Maddogy
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Everything posted by Maddogy
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Canucks played well against Blues, Capitals, Kings, Ducks and Sharks this year. I think Vancouver can deal with size but not speed. With speed the opposing team can skate circles in Vancouver's D zone and trap the Canucks there. When the puck is finally out of the D zone the Canucks are tired and have to make a change so they can come back to D zone and defend all over again. Even though Vancouver guards the front of the net very well, if the opposing teams generate enough shots, some are bound to go in, despite of the fact that Markstrom seems to excel in games that have many shots against. This is essentially the weakness of the Canucks D system. The Canucks coaching staff chose this system sometimes ago and I would imagine that they do not think the team has the personnel to play a more man to man style of D coverage.
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Boeser is as frustrating as some other players such as Patrick Laine and Jeff Skinner. They put up the stats but they do not drive plays the way Ovechkin does. They tend to disappear when the game intensifies. Part of it may be lack of talent but certainly it’s their approach/philosophy of the game. Bo Horvat is significantly less talented but he gets it. Bo knows when to push the pace and not to slow it down. Once Boeser gets the puck he has a tendency to slow down the play. Boeser has absolutely no idea what to do on PP1. He kills plays on PP1. This may be due to a lack of talent. I do like Boeser’s attitude. He is coachable and he is no longer an one dimensional player. Boeser has to reinvent himself for the NHL. He can become another JT Miller with size, grit and decent hands. He can try to release his shot quicker with more deception. He should improve his release at speed as well as deking, both of which are average. I think Boeser will be like Miller in the sense that it will take a few years for him to get it.
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[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Maddogy replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
I don't think think it is clear what Minnesota's organizational timeline is. Are they ready for the full rebuild which means that they want 18-19 years old as well as draft picks, or are they wishing to retool their team with players in the 20's? It is much more difficult to find a trade partner for the latter route. -
[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Maddogy replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
I don't think Minnesota will consider trading Dumba to Vancouver unless the following is on the table: 2020/2021 1st round pick 2020 second round pick Nils Hoglander Another good prospect such as Vasily Podkolzin and Michael Dipietro. I think Brogan Rafferty may be "too old" for Minnesota's timeline if they have the patience for a long rebuild. This is especially considering that Minnesota may have to take on salary from Vancouver. Minnesota's perception is that they are offering a (potential) franchise D who is 25 years old on a great contract. Dumba is not having a great season. It would be up to Vancouver's pro-scouts to decide whether he still have realistic upside and whether he is a legit top pairing D. -
Right on! But many fans on this forum overvalue our prospects. Vasily is a very raw talent and I am not confident he is getting the seasoning required to direct his development properly. I would have a much higher level of confidence for his future if he is playing in Utica right now. All in all it is a good pick at #10.
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My biases: - I do not overvalue some of the Canucks prospects as many fans here do - Jake is a good kid but he has that frat boy demeanor to him My opinion: Jake was a good pick at the time of the draft. However, I do think J.B. would have selected a different player if he had available to him his current 2020 draft and management team in place. Jake was overvalued as many big 18 years old kids are in the sense that they were able to bully other players with their size in junior but they can no longer play that style in the NHL. As a result, It took Jake several years in the AHL and NHL to improve his defensive play and consistency. I do not recall anyone praising his D play and consistency during his draft year. Due to a somewhat average level of hockey IQ, Jake did not just "get it" the way Pettersson, Boeser and Hughes did. He had to rely on the slow and painful accumulation of years of AHL and NHL experience to learn to play the NHL system and play with his NHL teammates. The most important indicator for Jake's future is whether or not he is driven to continue to improve his game every single season. If he is his ceiling would likely be a second line winger on a good team. I am still not convinced of his ambition or drive despite of his improvement in the past 20 games because I am ignorant of how his personal life is going. Is he in a serious relationship? Is he looking to get married in the near future? Does he appreciate that now he needs to build a career to support his family. Has he turned that corner becoming a "man" rather than a boy mentally? It is not a coincidence that many of the leaders on our team are married or engaged. Full disclosure, I am against the institution of marriage.
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My biases: I’m not as rosy glassed about Canucks prospects as many fans are. My opinions: So far this season Boeser developed into a well rounded winger that can defend and win puck battles. He is not strong and quick as Miller. He is not as good of a passer as Pettersson. He prefers slowing down the plays rather than moving his feet and create openings. He is often the weakest link on PP1 making poor passes, fail to get the puck on net or fail to move his feet. Boeser should learn from Horvat that he should be moving his feet constantly to create time and space for himself as well as his linemates. I am somewhat concerned that his preference for slowing down plays may originate from a lack of skill. You may play fast in NCAA but NHL speed may overwhelm you. On the top line, Boeser is the slowest player both physically and mentally. This is why Virtanen had some shifts on the top line. I predict that Boeser will become faster in the next 2 seasons. In contrast, we know that Horvat has already peaked in terms of his speed.
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My Biases: - On a philosophical level I disagree with J.B. on the Miller trade because his timeline for the team is too optimistic. - I do really appreciate that J.B. operates by timeline though My opinion: - This team's core players are too young to lead this team. It took Nathan Mackinnon 5 seasons to reach dominance. - This team's net front presence is OK - This team is noticeably lackluster in breakaways, 2 on 1 and 3 on 2 situations. This may indicate a lack of skill. - Players on PP1 are still getting the feel of what a dominant PP should feel like - It is still an open question whether Boeser is an elite/franchise winger, he is not much of a factor on PP1, he should switch spots with Miller and give it a try - The most questionable thing about the coaching staff is whether they can coach the type of defence that the Canucks players are capable of executing. If the players do not have the skills, experience or inclination to play defence the way the coaching staff wishes, the staff needs to be let go due to misfit/mismatch. - Players such as Leivo, Virtanen and Gaudette are still "finding themselves". This is absolutely normal for bunch of "kids". It is fair to demand them to make progress every year, but it is too early to demand much more than that. My recommendation: - J.B. should speak with the whole team and tell them it is up to them to decide which direction this team goes. If they get back on the playoff path the organization may even make certain short term moves to ensure a playoff appearance. However, if they do not steer this ship back to success, he will have to do what is in the organization's best interest. Some of their teammates will be traded (e.g. Tanev, possibly Markstrom). My prediction for 2020: Either we miss the playoffs and finally get some luck in the draft lottery or we squeeze into the playoffs during the final 10 days.
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You have a good point. However, what I meant is that the core should not be regarded as complete. More pieces need to be added. While I philosophically wish the team to tank and get 1st overall picks every year, I appreciate J.B.'s perspective that once a losing culture and bad habits set in, they may ruin the core players. While I disagreed with J.B. on many occasions, I find myself defending him in this forum because his critics are too harsh and they believe in magic and unicorns.
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My biases: - I am philosophically against the Miller trade because the core players are still too young to lead this team - I thought the Miller trade was somewhat of an over payment considering the situation Tampa was in, but this is difficult to judge as I did not know how many teams for vying for Miller at the time - It is too early to call this season off, if other teams can have an amazing win streak to come back from the dead, this team can as well My opinion: Arizona overpaid for Hall. Miller is younger, more physical, can play centre, can kill penalties and is locked into a decent contract. Hall is injury prone and in certain aspects one-dimensional. Worst of all Hall is merely a rental at this point.
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I will reserve judgement until Olli is given the chance to partner with Tanev. I have not watched Olli play, so I don't know what his D game is like. Is his foot speed slow? Does he have trouble positioning his body for board play? How is his gap control? How is his stick checking? Does he exhibit high D zone IQ or does he make dumb plays like a lot of young D's?
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We also had a top D prospect die on us....
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My updated opinion on the losing streak in point form: - The core players are not ready to lead this team into contending, they need more time to develop, opinions may defer as to whether the Miller trade is justified in order to help the core players develop properly. If we have Mcdavid and Draisaitl instead of Pettersson and Boeser, I would be very surprised if we do not get into the Stanley Cup Finals in May - NHL is a super stars league at least during the 82 games regular season, if you want your team to do well during the regular season, we better see your core players in the top 10-15 ranking of players - Canucks are not very good in breakaways, 2 on 1, 3 on 2 rushes. This may indicate a lack skill. Perhaps more drills during practice can improve the percentages. -Canucks are scoring quite a bit of garbage goals but not many pretty ones. In regular season this indicates a lack of talent. However I prefer this due to the tight checking nature of the playoffs and I think all you need to do is to squeeze into the playoffs rather than dominating the regular season. - My criticism of Travis Green is that he is not Barry Trotz, other than this, Travis is a good coach - My personal bias is that I keep telling fans of every team that going through adversity and a challenging stretch is good in the long run if your core players are young. A team that is ready to lose some games and survive 7 games rounds, and 4 rounds of playoffs is preferable to a team that expects domination and gets frustrated - I would not mind Canucks miss the playoffs this season and get some draft lottery luck
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Don Cherry is a great guy but a terrible hockey commentator and a terrible communicator. His employer knew this type of thing was gonna happen and yet still hired him.
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My biases: - I like point form posts - I do not rave over Canucks' prospects like many fans here do - I did not post how incredible our team was just a week and a half ago because they were overachieving My opinion on the losing streak so far: - This league becomes tougher to score on as the season moves along, if you think this is bad wait for March 2020 - Canucks is a hard working team with above average possession and zone play numbers as well as above average talent level, that is provided there are no significant injuries - Goal tending is still good during the losing streak - D is OK during the losing streak, it is still preferable compared to last year's D core - Many forwards exhibit hard work, but with terrible finish. The player that I am very disappointed with is Josh Leivo. His shot is gone. He has trouble receiving routine passes from his line mates. I expected him to take another step this year. - When the scoring dries up the correct identity for the Canucks is the St. Louis brand of grinding, tight checking hockey. The Canucks should seriously consider more of a trapping game. They do not have the talent to score a bunch on a game to game basis. They do have more talent than Arizona and are comparable to NY Islanders. Travis Green needs to demonstrate that he is capable of adjusting the team's play style on the fly. He has the personnel to do it with. The Canucks have a lot of big, fast and fairly skilled forwards. - Recall that Alain Vigneault's Canucks went through a terrible stretch, Gillis did not fire him. The team developed into a contender in the following season.
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It would be ideal for Pettersson to have a quicker more elusive release. This is what McDavid excels at. Pettersson should also work on quicker start-stop which should give him more space.
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Going back to my previous comments above, Pettersson's dominance level is picking up and he is on his way joining this exclusive club by the end of this season. His shooting percentage and minutes played per game are both average and therefore statistically sustainable. He is currently #7 for P/game, and yet he took less shots than every other player ahead of him. If he shoots more, his production is expected to increase. I am very biased towards statistical regression. The most amazing thing about Pettersson so far is that none of his stats should really regress. Last year, his shooting % was exceedingly high early in the season and therefore his late season slump was predictable. In fact, I expect him to pick up his goal scoring rest of this season as the number of his shots approaches the mean. Unlike many fans, I decline to be overly excited for our prospects and young players. At this moment however, based on the assumption of normal distribution, Elias Pettersson is statistically amazing.
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In scouting reports, you hear people say that Quinn Hughes' skating and edge work are elite, Boeser's release is quick and his shot is accurate, E.P.'s hockey IQ and visions are exceptional. I hear people say that Vasily is skilled, but nothing in particular. I would have to agree that he is a skilled player, but his most outstanding feature is his on ice compete level.
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Why do discussions have to be black and white? Why can't a player be skilled in the sense that he was picked in the 1st round but not particularly skilled compared to his peers on the very top of 2019 draft?
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My concern is exactly based on lack of information about his personal life off the ice. I do not know what he is like off the ice. I understand that some of you have hang around this forum for some time and is therefore sensitive to what others say. I am merely discussing this player as a layman. I am not asserting what he will or will not become. I like the pick and support it even though Caufield was available at #10. My concerns with Vasily is far less than my concerns with Caufield. I am just not sold on Caufiled and his stats.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGBZjQj73gM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1g1bwApB1hY I agree with the Youtuber that at #10 Vancouver could have picked someone with more skill, talent and higher ceiling. Where I reserve my judgement is the effect of hard work on post-draft development. Brian Burke admitted several times that Calgary did not rank Horvat very high, but with hard work Horvat impressed his skating and raised his potential and his ceiling. All players drafted in the first 2 rounds have a great level of skill. Vasily's skill is comparable but not particularly impressive in his peer group. This is part of the reason that his stats have been questioned.
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By dominate I mean a player who can single-handedly win the game for you: - Leon Draisaitl; - Connor Mcdavid; - David Patrnak - Alex Ovechkin - Jack Eichel