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Noble 6

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Everything posted by Noble 6

  1. This is the place that expanded my hockey fandom and I learned about the NHL in ways that poured over into every aspect of my life. This was the place that I learned a lot about how expansive an NHL organization is. As a young kid and casual fan, I just saw the Sedins, Burrows, Kesler, Hansen, Bieksa, Edler, Luongo, etc. on the ice every game and a lot of success that came with that. I was young and thought that we'd have these players forever and we'd be the best team in the league forever. Once that changed after the Torts year and the Benning hire is when I actually became more invested as a fan, trying to find every possible reason why our success had vanished. That led into learning about concepts like player ageing curves and declines in production, prospect development, drafting, cap management, etc. I remember reading every single post in every prospect thread over a summer and loving every second of it after not even knowing what an NHL "prospect" was a month earlier. As I grew up and expanded my mind, one of the biggest areas where I could actually feel that happening was in the hockey world because of all the time I spent on CDC. I went from watching games as a casual fan just hoping for the Canucks to win to following the entire league in detail. It felt like I knew every team's cap situation, roster and prospect pool and every player's cap hit, position, number, handedness, special teams usage, player type, path to the NHL, etc. I could literally feel myself absorbing and applying concepts that I did not have the capacity to years or even months earlier and figuring out how they related and interacted with each other. The entire hockey world and outside world grew exponentially and I grew as a person. My favourite time on here would have to be following the 2018 draft. I followed that entire draft year and developed informed opinions on the entire top half of the first round as we knew the Canucks would be in that range and had a chance to land a good player. That was the year of defensemen with Dahlin, Bouchard, Boqvist, Dobson, Merkley, Smith and Q. Hughes all potentially in the top-10 early on. It was so much fun tracking the development and ups and downs of each prospect, comparing against different leagues, teams, playing styles, usage, skillsets, potentials, etc. and debating with others on here. I remember by January-ish I declared that Hughes was my favourite prospect of the draft. I jumped for joy, screamed and celebrated harder when we drafted him than I have for anything else relating to the Canucks. Even though I didn't actually have any input on what the Canucks did, it was tremendously satisfying to see my vision align with the Canucks' in one important moment. And now that guy is the Captain of our team. The framework that I developed to see the hockey world through is a major part of the framework that I see the world through. This place was the foundation that built that framework.
  2. I agree that Karlsson's defense is terrible and I would even take it further by saying that she entire Shark's system was based around allowing Karlsson as much freedom and opportunity as possible, even at the expense of winning games. With that said, Karlsson's finished with more even strength points than McDavid. I say again, Karlsson, the defenseman for a bottom-5 team in the league scored more even strength points than the guy who had the single best scoring season the NHL has seen in generations. Karlsson was the league leader in even strength scoring for the significant amounts of time this year. He had 6 more even strength points than our 100 point elite franchise center. Quinn Hughes has smashed our franchise defenseman scoring stats year by year and Karlsson had 25 more points than him this year. This is truly earth-shattering production even with the sudden explosion in defenseman point totals this year. This year I think the options for the Norris are less obvious than last year when there was an obvious top-2. I think that if you are not going to give it to Karlsson this year then you might as well just give it to Josi since he deserved it last year.
  3. This is a weird move. Positive value and opens up roster flexibility but its probably a bad look moving a free agent signing half a season later.
  4. If Hronek is a long term partner for Hughes then this trade addresses the single biggest need the Canucks have had for years and he is an invaluable asset. If Hronek is a solid top-4 guy then the trade is still an overall net positive but a bit more questionable. Why make this move at the deadline when prices are high and demand for picks is through the roof? Why couldn't we make a similar move in the offseason? What prevented them from getting Marino last year? I don't want to think about anything else.
  5. Carolina has said they're more aggressive now than they've ever been. Demko maybe possibly getting showcased. His contract fits their window perfectly.
  6. Highlights from his draft year (2018, same year as Hughes) where he was taken 9th overall.
  7. I absolutely love this deal. Kravtsov is exactly the kind of player that Rutherford was talking about in his press conference when he was talking about acquiring young players from other teams who haven't worked out yet and need another opportunity. I personally would have given up Hoglander for him so for the cost, this is an absolute win in my mind. Back in his draft year he was a bit of a wild card. The talent was evident but his regular season in the KHL was rather pedestrian, but he had an impressive showing in the Playoffs with 6 goals and 11 points in 16 games as a draft eligible. The talent is on display here, even within the first 3 clips. I think Kravtsov has a lot of talent but he hasn't gotten a real opportunity in New York due to their forward depth. His poise, awareness and skill always stuck out to me in the little that I've seen him there. It's evident that the offensive instincts are there for him to be an effective top-6 player in the right situation, and I can't imagine a better situation for him than playing with Pettersson and/or Kuzmenko. I think he still has 50+ point upside and hopefully our suddenly formed Russian mafia and a real opportunity with Pettersson can get him there.
  8. This dream scenario is actually possible now. First, our pick wins the lottery, obviously, and we land Bedard. The Islanders pick is 15th and Michkov falls in the draft due to concerns of him staying in Russia and the geopolitical situation in general. Canucks take him with the Islanders pick. We get three years of Bedard on his ELC followed by 3 years of Michkov on his ELC. That would be incredible.
  9. The 2020 Bubble Playoffs. He didn't score in the first three games against Minnesota and then got his first goal to tie the game with like 5 minutes left in the game before Tanev won it. He then proceeded to torch the defending Cup champions in the next round. The OT winner on the bank pass from Hughes. He was the leading goal scorer in the Playoffs before the Finals despite being eliminated a full round earlier. An incredible run. The bubble year where he scored 2 goals including the OT winner against the Leafs in our first game back after a month due to Covid shutting down our team. That year was terrible but that was a major bright spot, it was essentially our Playoffs. There was one road game against Detroit in 2019-20 where we were down by 2-0 heading into the 3rd and Horvat got his first career hat trick. I remember being impressed with him as a leader in that game.
  10. The most interesting part of this is that it directly goes against the narrative that was created after Rutherford's press conference where he said we'd be targeting players instead of prospects/picks. The fact that they did in fact acquire prospects and picks (Beauvillier is a cap balancer and stop gap with Mikheyev out or even another trade piece) is an indication that what they are trying to do isn't necessarily what they said they were going to try to do. I mentioned it before, but there's no way management would come out and say that they want to rebuild and work with a 5 year plan due to ownership, but they can make moves with that plan in mind. Given that management likely isn't done with Boeser rumours swirling, Schenn as an expiring UFA and Garland/OEL talk, we could see this quickly turn into something closer to a rebuild rather than retool, or probably a combination of both.
  11. Teams that potentially could be looking for a goalie are LA, EDM, CAR, NJD, PIT, BUF, OTT and TOR. Out of those options the most likely to make a move would probably be LA, NJD, PIT or OTT. I would imagine that NJD are the frontrunner. When the Demko rumours first started I was thinking Demko to OTT for 2023 1st (top-3 protected) + Zaitsev. Their pick is currently top-10 and I doubt they'd want to give it up, but that's the kind of deal I'd be looking for. Maybe a 2024 1st but I'd want more for taking back Zaitsev as well.
  12. Carolina's management has been clear that they are very careful about long term contracts with players well into their 30s. Can't imagine that Miller would be of interest to them. They might be willing to make an exception for Horvat, but probably not Miller. @mll would probably have the quotes. Carolina makes sense for Horvat and/or Boeser though. A Miller trade at this point would be beyond shocking. Maybe the Islanders would do it if Lou can get him for cheap and shed some cap, they are also starved for offense. Maybe Florida if we took back Bobrovsky's full contract. Possibly Pittsburgh in the offseason if they can make enough room. That's not very many teams and I doubt any of them would do it anyways.
  13. I was strictly talking before the deadline. If Horvat isn't signed before the deadline he'll be moved.
  14. An unwillingness to negotiate doesn't mean a deal can't be reached. Dhaliwal reported that Horvat's message to his representatives was to sit back and listen to offers during the season if they are presented, but not to take a leading role in negotiations. I interpret it as Horvat not wanting contract updates from his agent every week during the season, which is in line with Horvat's character as he'd want to focus on the season as he said in that statement. The Canucks reportedly went back to Horvat around December with an offer, which was rejected. So it's possible that a deal can still be reached before the deadline (again if Horvat hasn't already moved on in his mind), but only if the Canucks make an interesting offer. I don't think tabling negotiations during a season is out of the ordinary and it happens around the league.
  15. It's also been made clear (by the team and reports around the team) that Horvat was willing to bet on himself and that he didn't want to do serious negotiations during the season. Both of those things obviously make it more difficult to negotiate at this point along with Horvat's career year. But the fact that they are not letting other teams negotiate with Horvat in a potential trade aligns with what they did with Miller last year. Unless Horvat has committed to leaving Vancouver (which is possible but there's no way for us to know; There were reports last year that Miller wanted to play in the US), the Canucks can still keep him if they're willing to pay more, likely around 8M for 8 years. If they caved with Miller, there's no reason to believe they wouldn't with Horvat. I would say that the odds of him getting traded are greater than 75% based on the amount of noise, but fundamentally it's no different than the amount of noise around Miller last year and it's not a sure thing until it happens.
  16. It's clear that management's preference is to keep Horvat. They want to get him around 7M, but it's possible that they cave (like they might have with Miller) and get him close to 8M for 8 years. If Horvat is still open to staying then it is possible, I wouldn't bet on it but let's go with it for this scenario. Boeser should be able to return a pick/prospect if we retain 0.65M to get him down to an even 6M cap hit. Carolina was counting on Pacioretty being their deadline add as a goal scoring winger and may be in the market now. Boeser fit's their management's precedent of an inexpensive add and they have room for him beyond this year. I'm fairly certain that Garland will be gone one way or another this offseason. Ideally we can retain 0.95M to get him down to 4M and offload him for a pick/prospect. I imagine in the offseason with more cap flexibility there would be someone interested even if its a rebuilding team that would increase his value with more minutes/opportunity and then flip him later. That sets up the core of the team going forward: Pettersson, Hughes, Demko, Horvat, Miller and Kuzmenko with guys like Podkolzin, Bear, Dermott and Hoglander earning their way. The edges would be tinkered with and over time we'd see the slow accumulation of cost-effective players that thrive in the system we've (hopefully) implemented. If things work out then a 2-3 year timeline is realistic, but that's a big if.
  17. Boeser for Beauviller + Pick Boeser for Kapanen + Pick Those seem like the most realistic trades that I like the most given that both players are cheaper and only have one year left.
  18. Despite JR's preference for the word "re-tool" instead of "rebuild," the impression I get is that he is taking a patient, long-term approach with the organization. The thing is, he can't come out and say it in the exact way the media wants him to, likely for many reasons (Aquilini, losing leverage, attracting new people to the organization, etc.). I was impressed by his demeanor and the quotes on Twitter don't capture that. He's definitely going to do things the way he wants to, not necessarily the way the fans want to. He was respectful towards the players, the organization and the media. "We'll still try to acquire some draft picks." "It'll be a mix of draft picks and hopefully younger, NHL guys that have NHL experience." "There could be core players that have to move out" "We're trying to bring younger players in, okay, and to help develop these younger players as they're playing." "We're going to stick to the plan of keeping our draft picks, trying to add more draft picks and trying to add younger players and try to bring them together, and hopefully sooner than the 3 year plan." On tanking, he was very subtle with his responses in a way that doesn't come through in a quote, but I believe he recognizes the benefits of finishing near the bottom of the league. "I thought we were tanking? We're pretty close to the bottom" he says with a slight joking smile before reiterating that he would never ask players or coaches to not play hard. However, he immediately implies the moves that he can make up top in configuring the roster can have a future-oriented outlook. To me that's just him saying that he's completely fine with getting the best possible pick without explicitly saying it. When asked about Demko being held out longer to assist with getting a good pick, he says "I haven't thought about that. We want to make sure he's healthy. He's going to want to play, he's not here to worry about whether we get a better draft pick." To me, his body language and the way he says that definitely implies that they will not rush back Demko to win games and they'll be extra precautious with bringing him back. Basically the thing he said he never thought about. He can't come out and diretly say that he'll delay getting our starter back to lose more games, but I think that's what he's dancing around. It's also clear that the AHL is a big part of Rutherford's organization, to put it lightly. Of course talk is cheap and we'll see what the future moves actually are.
  19. Hughes is the much more talented player. He's been playing injured and sick throughout this year and still has a 12 game assists streak. How many other NHL and Canucks records does he have? He and Makar were pretty much equally as good in their rookie years. Hughes has been our unquestioned #1D from the moment he's arrived. He's in a higher tier than Dobson and that overrides any positional advantages.
  20. You are underrating Quinn Hughes. He's more valuable than Pettersson.
  21. He was so good in Colorado where his speed fit perfectly with their fast paced system. I thought it would work in Toronto too but for whatever reason the coach doesn't seem to trust him. This is an example of what Rutherford was talking about. When a team has very strong structure that everyone adheres to, you can find players anywhere that have the skillset to thrive within your structure. Aube-Kubel was a great fit in Colorado as a waiver claim. It doesn't matter if they're a first overall pick or a league minimum player, you need players that fit your style, structure and identity. It's apparent that the Canucks have nothing close to such a system and haven't had it since the 2011 core. Our team right now is consists of Pettersson driving his line, Horvat driving his line and Hughes single handedly moving play up ice. There's no coherence or consistency in the way we play. Colorado comes at you in waves as a team, lines one through four. If you watch the Lightning, every single player is not only always ready to support the puck, they're ready to support the next place the puck is going to go because they trust it'll get there. Building up that kind of team play is extremely difficult and takes time, and we don't have a Crosby to set the example.
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