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Everything posted by Noble 6
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This is a terrible line of thinking that will just lead to more problems down the line. Do you want MORE dead cap space when we want to re-sign Pettersson and Hughes? Because that would be how you get it. Just because you don't understand the "accounting" side of management doesn't mean it's not important.
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I don't particularly like this deal, but it's not that bad. One thing is clear though: management and ownership really want to make the Playoffs this year. I don't mind giving up Madden, but not for a rental. He was a player with value who we could've used as a trade chip to shore up other areas of the team (RD, offload a contract, etc.). In my mind, the more sustainable option outweighs the instant improvement option most of the time, and this is not an exception. The other thing I (potentially) don't like is the timing of this trade. I'm not sure if it made any it made any difference (hence the potentially part), but Toffoli is just coming off of a hat trick and 4 goals in his last two games after scoring 3 goals in his last 15 games. If we traded for him last week instead, does the trade look slightly different? I don't think any of us can definitively say, but it is a stretch. We now don't have a pick in the first two rounds of this draft, which is looking pretty strong. If that doesn't send a clear message through the organization and the fanbase that they want the Playoffs this year, I don't know what does. It's going to suck not having a pick and watching good players get taken in our range, but if it wins us a round it will be good. Benning was deliberate in saying that he didn't want to mess around with the team chemistry at the deadline earlier this year. Toffoli mitigates some of that concern for obvious reasons. He also had the best chance of finding chemistry on the ice out of all the potentially available players, so that's encouraging as well. I haven't been overly impressed with my limited viewings of him on the Kings so far this year, but he was playing for the Kings. Hopefully realizing that he's back in the hunt will jump start him a little bit like it did for Pearson last year. His numbers range from decent to pretty good considering the state of the Kings. I don't think there's any chance we re-sign Toffoli unless we let at least one of Markstrom and/or Tanev walk or we get some crazy break with Eriksson retiring or something.
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[Proposal] OMG..McD..Dealt?!
Noble 6 replied to Nuxfanabroad's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
1-2 games is enough to make this statement? -
Edler and Myers haven't been a pairing since the first third of the season. Stetcher has played with Edler since then and Myers has been on the bottom pair with Fantenberg (until he got hurt). Edler and Stetcher are the pairing that see's the most defensive assignments. If Myers relieves pressure on Tanev, can you please explain why: Tanev's aTOI is essentially the same as last year Tanev still blocks shots at the same rate as last year Tanev is still playing the most penalty killing minutes by far I understand that Myers even strength TOI is higher. However, they are mutually exclusive from Tanev's minutes because Tanev is still seeing the same deployment as last year. Myers has essentially replaces Gudbranson and Pouliot's minutes, which adds up to more even strength minutes, but doesn't take anything away from Tanev. I should add that Myers has been better that both Gudbranson defensively and Pouliot offensively, I'm just purely looking at TOI distribution. As you said, If we didn't have Myers the minutes would be divided up among the rest of the group. I believe Stetcher could fill a considerable amount of those minutes effectively. He actually lead our team in even strength TOI last year (with more games played) and he stepped up well. He has bad periods/games, but his overall body of work when given more responsibility is good. The main replacement option would have been elevating Stetcher in the lineup (pretty much where he is now but with a bit more special teams responsibility as well) and then bringing in a bottom pairing replacement.
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Stetcher actually lead our team in even strength TOI last year (with more games played) and he stepped into those minutes well. He definitely has bad periods/plays/games, but overall he is a good option to fill those minutes. I don't think there's anything left to say regarding the rest except fair enough. Thank you for the discussion.
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1) Does Myers actually play against the oppositions top lines consistently? If he does that would definitely be an area where he's taken some of the load off of Tanev, but I'm not sure he does. Given his relatively easy deployment I would doubt it. Regarding your scenario, I don't think that does much to illustrate Myers' effectiveness. If Tanev is tired, of course you would put someone else on. The alternative would be not putting anyone else one. Last year when Tanev was tired we threw out Gudbranson; does this make Gudbranson a defenseman capable of playing against the opposition's top lines and taking the load off of Tanev. 2) I would have to simply disagree that a 2nd powerplay and 2nd penalty kill defenseman is worth 6 million. He plays minutes at even strength, but I don't think it's something that someone else couldn't do. I would have even liked to have seen Stetcher get more of a look with those minutes. In the past when Edler/Tanev have gotten hurt he has stepped into those minutes quite well.
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I'm aware that Myers plays big minutes, but the discussion was on Myers making Tanev's minutes easier. As I previously said, Myers plays the 2nd easiest minutes on the team (behind Hughes) when looking at zone starts.The minutes he plays aren't the ones that Tanev would normally play. As you said, Myers doesn't replace any of Tanev's tough penalty killing minutes. There's no evidence that supports the idea that Tanev's minutes/deployment have gotten easier because of Myers. The main difference that Myers has brought is being an upgrade on Gudbranson at 5 on 5 (since that's where most of his minutes are) and being able to fill on on special teams.
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You're just repeating yourself. Saying Myers makes Tanev's minutes easier doesn't make it true. Tanev is playing the same amount of minutes. Tanev is still our most used penalty killer. Tanev is still blocking the same number of shots. Myers is given easier deployment. These are irrefutable. Do you have anything that actually shows that Myers makes Tanev's life easier?
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Edler and Tanev are not fresher. I've said multiple times that Tanev's aTOI is essentially the same as last year and he is still the runaway leader in short handed minutes on the team. In what way is Tanev fresher this year?
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Pretty much everything you said in the first paragraph is wrong. Myers has the second highest offensive zone start percentage among defenseman on the team behind Hughes. They get the easiest minutes on the team. There's narrative that Myers plays tough minutes is false and doesn't have any data supporting it. Tanev is blocking 2.3 shots per game this year; he blocked 2.2 shots per game last year. Tanev isn't blocking any less shots. As previously stated, Myers get's the 2nd most offensive zone starts on the team, so the narrative that he eats up defensive minutes is false. You're right in saying that we probably wouldn't be first in the division without Myers. He has made a positive impact on our team. However, we also wouldn't be worried about potentially losing Stetcher, bonus overages, paying to move contracts, etc. I don't think replacing Myers with a cheaper option would significantly worsen this team, but it would improve our cap situation considerably. We wouldn't be out of a Playoff spot without Myers I don't think.
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Do you honestly think that his defensive zone starts going down a little bit has more to do with Myers (who has the 2nd most offensive start percentage of any defenseman, playing on a different pairing) or would playing with Hughes (who has the highest offensive zone start percentage on the Canucks) be more of a factor? You're just dodging around the rest of my points now. Tanev is playing the same amount of tough minutes this year as we was last year. You haven't shown any data that refutes this and have just been repeating yourself over and over again.
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Nobody is relieving Tanev of his duties. His deployment this year has been virtually the same as last year, with the only difference being that he's been healthy. Tanev's health has nothing to do with a difference in deployment or usage. I agree that Myers makes our team better. He's a good option on the second powerplay and he has provided offence at a good rate, especially when you consider his slow start. However, I'm not happy with investing 6 million per year in a 2nd powerplay defenseman. That's inexcusable in my mind when you consider how predictable it was and the effect it will have on our team given our cap situation. I don't think he's a bad player, he's actually been a good addition, just not relative to his cap hit. It's an element that I believe management (and most fans) have often overlooked and it looks like it's going to bite us in the butt starting this summer.
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The difference in zone starts wasn't meant to be a positive. It shows that Myers is getting some of the easiest minutes on the team. Tanev plays the same amount of minutes. You keep saying that Myers reduces the amount of stress placed on them, but that just isn't true. Tanev's deployment is essentially the same. You haven't brought up any information that refutes this, you just keep saying the same thing over and over again. I don't think Myers is a terrible player. I just think that when you look at what he brings relative to his cap hit and the effect it will likely have on us given our cap situation, it's probably not worth it.
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What does Myers bring besides a warm body? He is not someone who Green uses a lot on the penalty kill. He does not play on the top powerplay unit. At even strength he starts in the offensive zone more than anyone except Hughes. How many defenseman who are currently on ELCs would get paid 6+ million if they had to renegotiate their contract right now? Less than 10%? Myers does not take away any tough situations from Edler or Tanev. As I said, Tanev is playing the same amount on the penalty kill this year as he was last year. He also has more defensive zone starts than Myers. Again, Tanev's average is time has gone down 18 seconds. Do you have any examples that counter this?
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The first bolded part isn't exactly true and those numbers were only looking at short handed time. Edler, Tanev and Benn are Green's clear top 3 options on the penalty kill. Myers takes the odd shorthanded shift (likely when one of the other 3 aren't available and/or when Benn got scratched). A more accurate way to describe it would be: Tanev > Edler >>> Benn >>>>>>>>Myers>>>>>>>>> everyone else Remember, that's purely on the penalty kill and only measures minutes played. I believe Stetcher's shorthanded stats are actually impressive and similar to Tanev's, but he doesn't get the same deployment. Myers isn't relied on to make any tangible difference on the penalty kill. Tanev still plays the same amount shorthanded as he did last year. Regarding the second bolded part, Myers' cap hit looks like it might directly push Stetcher off the team. It will probably cost us assets to get comfortably under the cap next year considering we need to make room for bonuses as well. These are directly caused by cap mismanagement, which Myers' contract is an example of. He's not the only reason we are in cap trouble and it's not entirely his fault by any means, but he is a contributor. Myers has been a good addition to our defensive core, but at a cost that is too high when you consider the cap implications. I get what you're saying about paying a premium for UFAs, but there is no rule saying that you MUST sign UFAs. The option to simply stand pat is available and often underutilized.
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He definitely has something to do with it, but he's not the main reason at all. Please refer to my reply to @aGENT If the main benefit a player brings is making his teammates lives easier, but he actually doesn't do that in a noticeable way, how good is that player? Furthermore, is he worth 6 million against the cap?
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Nope, not if that's all he brings. If you're being paid 6 million per year (I believe it's a top 30 cap hit in league among defensemen), you better offer something individually. I think you're also overselling this point. Tanev's average TOI has dropped by 18 seconds from last year to this year, which is hardly noticeable. He's blocking shots at pretty much the same rate. Tanev has played 209:30 short handed this year while Myers has only played 98:04 (less than half) in the same amount of games. That works out to 3.36 short handed minutes per game for Tanev versus 1:41 for Myers. Tanev played 177:48 short handed last season in 55 games, which works out to 3.23 short handed minutes per game. So Tanev's average short handed time on ice per game dropped a whole 13 seconds with the addition of 6 million dollar man Myers. The one area where Tanev has had a considerable shift is in his zone starts (56.5% this year vs. 62.5% last year), but that is because he is playing with our best offensive defenseman in Hughes. The extra protection that Tanev is wearing this year is more responsible for his healthy than Myers. Myers has less penalty killing time this year than Benn despite playing 17 more games. Myers is 4th overall and the drop off to 5th (Stetcher) is substantial.
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That trickle down effect is definitely a positive, but there's no way it's worth 6 million per.
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Dahlin is just a teenager still. The 3rd highest scoring teenage defenseman in NHL history coming off of a concussion.