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Everything posted by BigTramFan
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[Discussion] What would you do?
BigTramFan replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
What did you mean by this? Buying him out in 1 year definitely concludes his buyout a year earlier, but actually costs $3m more in cap hit. See below for cap hits to VAN for different buyout timings for OEL: -
[Discussion] What would you do?
BigTramFan replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Except the availability of young top 4 free agent Dmen is non-existent in the 2024 off season. So there is definitely a cost to waiting one year and then buying out. If are going to buy out, I don't think there's a better time than now. -
[Discussion] What would you do?
BigTramFan replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
And are you suggesting we’re not competing for the next 2 seasons? -
[Discussion] What would you do?
BigTramFan replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
@Alflives and I were talking about how much money OEL actually gets paid by our owner. We were not talking about cap hit. -
[Discussion] What would you do?
BigTramFan replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
The contract is in place, so the salary pay cheques are already committed. It's just a choice as to how much you wanna pay. If you don't buyout OEL you are paying: $9.24m in 2023-24 $7.04m in 2024-25 $4.62m in 2025-26 $4.62m in 2026-27 (Total of $25.52m) or if you buyout: $2.13m for 8 years ($17m total) I'd say the latter is much more palatable in terms of actual cost and timing. -
[Discussion] What would you do?
BigTramFan replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Management will have a lot more insight and information regarding OEL and what has been impacting his performance this season. If they buy him out I believe that they will had enough knowledge to know that he couldn't handle playing 2nd pairing on a contender. If they don't buy him out, they believe he will bounce back from his injuries. Tocchet's recent comments on OEL suggest the latter, but we will see... -
[Discussion] What would you do?
BigTramFan replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Of course it would be great if we can trade Boeser, Garland and/or Myers. But if that isn't possible I think I would take a little out of each person's ideas listed so far... - Trade Beauvillier (not sure where but something like to SJS in return for their extra 2024 2nd round pick from NJD). - Buyout Garland - Waive Studnicka, Di Giuseppe, Poolman, Rathbone, Martin - Sign UFAs Graves ($5m x 5), Rodrigues ($2.5m x 2), Hathaway ($1.5m x 2), Burroughs ($775k x 2), Delia ($775k x 2) - Sign RFAs Hoglander ($950k x 2), Kravtsov ($950k x 2) Target trading Myers at TDL to try and get a return for his expiring contract. Roster for next season: -
[Discussion] What would you do?
BigTramFan replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Overall I like these moves. Good work. Still not sure about a OEL buy out. Would prefer to avoid that. If he can get back to how he was playing last season, then he can stay on that second pairing. Couple of minor points: I believe if you send Hogs to Abby next season then he will be claimed off waivers. Would prefer to keep him or find a trade partner instead of losing him for nothing. Kid is tearing it up in the AHL right now. I think he's probably playing better than Podz and Krav but they don't want to put him on the NHL roster right now because he's only a few games from needing waivers. Think they want him to experience the AHL playoffs. I am guessing if we don't move Boeser/Garland/Beauvillier in the off season, that Hogs starts next season on the big team and Podz starts in the AHL. I don't think you get Hathaway for $1m. He likely costs more than $1.5m. But lets assume you get him or someone like him for $1m. All good. With that roster and the amounts you mentioned, leaves you with only $2m to sign Bjugstad (which is probably realistic for him, but likely too low for Gaudreau) and leaves $144k of cap space. -
[Discussion] What would you do?
BigTramFan replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Yeah I think trading Beau is not a bad plan. Surely he would net a bigger return if we could keep him til the TDL and retain 50%. Stop whining about not being able to trade Myers - you're a GM, you are paid to make things work in difficult circumstances and big boys don't cry! Realistically, can you name a team that wants Myers and wouldn't be on his no-trade list? I can't -
[Discussion] What would you do?
BigTramFan replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
well that's one move that can be made, but it's certainly not the only thing that could be done. If you bought out OEL you'd have to think seriously about how we would be able to afford the $4.8m x 2 year cap penalty from 2025-2027, in addition to resigning Petey and Hronek to significant pay rises starting 2024-25. -
[Discussion] What would you do?
BigTramFan replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Let's assume there was no team that was willing to take Myers except those on his 10 team no trade list... -
[Discussion] What would you do?
BigTramFan replied to BigTramFan's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
As mentioned, he is an RFA and you could sign him... -
Let's set the scene... You are Allvin. Below is the roster of players you have signed for next season. The cap limit has been set at $83.5m and you have carryover bonuses of $850k from last season for Kuzmenko. You have been completely unable to find any trade partner to take on Boeser, Garland, Myers and Poolman during the off season. But you have 23 players signed and just $193k as cap space. Johansson is not included in your roster below but is available and signed to $884k for 2 more seasons. Poolman is actually back from LTIR and is on your roster. But Pearson remains on LTIR and will not play this season at all. Kravtsov, Hoglander, Juulsen, Dermott are RFAs and are not signed yet. Burroughs and Delia are unsigned UFAs. Bear is also UFA, as you didn't make a qualifying offer on and is looking for at least $2.5m x 2 years. Your team owner wants you to get into the playoffs. Fans are keen to revamp the D corps and get a 3C to take some pressure off your top 2 centers. What do you do to complete your roster for 2023-24?
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Thansk for your thoughts. Agreed that Foote isn't yet a top pairing Dman yet, but he has potential and the right skill sets. I'd argue strongly that Foote has a much better chance of filling that top pairing spot than Livingstone who has never played an NHL game and is only 4 months younger than Foote. Regarding TOI it's also important to look at special teams as well as 5v5. Average number of PP and PK per game is about 3 each, so there is about 6 mins of PP and 6 mins of PK and 48 mins of even strength. Obviously every game is different, so the template isn't fixed... If we had the D lineup that I proposed, then I would be happy with the following kind of breakdown of minutes in an average game: At even strength (total 48 mins): Hughes - Foote (13 mins) Hughes - Hronek (5 mins) Hughes - Schenn (3 mins) OEL - Hronek (17 mins) Brisebois - Schenn (10 mins) On PP (total 6 mins): Hughes (4 mins) Hronek (2 mins) On PK (total 6 mins): Brisebois - Schenn (3 mins) OEL - Foote (3 mins) Breakdown of TOI by player: Hughes - 25 mins (21 at ES, 4 on PP) Hronek - 24 mins (22 at ES, 2 on PP) OEL - 20 mins (17 at ES, 3 on PK) Foote - 16 mins (13 at ES, 3 on PK) Schenn - 16 mins (13 at ES, 3 on PK) Brisebois - 13 mins (10 at ES, 3 on PK) So I guess that what we would be looking for from Foote (16 mins per game) is not really out of his comfort zone right now. My hope would be that he can develop into a true top pairing guy. If anyone can help him develop, Hughes can. He makes everyone who plays with him look better than they actually are. In the interim, Schenn provides a physical presence and has known chemistry with Hughes, so seems a no-brainer to resign him as a UFA for a relatively low cap hit.
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If we are targetting the playoffs then we will need Dmen like Schenn who can hit, clear the crease and fight if need be. A 176 lb rookie like Johansson is not going to provide that.
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[Signing] Canucks re-sign Christian Wolanin
BigTramFan replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Same sort of deal in the works for Juulsen too? -
My calculations included a cap limit increase to $87.5m in 2024-25. Buying out OEL and replacing him in 2024-25 with a league min contract, then we actually save about $4m extra. That gives us about $14.6m to sign 10 players. Still don't think that's enough space to ice a competitive roster. Also need to consider it will get worse in 2025-26 when the OEL cap penalty increases to $4.5m - 4.8m from his buy out (depending on when the buyout occurs). Under certain circumstances an OEL buyout is a legit move. IMO Karlsson is not a good move.
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To VAN: Cal Foote To NSH: Conor Garland Why for NSH? Nashville trade a 3rd pairing Dman for a top 6 winger. After trading away Granlund and Niederreiter at the TDL, they could do with some more top 6 talent. NSH have depth at RD in Carrier, Barrie and Fabbro. Why for VAN? Foote has potential to be a top 4 Dman. He is big and is a defensively responsible player. VAN resigns Foote (RFA) to a $2.15m x 2 years contract. If anyone beats that with an offer sheet, then we receive a 2nd round pick as compensation. Foote has potential to be our long term partner for Hughes. My preference is also to resign Schenn as a UFA so that Hughes has both Foote and Schenn to pair with until such time that Foote can handle the 5v5 minutes. D next season: Hughes Foote OEL Hronek Brisebois Schenn (Wolanin Burroughs Juulsen) Thoughts?
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Even if the Sharks agreed to this, we wouldn't be able to afford to ice a competitive roster in 2024-25. Likely lowest new contract for Pettersson is $11m and Hronek is $7m. So that would give us this roster of 13 players signed and only $10.6m in cap space to sign another 10 players for the 2024-25 season:
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[Report/Rumour] Ethan Bear Contract Talks
BigTramFan replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Since Bear is an RFA with arbitration rights, VAN would be required to make a qualifying offer of at least $2.2m in order to maintain Bear as a RFA. Doing that risks an arbitration case that may end up paying Bear much more than $2.2m. In order to sign him for $1.5m we would have to allow his RFA rights to lapse and offer him $1.5m as a UFA. -
To those people that say "let's wait a year or two until we buy out OEL" Have a look at the numbers below that show the cap hit over time for buy outs at different times. I think they clearly show that we either buy out OEL this off season or not at all. The only significant difference between buying out in 2023 and buying out in 2024 is in the first and last year. Similarly a buy out in 2025 saves another year at the end of the contract but costs us $7.26m for the next 2 years with very little difference in cap hit in the 4 years from 2025 to 2029. Management need to think very carefully about what they do this off season with OEL. This is a massive decision that will impact this franchise for years either way they go. If they believe OEL is capable of playing 2LD for a contender for the next 4 years, then they should not buy him out. But if he is really only good enough to be a bottom pairing guy on a team that will be contending over the next 4 years, then they really need to buy him out so that we can upgrade our defense when there are some really decent UFA options available. To people that say we could move out Myers, Boeser or Garland instead. I would argue that Myers' cap hit (expiring 2024) is already earmarked to pay for rises for Petey, Podz and Hronek, plus a cheap replacement player on the bottom pairing (and we will also rely on the projected rise of the cap limit to pay for those guys because $6m won't be enough). Boeser's cap hit (expiring 2025) will be critical to pay for expected rises for Kuzmenko, Kravtsov and Hoglander. Garland is likely the guy we need to move in the short term to be able to afford a genuine 3C. If we have bought out OEL, then the 3C we are looking for is signed for only 2 years, so that his contract expires when the peak of OEL's cap hits us. At this stage we better have Raty or Aman developed enough to play 3C. And we are also relying on 1 or 2 of our young wingers (likely out of Podz, Krav, Hogs) becoming legitimate top 6 players by 2025-26. So I guess I am saying that trading Myers, Boeser and Garland does not give us the cap space that we can use to upgrade our defense, because we already have plans for the cap from those expiring contracts (and in the case of Myers and Boeser, let's hope that mgmt trades them with retention in their final year at the TDL for some decent assets). Buying out OEL is a genuine possibility this off season. Let's hope management gets this one right!
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[discussion] 3C targets for next season
BigTramFan replied to Ted Lasso's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Yeah signing someone for 2 years would also help if management are set on an OEL buy out. As the peak $4.8m cap penalty on OEL will start in 2025-26. If we had a vet 3C signed for just 2 years and then bank on Raty or Aman stepping into the role for a lower cap hit, that would help manage the cap. Eller (33) or Haula (31) could potentially be interested in a 2-year deal. But both are lefties. Other younger options like Compher, Kampf, Domi likely want something longer. Brings me back to Gaudreau or Rodrigues as UFA righty 3C's. @mll thinks Gaudreau will be resigned by MIN, so Rodrigues might be our main target if we go UFA. If we bought out OEL and traded one of Garland/Boeser we could afford $3.5m x 2 years, and still have plenty of cap available to rebuild the defense. -
I'm in two minds on this one. If we were rebuilding this team, then buying out OEL is a stupid move. But management fully intend to contend over the next 4 years. At his cap hit of $7.26m x 4 years, if OEL cannot play 2LD then I think he is essentially ~$6m of dead cap x 4 years. You can't even waive him to the AHL due to his NMC. The cost to trade him would be prohibitive, so a buy out is probably the only way to reduce the amount of dead cap during the next 4 years, when we will be contending.
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I preface this post by saying that our team defense hasn't been good enough and has left our goalies out to dry many times over. And so our SV% is not entirely on our goalies. I have been wondering where this team would be in the standings if we had average goaltending this season? The Canucks SV% for this season is sitting at 0.878. This is the 32nd SV% in the league (i.e. worst!). We have faced 2049 shots on goal and our SV% of 0.878 has meant we have let in 250 goals thus far. If the Canucks had somehow managed to hit league average goaltending this season, i.e. the 16th place SV% of 0.903. What would our goals against be? 2049 shots x (1 - 0.903) = 199 goals against So with average goaltending our GF = 220 and GA = 198. Where would that roughly put us in the standings? Well the closest team to this GF/GA record is the Jets with GF = 211 and GA = 193 The Jets are currently in the second Wild Card position and have a reasonable chance at the playoffs. If we had scored 9 more goals than them and let 5 more goals in than them, I think this means we would be in a similar position or better than the Jets right now. I'm not pinning all our troubles on our goaltending but I do find this quite interesting to think that AVERAGE goaltending (not even super double bubble Demko tending) would have put us in the running for a playoff spot at this point of the season...