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GritGrinder

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Everything posted by GritGrinder

  1. No sense contemplating all the possible scenarios of which team beats which on any given night. Frankly its just headache/anxiety inducing in terms of fandom. I like to keep it simple. All 4 teams currently in North playoff position are on pace for 65pts or higher and the pre-season consensus from most sites/insiders/prognosticators was that 65pts is what was needed for 4th in the North. 30-21-5 minimum is what the Canucks need. So just watch and try to enjoy each game and countdown each regulation loss from the 9 that the Canucks can afford. Once they hit 21 regulation losses the playoffs literally hang in the balance.
  2. The biggest problem I see with this is that Boston is still in a "win now" mode and probably see themselves as a legit Cup contender. Carlo and Coyle are contributing to that "win now" mode today, whereas Gaudette and a 1st that "could take years to get up to good NHL speed" would be a step back in their "win now" window.
  3. Looking at the year Bo was a -30. CF 45.8% FF 44.4% PDO 97.1 43.0% oZone starts 57.0% dZone starts. The way Willie used a 20 year old Bo in terms of zone starts are a a big reason he was -30. Bo is good defensively but I don't exactly see any Selke votes the past few seasons. Here are Quinn's stats so far this season. CF 51.3% FF 49.2% PDO 97.1 67.8% oZone starts 32.2% dZone starts. The #'s aren't too bad but when you take into account the zone starts they are pretty bad. What if Quinn was used the way Bo was used as a 20 year old and had 43% oZone and 57% dZone starts. I shudder to think what Quinn's #'s would look like right now but somewhere around -20 CF 45% FF 42% PDO 93. So no Quinn is not defensively responsible yet and he doesn't really "eat minutes that nobody else does against the opponents best players", he's at 22:14 per game with no PK time and 4:35 on the PP. He's a PP specialist who uses his deployment and skating to avoid being a complete defensive disaster.
  4. But what is the "reality" of this team? The Canucks were trending in the wrong direction when the season shut down last March. 6-9-2 in their previous 13 and they had 13 games to go. Had they finished the final 13 games and gone something like 7-4-2 and squeaked into one of the 2 wildcards then had 2-3 days off and took on the Blues and then Vegas then that would have been a "solid showing" in both finishing the regular season strong and having a playoff run. But that's not "reality". Reality is they didn't have to finish strong, they had 5 months off and were gifted being part of the 24 team bubble. In the bubble they went 10-7 with a +3 goal differential in 31 days. Not exactly great hockey. Take out the play-in against Minny and its a 7-6 record and +1 goal differential in 23 days. Again not great other than the fact the NHL called it the playoffs. It looks like the "reality" is that the Canucks are more like the struggling team at the end of last season than the "solid showing" team from the bubble.
  5. The timing of having to sign internal UFA's and RFA's is the crucial part for Benning right now. The cap is going to remain flat for at least next season and even if it goes up for 2022-23 and 2023-24 it will likely only go up by roughly $2m per season based on previous cap lifts. This is where JB has to be careful with the term of the assumed bridge deals for EP, Hughes and Demko. 2 year bridge deals would be quite possibly the worst move he could make and needs to get 3 yr deals done. 2 yr deals would mean that on July 1st 2023 Bo and JT would be UFA's and EP, Hughes, Demko and Hoglander will be RFA's all looking for raises and Brock will have to be signed the year before and he's on pace for quite a raise. With the cap likely being somewhere around $85m for 23-24 that only gives JB and extra $4m than he has to work with now. Worse case scenario is that the Canucks fall further out of contention in the next couple of weeks while EP, Hughes, Hoglander and Brock pile up their stats. Just remember Hall, Eberle and RNH would rack up 200+pts between the 3 of them and the Oilers would be at the bottom of the league year after year. Brock and Quinn are among the league leaders, EP, Bo and Miller are close to point per game players and yet 3rd worst team in the league. JB has harder decisions to make than some people think. Lets hope he makes the right ones or his replacement does.
  6. I love how everyone is piling on Buffalo when even with all their issues they STILL have a better record right now than the Canucks in a way tougher division than the North. Sabres currently have a 13.4% chance to make the playoffs and the Canucks 4.2%. The lack of self-awareness among Canuck fans is absolutely amazing sometimes.
  7. 14 losses in just over 5 weeks. 16-21-4 the last 41 regular season games. As of tonight’s games they need to go 22-9-3 to get 4th in the North. Don’t worry though, next seasons training camp is tentatively scheduled to start 7 months from tomorrow.
  8. But that means that in 2 years Bo, JT, EP and Hughes will all need to be resigned and I don’t see the cap going up much if at all by then.
  9. Your whole last paragraph is the epitome of the loser mentality that has surrounded this team and it’s fans for over 50yrs.
  10. Anyone comparing what happened between Forbort and Hoglander to the Bertuzzi/Moore incident should be banned from watching hockey for the next 5 years. I don’t care how many screenshots you post.
  11. Not the same at all. Bertuzzi stalked Moore most of that game and suckered him from behind and then drove his head into the ice while they were skating at nearly full speed. Forbort engaged with Hogs at the whistle and they were facing each other, and gave him a couple of short punches before the scrum ensued. To try and compare one of the worst incidents in NHL history to what happened last night is pretty laughable actually.
  12. Watch the play 5 seconds before the grab from behind, Hogs is facing Forbort and then turns his back and Forbort grabs/punches him again and the scrum ensues. I wish Hoglander would have just grabbed or swung on Forbort instead of turning away, like I said it would have ended in the same scrum and Hogs would not have been any worse for wear and might have got in a shot or 2. Nothing to do with toughness, just competitive nature.
  13. Its a human nature issue not an NHL ref issue. There is probably a non-call in the last 5 mins of most 1 goal games in the NHL. Just like there is probably a foul on every NBA play in the last 5 mins and there is probably holding or pass interference on every play in the last drive of an NFL game. The strike zone tends to change a bit later in MLB games. The NHL is not unique in this "issue". Watch the play 5 seconds before this, Hogs is facing Forbort and then turns his back and Forbort grabs/punches him again and the scrum ensues. I wish Hoglander would have just grabbed or swung on Forbort instead of turning away, like I said it would have ended in the same scrum.
  14. No, Forbort should have been given a penalty for crosschecking with 5+mins to go to give the Canucks a PP. Hoglander should have just clenched up with Forbort or just started swinging instead of turning his back when Forbort grabbed him at the end. Hogs might have got a shot or 2 in and it would have ended in the same scrum. Good teams battle through adversity, including terrible reffing (2011 Canucks, you remember them right Deb ;)). And I honestly feel it all equals out in the end and the Canucks are not the victim of some decades long conspiracy involving the league, refs and any # of owners the fans think are singling out the Canucks as a target for nefarious reffing. Call it CDC-Anon instead of Q-Anon.
  15. It's irrelevant if you worked for JP in 72. And yes I'm old enough to remember his stick swinging in Moscow. Who is "we"? You don't work for the Canucks and I don't care how long you've been a fan, you don't know these people and they don't know you. They are people you watch on TV and maybe from afar behind glass if you're lucky. Criminal negligence?!?!!? For not calling a penalty in an NHL game? An absolutely insane comment. What is "necessary"? Deliberately injuring a ref and being banned for life? Like i said. Get. A. Grip.
  16. Get a grip man. You sound like an unhinged maniac posting sh*t like this.
  17. Tippett has the Oilers playing some solid hockey since their poor start. They are 10-5 since their 1-3 start (same start as the Canucks). 9 of the 10 wins in regulation. In all 5 losses they led or were tied in 3rd period and have been in position to win in all 15 games.
  18. Gotta hand it to the pre-season prognosticators. Pretty much everywhere I checked had the 4th place team in the North finishing at 65pts and looking at the pace for each of the teams roughly 1/3 of the way through the season they were bang on. Toronto on pace for 72pts Montreal on pace for 68pts Winnipeg on pace for 65pts Edmonton on pace for 64pts 30-21-5 is the "magic" # in terms of a minimum record needed for the playoffs meaning the Canucks can realistically afford to lose 9 more games in regulation before the playoff dream is all but dead.
  19. Just looking at some more stats and even though the "eye test" shows that Boeser is having a much better season than last season the #'s don't really support it. 21 games 2019-20 9g 11a 20pts +3 2020-21 12g 9a 21pts -1 2019-20 CF 53.2% FF 54.3% PDO 100.5 Ozone starts 56.2% Dzone starts 43.8 (57 games) 2020-21 CF 51.5% FF 51.7% PDO 99.3 Ozone starts 70.6% Dzone starts 29.4 (21games) He's getting almost 15% more Ozone starts so far this season yet his Corsi, Fenwick and PDO have all gone down. Getting 15% more ozone starts probably should have translated to more than 3 extra goals, 1 extra point and -4 +/-. If he can stay healthy and Green keeps deploying him and the current 70/30 split he should be able to get to 30 goals in 56 games.
  20. I saw an earlier posting so I thought I'd look up a bit of a weird stat. Assists and how the Canucks rank. First I looked at the North division and the goals/assists for each team and the differential. Goals/Assists Tor. 67/119 +52 1.77 A/PG (assists per goal) Edm. 65/111 +46 1.71 A/PG Van. 61/94 +33 1.54 A/PG Wpg. 57/102 +47 1.79 A/PG Mtl. 52/79 +27 1.52 A/PG Cgy. 46/78 +32 1.69 A/PG Ott. 44/80 +36 1.82 A/PG Not sure what's happening in Montreal but is it a coincidence that the top 3 in differential are currently 1-2-3 in the division (1-3-4 Pts%) and the 4-5-6 in differential are 5-6-7 in the division? Does a higher goals/assists differential somehow correlate to a better record? You would think not, but here we are. Some other assist related Canuck stats. 5 players have at least 1 goal and no assists. (Tor. has 3 as a comparison) 6 players have played at least 9 games and have 0 assists (Tor. has 2) 5 players who have scored at least 5 goals have more goals than assists. (3 in the top 6) (Tor. has 2) Not 100% sure what to make of these #'s but I'm going to keep an eye on these and see if they change in the next 20 games or so and how they affect the standings.
  21. Just 8 more wins in a row and the Canucks are back on playoff pace (16-11-1 at the halfway point of the season). The next 11 games in 23 days will make or break the season. No games against Ottawa or a flawed Flames team that looks like the Canucks from the last few seasons relying way too much on Markstrom. WPGx4, EDMx3, TORx2, MTLx2 with 9 of the 11 being at home. .500 is not nearly enough and something closer to 8-2-1 is what's needed to really get the season back on track. At the beginning of the season I had a "magic" minimum record that I thought would guarantee 4th place. 30-21-5 and I still stand by that. So realistically the Canucks can only lose 10 more games in regulation before they are practically eliminated from playoff contention. **I posted this on another thread so apologies if you're reading this twice.**
  22. Just 8 more wins in a row and the Canucks are back on playoff pace. The next 11 games in 23 days will make or break the season. No games against Ottawa or a flawed Flames team that looks like the Canucks from the last few seasons relying way too much on Markstrom. WPGx4, EDMx3, TORx2, MTLx2 with 9 of the 11 being at home. .500 is not nearly enough and something closer to 8-2-1 is what's needed to really get the season back on track.
  23. If the Canucks can ring off 9 in a row starting tonight and get to 16-11-1 at the halfway point of the season they would be just ahead of the 65pt pace that 4th in the North will likely finish with. "4th in the North" can be the rallying chant for the next 3 weeks.
  24. Not sure why Carolina keeps Skjei instead of Pesce though. Pesce is younger, bigger, makes $1m less aav and his #'s are similar or better than Skjei over the last couple of seasons.
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