GoldenAlien
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2018-19 Utica Comets Thread
GoldenAlien replied to stonecoldstevebernier's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
This is comparing apples to oranges. Nic Petan has better AHL numbers than Alex Tuch. Are you saying you wouldn't trade Petan for Tuch? Oh yes, GMs around the league are just rolling on the floor laughing about which AHL team Sam Gagner is playing on. I wouldn't bet on it. The Isles' lease in Bridgeport runs through 2021, and their co-owner publicly promised to invest more in Bridgeport if their new arena gets approved. “We equally feel the same way about Bridgeport,” Ledecky said Thursday by phone. “The Islanders and Sound Tigers are all-in on Bridgeport, subject to Belmont Park proceeding.” That, said Ledecky, would include improvements to the team’s dressing-room complex along the lines of the multimillion-dollar renovation to the Islanders’ practice facility, Northwell Health Ice Center in East Meadow, N.Y. “We’re really focused on Belmont Park being our permanent home and, in turn, Bridgeport being our permanent home for the Sound Tigers,” Ledecky said. Some work was done at Webster Bank Arena this past summer. The Sound Tigers’ dressing room received new carpeting, some new photos and logos and links to the team’s past. The coaches’ and equipment manager’s offices also got work, and the gym got new flooring. This was from Dec 2017 and Ledecky reiterated the sentiments after Belmont was approved. Once Belmont Park is complete, it's more likely the Coliseum would get the Tigers if the Isles wanted to move. The branding potential is better, the arena and market is bigger, and it's much closer. In general, Bridgeport is ~60 miles from NYC and Hartford is ~115 miles. Utica is ~240 miles away, so there's no advantage in terms of convenience. The Rangers would likely be more interested in moving to Bridgeport if Isles move out, than they would be to Utica. Hartford averaged 4138 tickets/ game last season and Utica 3918 tickets. Obviously Hartford has a much bigger arena so the overall attendance is abysmal, but in terms of money a ticket is a ticket. If the Rangers aren't going to make substantially more money or have their prospects closer by, they might as well stay put, since their lease can last until 2023. The Northeast market has been thinned out a bit by teams moving their affiliates closer to the parent clubs, and if Seattle/ Las Vegas buys a team and relocate it, there would be even more options for AHL cities, if the Rangers/ Isles really wanted to move. The whole thing with Leipsic/ Carcone/ Leivo comes down to potential. It's pretty simple -- if you know something isn't going to work, and you have an option to get something that might work, you go for it 100% of the time. Why ever hold onto guaranteed failure? We know what we have in Carcone, and he's not an NHL player. Guys like Palmu, Jasek, Dahlen etc may never play a game in the NHL. But they could become good players. Even if there's a 90% chance that they'll be back in Europe within 2 years, that's still better than someone who is 100% not in our future plans. Our other trading chips still have a chance to turn out better than Carcone did, even if it's a 1% chance that's still better than 0%. Maybe Leivo turns out to be Burrows, maybe he's on waivers by Christmas. Doesn't really matter since the one game he already played for us is one more game than Carcone ever would've. At the end of the day, Toronto needed to dump a roster spot and Canucks wanted to send back a contract. I doubt TOR wants to get back a multi-year contract, and the only players with expiring contracts on the farm were Gaunce, Kero, Boucher, Archibald, McEneny, Demko and Carcone. Not hard to see who is the worst of that bunch. -
Gaunce's problem, like many middling skaters, was never top end speed, which is probably the least important aspect in an actual game. His problem is explosiveness. Someone like Virtanen can go from standstill to top speed in a second. He can be a step behind you and blow past you in two steps. When's the last time Gaunce just outright blew past someone (and not while they're caught flat footed)? Top end speed only matters if you can pull away from someone. Otherwise by the time you get to your top speed the other player has already recovered/ adjusted position, or the play has already transpired. The other part of skating, agility and mobility, is also not Gaunce's strong suit. What makes guys like Pettersson (and even more so, Skinner) special isn't their top end speed. It's their ability to start and stop, pivot and turn on a dime. Their ability to shift, weave, dodge and change directions. How often is Gaunce shifty enough to slip through a check, or lose a checker by using stops and pivots? These singular exercises often showcase skills that aren't reflective of real world usage. George Parros, he of 18 career NHL goals, used to be a star at the Ducks' skills competition: He beat out guys like Perry and Selanne. Would you say that Parros was a better shooter than Perry? Gaunce isn't a bad skater, but he's not a great one either. You could say he's good for his size, but he's no Hansen, who was an A+ skater in his prime.
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Kind of curious how the AHL came up with this -- for example, the Lightning had 25 AHL grads on an opening night roster of 23? Off the top of my head, Stamkos, Hedman and Point jumped straight to the NHL, there may be others. But that makes their opening night roster at least 28 players... And do players like Larkin count? He played in the AHL for a few games after his college season ended, but went straight to the NHL after. There are also CHL prospects who played games with the AHL after their junior seasons ended, but went straight to the NHL when they turned pro. What about someone like Stecher, who played 4 games in the AHL (or Gaudette if he never returns)? Is that a grad? Seems a bit disingenuous to include them, I doubt Stecher would've turned out any differently had he just sat in the press box in the NHL for 4 games. Anyways, not doubting that AHL is a development path that many take, the numbers just feel a bit goosed... which is a pet peeve of mine.
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MVP! MVP! MVP!
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2018-19 Utica Comets Thread
GoldenAlien replied to stonecoldstevebernier's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Right, development is more art than science, and not too long ago, having your own AHL team was more a luxury than a necessity, let alone having an AHL team nearby. To @Connor comet 's point, I don't think the Canucks should relocate at this juncture -- a realignment needs to happen to add a team in the Pacific Northwest and it doesn't sound like the Canucks have a concrete arena offer on the table. If it was a Chicago Wolves situation I'd see the urgency to get out ASAP, but there's no need to make some mad dash just to get out of Utica. Seattle may or may not have its own AHL team right away -- they could try some sharing arrangement like the Blues did when the Knights entered the league. I think long term, there probably will be another AHL team in Washington/ Oregon, and maybe even one in Northern California/ Nevada, if the Knights buy their own team and move it to say, Reno. I think the real holdup here is the Seattle team is aiming to play in 2020, which is just one more season after this one ends. The Canucks probably prefer to renew one year with the option to extend, but the Comets would want more commitment. -
2018-19 Utica Comets Thread
GoldenAlien replied to stonecoldstevebernier's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
1. Virtanen, unfortunately, did mostly develop in Vancouver. Unfortunate, because I think he should've been sent back to juniors then gone straight to the AHL, but that's neither here nor there. The Marlies seem to have no trouble developing players in the Toronto bubble. 2. Maybe Melanson worked with Markstrom from time to time in Utica, but he was Canucks' full time goaltending coach through the 2016-2017 season. Markstrom was with the Canucks by 2015-2016. The bulk of his time with Melanson was in Vancouver. 3. Markstrom's best season was in Utica because it was his 5th AHL season. He was a blue chip prospect earlier on in his career, imagine what Demko's numbers would look like if he was still playing in the AHL in 2020-2021. 4. If practice time was the most important factor, then the NCAA should be far more successful in developing prospects than the CHL. 5. Attendance isn't counted by pure numbers, but rather percentage of capacity. The Heat, outside of its last year, was averaging around ~3,800 per game. The Comets, outside of its first year, has been averaging ~3,800-3,900 per game. Does that mean the Heat had pretty good attendance, or the Comets have bad attendance? Neither, because the Abbotsford Centre sits 7,000. If you have 3,800 people in there, it's almost half empty, while if 3,800 people were at the Aud, it's basically full. The Rabobank Arena, where the Condors play, sits 8,800. Averaging 4,800 means it's less than 55% full. That would be like the Rogers Arena averaging less than 10,400 per game. That's awful. -
The origin of #ShotgunJake: https://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/shotgunjake-is-the-meme-we-needed-for-this-canucks-season-1.23452663
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2018-19 Utica Comets Thread
GoldenAlien replied to stonecoldstevebernier's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
I don't think management cares much about viewership, you don't make money off of your AHL team. I doubt people in Bakersfield, CA are lining up to watch Oilers prospects. It's more about access and synergy. Imagine if Cloutier can work with Demko every week, and Clark can go see him play whenever. Or Glenn go runs drills with the prospects every month, and Takahashi sets up workouts for them. Manny can drop by and work with the young centres one-on-one. Skating consultants, nutritionists, etc., can all be shared. Of course, AHL teams have trainers too, but you don't get to work for an NHL team unless you're the best in the business. To have NHL level resources available to these kids is a definite advantage. Our management and coaching staff can also watch games on a regular basis and give feedback on exactly what they want to see if the prospect wants a call up. Green would be more familiar with a prospect's strengths and weaknesses before they're slotted into the lineup. Do those advantages make up for the more arduous schedule? Hard to say, but there's a reason that NHL teams are trending towards having their farm teams closer to home. -
I think part of it is also the need to make later picks make up for earlier misses. As in, it's fine that Virtanen is closer to a 30pt player than a 50pt player, because we have Virtanen AND Dahlen! A much more complimentary combo than Nylander/ Ehlers and Dahlen. If Kucherov, a #58 pick, could be a 100pt player, why can't Dahlen be a 60pt player? The reality is, if you went for G. Reinhart instead of Reilly, you can't count on Rathbone to make up the difference.
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According to TSN's analysis of drafts 1990 through 2014, as of 2018, 32% to 39% of players picked in the #32 to #56 range have played at least 100 games in the NHL. Only 9% to 13% played as a top 6 forward, a top 4 defenseman, or a #1 goalie. Which means of Dahlen, Lind and Gadjovich, if one manages to play 2 full seasons in the NHL, we're basically on track. If one of the three becomes a top 6 player, we've beaten the odds, and if one plays as top 6 and another plays a couple seasons in any role, we've hit it out of the park. It's unreasonable to expect every good prospect to turn into a top six or middle six player. The reality is most picked outside of the first round are lucky to have Boucher's career. Which is why FA signings are necessary. Most of our prospects, outside of marquee picks like Pettersson or Hughes, will never make it as far as Beagle or Roussel. I'm not down on these guys, I just think if we get one 40pt player and one 20pt player out of these three it should be a cause for celebration, not disappointment.
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2018-19 Utica Comets Thread
GoldenAlien replied to stonecoldstevebernier's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Why can't Baertschi be an example? I'm referring to types of players that these prospects can turn into, in terms of impact and/or career length. It doesn't matter if Baertschi scored 3 PPG in the AHL, he's a 40pt tweener in the NHL, and that absolutely can be Dahlen's career. Baertschi scoring 17pts in 19GP versus 26pts in 32GP makes no difference -- he was better than Teravainen in their respective rookie AHL seasons. The point is you're not accounting for the difference in draft position (between Dahlen and Baertschi) and difference in experience (jumping from WHL to AHL, vs coming over from Sweden). There's no evidence that Teravainen put no effort in the AHL initially. When he was first demoted, he said: "I need to be positive, just have fun here," Teravainen said. "If I'm just here and do not want to be here and not want to play here, it's not going to be good for me. I'm not going to play good then. If I want to play with the Blackhawks this season, I need to play good here and have really good games here. My focus needs to be there." Then when he was called up, then demoted again: Teravainen says he’ll continue to put the work in to hopefully get back to where he wants to be, in the NHL. But for now, he’s focused on helping the Rockford IceHogs win the AHL MidWest division. “We need some points. It’s really tight right now in this league. Every night it’s a battle for points.” He later got frustrated by the lack of opportunity in Chicago, but it's not accurate to say he never put in any effort in the AHL. Similarly, Baertschi became frustrated with the lack of opportunity in Calgary, and has had many of the same criticism -- a perimeter game, lack of commitment to two way play -- as Teravainen. His relationship with Calgary also soured, and you know the rest of the story. But that's not really the point. The point is based on their draft position, Dahlen has a third of chance as Baertschi to become a top 6 player; therefore, he is inherently more of a project. You can't take a 13th overall pick who played in NA for two years, and use his first AHL season as proof that a 42nd overall pick making the jump to NA for the first time won't ever become a similar type of player. I'm not sure what the argument is here. Do you think it's unusual that 2nd round picks need a bit more time to find their game than 1st round picks? Do you think there shouldn't be an adjustment period for players who have spent their entire lives playing on international sized rinks? -
Can't quite figure out who you're talking about here... Mark Scheifele? He's 6'3", 207lbs. He was lanky at Madden's age, but always had the frame to become a big centre.
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2018-19 Utica Comets Thread
GoldenAlien replied to stonecoldstevebernier's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
1. Baertschi isn't comparable to "these guys." Lind is projected to be 6'1" pest who's skilled enough to make plays and score, Gadjovich is a 6'2" power forward who makes his living in front of the net. The only one who may become similar to Baertschi is Dahlen, and there are a couple key differences here. First, Baertschi was a 13th overall pick. Dahlen was a 42nd overall pick. We're not talking about 29th and 32nd here. Scott Cullen does an analysis of draft pick value for TSN before every draft, based on 15 years of draft data. For 2018, his chart shows 72% of players picked at 13th play at least 100 NHL games, and 36% play as top 6 forward/ top 4 D/ #1 goalie. But for picks 42nd to 46th, 39.2% play at least 100 NHL games, and 12.8% play as top 6 F/ top 4 D/ 1 G. Considering Dahlen's probability of playing top 6 is only a bit more than a third of Baertschi's, the fact that he's considered to have top 6 potential is already a testament to his performance since the draft. I'm not saying draft position is everything -- certainly, Gaudreau is better than Schroeder -- but players are picked earlier because they're less of a project. 2. Baertschi played two years in the WHL before turning pro. He did not need to adjust to a different playing style or rink. That's a pretty significant difference. His 26pts in 32GP gives him 0.81 PPG. Teravainen, at the same age, put up 25pts in 39GP, which is 0.64 PPG. Teravainen scored 64pts last season. Would you say Baertschi is better than Teravainen now or has a higher ceiling? -
2018-19 Utica Comets Thread
GoldenAlien replied to stonecoldstevebernier's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
I think people often mistake good prospects with blue chip prospects. Are there players who jump from European leagues or juniors and immediately tear up the AHL? Sure. Pastrnak had 24pts in 36GP in Allsvenskan in his draft year -- came over and scored 28pts in 25GP in Providence before securing a spot with the Bruins. Nylander had 32pts in 37GP after he jumped over from the SHL midseason, then 45pts in 38GP before making the Leafs. Couture scored 53pts in 42GP as an AHL rookie, and ended the season with the Sharks. It's not some impossible task, but the key here is these are blue chip prospects. The type that projects as perennial 60-70pt players with All-Star potential. The forwards we have are good prospects who have performed or even outperformed their draft status -- second rounders in Dahlen (42nd), Lind (33rd), Gadjovich (55th), and sixth rounders in Jasek (174th) and Palmu (181st). There's a reason why Pettersson was picked 5th while these guys were passed by every GM in the first round. Doesn't mean they're bad prospects, far from it -- but these are the type of picks that turn into Burrows, Hansen, Grabner, Baertschi (not saying playing style, just impact/ career length). This is actually fantastic outcome for where they're picked -- but everyone's always hoping for the next Datsyuk, Benn and Gaudreau, so if a second round pick turns into a 40pt tweener it somehow becomes a gigantic disappointment. It was easy to overhype Dahlen because of his connection to Pettersson and the desire to have a new Swedish duo, but Pettersson was the best U20 player in the SHL ever. These two were never at the same starting point. It wasn't like when Daniel was considered to be better than Henrik in 1999. A more reasonable trajectory for Dahlen is probably like Teravainen or Kapanen. Teravainen had 25pts in 39GP in his first AHL season, then made the NHL and scored 35pts in 78GP. Kapanen had 25pts in 44GP in his first AHL season, 43pts in 43GP in his second, then split the next season between the NHL and AHL (9pts in 38GP with the Leafs), before making it full time. Both these guys were first round picks and jumped over to North America earlier (Teravainen at 20 and Kapanen at 19). Dahlen would've been on a similar timeline except he got mono last year (he's turning 21 this December). Of course, there's always a chance Dahlen turns out like Pulkkinen, dominant at every level but the NHL and back in Europe by 26. But we were giving up an almost-retired Burrows. If he wasn't a project and there weren't risk involved we never would've gotten him. -
Also accelerated. Late birthdays who are high end talents tend to fast track high school. The USHL and other junior leagues do go by birth years, so an October 2002 birthday would be starting their first USHL season in 2018, not 2019. Guys like Eichel have already played two years in the USHL/ USDP by their draft year, if they didn't accelerate, their draft year would be a third year in a junior A league, which is not ideal. Every once in a while, you do have younger guys who go to college early -- Habs' Ryan Poehling was a 1999 birthday but started at St. Cloud in 2016. He had twin brothers already playing there though, IIRC a part of his motivation is to play with them.
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Both Eichel and Demko accelerated to go to college early -- Demko said he had to finish high school over the summer online. American school year cutoff is also September, so these guys with late birthdays don't graduate early. If you were born in October 1999, you'd be in the same class as people born in August 2000. I think Quinn didn't have to accelerate though... with all those years he spent in Toronto, he probably enrolled according to his birth year, and therefore was a year ahead of his American counterparts.
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Another thing to keep in mind is Makar is a whole year older than Hughes -- he was born in October 1998 and Hughes was born in October 1999. At this stage in their careers, an entire year to train, get stronger, play more etc., is a lot. Imagine if someone played their D+1 in the Dub, then made the NHL at 19 years old, vs someone who played their D+1 and D+2 in the Dub, then made the NHL at 20. Even though both are NHL rookies, one would expect the older one to have an advantage.
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That was Hughes when he got food poisoning/ flu while at prospect camp.
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Thiessen seems to be settling in well. Of the 18 goalies who have played 4 games or more (teams have played 7-9 games so far), Thiessen is 8th in SVS% (.907) and 6th in GAA (2.54). He's also played in 7 of Dubuque's 8 games, and only one USHL goalie has played more than him. He's a rookie in the league and the USHL is a sizable step up from MJHL, it's promising to see that he's already one of the better starting goalies.
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2018-19 Utica Comets Thread
GoldenAlien replied to stonecoldstevebernier's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Would've liked to see MacEwen. Brings what Archie brings, but has been outscoring him and is a better skater. Plus a right hand shot and we're down one with Boeser out. Even if Leipsic slides in and the call up sits, the pay bump would've been a nice reward for his hard work and he gets a chance to practice with the team. -
2018-19 Utica Comets Thread
GoldenAlien replied to stonecoldstevebernier's topic in Prospects / Farm Team
Regarding the Comets' future, the Province just did an article: No extension has been signed, and the lease with the Aud will expire at the end of the season. Canucks can sign an extension, but must decide by Jan. 1, 2019. https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/future-of-canucks-affiliation-with-utica-comets-still-under-consideration Also from Utica's Ben Birnell: Also from Birnell: https://www.uticaod.com/sports/20181001/comets-continue-hockey-legacy -
This is a never ending discussion because the two sides are not actually talking about the same thing. People who are defending the Gagner move are talking about Gagner. Every single stat and real life example suggest that Sam Gagner will not make a lasting impact on the future of Canucks prospects. No one can bring up any evidence to dispel this point, because players like Gagner are simply not good enough to make anybody's career. But most people complaining about the Gagner move are not really talking about Gagner. They are: 1. Disgruntled Canucks fans who want to bash the merits of Bennings' FA signings, or performance overall. Had Gagner been sent to the Comets, it would've been "Benning paid $9 million to bump Gaudette to the fourth line!!" or "This will be Roussel next year!" There's also the classic throwing good money after bad -- people who want to salvage value from a situation beyond saving. If Gagner broke his leg, they'd still rather he rehab in Utica than in Toronto, since he could provide some intangibles to the locker room. The premise here is really that a Gagner working for the Canucks provides more value than a Gagner not working for the Canucks. By the same logic, even if he's stocking concession stands at the Aud, he's still doing more for the Canucks than playing on the Marlies. 2. Disgruntled Comets fans who take the loan as another sign that the Canucks treat their team as an afterthought. What infuriates them is Canucks' apparent unwillingness to help the Comets beyond what's necessary. The fact that the pantheon of offensive talent that is Mueller, Cracknell, Jooris and Greening knocked Gagner out of a centre spot is moot, as is Marlies' willingness to develop guys like Timashov and Bracco with career fourth liners. They'd have no problem if Gagner made the Comets but pushed out Lind, or if he was used to centre Archibald and Boucher and never shared the ice with a young winger. It's really the desire to see better Comets, masquerading as concern for Canucks prospects. Nobody, nobody believes that Sam Gagner is the key to transforming Lukas Jasek into David Pastrnak. Where someone like him plays is inconsequential to any NHL franchise; it's just the perfect opening for people to air their grievances.
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For those still bemoaning the Gagner move... Guess who beat out Sam the Saviour for centre -- Chris Mueller, who last played 7 games in the NHL in 2014-2015. How do we know Gagner wouldn't have been put on Kero or Gaudette's wing and pushed out one of our young wingers? Apparently, Toronto thinks Josh Jooris would be a better playmaker for Bracco than Gagner. Who would've thought. But then again, maybe they've just ruined Bracco by pairing him with such an unskilled centre.