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BigTramFan

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Everything posted by BigTramFan

  1. I love the idea, very creative. But I think that CBJ have only $7m in cap space for this coming season and they will likely want to create more space by buying out Wennberg themselves, and thereby only taking on his low cap hits. This would increase their cap space to $11.5m and allow them to resign PLD, some of their other RFAs, and perhaps take on a decent free agent from the market that will be full of talent that cannot be resigned by other teams.
  2. Yeah that's why I threw out to CDC for opinions. The reality for TBL is that, if they can't move any of their NTC/NMC guys, they can't keep Cernak. So they will have to move him for the best deal they can get. Is this the best deal they can get? Dunno...probably not. They won't want Virtanen because they can't afford him.
  3. OK this is something I hadn't considered. Makes sense now. Waive a valuable player that some other team would definitely pick up off waivers (even at a high salary). So TBL could get rid of someone like TJ, they just won't get any assets in return.
  4. Yep I understand all that. But if I was a forward in that group with a NTC, I would be politely saying "no way" to any trade proposals. And I am NOT saying Rafferty is some kind of Cernak replacement for TBL! At most he would play that role that Shattenkirk was playing for them. It will be interesting to see what they can do.
  5. Do you think Stamkos with his NMC is going to agree to move from TBL just because they win the cup once? I think he will refuse to move and want to stay on to create a long legacy. And so he should, they have a great chance at doing so. JB should also have Pettersson and Hughes all locked up well before they could be offer sheeted by anyone. Or at worst case he should be ready to match the highest offer.
  6. Yes of course. When you bury someone in the minors you just reduce their cap hit by $1.075m and create a roster space. The guy coming in to replace them carries his own cap hit, so you only save the difference between $1.075m and the new players cap hit. E.g. Let's save money by burying Loui and bringing up Hoglander. LE's cap hit becomes $4.925m. Hoglander adds another $892k, so the cap saving is only $183k. But I think we'd all like to see that one!
  7. They can demote Coburn to the minors and save 625k but who do they replace him with on their roster for less than 625k? They are up against it.
  8. Excellent point on the max three x RS, but we are only talking about one season for Rafferty and if he fills a D slot for $350k for one season until TBL can clear more space by moving TJ, then maybe it works for them. I guess it depends on how many other players on RS they are looking to add - probably as many as possible!
  9. A right side of Cernak, Myers, Tryamkin would be great...
  10. All good points, but Palat and TJ both have NTC. They are not waiving to go Detroit! Haha. Next season TJ moves to a M-NTC, so he will be traded then to clear more space. Can't see anyone waiving to leave TBL.
  11. Only because I don't think we can afford to trade for Sergachev! My guess is that he gets traded to the Blues for some serious assets, which will include some great players on retained salaries so that the effective cost to TBL is very low
  12. Coburn has NTC, don't think he would agree to move, as he only has one season left, and then may retire. Let's say they manage to low ball Cernak into a $3m bridge contract and they have traded Killorn for space. They only have $6.8m to sign another 7 players to their roster. Can't see them flooding their roster with 7 guys on ELCs.
  13. Offer sheets haven't worked for years. I would be keen to avoid an offer sheet to keep a good trading relationship with Tampa, because they will be moving out more assets in the future. Also you can bet that TBL have already moved Cernak before they risk losing him to an offer sheet. Finally, we're not retaining on Beagle and Rafferty for the sake of VAN, it is to generate the value to get Cernak off their hands. My sense is that Cernak could be a core piece for VAN.
  14. Everyone knows it. TBL are in cap trouble. Cap hell. Worse than cap hell! I'm gonna assume that NONE of their NTC and NMC players will accept a trade to another team. Why would they? They earned the clause in their contract and they will want to stay with a contending team, even more so if they win the CUP. The only players that can be traded are: Point Killorn (m-NTC) Coleman Paquette Goodrow I can't see them trading Point - he's too good. Coleman, Paquette, Goodrow are on very friendly contracts and probably can't be replaced for better value, so they won't be traded either. Killorn is definitely getting traded. This leaves them with $9.78m in cap space to sign at least 8 players to fill their roster. All 3 of their big name RFA's (Cirelli, Sergachev, Cernak) are going to cost them at least $4m each. They really cannot afford to pay any one of them that much, since it won't leave enough space to fill the rest of their roster. I believe that TBL will look to trade these big name RFAs in return for some very good NHL players on retained salaries, so that they can fill their roster with talent at very low cost. It has me wondering whether VAN has some assets that TBL could desire. What TBL need most are Dmen and bottom 6 players. They will also be looking for picks and prospects. Would this trade appeal?... To TBL: Beagle (50% retained) - $1.5m Rafferty (50% retained) - $350k Woo 2021 2nd round pick To VAN: Cernak (already signed to $4m x 4 years by TBL before trading) For TBL they get some serious PK and FO firepower in Beagle for their bottom 6, plus Rafferty in their defense mix (all for only $1.85m). Woo stays in the minors and is ready in 1-2 years. Plus a 2nd rounder. For VAN we get a cost controlled young Dman with mobility and size. Perfect complement to Hughes. Replacement for Tanev. Will be interested to hear if you think we're paying too much, or whether you think TBL laughs and hangs up the phone...
  15. Some corrections and clarifications to your comments: 1. Nucks have $14.3m in cap space 2. This includes the $1.7m in performance bonus overages from last season (which must be paid in 2020/21) but does not include the estimated $4.55m of performance bonuses during the 2020/21 season. If we choose not to accrue the $4.55m this year, by maintaining our roster $4.55m below the cap limit, then we MUST pay it next year. This would create a $4.55m cap hit next season, right when we are squeezed by Pettersson and Hughes' new contracts. 3. Burying LE and Baer saves $1.075m each (total $2.15m) but that saving will be eaten up by the cap hit of whoever replaces them on the roster. Even an ELC player costs in the vicinity of $0.9m, so you might save about $400k total by waiving both LE and Baer. 4. Putting Ferland on LTIR will not help in regards to the $4.55m in bonuses. We need to keep him on IR (not LTIR) and be $4.55m under the cap in order to pay for those bonuses during this season. 5. Stecher is NOT under contract for next season, so he can't be "replaced" by Rafferty. If we call Rafferty up to the NHL then that takes up a further $700k of cap space. There are no "savings" with this move. 6. Same goes for Marky. He is not under contract, so moving on from him does not save us anything. Instead we will have to pay $2.5-3.5m for a decent backup goalie. 7. Replacing Benn with Juolevi saves about $1.1m in cap space, but remember Juolevi has a performance bonus of $0.85m so we may have to accoutn for that too as our $4.55m bonus total goes up to $5.4m. It's only a potential saving of $0.25m. 8. Loui is very unlikely to walk away IMO. I would love that to happen, but it is wishful thinking and we are talking about the real world. Caveat: Note not all players hit their performance bonuses every year, but we have some seriously good ELC players and they are likely to hit theirs IMO
  16. We're trying to flatten the cap hit to Vancouver, and for this reason LE's contract is almost buy out proof for VAN. If NJD are considering buying out Cory Schneider, why not propose the following trade? To VAN: Schneider To NJD: Eriksson We buy out Cory, they buy out LE. It costs NJD a total of $3.66m in actual $ paid over four years to buy out Loui. The cap hit per year is $5.7m, $3.7m, $0.7m and $0.7m. They have plenty of cap space in the next 2 years. Buying out Cory costs $8m over 4 years. With cap hit of $2m per year. So NJD saves about $4.3m in actual dollars, and VAN saves cap space in the next 2 years to help resign Petey & Hughes.
  17. Do you guys think Roussel would be moveable on his own? Or perhaps with something like Stecher or Virtanen's rights? Or both together? Maybe NJD might take a look...they need help on D, in their bottom 6, and could be interested in taking a flyer on a young winger like Virtanen...
  18. Here's what I said: "We cannot resign any of these guys without clearing cap in the form of Eriksson, Sutter, Baer, Roussel, etc." You have pointed out that THEORETICALLY we could resign ONE of Markstrom, Tanev or Toffoli. Great you win the debate. I am happy that you (and perhaps others reading this) have now also realised that doing without clearing cap would mean that we have to live with either 6 Dmen or a rookie/league minimum backup goalie to Demko as the starter. I don't think that is palatable, but sure it is theoretically possible. Regarding your comment about movement. Yes, of course, I believe there will be movement. Preferably lots of movement, if JB can achieve this. It is necessary if we want to stay competitive. The movement needs to be the likes of Eriksson, Sutter, Baer, Roussel...as per what I original said. Whether you think the contracts are 'bad' or whether you think that is hyperbole, doesn't really matter. You're getting into subjective area there. I personally think they're bad contracts at this point, but everyone has their own opinion. I'm missing the context on this comment, but are you trying to say that there is $11m in cap space because of bonus overages are not included? The performance overages for 2019/20 are included in Capfriendly's totals for this coming season, and these have to be paid during this coming season, so there isn't $1.7m of extra space, as these cannot be pushed any further than this season.
  19. Ok let's call it $6m in space to sign a Dman and a goalie. So it won't be Toffoli cuz he's not a G or D. If we sign Marky for $6m with that space then what, are we going to run with only 6 D's? Nope. If we instead sign Tanev for $4.0-4.5m then we have $1.5-2.0m left to spend on a backup goalie - may as well bring up DiPietro? Mmm don't think so. Not ready yet. The one thing I agree with is your last statement - we WILL be moving out some redundant contracts. That is why I said at the start we aren't going to resign any of those guys unless we can move out contracts such as Eriksson, Sutter, Baer, Roussel. Finally, regarding expiring cap in 2021/22 - we have $19.5m coming off from Pearson, Edler, Sutter, Baer, Benn. These contracts will have to be replaced to fill the roster. So even if we let them all walk and replace with ELCs, then this comes to about $14.5m to pay for Petey and Hughes pay rises. Hopefully that will be enough, but if we push $4.55m of performance overages into that season, then the space comes down to $9m...which won't get them both signed.
  20. Again, apologies for rounding that creates a difference of $1m. If you think that changes the situation then I am happy for you. Maybe it means that Stecher could be resigned as Tanev's replacement. Woo hoo, big deal. I just covered the "potential" part in my previous post. Would you bet against those guys hitting their bonuses? I remain unconvinced of any of your arguments.
  21. 1. Capfriendly shows $4.55m in potential performance bonuses in 2020/21. I wouldn't bet against Petey and Hughes hitting these. Add in Juolevi, who is surely going to be on the roster next season, and it pushes up to $5.4m. No one know how much it will actually be until they play and earn them, but I wouldn't want $5m pushed into 2021/22. Would you? 2. Correct $14.3m. Sorry if that extra $0.3m helps resign Markstrom, you can have it. The only bonuses that are accounted for are the $1.7m pushed from this season, the approx $5m that I mentioned in point #1 are not included. 3. I never said we can't sign them. I said we cannot sign without clearing cap or pushing bonuses to 2021/22.
  22. You can only "save" by giving up something you already own. Marky (and Tanev and Toffoli) are UFAs. We don't own them anymore. If we don't retain them, we save nothing. As I have shown you, we are already up against the cap limit without these guys. Replacing them with cheaper players will cost us whatever the new player costs.
  23. My original post said: We cannot resign any of these guys without clearing cap in the form of Eriksson, Sutter, Baer, Roussel, etc I still stand by that statement. “These guys” referring to Marky, Tanev and Toffoli. You’re trying to make an argument about whether Sutter etc are ‘bad‘ contracts. You’re missing the point. Whether you think they’re bad or not, we will have to move some of those contracts to sign even one of Marky, Tanev or Toffoli. Pretty simple.
  24. In the post that you quoted, we would be up against the cap limit without Stecher, Virtanen, Marky, Tanev, Toffoli. Tell me how you can retain any one of these guys without pushing the 2020/21 performance bonuses into 2021/22.
  25. I don’t know if you read what I wrote, but we won’t have Stecher or Virtanen anyway, so replacing them with anyone does not provide any cap savings.
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