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Everything posted by Noble 6
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2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Patrick is the most likely to step directly into the NHL next year. I was just trying to present some options and open up some other options to consider in case it affects anyone's decisions. I do think it is pretty important in terms of a players development though. I gave the Virtanen example, but that's probably a bit extreme (although it wouldn't completely surprise me if something similar happened with Vilardi). Another player who I think became a victim of the lack of AHL eligibility is Lazar. He would probably be a better player if he was able to do his time in the AHL as opposed to getting exposed in the NHL. I think it affects players who have a defensive element to their game more than pure offensive players usually. Given how important and impactful those types of players can be, I think it would be a pretty significant factor in determining how high those guys are ranked. That affects Hischier, Necas, Liljegren, Pettersson and some others. I think it increases the likelyhood of most players reaching their potential and stepping into the NHL sooner significantly. -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
I think one key factor that should be considered when formulating rankings and determining who you want is who is eligible for the AHL next year. That is such a huge advantage for the organization as they are able to get up close and control a player's development. We all know what can happen when you are restricted to either the NHL or CHL until you're 20-21. In addition, players that are playing in mens leagues should also have an advantage. Based on that, I would have it as: 1) Hischier (AHL) 2) Patrick 3) Necas (AHL and has been playing in a mens league) 4) Liljegren (AHL and has been playing in a mens league) Those are the main guys who fall into that category. Patrick has also expressed possible interest in going over to Europe for a year to work on his skating. If he is allowed to do that then that is bonus for the team that takes him. -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
I don't understand the fascination with size. If Necas is a better player than Vilardi, you choose Necas. It doesn't matter if Vilardi has an extra 3 inches and 20lbs. If you have 2 players and they are the exact same in every way except player A is 6'4, 220lbs and player B is 5'9, 175lbs, then obviously you take the bigger guy. But having 2 players be exactly the same in every way except for size is extremely unlikely. If there is a player with size AND a good amount of skill, IQ, skating, etc. then he has the potential to be a special player. That's the type of pick we made at 6th overall in 2014. Don't want to discuss that too much and derail this thread, but that's the idea. Vilardi probably isn't at that level of talent where you can justify picking him over someone else based on his size. If his skating was better he probably would be. Also, isn't speed the name of the game? Isn't that what everyone was saying when Pittsburgh won the Cup? That the league was trending towards smaller, faster and more skilled players? Why is that line of thinking already being abandoned? People were saying speed, skill and IQ should be what we are focus in on since the 2014 draft, nut I guess that's gone. I think people are concerned about building a forward core that has no pushback. That would be a bad thing. However, I don't think we're doing that. We have Horvat, who is gritty and works hard down low. We've also see him do very well in a fight now too. He won't be pushed around. Boeser isn't a powerforward, but he also won't be an easy target. Dahlen plays like Markus Granlund, he won't stand around take punches without retaliating. On top of that we still have; Virtanen, who has the potential to be one of the most feared players in the league, Gaudette, who will stand up for himself, Lockwood, who has that edge and grit to his game, and some more who are longshots. The only players who can accurately be labelled soft are Baertschi, Granlund and Goldobin. That's 3 out of 12 forwards. They look like they could offer more than bruising hits if they stick around though. -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
I know exactly how it sounds and I'm not blaming anyone for not taking him seriously. I believe that you had Juolevi over Tkachuk on your personal list as well, but that's different than predicting the Canucks list accurately, which he apparently has done. Also if they have Necas at #3 (just hypothetically) and they take him at 3rd overall, it would only be off the board in terms of what the media was projecting, not Benning's list. I agree that Liljegren should be one of their targets outside of the top-2, and he probably is. I don't think he necessarily predicted when we would be picking or that we would be picking Juolevi, he just said that the Canucks would prefer Juolevi over Tkachuk if they were in a position to choose between the two, which they ended up doing. Obviously they wouldn't have taken him at second overall, only if the 3-4 players ranked above him were gone. As it turned out, we ended being in a position on draft day where the 3 or 4 players Benning had above Juolevi were gone and he chose him over Tkachuk. -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
I can't confirm or deny whether he is or not, just what I heard. I think Necas could really surprise some people in terms of how high he goes, how soon he steps into the NHL and how well he does. -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
A while back I summarized a post I found on HFBoards. There was a guy on there who claimed to have inside information. Apparently last year he predicted that the Canucks would take Juolevi over Tkachuk at the midway point of the season. This same guy said the Canucks are very high on Necas and have Vilardi and Mittlestadt rated lower than fans might expect. I'm not sure if the person you quoted is the same person or not, but just a possibility. I would the information above with a grain of salt as well. -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Agree with everything on Necas. Have you seen him play at all? -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
I don't think I've seen enough of any prospect to try and get a handle on how they think. I think you made some good points though. I think Hischier would probably be at the top of the list, given how he has adapted his line of thinking to North American ice while playing on weaker teams (even at the WJC). I think he's capable of reading that fast, off the rush game just as well as he is at reading the slow, east-west game. I think Patrick would probably be a close second given his remarkable draft -1 year. It would be a lot harder to use his physical abilities to gain time and space, so to me that means he was able to think the game at a high level to put up those points. I think he likes to play more down low and along the boards, more like that east-west game. I think Getzlaf is a good comparison, but Patrick probably doesn't have the same sauce that Getzlaf does. Vilardi is all about freeing himself up down low and finding the open man, usually a defenseman. His game revolves around using his big frame to protect the puck and find the open man. Mittlestadt is the one I've seen the least out of the 4, but he seems like someone who can adapt to either playing off the rush or slowing the game down. He's just the one I feel will least likely translate his line of thinking efficiently to the NHL. I have Liljegren in my top 5, and he is definitely very smart as well. Of course, it's a little different being a defenseman. I think he's very good at identifying the flow of the neutral zone and how to pick it apart with either a nice pass or navigating it himself. In that way he's similar to Doughty, but I don't think he's as strong defensively. I've seen him try to force a pass through someone as the last man back, which lead to a turnover that ended up being the game winning goal. He also gets overmatched physically down low, but he's an 18 year old playing against professionals. I think he has too much talent to pass up on if we are anywhere from 3-5. Necas is someone I have never watched, but all reports say he is a very smart player. It sounds like he can play either the slow game, given the strict defensive systems in the men's league compared to the CHL, or the fast game given the fact that he is apparently one of the best skaters in the draft. My top 5 or so would look like this: 1) Hischier 2) Patrick (injuries, but I'm no doctor). 3) Necas 4) Liljegren 5) Vilardi 6) Foote 7) Glass? -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
I think there's a very fine line that is extremely difficult to navigate when it comes to judging a prospect's hockey IQ and whether it will translate or not. @ForsbergTheGreat already made some good points on the Nylander vs. Shinkaurik question. I'm not sure if there is a definitive definition for hockey IQ and even if there is it's probably extremely controversial. I think there are a lot of different ways a player can be smart. The Sedins in their prime would bring in 2 defenders into the corner and create a 2 on 2 situation, and it would end up with Daniel being alone on front. They recognized how to confuse defenders and open up space at other spots in the rink. A different example would be Laine. If you watch him in the zone, he is amazing at finding that perfect amount of space between him and the defender to release his insanely deadly shot. Here's an example, I can't help myself (the first goal mainly): Then you look at someone like Nylander, who does things a little differently. He has that innate ability to draw in 2 or 3 guys towards him, leaving someone open. He holds on to the puck for that extra second and hits the open man. Another video example: Then there's guys like Crosby and McDavid, who have such insane physical abilities that you need 2 guys just to cover them, always leaving one guy open. Like when Crosby beats his man down low with his insane strenght, edgework, hip positioning, etc and the second defender comes in to support, leaving someone else open. Or when McDavid has the defenseman beat wide so his partner collapses back, leaving someone else open. Those are just some of the ways you could define hockey IQ. -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
I think Granlund and Arvidsson play with a tenacity that can't be taught. That's the main thing that got them into the league. I think those two are also a lot grittier along the boards, in front of the net, etc. They don't rely on only their skill and smarts, they go out and work hard on both sides of the puck every shift. They have that motor that just keeps going. I would say Nylander's hockey IQ is on a different level than most other players in the NHL, let alone Mittlestadt. If he had a dynamic physical trait, like explosive speed, strength to protect the puck, etc. he would probably be one of the very best players in the league. I don't think there's anyone in this draft that thinks the game like he does. I haven't watched Pastrnak enough to know if he is similar to Mittlestadt, but I'll take your word for it. I also only saw him play once at the WJC in his draft year. I'm just not 100% sure if he'll be able to think the game as far ahead at the next level as he is right now. I think he relies on his nice toedrags to create time and space for himself a bit too much, and that likely won't work as well at the next level. With the players I mentioned (Panarin, Gaudreau and Kuznetsov) I think it was mainly either the Russian factor or an extreme lack of size that caused them to drop. Mittlestadt won't be bolting to Russia and he has a pretty good frame, I just don't think his IQ has that same "wow" factor that will allow him to play that way in the NHL. I'm no scout and could very well be wrong, but that's just my take. -
Pretty much. In the same way, you could look at it and think that it's a bad thing that he was noticeably thinner against kids his own age and younger in the second video. He looks like he's about the same size as Keller. Obviously I didn't expect him to be manhandling college players in his rookie year, but you can see that there's a noticeable difference. That's at the college level. It's whole different level in the NHL. Just shows that he's probably going to have to work on adding muscle mass for a while before he's effective physically in the NHL. The first video only had one physical play, so it wasn't ideal for what I was trying to show. It still showed how Lockwood looked thinner than most guys, which is the main thing I was trying to stress.
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2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
I don't like the fact that he essentially "lost" a chunk of development time in his draft year to go back to high school. I also think he tries to play the 1 on 1's against the defense with too much razzle dazzle that won't work to the same effect, if at all, in the NHL. When he's playing against people that can keep up with his change of pace and his edgework and, most importantly, read what he's going to do offensively, I think it will be tough for him. He will still likely find a useful niche on the powerplay, but I don't think that's good enough for us. In the highlights above, most of the plays can be chalked up to terrible defense, poor quality of competition or just the overall strength of team U.S.A. (namely Brown, who centered his line). He does have good instincts and creativity, I just don't think he'll be able to translate as effectively to the NHL, therefore not becoming the player some people expected. Of course I could be wrong and he could be the best player from this draft, but I personally don't see that as being very likely. -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
I would argue that defensemen are a lot more capable mentally in the NHL as well as physically. These are the guys that deal with Kane + Panarin, McDavid, Crosby, Malkin, Gaudreau, Kuznetsov, etc. on a nightly basis. Those guys are probably all on a different level than Mittlestadt. Given that these guys can be shut down effectively (at least for a while) and they are more talented in that specific field than Mittlestadt, I would think Mittlestadt's skillset wouldn't be anything new for them. If Mittlestadt was a 1st overall pick level talent or even a top 3 level talent I would be a lot more comfortable with having his skill translate obviously, but he seems like a high risk, high reward pick. Just think of all the high IQ defensemen there are now. Kieth, Josi, Hedman, Karlsson, Burns, Seabrook, Weber, OEL, McDonough, Letang, Doughty, Pietrangelo, etc. Obviously none of them are immune to mistakes or brain farts, but they can see through most people's intentions very well most of the time. I don't think Mittlestadt's offensive abilities will translate to the point where he has a lot of standard top-4 guys reaching in and making mistakes. Obviously if he is able to adapt to the higher capabilities of defensemen then he will be dynamite offensively. I just don't think I'm as convinced as some other people seem to be. The point about the USHL being more of a powerplay league is looking right. -
The main thing that I think could hold Lockwood back is his physical build. Here is some footage on him: I think it's more evident in the second video, but you can see how much he has to fill out physically. He was taking some solid runs at people, but I think he's gonna have to add quite a bit of muscle mass to be effective at that in the NHL. His feet look fast and he has good coordination, but I think it'll take him a while to enough physically for him to be as effective as possible.
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2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Follow up quesiton: If Rasmussen is being avoided for being physically stronger than everyone else at the same age, couldn't a similar argument be made for Mittlestadt being more skilled than everyone at the same age? Essentially, why is there a belief that all the high-skilled moves and backhand toe drags that Mittlestadt uses against juniors will translate to the NHL while the possibility that Rasmussen could be a physical force in the NHL is overlooked? Wouldn't struggling to score at 5v5 in the CHL be the same thing as struggling to score at 5v5 in the USHL? Especially given that the USHL is probably, at best, equal to the CHL? I'm not advocating for Rasmussen, just trying to get a clearer picture on the thoughts on Mittlestadt. -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
At the U18's he was playing with Brown and Yammamoto if I'm not mistaken. The Keller line was also the go-to offensive line. The whole U.S. team was stronger than everyone else. I'm not saying that it wasn't impressive that he was on that team in a top-6 position despite being a year younger than some guys, but I don't think that alone should be a big reason for picking him high up in the draft. -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Can someone please tell me why Mittlestadt has been gaining favour despite most of his production coming on the powerplay while Rasmussen is being avoided for the same reason? -
Do you think he has the creativity and awareness to be a top 6 player? Defensive awareness can be coached and is a lot easier if you are willing to learn. You don't have to control the puck, avoid defenders, look for plays, etc. I think he becomes more of a head down, take it to the net player on offense. Again in not a bad thing, but probably not ideal for the top 6 unless he plays with 2 other superstars.
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Can you provide an example or two of him making a high IQ play? Or just define what your personal definition of hockey IQ is? Genuinly curious.
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Think for yourself. Alright, just wanted to be sure.
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He does seem to read the play pretty well and is capable of making passes in the zone. I just don't think he's creative enough to be a staple in our top 6. Please understand that I'm not saying he was a bad pick. There's nothing wrong with being a good bottom 6 player and those types of guys are very important to building a good team. I just think that the expectations shouldn't be too high for him just because he had a good year.
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I don't think he has the IQ to be a top 6 player, similar to Virtanen. He looks like a north-south guy who keeps things simple and puts pucks on net. He is looking like a pretty useful player, just probably not in the top 6, unless he's playing with 2 other superstars.
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2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Horvat - Top 6 Boeser - Top 6 Baertschi - Middle 6 Granlund - Middle 6 Goldobin - Potential Top 6 Dahlen - Potential Middle 6 Virtanen - Potential Middle 6 Gaudette - Potential Bottom 6 Lockwoof - Potential Bottom 6 Those are probably the most accurate guesses for right now. Ceilings and floors vary, but I think that's what those guys are most likely going to be. _______ - _______ - Boeser Dahlen - Horvat - Goldobin Baertschi - Gaudette - Virtanen Granlund - Gaunce - Lockwood -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Sounds like he's a really good prospect. I have absolutely zero preference after 5th/6th, so he could fit in in that area. I do like the fact that he's a defenseman, especially one that plays the right side. -
2017 NHL Draft - Chicago, Illinois June 23-24 2017
Noble 6 replied to hyper00's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Sounds similar to our very own Juolevi. Do you know if he's playing in the top men's league or in the second tier?