Seannnp

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Everything posted by Seannnp

  1. Is this plausible? Are the values close? I really don't want this to turn into a Lucic/EDM discussion please. Could Benning pull this off? If he could, does this mean our rebuild is complete? TO EDM Sutter (50%) TO VAN Lucic, 8th OA, 38th OA Whilst most will see this as a favor to Edmonton, I think this is a package a lot of teams with cap space would jump on (if they had a 3c to move). We get 2 top 4 picks in a deep 1st round. With the amount of salary we are hoping to move or get off the books in the next two years. The additional 6 million is nothing. TO DAL Tanev, Goldobin, 3rd in 2020 (Conditional, changes to a 2nd if Tanev plays less than 65 games) TO VAN 18th OA, Honka Dallas needs a top 4 right handed dman that can help keep the puck out of the net. I think with an easier travel schedule and easier matchups playing behind Klingberg, Heiskanen, Tanev will thrive. We exchange projects in Goldobin and Honka who I still believe can turn out to be better than Hutton. We give them a 3rd to bring value closer and it changes to a 2nd if Tanev plays less than 65 games. Dallas was interested in Tanev two years ago I believe. TO CAR Hutton, Baertschi TO VAN 29th OA Carolina needs more forward depth and are particularly weak at LW especially with Ferland likely gone in free agency and Baertschi provides some secondary scoring. They get a young LHD who continues to improve, had a great year last year, can play in the top 6 and top 4 minutes for a limited time if required. This allows them to move a more valuable defenseman for more forward depth like a legitimate top 6 winger (think Nylander, Hoffman, etc) TO PITS 29th OA (CAR), 38th OA (EDM) TO VAN 21st OA Pits is still looking to complete with Crosby and Malkin. The 21st doesn't hold the same value to them as it would for teams beginning their rebuild. I think dropping 8 spots in the latter 1/3 if the first round and getting an extra 2nd allows them to begin stocking up their depleted prospect pool. We could also keep the 38th and add a player or prospect that could help them right away. I think they still need some help on the wing. TO OTT Eriksson, 3rd round in 2019 TO VAN 6th round in 2020 6m cap hit, not much actual salary to be paid, 3rd round pick this year. Melnyk is all over this as it gets him to the cap floor without having to pay the cap hit salary!!! They have quite a few ELC's so they may be actively looking for a deal like this to hit the cap floor. Granlund, Spooner, Schaller out for 5th, 6th, or 7th picks We go into the draft with 8thOA - Krebs/Podkolzin/Boldy 10thOA - Krebs/Podkolzin/Boldy 18thOA - Seider 21stOA - Lavoie 40thOA - Korczak OUT Sutter (2.25) Hutton (3.0) Baertschi (3.5) Eriksson (6.0) Tanev (4.5) Goldobin (1.5) Granlund (2.0) Schaller (1.9) Spooner (3.25) Pouliot (1.5) Gaunce (1.5) 3rd in 2019 3rd in 2020 IN Lucic(6m) Honka (1.5) Krebs Podkolzin Sieder Lavoie Korczak 6th in 2020 Whatever we get for Schaller, Granlund, Spooner
  2. Your reservations are expected. I have the same sentiment. Scares the crap out of me that one of the last pieces of our rebuild may not end up here. I think the interview portion is going to be huge for him. If JB has confirmation he is absolutely coming to the NHL in two years then he's going to be the steal of the draft. Only problem is if he tells all the teams this, hes likely going 3rd or 4th.
  3. Whilst the value is close for the 13th OA and its exactly what the Panthers need, I don't think the Panthers pull the trigger given its close to 9m in salary and they have plans to pursue both Bob and Panarin. I am of the opinion that we are better suited to split them up in two separate trades and maximize our return. I also included some other trades. TO EDM Sutter (50%) TO VAN Lucic, 8th OA, 38th OA Whilst most will see this as a favor to Edmonton, I think this is a package a lot of teams with cap space would jump on (if they had a 3c to move). We get 2 top 4 picks in a deep 1st round. With the amount of salary we are hoping to move or get off the books in the next two years. The additional 6 million is nothing. TO DAL Tanev, Goldobin, 3rd in 2020 (Conditional, changes to a 2nd if Tanev plays less than 65 games) TO VAN 18th OA, Honka Dallas needs a top 4 right handed dman that can help keep the puck out of the net. I think with an easier travel schedule and easier matchups playing behind Klingberg, Heiskanen, Tanev will thrive. We exchange projects in Goldobin and Honka who I still believe can turn out to be better than Hutton. We give them a 3rd to bring value closer and it changes to a 2nd if Tanev plays less than 65 games. TO CAR Hutton, Baertschi TO VAN 29th OA Carolina needs more forward depth and are particularly weak at LW especially with Ferland likely gone in free agency. They get a LHD defenseman that can play in the top 6 and top 4 minutes for a limited time if required. This allows them to move a more valuable defenseman for more forward depth. TO PITS 29th OA (CAR), 38th OA (EDM) TO VAN 21st OA Pits is still looking to complete with Crosby and Malkin. The 21st doesn't hold the same value to them as it would for teams beginning their rebuild. I think dropping 8 spots in the latter 1/3 if the first round and getting an extra 2nd allows them to begin stocking up their depleted prospect pool. TO OTT Eriksson, 3rd round in 2019 TO VAN 6th round in 2020 6m cap hit, not much actual salary to be paid, 3rd round pick this year. Melnyk is all overt this as it gets him to the cap floor without having to pay the cap hit salary!!! Granlund, Spooner, Schaller out for 5th, 6th, or 7th picks We go into the draft with 8thOA - Krebs/Podkolzin/Boldy 10thOA - Krebs/Podkolzin/Boldy 18thOA - Seider 21stOA - Lavoie 40thOA - Korczak OUT Sutter (2.25) Hutton (3.0) Baertschi (3.5) Eriksson (6.0) Tanev (4.5) Goldobin (1.5) Granlund (2.0) Schaller (1.9) Spooner (3.25) Pouliot (1.5) Gaunce (1.5) 3rd in 2019 3rd in 2020 IN Lucic(6m) Honka (1.5) Krebs Podkolzin Sieder Lavoie Korczak 6th in 2020 Whatever we get for Schaller, Granlund, Spooner
  4. Thanks, that was a great read. Ultimately, I am simply suggesting that those who assume we would draft Pettersson after drafting PLD aren't taking into consideration the "small errors" to the initial condition that deviate from the path that led us to Pettersson in the first place. I believe that both Makar and Heiskanen were above Pettersson on our draft board. This analysis only takes into consideration the effect a deviation has on the Canucks. The effect it would have on other teams and the leagues in general are quite extensive and likely require consideration of all possible scenarios to determine the likelihood of drafting EP. With respect to the Col situation, it is a hypothetical example, in which Colorado passes on Makar having filled the need for defenseman via trade. This would leave Makar available for the taking at 4 or 5. The NYR lottery situation is another hypothetical that would have affected our draft as well. Essentially what I am saying is that the Canucks drafting PLD changes the dynamics for many teams that were either directly or indirectly involved. This would cause a cascade effect that would reverberate across the league to a certain degree, completely changing the follow years draft outlook or position. So, those still considering the 2016 draft a screw job, draft failure, etc are asking for an initial condition to change without considering the effects it would have on the makeup of our team now. I'm of the opinion most would prefer Pettersson over Dubois and am thankful for the way things played out. The chance of not drafting Pettersson after having drafted PLD are far too high, regardless of how insignificant that chance actually is.
  5. I think I would be on board as well but would wait to see if Madden can really be that guy to take on that 3c role. If Madden proves he can be a regular and impactful 3c then I would gladly drive Gaudette to the airport for Wilde. Wilde was actually the dman I was hoping we took with our 2nd or tried to get an additional 2nd to take both him and Woo. We ended up with one of the two I wanted so I was happy. If we can now go out and get Wilde as well, RHD with a big shot and plays a physical game we can stop hoping Trymakin comes back.
  6. Just trying to show that circumstances can change enough to completely take you off a projected path. For anyone to assume that we would have drafted PLD and that still would have left us in a position to draft Pettersson is naïve. Chaos theory provides a hypothetical explanation in the simplest of terms to help others understand that a change to the Canucks organization or personnel would contribute to a different end result (the possibilities are endless). Not sure how this is taking it far...or maybe you just want people to know that youre aware of chaos theory and its understanding of it, not sure how much substance your comment actually provides to this discussion. If you want to refute the plausibility of the butterfly effect or if you think my rationale doesn't apply then please say so. I say this with the utmost respect as well, not trying to discredit you or anything, just wish you would've offered more to continue the discussion. If we hadn't drafted PLD but drafted Matthew Tkachuk, do the Canucks pick 5thOA the following year? If we had traded out 5th for PKS, do the Canucks finish at the bottom of the standings? Since everything, arguably of course, follows a nonlinear path, a deviation from projected and set path alters the destination. The only way we draft Pettersson, other than in a handful of possible scenarios, is by doing what was done to lead us there in the first place including who we drafted, who we traded for, finishing where we did etc.
  7. Less guessing with that situation. I know for a fact we would not have Pettersson or even Hughes if that had happened.
  8. What puts Boldy over Krebs for you? For me its Krebs if he is available at 10 to play with Horvat. I think that the Pettersson line needs en established LW that can come in and have an immediate impact. Outside of Kakko I don't think anyone in the draft will be able to do that. This is where we should be looking at making a splash in free agency this year or next with Panarin, Hall, Kreider all potential free agents. Kreider/Hall Pettersson Boeser Krebs Horvat Virtanen (please god, help Virtanen reach his ceiling) Pearson Gaudette Leivo Roussel Beagle Motte
  9. the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. Drafting PLD changes our initial conditions regardless of whether or not he makes the team because the path towards Pettersson, like anything else, remains non-linear. Drafting PLD changes everything for the Canucks so there is no guarantee we draft 5th let alone draft Pettersson. E.g. Columbus drafts Pujuljarvi. Canucks draft PLD. Columbus decides to trade for Duchene from Colorado for Wrenski or something. Colorado no longer needs Makar. Colorado drafts anyone other than Makar. Canucks draft Makar. I hope my rationale translates clearly on the page lol. It seemed to make sense in my head.
  10. I don't completely agree with this. I think Byram has played himself into the top tier alongside Hughes and Kakko but there is definitely a 2nd tier which in my opinion has 4 players who have a stronger skillset than those in that third tier (arguably of course) My rankings based on what I've seen and read. Hughes Kakko Byram Turcotte Dach Podkolzin Cozens Zegras Krebs Boldy Caufield Newhook Soderstrom Broberg Seider
  11. Absolutely agree that Hughes, Juolevi, and Woo are a really good start. If all three end up being top 4 dmen which I am confident will happen then we are only missing a top pairing defenseman with Hutton, Stetcher and Rathbone likely competing for the 5 and 6 spot. In 2020 I would throw as much money as possible at Pietrangelo or Roman Josi who are likely getting between 8-10 million. For AP, who I think is the ideal partner and best fit in the entire league for Hughes, outside of Hedman I would offer 11-12m for 6-7 years. This essentially shores up your blueline. You cant expect your entire team to be drafted players. If that was the case there would be no need for trades and free agency. Hughes Pietrangelo Juolevi Woo Hutton Stetcher
  12. Then its likely you don't get Pettersson. I think I would prefer Pettersson over PLD 10 times out of 10.
  13. Only way hes going to improve his Full house Ace full of Kings (Petey, Bo, Brock and Hughes, Woo) to quad Aces. Realistically hoping for a forward - Newhook, Krebs or Podkolzin for me.
  14. The value difference is not there if the draft plays out according to the rankings. However, if one of Dach, Cozens, Podk or Turcotte fall, then 8 is a much better spot to be then 10. As I mentioned earlier if the 2nd tier is 4-10, at 10 you're sort of stuck with the last guy in the tier whilst at 8 you may have a choice between 2-4 of them.
  15. Because he's a defenseman that sucks at the fine art of defending to be quite honest
  16. That would make Benning smart since he is doing his due diligence. Any GM that takes that offer for Byram, dumba** of the year.
  17. I am fully aware of that and comparatively I have Seider after Byram, Soderstrom and Harley.
  18. Id be willing to throw them a prospect or a pick in 2020 to balance it out. Lets look at how the draft is likely to play out with no surprises keeping in mind, Soderstrom, Broberg, York and Harley are rated higher than Seider, and as well as Sieder has played I don't see him surpassing either of those dmen in the rankings. Hughes Kakko Turcotte - Chicago Kid Dach - Need secondary scoring Cozens - Need everything so Byram could go here as well Byram - Not getting past Detroit but they could take Cozens if Byram is gone Caufield - Buffalo needs goal scorers Krebs - playmaking left wing that plays a similar game to Horvat and would look great playing on the same line Boldy - With Perry, Getzlaf and Kesler on the decline I don't think they move on from a big body smooth skating winger that I believe can play C as well Podkolzin - we shouldn't pass up on him despite the Russian factor. He comes off someone that seems like a big game/playoff performer given his work ethic and skill level Zegras - Philadelphia needs wingers desperately. They have Patrick and Couturier at C and are pretty much set at D Newhook - seems like he would be a great fit with Minnesota Broberg - Florida is set up front and am 100% confident they take dman, likely a smooth skating defenseman like Broberg or Soderstrom Kaliyev - Would be a good fit in Phoenix Lavoie - Don't see how Montreal passes up on him given his local status and playoff performance Harley - York could go here as well but I think Colorado takes a dman either way with their 16th after having addressed their secondary scoring woes with Dach York - Defenseman to Ottawa I think but this is the only pick where I really have no idea who they could take. I see Seider going between 18-20. We could try and trade up higher than 20 as well and ensure we get Seider.
  19. Agree with you here. He was tried with Pettersson last year for some stretches throughout the season but didn't really show what he's doing now. He is playing very well, best I've seen since we traded for him. If we could get the 8thOA from Edmonton for Lucic, we could draft wingers for Horvat and continue playing Eriksson on that 1st line. Eriksson Pettersson Boeser Krebs Horvat Podkolzin
  20. Lucic, 8th OA, 40 OA, Pujuljarvi, Russell for Sutter (50% retained) We take on 12.5million in salary (6.5million off the books in two years). At that time we can figure out what to do with the Lucic contract which would get rid of the remaining 6million. We get 8th for taking on Lucic and Pool for taking on Russell, along with the 2nd for Sutter 50% retained. Edmonton can go ahead and make a splash in free agency. We then trade Goldobin, 38thOA, 40thOA to NYR for 20th OA. NY is only 1 year into their rebuild and would likely like adding two top 4 picks along with a Russian semi-prospect that could still work out for them. 8thOA - Podkolzin/Boldy 10thOA - Krebs/Newhook - Could always trade down to 12-14th and may still have one or both of these available as well if dmen start be taken 20thOA - Seider What could our 1st in 2020, Lind, and Eriksson fetch us in a trade? PK Subban, Mike Hoffman, etc.
  21. Agreed. Was just thinking though, if we were to get 8th OA in a Lucic trade. How many of you would be willing to trade 10th down to select Seider and grab 2 more 2nds? or a 2nd and a 3rd. Seider seems like the real deal and exactly the type of partner we would want with Huges.
  22. Don't want to trade Madden or Gaudette. All the others for the right price could definitely be had.