Boudrias
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Everything posted by Boudrias
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My wife has a cousin who farms in Saskatchewan. When the boom was going on in the patch he resented the rich oil patch workers coming home and bidding up land prices as they built their rural getaways. You probably realize the 'nuts & bolts' nature of farming. What our cousin now says is that these oil people have brought venture capital and tech know how to the farm. A lot of farming tech resulted. A great story.
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
NA going back to work. More stimulus and a possible rate cut. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
Up $2/SH on my RDS buy. WTI took a big hit the other day and RDS actually went up. Although I like RDS investment in alternative energy this is a trade not a LTH. I prefer to hold BEP.U for that purpose. The feds and provinces will add +$250 billion to their debt in this C-19 battle. I don't disagree with the need but would have liked stricter oversight on who got the money and on what terms. That said I can understand the need for speed. Yes I dwell on debt. We will come out of this with both the feds and the provinces at + $1 trillion or $2 trillion in total. These totals don't include corporate or consumer debt. Prior to C-19 the Canadian growth rate was what +1%. Half the population was in financial trouble. Tell me where the growth will come from to finance this debt? IMHO the cost of carrying this debt will escalate. How does Canada fund its trade deficit? Many scary questions that do not get asked by our government owned media. Currently 24.5% of my portfolio is in USD$. My target was 25%. I am revising that up to 40%. Anytime the CDN$ drops below 1.40 I buy USD$. Stocks on my Canadian side have to have the majority of their business outside of Canada or they are not LTH's. Ideally they pay their dividends in USD$. Still like the Brookfield companies as they pay divs in USD$ and are global. Liquidity is a big issue and the TSX often doesn't have it. NYSX does. -
Malcolm Gladwell video on the G&M kinda of put the C-19 virus in perspective. He thinks the idea that isolation will be effective long term will not stand up. The majority of the people will get this virus. I think people will go back to work. The critical concern is testing capacity to ensure those who do have the virus can be isolated. Ortho announced yesterday that they will be able to antibody test 2 million per day by the end of May. Their equipment is in over 1000 USA hospitals. Association of American Physicians & Surgeons said 2333 patients were treated with hydroxychloroquine with 91.6% showing clinical improvement. China, France, Australia and USA are using the drug. Not a long term answer for the vast numbers.
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Over 750 Iranians died from drinking methanol in a misguided idea that it would kill the C-19 virus. ???
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
Cannot see that. Inflation always hurts the poor the worst. Food, clothing and shelter all increase in cost and they have little to no cushion. Debt has to be fixed mortgages. Used to be that inflation would generate wage increases but I'm not confident that will be the case this time around. It could easily accelerate automation. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
My biggest concern is global debt and Canadian debt in particular. This debt should be massively inflationary. Before that hits deflation should happen. Demographic is working against us and the consumer has no money. Where will the demand come from? -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
Slight strengthening in the CDN$ this morning. Buy a little USD$. I want at least 25% in USD$. I see Gord Reid of Goodreid Investments is now over 60% USD$. -
Maybe you should ask how our federal government will continue to function when; the CDN$ drops to 0.50 cents, 33% of federal debt is held by foreigners, CDN creditworthiness is dropped, when federal debt exceeds $1 trillion and combined provincial debt exceeds $1 trillion as well? CDN economy is primarily price takers as demonstrated by the oil industry. Where will the foreign exchange come from to pay for food imports and pay for debt service which is primarily in USD$? We have a goof running the country who hasn't got the PPE or testing in place to restart an economy that is in desperate shape. Canadians should be very concerned.
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
I would start with Google. A lot of companies have payout records on their website. I subscribe to the G&M investor section which has a lot of info. Yahoo Finance is free I think. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
David Rosenberg predicted a $0.60 cent a few days ago and is now saying it could flirt with $0.50. On Dec. 31st it was 0.77 cents. Important because Canada is a net importer, especially since energy has tanked. About 33% of Canada's federal debt is funded by foreigners. I don't know how much provincial debt is foreign. All very important because that debt and interest is usually serviced in USD. Highly likely Canada's credit rating will be lowered. One has to ponder if foreign lenders will continue to lend and what the cost will be. Canadian government is spending massive amounts of money to citizens and industry trying to keep everyone whole in anticipation of restarting the economy. One can also wonder how quickly that will happen. Why gold? Historically it is because it is a scarce metal which retains value. Bitcoin usurps that role but when push comes to shove I suspect gold will dominate once again. If the supply chain breaks down then the basics of life will definitely have value. Gold and jewelry saved a lot of people in WW II. No doubt that an acreage with chickens and a cow might be invaluable. -
I think the provinces and feds have to have a different attitude towards finite resources like oils and minerals. What are their fair value and how can they contribute towards national goals. What I suggest is that much of that revenue should not be going to social need. It should be invested in diversification that will in return provide revenue for social needs. Unfortunately the debt situation in Canad will probably preclude any such planning.
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Watched that briefing this morning. Very informative. Interesting that they were talking about the California experience. Their point about going to Home Depot but not the park across the street was very pointed. It appears the self isolation was a political decision which they did not disagree with as the virus first appeared. What they are questioning is continued isolation as stats are saying it is not effective. Distancing still appropriate.
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
Boomers are doing what they were told. Establishing a stream of revenue independent of a wage was needed as pensions were not part of their life. I don't believe that boomers are the sole reason for stock overvaluation. Government overspending and QE have driven income seekers out of bonds and into higher risk assets like stocks. It has impacted the way pensions invest as they have done the same thing and increased risk to get the yields they need to fund payouts. This goes beyond pensions as the CPP invests in markets as well. So the need for income goes beyond boomers. I highly doubt who is in power, boomers or milennials, will impact the fundamental economics. What I find disturbing are people on a company pension or government pension who think they are isolated from equity markets. Most decidedly not true. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
Liked the video, thanks. Been a dividend investor for many years. Overweight gold. Still hold USA tech for the growth but obviously at risk. -
The contribution the energy industry has made to Canada is very underappreciated by the majority of Canadians. My view of the industry is that it could have provided the capital needed to chart a more independent economic future. To me this is a national security issue. I don't think the politicians or the industry have done a very good job in outlining the importance of this industry to how Canada will fund its future.
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
I have owned ENB for years. My full weighting in a stock is 5% but I keep ENB at 3.5% because of the hydrocarbon exposure. Line 3 & 5 will get done and they still have a decent book of capital projects. I also own TRP. Debt can always become an issue if debt markets cease up. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
I wasn't even talking about Encana or any specific company for that matter. Yes, I blame JT for a lot of the energy industry problems. The fact that you do not doesn't surprise me. Justin could take a dump in your Corn Flakes and you would twist a positive outlook. -
[SIGNING] Goldobin signs with CSKA Moskow
Boudrias replied to Beefcake's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I watched the 2015 WJC again the other night. Goldy played well but hit the crossbar on a open net. Sound familiar? Losing by a goal with 2 1/2 minutes left in the 3rd, Goldy never saw the ice. I appreciated that he stuck it out and tried to adjust his game to fit the NHL. In his heart I think he felt he had to seek the open ice and not engage physically to be effective. His puck battle was never quite good enough. Wish him well in the KHL. -
I see people are taking bathes with bleach added. Theory being that it will enter the body thru the skin. I had to put a carbon filter on our house water when we got town water as my wife couldn't handle the chlorine.
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
I own the B shares. Pipeline issues is the biggest issue. It is affecting capital spending plans. Overseas pays in USD. I don't know the detail of his talks. What many Canadians don't realize is the number of high tech oil workers who have moved to Dallas and Houston. Leduc had a industry financed research center that developed leading edge tech which is used around the world. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
RDS.B has a UK dividend which has no with holding tax which the Dutch did have with the RDS.A. It was supposed to be done away with in 2019 as the Dutch were dropping their tax. The USA with holds 15% on dividends but that is recoverable when taxes are filed. I feel good about this holding but early on yet. I am expecting a double within 1 to 1 1/2 years. My big adventure in oil is that I did not sell SDX Energy when it relocated to the LON exchange over a year ago. Now trades in pounds. Cost for a trade would be roughly $250. Just got a note this morning that they tapped another gas well in Egypt. Some C-19 shut ins but that should be short lived. Gas & oil in Egypt and gas in Moracco. My nephew says he isn't going back northern BC to drill gas when C-19 shutdown ends. Fed up with the feds. He is a high end driller and will head to Saudi Arabia to work. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
Boudrias replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
This is in a cash account so income is fully taxed by RCA. There is a 15% with holding by the USA but that is recovered when you file your taxes. No dividend tax credit like CDN stocks. Full tax hit. -
People have to realize that the vast majority of politicians are in it for their own benefit #1. If they can help someone else in the process so be it. That was demonstrated to me very clearly when we had a Reform nomination in our riding after our previous campaign clearly showed we would win the next election. A real grassroots effort that had a riding association of very informed people. The candidates who came out for the nomination included a ex-MLA who thought he could smooth talk himself into the nomination. Sleezy. It didn't work. The anti Trumpers don't seem to want to recognize that Trump was appealing to Americans hurt by their inability to meet their financial needs just like Sanders. People will judge him and either re-elect or defeat him. Pretty straight forward.