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Guile

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Abbotsford Regular (3/14)

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  1. OP, great topic! I'd say not too much changes other than what AJ suggests here. Continue moving out inefficient / ill-fitting cap and reallocate money to defensive defensemen. Maybe Bedard's presence makes it extra logical to move both Garland and Boeser. If anything, it probably makes management more aggressive in clearing cap sooner than later. Does it suddenly make an OEL + future 1st cap dump make sense so we maximize Bedard's ELC time? Not that I'm advocating for that; just speculating how Allvin would respond.
  2. Myers and Garland traded in the offseason. Garland is replaced from within given our glut of winger's. Bargain bin shopping for inexpensive defensive depth; I won't be horribly upset if they don't find a top-4 D this offseason, that can wait. Resign Schenn if he's open to it. Assuming a replacement RHD costs no more than 1.5M, removing Garland (2.5-5M) and Myers (3-6M) plus adding the replacement D saves 4-5M minimum, depending on retention %. Definitely expect to retain on Myers, and wouldn't mind retaining on Garland even though we then only have 1 retention slot for TDL. I would use that final slot (or both, if Garland goes without retention) on either Boeser or Beauvilier at the 2024 TDL. I'm very reluctant to hope for any sort of skating or just hustle mentality improvement from Brock after this long in the league, so I feel it's best if the Canucks move on from him and his inefficient cap, but I would hate to give him up just for the sake of creating room without a decent return (2nd or B prospect). Hoping for some miracle on the OEL front but I am expecting him to remain a Canuck next year, paired with a mobile guy (either Hronek or Bear) to attempt to mask his horrendous foot speed. Really hoping to avoid a buyout on him.
  3. Trading Beauvilier 50% retained at the TDL is also a great option. Yes, this doesn't solve our cap challenges for the start of the year and will greatly depend on other transactions, but a 2.1M cap hit speedy second line winger who elevates in the playoffs is a valuable asset. Niederreiter (4M) got a second with no retention. Have to think Beau is worth at least that, perhaps more, if the market stays similar next year and he has an 80+ game track record of top 6 play with the Canucks.
  4. You're absolutely right - my pairing of Hughes with Livingstone certainly isn't to say that Livingstone will step into a top four. From the few minutes of scouting clips I've watched, he seems to be a smart, mobile defender. I'm a fan of playing smart players together and I think that Quinn could take pressure off him by being our best breakout player and (hopefully) preventing too many extended D zone shifts for the rookie. Perhaps Hronek is paired with Quinn instead and they become a very strong duo. I also agree that the Canucks only have two top 4 defenders and need another two before becoming contenders. From my perspective, no chance that happens next year. I think a year of patience, cap clearing moves, and avoiding short term fixes is the best path forward, and like you, I don't think we have the cap flexibility or draft capital to finish the roster overhaul next season alone.
  5. I'm torn between these two - what makes you prefer moving Boeser over Garland? For me, Garland fits the Tocchet team style better than Boeser and has been playing fairly well since the coaching change. I think that and his contract makes him easier to move for "good" value. I'd love to see a healthy Mikheyev with Miller and Boeser to see if BB produces a little more and hides some flaws with help from Mik's speed. Total guesswork, but just my fantasy.
  6. SO, one big circled date on the calendar has passed. What are the top few moves from our CDC GMs for the betterment of this franchise between now and next season that are at least partially realistic/expected (ie no trading OEL or landing Bedard type miracles)? Obvious things we'd probably all like to see: Lose aplenty, draft an elite C prospect with our 2023 1st Sign RD College FA Jake Livingstone Trade Myers 50% retained after his July 1 bonus Things I think we're likely to see: JT Miller remains a Canuck Pearson is moved or bought out, and no, I haven't checked if a buyout is logical Dermott not resigned RD Filip Johansson makes the 23-man starting roster OEL remains a Canuck (I don't want that buyout but I'd desperately like to see him playing 3 LD minutes / role) Things I'd really like to see: Garland traded/packaged for a YOUNG, developing D (not an older Marcus Pettersson or equivalent win-now option) or pick(s) after having a strong finish to the year playing top 6 under Tocchet. Bear re-signed if the cap hit matches a 3 RD price. A Boeser trade in off-season so he gets a fresh start OR one last chance for a calm, healing off-season to revive his game, making him a logical 2024 TDL trade while NOT depressed in value. No premium FA signings 2023-24 Opening Night Lineup Kuzmenko - EP - Beauvilier Mikheyev - Miller - Boeser Kravtsov - Raty - Podkolzin Hoglander - Aman - Studnicka/Joshua L. Karlsson Hughes - Livingstone XXXX (Garland D?) - Hronek OEL - Bear XXXX - Johansson Demko Cheap backup (leave Silovs in Abby 1 more year)
  7. Both Dries and Pederson nominally play as centers when playing for Abby, yes? Is Dowling playing C just out of necessity, with those two called up, and is a winger by default?
  8. As many others on these forums have stated, it's very exciting to see the progress being made by our young guys in Abby; here's hoping they all stay put until next season. I have tickets to see the parent Canucks play the Wild on March 2, but I'm thinking I'll have to make the drive out to Abbotsford to watch a baby Nucks game in the next month or two as well. If healthy and bolstered by the current call-ups, what does Abby's best lineup look like? Based on names alone, I'll give it a shot, but hoping for feedback from the regular viewers. No clue who has chemistry with who, aside from the 4th line and top two D pairs below. Di Giuseppe - Dries - Dowling Podz - Pederson - Karlsson Hogz - Aman - Lockwood Bains - Wouters - Klimovich Brisebois - Juulsen Wolanin - Woo Kalynuk - Rathbone / AKL? Silovs / Delia
  9. For those who watch Abby closely, what's the best healthy lineup they could ice come playoff time? Compared to last night's lineup below, who lines up where if they get all injured / called up guys back, including Podz, Petan, Di Giuseppe, Juulsen, Dowling, Bailey? I'm not up on the latest injury reports so if a guy is slated to be out for the season and not available in the playoffs, leave him out. That defence looks really strong to my eye but I feel like they're missing a lot of potential top six or middle six forwards.
  10. @Chip Kelly I'll echo what the rest of the folks on here have said, and add that another great book is "The only guide to a winning investment strategy you'll ever need" by Larry Swedroe. My old man gave me that book and a cheque for my 18th birthday and I couldn't be more grateful - that was the start of my financial education. I'd say pick your first investment (I'd go a diverse ETF like VSP, XEQT, VUN, etc.) and then really monitor how it behaves over time as various pieces of news and world events occur. That will teach you what you need to know to progress into other ETFs that cover companies of different sizes, different growth/value characteristics, and different regions of the world. I started with an investment into CIBC just to start monitoring and learning like I mentioned above, then built out my portfolio with a few core ETFs to get all the size/region exposure I wanted, and then started trying individual stock picking once I had built a solid base portfolio and a base of knowledge about the market. I'd caution against jumping right into picking individual stocks, I know I would have made many more mistakes along the way.
  11. I have a question or two for some of the folks on here who participate in short-term investing/speculation/individual stock selection and are much more active managers than myself, just out of interest and for my own learning. To be clear, I consider myself too inexperienced (been investing just 2.5 years) and underfunded to delve into strategies with higher risk, plus I first learned about investing from authors with the perspective that EMH and low-cost indexing/asset allocation is the winning strategy for most individual investors and that perspective is hard to shake (nor should it be shaken, perhaps). That said, this year has offered up some shockingly profitable short-term opportunities, as I've observed by watching the markets and reading through this thread, at times. So, essentially, I'd love to hear if the bolded strategies have worked for people consistently, producing returns that exceed "the market" by an amount that compensates for the additional effort it takes to research and select individual up-and-comers, momentum trades, and/or recent IPOs. I also am interested in knowing how large a portion of a portfolio you devote to such strategies and if you have a more conservative core of ETFs and/or blue chip companies. What are your thoughts on indexing? Thanks to the pandemic, I saw the merits of picking individual stocks with healthy balance sheets and stable/growing dividends vs buying an index and potentially being weighed down by the companies in financial distress, and have shifted my buys this year accordingly (XSU in April but then BPY-UN, GWO, SU, EMA, GRT-UN, ENB between May and October), but I still believe a portfolio of ETFs with proper asset allocation producing market returns will be a quality strategy over my 40+ year investment horizon. Finally, for anyone, thoughts on gold's recent pullback and future outlook? I see a ton of market optimism due to vaccine news currently, but I think that QE and the next stimulus package will really push gold prices in the next couple years. I have some XGD from May 2019 at an average cost of 11.40, which was pure beginner's luck, but also bought Barrick a couple months ago and am down a healthy 22%, so been thinking about averaging down there. Thanks in advance!
  12. Comets up 2-0 on two goals from the fourth line!
  13. Comets dominating - Rafferty is super smooth.
  14. Juolevi-Sautner Brisebois-Rafferty Teves-Chatfield I believe Fourth Line Arseneau-Bancks-Perron
  15. So far, Bailey-Gaudette-MacEwen Boucher-Camper-Lind Baertschi-Jasek-Goldy
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