufficient to send Johnson's expiring contract the other way (he's buried in the AHL). Not sure they will add either. Making the playoffs is to get experience for their young players and adding would just force them into different roles instead of building up that experience for the future. If they add, could see them going after Timo Meier - young powerforward who has speed and can play away from the puck + existing chemistry with Hischier. Gives them a chance to see if they can extend him although cap space next season is tight - guess will depend on the Bratt contract. Don't see Carolina willing to pay the the price to get Horvat either. Pacioretty is nearing a return - would expect him to be considered as their TDL add. They are also completely cap strapped and adding would mean removing from their playing roster. Owner Dundon was very involved early on to make sure they had the right processes in place. He says you play today but want to play tomorrow and the day after - ie he doesn't want them to trade the future for the now. Waddell concurs where he says only 1 team ends up winning so TDL spending is often vain.
  22. "Failed" but not really failed - although the on-ice product didn't live up to what they hoped, they still fixed the other parts of the organisation and it's now paying off. They had a stronger framework for their re-tool where they had a long term vision which is the difference to the Canucks. Shero himself explained that building through the draft would take far too long and that he was going to accelerate the process by targeting players further along which is no different than the Benning strategy. They kept their 1st, just like the Canuck initially did, but moved quite a few 2nds and 3rds for players in their mid-20s. - 2nd + 3rd for then 24 year old Palmieri - 3rd for then 25.5 year old Beau Bennett - 2nd + 4th for 22 year old Mirco Mueller (got a 5th in exchange) - 2nd + 3rd for soon to be 27 year old Marcus Johansson They traded Larsen for Hall who was just about to turn 25 at the time of the trade. They traded Henrique for Vatanen who was 26 at the time of the trade. Hughes was drafted in 2019. Hall had missed the major part of the season leading to that draft - he played only 33 games in 2018/19 after winning the Hart and the team making the playoffs the previous season. They thought they could make the playoffs the upcoming season with him back healthy. That 2019 summer, Shero acquired Subban at his full 9M cap hit for 2x 2nds as well as Gusev for a 2nd + 3rd. By December they were so far out of the playoffs (3rd last in ppct on 1 December) that he traded Hall who was in the final year of his deal - he was fired shortly after. It didn't make sense to sign Hall long term when the team was in such disarray. They had also identified Hischier/Hughes as the core to build around and Hall long term wouldn't fit their timeline. NJD didn't succeed on the ice during their re-tool, just like Vancouver didn't, but it doesn't mean they weren't trying. It's why Shero lost his job. Fitzgerald took over In January 2020 with NJD stuck already at the bottom of the standings and Hall already traded. It bought him some time (there was also the pandemic and they had key injuries to Hischier/Hughes/Blackwood) but this season he's under pressure to make the playoffs. Shero sold their upcoming UFAs at the TDL when they were out of the playoffs, but he always tried to improve the team in the off-season by going for players further along. They didn't sign anyone long term that didn't fit the Hischier/Hughes timeline - reason why Palmieri, Johansson and Hall were traded as well as Coleman, and they were also already out of the playoffs by the time of the trades which made deciding to move on easier. In parallel to trying to fix their roster, they also worked on setting up their culture and building a team. They talked about the importance of becoming more than just guys playing hockey together - brotherhood was written on their walls under Shero. They used to go to the Military Academy West Point as part of their team building - don't know if they've gone since the pandemic. They also talked about how some teams have a lot of talent but don't do well because they haven't built a team. They pointed out early that building a team is not simply hoarding talent but by making sure pieces fit together. Again last month Fitzgerald was talking of the importance of complementary players like Tatar, Haula, Wood saying you need these kind of players in your lineup too. Already in 2017, Cassidy in Boston was pointing out how NJD was such a fast team. They knew their identity early. Vancouver still doesn't seem to know what kind of team they want to be. They don't even seem to know who their core should be past Pettersson while once NJD knew their pillars were going to be Hischier/Hughes (that's how Fitzgerald calls them) they built to their timeline.
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