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knucklehead91

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Everything posted by knucklehead91

  1. Perry's avg TOI was 13:44 Anderson's avg TOI was 16:25 Toffoli's avg TOI was 17:31 Kotkaniemi's avg TOI was 14:48 Typically guys playing less than 15 minutes are 3rd line players. Kotkaniemi had plenty of chances to succeed and he did not take advantage of the opportunities. He failed to produce. Like you said, he was paired with guys like Toffoli, Anderson, Perry as well as Drouin.... Yet he only produced 5 goals and thats with a 60%+ oZS and nearly 2 mins of PP time per game. https://www.rotowire.com/hockey/player.php?id=5696 Okay so looking at your link, if anything it indicates that Toffoli is the driving catalyst for possession for the most part. Kotkaniemi doesn't seem to drive possession in any of the combinations, he is never the common denominator. And like you said, Anderson and Perry's CORSI was quite bad without Kotkaniemi...... And without Toffoli, so it's not that they are missing JK, maybe its TT that is the reason their CORSI drops. Its such a mess of numbers and variations that it doesn't give a clear picture. Like I've said before, CORSI on its own isn't a justifiable stat to look at. You need to factor in zone starts. 58% CORSI and a 71% oZS = losing possession. He is a Centre.... He should have a good 200ft game and be helping drive possession, he is involved east+west north+south, yet no one seems to benefit from him. JK without Toffoli or Perry had a 50% CORSI..... with Toffoli his CORSI jumps to 60% I'd say Toffoli is driving the Possession. If you look at those CORSI numbers... They are all over the map with each combination for the most part, the only consistent CORSI boosting player is Toffoli. Also... Just to note, Montreal's on ice sv% in the playoffs Kotkaniemi .858oiSV% with JK on the ice in the playoffs.... So defensively he was kind of an absolute tragedy. Tofu was .894oiSV% Anderson .916oiSV% Perry .909oiSV%
  2. When a guy gets 60%+ of offensive zone starts, that is plenty of opportunity. Then to add to his zone starts he was gifted PP time and lots of it and he has done little to earn that PP time and proved nothing on the PP First season: oZS 68.1% in all situations oZS 61.9% at even strength oZS 62.8% 5v5 close oZS 65.5% 5v5 tied PP 152.5 mins his PP unit only produced 9 goals His CORSI was 60.5% in all situations. When you look at his zone starts 68.1% in all situations his line is losing possession. They dont drive possession. His CORSI should be closer or higher than his oZS if he is truly an effective player. They get an opportunity to start in the oppositions end, yet the puck is coming back the other way and possession is swaying in favour of opposition. Sure he is at 60% CORSI, but considering he spends most of his starts in the other zone, an 8% spread between zone starts and CORSI is a bad sign. And his short time in the NHL has continued that trend. His 2nd season was nearly a 10% difference in zone starts and CORSI…. Last season was a closer gap with a 4% difference. Which is improvement, so I will give him kudos there. But when you get into his zone starts its consistently at 60%. He logged 106 mins of PP time and his PP unit produced 7 goals. He has been given 14 mins of TOI because that is all he has shown he is worth with all the zone starts in his favour to show some offence and all the PP time he gets and yet he consistently fails to produce or improve the lines chances of capitalizing.
  3. Definitely has great upside, just turned 21 and had 8 playoff points in 19 games last season. 4 goals in 10 games in the playoffs before as well. Montreal mismanaged Kotkaniemi and he will flourish in Carolina, his floor is a second line center with good size. Okay so the other thing I’d like to add to this is, how many years do you allow room for stalled development? And how much of that is on the player and their will/drive to succeed, versus being mishandled? Bo Horvat for example was a very weak skater in his first year. He came back the following season and he was also kinda just thrown into the NHL, he turned his weakness into a weapon in an offseason. His skating is one of his best attributes. Hes extremely powerful, so bloody strong on his feet. Kotkaniemi is entering his 4th season and in his last 2 seasons, there has been a fall off from his rookie season. He hasnt built on it or made improvements. Why would a team, surrender draft picks, for a mishandled, stalled development, unimproved player? Why pay draft picks for a broken project that might take a few years to develop, who will be closing in on UFA years, when you could take your 1st round draft pick and have a fairly successful chance at drafting a player of Kotkaniemi’s projection. You could draft and develop a guy in your own system and handle him from the beginning until the end. Instead of taking on someones mishandled and derailed development project? Idk I just dont think it was a great move at this point in time, but only time will tell.
  4. His deployment was tons of offensive opportunity. Maybe a few more minutes of TOI… but he never really earned it. Regardless he was getting 14 mins average and lots of PP time.
  5. But would you call that massive upside? Or a letdown for a 3rd overall pick. If Turris is his ceiling… what is his floor? Its kind of a scary thought that, Kotkaniemi’s peak projection or comparable I should say is Kyle Turris, IF he can reach his potential. No doubt Turris was a decent NHLer.. but hes the kinda guy you can find in the 2nd round or 3rd round.
  6. Johansen has been a beast in the circle since his 2nd year and hes pretty damn good in his own zone. JK hasnt taken control of the face-off dot and he is quite weak in his own zone. He has time to develop, but Johansen rapidly improved and made an impact on the PP whereas JK hasnt been very effective on the PP. Kotkaniemi is on a slow progression, similar to Turris.
  7. 1) Scheifele has consistently improved each year since his first season. His point totals have increased almost every single season. His goals have consistently climbed and now sit around 28-35 per season. Do you honestly see Kotkaniemi producing 30 goals consistently in the NHL? 2) Mark Scheifele > Kotkaniemi in every way shape and form and at the same point in their careers. Scheifele has a nastiness to him, where as Kotkaniemi is more of a pest. Kotkaniemi was 3rd overall…. Centres that were drafted between 3rd and 5th Between ‘99-2017 Pettersson D. Strome Draisaitl Bennett Lindholm (Monahan was 6th) Galchenyuk R. Strome Johansen Duchene Schenn Turris Toews Backstrom H. Sedin At the end of Kotkaniemi’s career, how many of those guys careers will Kotkaniemi surpass? I’d say his ceiling is closer to Turris or Ryan Strome than Scheifele. And he’d be fortunate to even be a Turris type of player. His season stats are similar to Turris’s first few years and he is utilized similar to Turris I dont see him ever turning into a Scheifele type player imho
  8. Okay so define his upside and name a comparable player that you believe Kotkaniemi has the potential to turn into and how was Kotkaniemi mishandled?
  9. Considering Kotkaniemi was generally ranked in the teens for the most part and he only jumped into the top 5 due to a WJC Performance, i’d say he was drafted at 3rd overall based on a single performance rather than a particular skill set/package. https://www.tsn.ca/kc-1.1115400 https://thehockeywriters.com/2018-nhl-draft-final-consensus-rankings/ I wouldnt call him a complete steal right now. Maybe in a couple years if he can turn into this “massive upsided” player. But right now his upside is not looking like a 1st line player. Nor a strong 2nd line player. 1) he is weak on faceoffs up to this point 2) he has been given 60%+ offensive opportunities in all situations and has very little contribution 3) his offensive point shares were .3 this season and .2 the previous. 4) with 106 mins of PP time this season his power play unit produced 7 goals. 5) he is used HEAVILY offensively and is not producing. He was given so many opportunities to produce and was not living up to the expectations. In 171GP he has 62points… which is pretty much 30 points a season. Granted he is 21 and there is room to grow and improve, but up to this point there doesnt seem to be a ton of progress being made each season.
  10. Personally I do not see massive upside to Kotkaniemi. I see a guy whos stuck/lost between 2nd line potential and 3rd line reality and unfortunately he is not a 3rd line player. He should be more of a top 6. But I do not see it. He has been given more opportunity than Virtanen was ever given and Kotkaniemi just isnt producing. Granted he IS only 21 and there is time for him to turn it around. but I see some concerns with him. I’ll do a little breakdown of him later tonight when Im off work and just give you my perspective. Also, Petey potentially accepting a 1 year deal overpayment? 100% possible and not for the money. Carolina is a contender and has a good young core and has a chance to win for a few years, the exact type of environment Pettersson said he wants to be part of. A winning team and a team that always has a chance. Do I think he see’s Vancouver as a team that fits that mold? Yes. Vancouver is an up and coming team, young and has a pretty lengthy window to win considering how young our core is and how many stabs we can take at winning a cup from here on out with Petey, Hughes, Demko, Horvat, Boeser, Hoglander, Garland, Rathbone, Juolevi and Podzkolzin making up the core. We have a solid young team that has a few learning lessons ahead and need a bit more experience to really take over the league. But we are not far off at all imho. Also, if you were a contending team and could afford to offersheet Pettersson at 10.5mil for 1 year, would you pass up that opportunity to solidify yourself as a clear cut cup contender? you wouldnt go for it? Especially with a relatively young core as a contending team, you’d have his RFA rights and could re-sign him for slightly less and have another shot at it for another 2-3 years possibly and those 4 1sts would be borderline 2nd round picks if you are finishing in the top year in and year out. Not to mention IF it goes to complete sh*t in that 1 year, guess what Pettersson isnt locked up long term and can possibly get moved out of there. However I dont think that Pettersson is that type of person to pull that kinda crap. Like I said, I was using Pettersson as an example of maybe paying closer to the value of the played rather than overpayement. 2.5mil player for 6.1 on a contender instead of 2 3mil players or 1 6mil player. Coulda gone the free agency route and grabbed Saad for 4.5m
  11. What I was trying to imply was, why not offersheet a guy worth the contract you are handing out. I was using Petey as an example because he is vulnerable for an offersheet and if Carolina made a little room, they could put us in a very tough spot to match. Of course we would end up doing whatever it takes to match the offersheet, but it will screw us in cap room and there will be casualties. Why over pay? Instead of paying a 2.5mil player 6.1mil to try and help you win (especially when Carolina’s window to win is open) why not pay 6mil or 5mil or 8mil for a 6, 5 or 8mil player. They could have 1 really good player or 2 decent players for 6.1mil instead of 1 alright player for 6.1m and a $20 signing bonus lol.
  12. I guess what I am trying to get at with using Pettersson as an example is, why not offersheet a guy who is close to the dollar value you are handing out. Like im sure there is an option this year or next year where a player will be eligible for an offersheet of say 5mil who is a 4-5 mil player. Like why not put your cap to good use and utilize the value of a player versus the cap hit. A 2.5 mil player being paid 3.6mil over and above is like a wasted roster spot, you could get 2 legit 3 mil players instead of 1 for the price of 2.
  13. Right, but thats kinda the point im trying to make. Why not make a little bit more room and reach for the stars… Why pay 6mil for a 2.5mil player… when you could spend say 10mil and get a player that is actually at that value of the cap hit. Carolina is a team that is a contender imho. Would you not agree? If so, who gives Carolina a better chance at a cup. JK or EP? Make the room and go all in. Dont do some slap d*ck operation and overpay some 2.5mil player 6mil to come and “help you win” for an extra 3-4mil you could have Pettersson instead of “5 goal never been on pace to score 15 Kotkaniemi” Move Trochek out, dont spend 6.1mil on JK and offersheet a legit talent like EP for 9-10mil and go all in.
  14. Best defensive young centre???? Uhhhh… dude he wasnt used defensively at all. 63% oZS in all situations. He was given a ton of offensive chances and produced 5 goals. 106 mins of PP time this past season and how many PP points? 0G 4apples…. 4 bloody points with 106 mins on the PP.
  15. Why not reach for the stars? Pettersson>Kotkaniemi in every single way shape and form. Why offersheet a 3mil player for 6M+ When you could offersheet a 8-9M player for 8M? Its a 2mil difference in cap for a 5mil+ Difference in quality. You’d think if you had 6mil in cap space to offersheet a guy, you’d make a little extra room and go for the better player if you are actually interested in offersheeting a player and its not out of revenge. At least if I was a GM and in that position I would look at Pettersson and see if there are other options before settling on Kotkaniemi. The tweets and all that crap that followed the offersheet clearly show they are trolling MTL and the Bergervan. Why else would they toss in the laughable $20 signing bonus and make a stink of it online and refer to the MTL offersheet on Aho? It was a troll job, Montreal started a war, Carolina poured gas on an open fire and its going to come back Carolina’s way again in the future if the Bergervan is in the league, be it in Montreal or elsewhere. He’s going to try and give Carolina another F U.
  16. First off.... in bolded.... HOW DO YOU LEARN WITHOUT MAKING MISTAKES??!?!?? YOU LEARN FROM YOUR MISTAKES, YOU LEARN WHAT WAS RIGHT AND WHAT WAS WRONG. If you make a mistake and do not learn from it, then yea, you aren't going to change and you are a piece of sh*t. The kid has made a mistake and is going to go through the process of understanding just how serious his act was and the severe punishment he is beginning to see, banned from OHL, despite being drafted and you can bet your a$$ that the NHL will probably have a stance on the matter and he will have to go through counselling and various steps of behavioral therapy before he is accepted in the NHL. Also....Thousands of years?? There are 10000000000000000x more ways to influence youth in todays day and age compared to your teenagers 1000 years ago. And if thats the case Alf, if for thousands of years this negative influence has been in society, then over the course of time we have been wired from the beginning of time to be pieces of sh*t. Get real dude, todays day and age has so much more influence on youth and improper behavior. There was a time when guys would get the door first, carry an umbrella for a girl in the rain, pick her up and drop her off, have a nice night out without focusing on getting their d wet. Women WERE treated with respect, there was the odd few here and there that treated women like garbage. Nowadays when a guy takes a girl out for dinner, he's expecting to get laid and he's pissed when he doesnt atleast get his d sucked after he bought her drinks all night or treated her to dinner, guys complain about it and feel they deserve to get laid after supplying food and alcohol. Guys used to go out and actually dance, now when they go out, its to get blackout wasted, buy drinks for a girl and try and take them home, there is hardly anymore "dancing" girls go out to dance, guys go out to get laid. The days of gentlemen are long gone. Its a new age being influenced heavily in music and social media. Guess what Alf, people are able to learn from mistakes and make changes. If society viewed every screw up like you, we'd be f***ed. I am not defending his crimes, I am allowing room for change and hoping that he can right his wrongs and become a better person. Your view is that of a toxic person that society needs to steer away from. Casting every individual away who makes a mistake will get us nowhere. We should try to correct this behavior, not shun it to the outside and allow this person to continue behaving in such a way. How would you like it if you said something on these forums that did not sit well with anyone and we all just straight up said f**k you Alf, you are a slime ball and then proceeded to ban you without giving you a chance to correct yourself? How would you feel? Would you even bother trying to change knowing you will never be accepted again? Probably definitely most certainly not. You would resent us and give us the big F U and continue on in your old ways. You'd just find yourself in another forum page spewing the same negative crap and never learning the lesson.
  17. Thats good with me. If you don't see the influence in todays age as an issue and not worth discussing, then your head is in the wrong place. You clearly do not seem to care about fixing the problem, which starts at the top. Mailbox man aint the problem, he's a product.
  18. Forgiveness and change doesnt happen over night. Do you really think if he comes out and says sorry today it washes all of it away and hes a better man? It takes time for him to show changes and show you are sorry. You cant just change on a dime and expect it to be a genuine change, it seems pretty fake to do it in an instant. You clearly stated you hated the kid before giving him a chance to show change, he f***ed up and Im not denying that, he made a huge mistake. He is hopefully going to learn from this. What do you expect him to prove he had sex with someone and didnt take a photo and show it to everyone??? Not everyone can apologize right away, apologies come when you realize what you’ve done and the severity of it. You say sorry when you mean it, not for the sake of saying sorry. Do you think he is genuinely sorry if he was to apologize as soon as sh*t hit the fan? He needs to learn his lesson first and come to terms with his actions before he can give a genuine apology. I know personally I dont want to hear sorry unless you f***ing mean it and you show it. He could choose not to comment on the matter. “no comments” At least he is making statements. Just to speak about the influences for youth growing up, this guy makes songs attacking the mainstream market that targets young kids. Listen to the lyrics. Also I am in no way shape or form justifying ANYTHING. I am pointing out a serious issue, its a f***ing problem. How do you teach kids or influence youth to be better, when all these celebrities are pushing lyrics and videos and a lifestyle that is not at all reality or acceptable. Its a serious problem man and the worst part is its not just about disrespecting women, its drugs, gangs, violence, murder, packin heat etc. Its serious issue Also who the hell heard of Logan Mailbox prior to the draft?? You are holding a nobody who was brought into the spotlight as a top of the game kinda of celebrity as if he was a big deal. His situation is a bigger deal than he ever was or will be. We heard about his statements before he was ever drafted. The kid wasnt really heard of in headlines or associated with the NHL and now his dirty laundry is being aired to the world. How would you like to go from being a relatively unknown in the world, to the spot light of one of the big 6 sports in the blink of an eye, for bad reasons and all anyone can think of or talk of is how you f***ed up and you are a piece of sh*t at the age of 18-19. Im sure you would be clueless as to how to make it all go away and try to focus on doing the right things as fast as possible, so what if he had to get some help saying or doing what he should do to calm the storm. He isnt going to give any heart felt apology in the middle of hell. Its not on him to make that draft selection, thats on the organization who believes he can turn the corner and maybe with the right support, be a better person. Or they are drafting him for their own selfish reasons. He requested to not be drafted, MTL went against that statement and now he will now be property of the Montreal Canadiens and within that organization hopefully he will have a lot of resources at his disposal to right his wrongs. The #metoo movement only took how long to stand up? And it was only the centre of attention for a few months? Why is it still not the centre of attention? It’s still a topic, but its definitely not in the spotlight as much anymore. Is that because we have fixed the problem or that not enough people take it seriously enough? It took a long time for it to come together, yet there are meme’s and jokes made about the #metoo movement. Does that sound like its being taken seriously? Yes Mailbox should know better, but its hard to know what wrong and right when in the media women are not treated respectfully or viewed with respect. Respect not rights. Respecting boundaries. Womens rights or respect?? Rights and respect are not the same thing. Im talking about respecting women. Disrespect is all over the place. (See the songs I linked above) Women are viewed in the media as a piece of meat. Not only is it coming men, but women themselves are guilty of not respecting their bodies they flaunt their body parts and expect a man to care about their feelings and who they are when all women care about is looking good and posting nothing but provocative pictures and videos to get attention for the wrong reasons. Lets be real here.. he was drafted… that does not guarantee ANYTHING. He has a loooong way to go to become an NHLer first of all, then to prove that he is better than most defensemen and get paid big bucks and do it consistently each and every year at the top level. Nothing about his future is set in stone, aside from death and taxes. He has been suspended indefinitely by the OHL, thats a pretty big statement. Dont be surprised if the NHL takes some sort of stance on the matter. Its not a good image for the league and its definitely not a good image on the Canadiens, especially if this kid does not figure it out and make some serious changes. You are blatantly hating on someone for f***ing up, you have almost zero room for giving the guy a second chance and you are assuming he will be a multimillion dollar athlete. All of which takes time, including a genuine apology. Let it come from the heart and not from a piece of paper. Give him the time to make changes and save your hate for when he fails to learn his lesson.
  19. But why offersheet for 6.1mil for 1 season with a $20 signing bonus? I mean i guess the 6.1mil is an excessive amount of money and is kinda like a signing bonus. Idk man it just seems too much like a you did this we’ll do that kinda deal. Like why offersheet JK when they could attempt to make space and offersheet Pettersson? If they have room for 6.1mil Im sure they have room or could easily make room for an extra 2 mil and offersheet Petey at 8mil
  20. Or could it be a joke that backfired on Carolina? They saw an opportunity to offersheet a young guy on MTL and pay him WELL over what hes worth pretty shortly after MTL Offer sheeted Aho. Especially it being a 1 year deal and $20 signing bonus. I feel like it was a complete troll job that backfired. I’d say Bergevin made it out of this situation by the skin of his teeth. Lost Kotkaniemi, but got a 1st and 3rd in compensation and got Dvorak whos under contract at a good cap hit for 4 more years and still have a 1st round pick at the end of the day. It would have been f***ing hilarious if he lost Danault and Kotkaniemi and wasnt able to acquire Dvorak
  21. You’re damn right and this is just the tip of the iceberg. Youve got songs about drugs, gangs, violence. There is so much influence on all the wrong things. Yes the only thing to do is the right thing, but its a blurred line of whats right and whats wrong. If there was more songs and lyrics about respecting women and it was made “cool” we wouldnt see as much of an issue with disrespect for women, or as you pointed out LGBTI, drugs, gangs, violence etc…
  22. I strongly disagree with anyone deserving hate before deserving a second chance. How much of women being mistreated, used and tossed aside like a piece of trash is “normalized” in society? Its in music, movies, pornography, popular apps like instagram, tiktok, snapchat, groups of “players” all trying to put another notch on their belt and then the music they listen to goes to support that kinda mentality that its all about b*tches and h*es rather than women and people. A lot of kids listen to rap and rap has a big influence on “how to be cool” and rap has zero respect for women. Do you think listening to rap for a life time will ever teach you how to be a gentleman? All your buddies boast about banging someone at school and givin daps for getting in a girls pants. You think they give a f**k about the girl they just hooked up with?? They just care about writing her name down on their list of girls they got with. Its a mentality that someone doesnt just think with and live with on their own, theres influence on this behaviour and it comes from groups of people, or the “icons” who throw out a new album, or from a persons curiosity and seeing the way women are treated in porn, the worst part is its all easy and free access to this kinda mentality. Instagram, tiktok, snapchat, porn, music, friends, cliques at school all these places of influence and what normalizes abnormal behaviours. Hes a kid, hes easily influenced and he f***ed up, he is learning a huge life lesson and until these celebrities who are making millions of dollars off these kinds of lyrics or music videos and crap like that, stop normalizing it, its always going to be a problem. Whos to say his buddies arent showing them last nights conquest and how is he to know if she gave consent to being recorded or for it to be shown? Behaviours like this have become normalized and respect has been forgotten about. Where in society do you see respecting a woman as a topic? It doesnt get talked about. Women do not get treated with respect and women are also guilty of not respecting themselves which feeds into this awful mentality that women are beneath men and men can do as they please. Hes one kid out of millions who think and act that way. Dont hate someone for being mislead by the countless and easy access to forms of influence. Notice how a group of guys all gathered around a phone to see an image? They are all wired that way to think its okay. Its not and it never will be. If he f***s up again, then sure you are fair to feel hatred towards him if thats how strongly you feel about it. I’ll be extremely disappointed if he doesnt learn from this lesson. But he deserves a chance to show change and maturity, he like all kids growing up in todays society are battling countless amounts of influence from all different areas. We didnt have those kinds of influences or at least not nearly as many growing up. You’ve been wired to hate someone for wrong doings and not consider forgiveness. Would you like to live in a society without forgiveness? We as a society will not get anywhere if we: 1) do not live from our mistakes and 2) do not allow room for forgiveness If you f*** up and then right your wrongs and no one is willing to accept it and forgive you, what is the point of trying to change if no one will forgive you?
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